https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=588764
A thread about pivot point trading. The thread is really informative. For example, below points are handy (that I got from that thread). I suggest to put the indicators in an empty chart. Davit says: combine pivots with low ADR-pairs (UC AC NC EA AU GU NU AN EU)(M15/30 chart, tp: 50-100)(weekly pivot as equilibrium)(if ADR>100, then reversal signal)
FYI:
Pivot is based on broker time start and that varies from broker to broker.My broker is NY based hence if you are in that time zone no need to change anything however if you live outside this zone you need to adjust the pivot to match mine.10pips or less Pivot difference is acceptable and normal.Its a zone after all. In order to move the pivots you need to take these steps.
Get into indy settings. Set brokers candle to false. This is the key to being able adjust the pivots up and down
'Choose H1 start candle': 2016 06 19 05:00
'Choose H1 finish candle': 2016 06 24 05:00......"See post 15"
(5.00 a.m. may not work on your chart so try different hours till pivots line up).
Fiddle with the hour on your 'Choose H1 start candle/finish' settings to get it to line up with my pivots. When you find the corresponding hour, set the start candle and finish candle to the exact same hour. Once adjusted save as template and use that on every pair.
Updated Pivot indi just change time zone and broker candle false
should work wherever you live
Question...hello Can you please tell me why did you shorted both EC and GC before news ?
Answer...Both made weekly highs so the Edge was on my side on downside and have been tracking Canadian economy and oil for years more familiar with CAD. I have traded CAD more then any other currency and its almost intuitive.Why I always bought CAD against NZD and AUD that's always been my preference for years.
I tell you more, when I started with Davit, right before news He sold UJ at R61, on strong up trend. And like Magic price reversed. I was blown away. Later I learned there is 100% correlation between price location according to pivots and fundamentals.
First page" the faster price reached 61-100 , more likely it will go into correction "
1) As price travels progressively away from weekly pivot it becomes more likely to go into correction.
2) 61 S/R key zone 78R/S is Scott Carney's last chance for reversal (spikes stops taken before reversal)
3) 100R/S another major zone. Should price smash 100 S/R then you are in strong trend supported by fundamentals.
1. Read page 1.
2. Read page 1 again.
3. Use his template and just post here with his template.
4. Use the search box before asking questions.
5. Go over the weekly calendar and try to anticipate what will happen, and which pairs are best left alone.
the R138 level is clearly an overextended trend
don't subscribe to typical bookish mentally that if previous H4 is bear then assumption should be another bear candle.This is very wrong way to look at the markets.Markets are in constant motion and within 1 H4 candle price can move opposite over 100pips against previous candle so its not about previous candles but where price is in relative to pivots.In simple terms Location is what is important.
I trade 15-30min charts however bigger works as well.
TDI is our friend.When price hit major pivots we wait for TDI to turn thus confirm the move. Sharp angles important when its almost horizontal PA is weak or consolidating thus avoid trading.PA is king always!
STOP LOSS
1 Decide how much each swing is worth example $500
2. Divide $500 into mini lots for multiple entries example .50c a pip gives 1000 pip distance
3. This allows averaging in orders as seen fit irregardless if previous orders are in red
4. Orders are placed as long as reason for trade is still valid
5. If conditions change loss is taken since orders are not placed all at once this allows smaller loss
Swings
Each Swing investment $500 (example yours could be anything)
Swing is taken as loss once -$500 is reached
There are no exceptions.No running red beyond $500
Orders broken down into mini lots that satisfies each swing consist of 10-15 trades
My budget for this is 2-3% of account risk say $500 for example.I then enter trades on mini lots and as long as my 500 is not consumed on DD and I am still confident of my trade I stay on it.I may choose to get out early but most times my SL is predetermined.This allows me to cast a wider net. So my 10mini lots can cover 50pip distance hence capture better RR
There is advantage to trade this way.Should PA go against you and you no longer like the trade you can get out by fraction of lot invested hence your loss is minimal instead of traditional 1 trade 1lot per trade when if wrong loss is substantially higher.
Numbers posted are for examples only
Note very important this system does not work best with hyper pairs that usually have over 120pip ADR like GJ GA GN etc
From numerous trial and errors low ADR pairs fits the best in my method
Pairs I trade most often......UC AC NC EA AU GU NU AN EU
TDI lines green crossing the black 15-30min chart and Price action agreeing
Its important to understand that pivots are zones and not exact number.Often price can fluctuate 10-20pips before turning.
Guys who pay attention look at Price action follow fundemetal news cut losses early are all winning attributes which contribute to having an edge.Nothing comes without effort.
depending how EU and GU doing. EG is combination movement of both.
Pivot is just a road map.PA is king.
The 0.786 is a vital Fibonacci number because it is often the last chance reversal area before retesting the original price point.
Be cognoscente of news which many systems just ignore.Its vital because I trade swings! (one of the reasons I have news feed on my template)
lowest TF I trade is 15min. 5min is scalping zone which is totally different mindset
I trade swings and they are swings on Down trend and uptrend.For me its all about the swing. Trend can change 100+pips in 4 hours opposite of previous 4 hrs and same on daily.Important to understand is where most turns likely to occur with the help of pivots and with TDI as confirmation you got a real edge.
correct.I look 30min cross mostly but have taken 15min as well but nothing smaller.......PA is king
My base TF is 30min but when I see a weakness I jumped on it even on 15min but PA must be in good zone 61+ unless its ranging.Ranging pairs tend bounce from 38 to 38
I don't trade news.Prefer to be out most times specially NFP.One usually finds good opportunities after. I do look for divergence but it has been my experience that its hard trading meaning what looks Div on H1 may look very normal on H4 and nothing at all on D.I like dives that show same up to Daily.
Its not something I put great impoetrance.To me most important is looking at Price Action in zones.
How much you are comfortable risking because that defines everything.......
Super conservative 1-2% 10k is 100-200 dollars which equals .10- .20 mini account a pip
lets go with .2 as example
5 positions on a pair is 1 dollar a pip and 100 pip move nets you 100 dollars.Granting you don't have other pairs trading you made 1%
you do this 4-5 times successfully a month will net you 4-5% gain of account which is respectful
Personally I traded .5 lots since 5k account and never looked back but don't go by my example I risk more because to some extend I know more and I want greater gain a month. 5% gain a month is not doing it for me.I need to hit 10%+
position size is depends on experience and risk appetite but industry standard is 2% risk generally most common.
As you guys know I love range and when I trade range I always trade towards BO direction.
Once again its not about being all over the board. That's not efficient. Focus on swings! on few pairs and maximize the gains
Its important also recognizing good opertunity spots and hit them hard 61-100 zone ideal
great spots enter with greater force lesser spots less force
Fundamentally I am becoming more bearish on USD.Unemployment claims raising and job creation declining and there will be no June hike so anticipate further USD decline.
Guys who know me know that I love range trading. EG is in a range.
I usually don't trade UJ because of BOJ could and have intervened in the past and price can spike or dive very quickly.In my real account I don't see value trading the Yen.
80% of my trades are on UC and some on AC and EC rest on EU AU NU GU EG....I like the Cad because I can keep up with oil and Cad fundamentals.To me you only need 2-3pairs to reach your monthly goal.....I can build 10 trades on UC equaling trading 10 different pairs but my results would be better because I only need one swing to collect.
General guidelines to me is this
If you have less then 5years of experience then don't trade hyper crosses like GN GA EN GJ
Anything over 130 daily range is red herring to me.Its not about profits its about controlling risk profits take care themselves.
Mistake lot of rookies make is getting carried over by greed and trade crosses and pay dearly when wrong.
Slow study the way to build equity.
I find 5-10pip differentiation of pivots acceptable.They are zones not exact number at least how I trade it.
I mainly use swings tops and bottoms as exits and sometimes hang to see if there is more action in same direction.....So swings can be anywhere 50pips to 100 depending on pair.Any gains more then 50pips is reasonable profit.
Pivot trading is basically swing trading.
We take profits from any swing irregardless of "trend" most here at FF don't understand what trend is.
What they think trend most often are swings in range market.
70% forex is in a range.Traders often complain about "choppy markets" but seriously those are most profitable times.
Focus on swings and that's when pivots help comes in.
PA hits major pivots
A.I look for behavior price action mostly rejected candles tall tails 15min up 1hr
B.Price breaks I get in once TDI confirms it 15-30min. I don;t care about H4 or daily.I trade swings.Price can drop 100+pips in 4hrs hence previous H4 is nullified.
C Ride the trade to next pivot.
Hard answering you exactly but I'll try. EA is combination of AU and EU .AU making reasonable gains but EU is stuck at 1200 so that effects EA directly.
I watch how majors behave when trading crosses.Momentum has lot to do with it plus simple PA reading.
In most cases I don't trade from pivot
Correct I think of weekly pivot as equilibrium.When price runs away from it resistance becomes greater as further it travels.
I don't set hard stops but do have % when in DD I get out.
Just be mindful trading exotics spread on those are not favorable.
I follow PA once I am in I build positions.I never enter full lot.Break them up and average out so I get a better price overall.This is common on stock trading but not in forex. It's my way of controlling losses.Should PA go against me I can get out with 1/4 lot damage instead of full lot.I don't place hard SL but do have a threshold when I get out. ADR is just allowing you to see daily extremes better.Example if UC travels 100ADR last 20days and its at 110 then chances of correction is great. Usually late entries get crashed which in general is stupid money.
Scaling in to me is about controlling risk and that's my number 1 criteria.Noticed I didn't mention anything about profits. Focus on risk control and profits take care of themselves. Rookie traders think about profits, Pro traders think about managing risk.2 are very different way to see the markets.
GU tanks GN will tank 2x faster.This happens in general a lot. rejected candles and look left as well.
UC moves in conjunction with Oil.Oil drops UC goes up and reverse true.
Max just be mindful that Pivots are like road maps like "watch something might happen"
But its not guarantee that without correct PA trades will be successful.
I recommend you wait and watch 1st how PA reacts to pivot then take appropriate trade. Price can easily go though pivots specially when propelled by news.
Something you should ingrain in you as a trader.Never assume what price may do without it doing it 1st
This part is the heart of trading.We watch 1st then take action.
I allow room for DD
DD is not necessarily a bad thing as long as you know how much you are willing to let it accumulate.
DD for me is the stop loss.As long as its within reason I usually stay on course unless clearly PA is proving me wrong.This is one of the reasons I am a huge advocate of cost averaging and trading small lots.
2 pairs AC EC I always sell never buy.That's just me.Like Canadian dollar I guess.Not the levels I like to sell yet but not comfortable buying it either considering oil gains.......In basic terms in order for your longs on AC and EC to have legs crude must drop.
I recommend trading G crosses after 5yrs of trading experience or you will pay dearly by massive sudden spikes and erratic moves.
Stick with pairs that are less then 120 pip ADR
I treat My entries as badges as 1 trade consist of 4-6 average mini trades.....When I exit I closed them all....My average distance is 50-100pips which usually same distance PA travels from 1 pivot to another. When you look at the chart you know when to exit.
I also use limit orders in my advantage since I work 70hrs a week I have no time for perfect entries so I place limits at key zones and wait to see what happens. Got AN at 38S waiting...Would it dive again? Don't know.Does it hurt being there? no but should it trigger and bounce up you will be in profit without effort....I have collected thousands of pips using this technique over the years.
To me waiting is critical part of trading
To me its about following fundamentals and charts.I already stated lots of data coming out on Euro...hence rather stay out of it and catch the exhaustions.
I prefer not trade pairs that are clearly untradable specially in between pivots.
If you can collect 50-70% of the swing that's splendid.Never feel bad leaving money on table.
most what i DO IS SIMPLE BASIC STAFF.PA reading and pivots and TDI as supporting roles.That's it.Keep it simple
That's how one should see set ups.Watch behavior then strike.
When TDI is sharp 4 5 6 O'clock or 12 1-2 O'clock means there is good buying and selling...This is something its intuitive you look at TDI wave and can tell what's going on...When its flattering means move is exhausted and ranging...Best way to think about this is selling or buying speed.Faster price drops sharper the angle.....Don't overthink about this....Watch PA.
One thing to keep in mind about divergence.PA must agree
In general scheme of things NZD hurts the NZ economy if it appreciates too much.Much of the economy is dairy and agricultural based and strong NZD is not competitive specially in light of Aussie recent rate cut.
I don't really count pips I count $$...I set for example $500 1 batch of trades. I enter mini lots.As long as my 500 is not reached then it did not reach my SL......
Once again my SL is based on actual $$ not pip.As long as my batch of trades have not reached max Dd in terms of $$ then I let it run. Let me give you concrete example.....I was shorting UC from 129 and price went 31+ and I had over 200pip DD but in actual $$ it was only 20% of my intended lot to be traded on this pair.Then I Hummered rest from the swing top and made all DD back plus nice profit. I trade unorthodox style I learned over the years that 20-30pip SL is sucker move.It will get hit and you can be taken out even if direction is correct. I refined my style of trading that pivots allows best entries without huge DD.People who see the value of this thread will profit
My sL is part of my trading entries.Should PA overrun my budget for that trade I take the loss manually. I often take earlier if I think fundamentals shifting....Reason I can do this because I don't over trade.I trade mini lots.
don't trade the swissy.I don't even look at it.
I don't mark previous pivots...I just carry over and watch PA with new pivots.I try to simplify everything.....
In general movements of crosses is dictated by majors. GU gains up so will GJ.Should GU continue to decline GJ will decline as well.
Love range pairs best money making situation.Don't believe shit you read on trading books.Range trading is great $$...Trading books are always talking about "trend" and most cases are clueless what that is...You should have 2 different way approaching pairs.Trending requires larger SL and patience and range requires getting in and out on swings.
Question.....When am in profit and PA suddenly turns without getting to any S/R and begin to move against me and TDi crosses down. does that mean i have to close the trade and take whatever little profit i have on the table. or still hold on to see if the PA would turn back to the former???
Answer.....Your question is excellent and I am surprised nobody asked that here before.Its actually a simple solution-go higher time frame...1hr 4hr specially....If previous 4h is bull stay in it...Move SL to break even then let price do its thing.Once you are more then 20pip in profit start moving SL closer and closer to protect the profits.
Price always goes towards least resistance.That's the simple truth.
Thinking in terms of probabilities also helps remove the emotional risk of trading. Mark Douglas talks about the 5 Fundamental Truths, they are as follows:
1. Anything can happen
2. You dont need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
5. Every moment in the market is unique
Now my system is based upon simple observation that price hitting pivots away from weekly pivot will either break or retreat.That's my set of variables and given years of observation I came to conclude that price breaking 61R or 61S is less likely then going towards next level and rejection increases incrementally as price hits 78R/S and 100R/S....This is hard for people to get specially trend traders but simple fact is Elliot theory is real.Nothing goes in straight line....My system is based upon exploiting and profiting from swings.Its as simple as that....To me trends don't exit only swings matter.
Daily open is S/R it creates a bias.Its on my template for a reason.I always like to know DO and ADR distance from that line...If pair travels average 20days 72pips like NU and manages to travels 130pips in 1day from DO then probability of correction is great or you should be cautious of getting in on LATE party after the move is exhausted...I usually get in on beginning of the move rarely on tail end.
My budget for this is 2-3% of account risk say $500 for example.I then enter trades on mini lots and as long as my 500 is not consumed on DD and I am still confident of my trade I stay on it.I may choose to get out early but most times my SL is predetermined.This allows me to cast a wider net. So my 10mini lots can cover 50pip distance hence capture better RR...There is advantage to trade this way.Should PA go against you and you no longer like the trade you can get out by fraction of lot invested hence your loss is minimal instead of traditional 1 trade 1lot per trade when if wrong loss is substantially higher.
I Love AC, it's my favorite range pair....Don't buy AC always sell AC....Fundamentally CAD is better shape then the Aussie.This is one pair that I only sell.That's just me.
Question....I notice my chart doesnt have those little boxes that diplays orange or red or green in the TMS_ Angleator v3 -RT2 indicator at the far right corner on my chart just as you have it on your chart and other guys have it on their chart as well.
Answer....I never pay attention to those boxes.I just look at the arrows.Supposedly they mean something but all honesty PA is king.Its not like I will not take a trade because little box at the bottom is orange...It was developed or overdeveloped for TDI levels but looking at TDI is all you need.
When I mentioned UC I mean Canadian dollar oversold which is same as saying USD overbought
I don't use hard stops.Reason is 20-50pips SL are easily taken out.Market usually spikes before reversal.Try having wider stops smaller lots or monitor trades without hard SL
just want to reiterate that space between 61r/s to 100r/s is most critical and volatile because most often price reverses on these levels hence spikes are common....So If I take a short or long at 61R/S I will most often stay in it even if it goes through it because I know they are 2 more greater S/R coming up...Hope this helps in planning your SL and trades.
I have finally unravelled the pivot indy out of whack riddle! PITA for those of us presuming indy would be ready to go as is like a big Mac lol. I am in east coast Oz, and have NY close candle charts, but i still had to fiddle with my settings for it to line up with Davits charts. Closest i could get is 1.5 pips out from his, but that's close enough.
This what i did:
Get into indy settings. Set brokers candle to FALSE. This was the trick/key to being able adjust the pivots up and down for me.
Set the week to latest week on Choose H1 start candle/finish candle as follows:
'Choose H1 start candle': 2016 06 19 05:00
'Choose H1 finish candle': 2016 06 24 05:00
(5.00 a.m. may not work on your chart so try different hours till pivots line up).
Fiddle with the hour on your 'Choose H1 start candle/finish' settings to get it to line up with Davits U/C chart pivots. 5 a.m. was the hour that worked on my chart. When you find the corresponding hour, set the start candle and finish candle to the exact same hour.
That's part of it ...but I do lot more..I build positions.
from my trading plan
STOP LOSS
1 Decide how much each swing is worth example $500
2. Divide $500 into mini lots for multiple entries example .50c a pip gives 1000 pip distance
3. This allows averaging in orders as seen fit irregardless if previous orders are in red
4. Orders are placed as long as reason for trade is still valid
5. If conditions change loss is taken since orders are not all placed all at once this allows smaller loss
Swings
Each Swing investment $500
Swing is taken as loss once -$500 is reached but often loss is taken early if PA obviously is going against you hence its not necessary to wait until 500 is reached.
There are no exceptions.No running red beyond $500
Orders broken down into mini lots that satisfies each swing consist of 10-15 trades
I average about 15 swings a month consist of average 10 mini trades each swing
I came to realization that traditional hard SL of 20-50pip is total sucker move because players who move the market know exactly where your stops are.You will be taken out even if direction is correct. How to overcome this dilemma? Read my plan.Its very logical.
monitor your trades without hard SL.Beat them in their own game.
Read about Elliot Wave theory.Its the most brilliant concept in trading that all markets adhere to.Pivots are nothing but waves inside waves inside bigger waves.
Example I just exited my AC trades but should it hit 97 I most likely will sell again...You see you have to improvise and go with market flow.
Its 10 mini lots average.Usually its less.I add sometimes trades very close like 5pips apart.Everything depends how price moves.If I don't manage to enter all lots then that's not an issue just less profits.To me its about hitting monthly goal. Set % then try to hit it. Mine is 10% a month minimum and often exceed that % Its important to get overall concept in trading
Love rangy pairs they are best $$ makers...Pairs like AN AC NC EC often range.....Forex 70% is in a range.
A thread about pivot point trading. The thread is really informative. For example, below points are handy (that I got from that thread). I suggest to put the indicators in an empty chart. Davit says: combine pivots with low ADR-pairs (UC AC NC EA AU GU NU AN EU)(M15/30 chart, tp: 50-100)(weekly pivot as equilibrium)(if ADR>100, then reversal signal)
FYI:
Pivot is based on broker time start and that varies from broker to broker.My broker is NY based hence if you are in that time zone no need to change anything however if you live outside this zone you need to adjust the pivot to match mine.10pips or less Pivot difference is acceptable and normal.Its a zone after all. In order to move the pivots you need to take these steps.
Get into indy settings. Set brokers candle to false. This is the key to being able adjust the pivots up and down
'Choose H1 start candle': 2016 06 19 05:00
'Choose H1 finish candle': 2016 06 24 05:00......"See post 15"
(5.00 a.m. may not work on your chart so try different hours till pivots line up).
Fiddle with the hour on your 'Choose H1 start candle/finish' settings to get it to line up with my pivots. When you find the corresponding hour, set the start candle and finish candle to the exact same hour. Once adjusted save as template and use that on every pair.
Updated Pivot indi just change time zone and broker candle false
should work wherever you live
Question...hello Can you please tell me why did you shorted both EC and GC before news ?
Answer...Both made weekly highs so the Edge was on my side on downside and have been tracking Canadian economy and oil for years more familiar with CAD. I have traded CAD more then any other currency and its almost intuitive.Why I always bought CAD against NZD and AUD that's always been my preference for years.
I tell you more, when I started with Davit, right before news He sold UJ at R61, on strong up trend. And like Magic price reversed. I was blown away. Later I learned there is 100% correlation between price location according to pivots and fundamentals.
First page" the faster price reached 61-100 , more likely it will go into correction "
1) As price travels progressively away from weekly pivot it becomes more likely to go into correction.
2) 61 S/R key zone 78R/S is Scott Carney's last chance for reversal (spikes stops taken before reversal)
3) 100R/S another major zone. Should price smash 100 S/R then you are in strong trend supported by fundamentals.
1. Read page 1.
2. Read page 1 again.
3. Use his template and just post here with his template.
4. Use the search box before asking questions.
5. Go over the weekly calendar and try to anticipate what will happen, and which pairs are best left alone.
the R138 level is clearly an overextended trend
don't subscribe to typical bookish mentally that if previous H4 is bear then assumption should be another bear candle.This is very wrong way to look at the markets.Markets are in constant motion and within 1 H4 candle price can move opposite over 100pips against previous candle so its not about previous candles but where price is in relative to pivots.In simple terms Location is what is important.
I trade 15-30min charts however bigger works as well.
TDI is our friend.When price hit major pivots we wait for TDI to turn thus confirm the move. Sharp angles important when its almost horizontal PA is weak or consolidating thus avoid trading.PA is king always!
STOP LOSS
1 Decide how much each swing is worth example $500
2. Divide $500 into mini lots for multiple entries example .50c a pip gives 1000 pip distance
3. This allows averaging in orders as seen fit irregardless if previous orders are in red
4. Orders are placed as long as reason for trade is still valid
5. If conditions change loss is taken since orders are not placed all at once this allows smaller loss
Swings
Each Swing investment $500 (example yours could be anything)
Swing is taken as loss once -$500 is reached
There are no exceptions.No running red beyond $500
Orders broken down into mini lots that satisfies each swing consist of 10-15 trades
My budget for this is 2-3% of account risk say $500 for example.I then enter trades on mini lots and as long as my 500 is not consumed on DD and I am still confident of my trade I stay on it.I may choose to get out early but most times my SL is predetermined.This allows me to cast a wider net. So my 10mini lots can cover 50pip distance hence capture better RR
There is advantage to trade this way.Should PA go against you and you no longer like the trade you can get out by fraction of lot invested hence your loss is minimal instead of traditional 1 trade 1lot per trade when if wrong loss is substantially higher.
Numbers posted are for examples only
Note very important this system does not work best with hyper pairs that usually have over 120pip ADR like GJ GA GN etc
From numerous trial and errors low ADR pairs fits the best in my method
Pairs I trade most often......UC AC NC EA AU GU NU AN EU
TDI lines green crossing the black 15-30min chart and Price action agreeing
Its important to understand that pivots are zones and not exact number.Often price can fluctuate 10-20pips before turning.
Guys who pay attention look at Price action follow fundemetal news cut losses early are all winning attributes which contribute to having an edge.Nothing comes without effort.
depending how EU and GU doing. EG is combination movement of both.
Pivot is just a road map.PA is king.
The 0.786 is a vital Fibonacci number because it is often the last chance reversal area before retesting the original price point.
Be cognoscente of news which many systems just ignore.Its vital because I trade swings! (one of the reasons I have news feed on my template)
lowest TF I trade is 15min. 5min is scalping zone which is totally different mindset
I trade swings and they are swings on Down trend and uptrend.For me its all about the swing. Trend can change 100+pips in 4 hours opposite of previous 4 hrs and same on daily.Important to understand is where most turns likely to occur with the help of pivots and with TDI as confirmation you got a real edge.
correct.I look 30min cross mostly but have taken 15min as well but nothing smaller.......PA is king
My base TF is 30min but when I see a weakness I jumped on it even on 15min but PA must be in good zone 61+ unless its ranging.Ranging pairs tend bounce from 38 to 38
I don't trade news.Prefer to be out most times specially NFP.One usually finds good opportunities after. I do look for divergence but it has been my experience that its hard trading meaning what looks Div on H1 may look very normal on H4 and nothing at all on D.I like dives that show same up to Daily.
Its not something I put great impoetrance.To me most important is looking at Price Action in zones.
How much you are comfortable risking because that defines everything.......
Super conservative 1-2% 10k is 100-200 dollars which equals .10- .20 mini account a pip
lets go with .2 as example
5 positions on a pair is 1 dollar a pip and 100 pip move nets you 100 dollars.Granting you don't have other pairs trading you made 1%
you do this 4-5 times successfully a month will net you 4-5% gain of account which is respectful
Personally I traded .5 lots since 5k account and never looked back but don't go by my example I risk more because to some extend I know more and I want greater gain a month. 5% gain a month is not doing it for me.I need to hit 10%+
position size is depends on experience and risk appetite but industry standard is 2% risk generally most common.
As you guys know I love range and when I trade range I always trade towards BO direction.
Once again its not about being all over the board. That's not efficient. Focus on swings! on few pairs and maximize the gains
Its important also recognizing good opertunity spots and hit them hard 61-100 zone ideal
great spots enter with greater force lesser spots less force
Fundamentally I am becoming more bearish on USD.Unemployment claims raising and job creation declining and there will be no June hike so anticipate further USD decline.
Guys who know me know that I love range trading. EG is in a range.
I usually don't trade UJ because of BOJ could and have intervened in the past and price can spike or dive very quickly.In my real account I don't see value trading the Yen.
80% of my trades are on UC and some on AC and EC rest on EU AU NU GU EG....I like the Cad because I can keep up with oil and Cad fundamentals.To me you only need 2-3pairs to reach your monthly goal.....I can build 10 trades on UC equaling trading 10 different pairs but my results would be better because I only need one swing to collect.
General guidelines to me is this
If you have less then 5years of experience then don't trade hyper crosses like GN GA EN GJ
Anything over 130 daily range is red herring to me.Its not about profits its about controlling risk profits take care themselves.
Mistake lot of rookies make is getting carried over by greed and trade crosses and pay dearly when wrong.
Slow study the way to build equity.
I find 5-10pip differentiation of pivots acceptable.They are zones not exact number at least how I trade it.
I mainly use swings tops and bottoms as exits and sometimes hang to see if there is more action in same direction.....So swings can be anywhere 50pips to 100 depending on pair.Any gains more then 50pips is reasonable profit.
Pivot trading is basically swing trading.
We take profits from any swing irregardless of "trend" most here at FF don't understand what trend is.
What they think trend most often are swings in range market.
70% forex is in a range.Traders often complain about "choppy markets" but seriously those are most profitable times.
Focus on swings and that's when pivots help comes in.
PA hits major pivots
A.I look for behavior price action mostly rejected candles tall tails 15min up 1hr
B.Price breaks I get in once TDI confirms it 15-30min. I don;t care about H4 or daily.I trade swings.Price can drop 100+pips in 4hrs hence previous H4 is nullified.
C Ride the trade to next pivot.
Hard answering you exactly but I'll try. EA is combination of AU and EU .AU making reasonable gains but EU is stuck at 1200 so that effects EA directly.
I watch how majors behave when trading crosses.Momentum has lot to do with it plus simple PA reading.
In most cases I don't trade from pivot
Correct I think of weekly pivot as equilibrium.When price runs away from it resistance becomes greater as further it travels.
I don't set hard stops but do have % when in DD I get out.
Just be mindful trading exotics spread on those are not favorable.
I follow PA once I am in I build positions.I never enter full lot.Break them up and average out so I get a better price overall.This is common on stock trading but not in forex. It's my way of controlling losses.Should PA go against me I can get out with 1/4 lot damage instead of full lot.I don't place hard SL but do have a threshold when I get out. ADR is just allowing you to see daily extremes better.Example if UC travels 100ADR last 20days and its at 110 then chances of correction is great. Usually late entries get crashed which in general is stupid money.
Scaling in to me is about controlling risk and that's my number 1 criteria.Noticed I didn't mention anything about profits. Focus on risk control and profits take care of themselves. Rookie traders think about profits, Pro traders think about managing risk.2 are very different way to see the markets.
GU tanks GN will tank 2x faster.This happens in general a lot. rejected candles and look left as well.
UC moves in conjunction with Oil.Oil drops UC goes up and reverse true.
Max just be mindful that Pivots are like road maps like "watch something might happen"
But its not guarantee that without correct PA trades will be successful.
I recommend you wait and watch 1st how PA reacts to pivot then take appropriate trade. Price can easily go though pivots specially when propelled by news.
Something you should ingrain in you as a trader.Never assume what price may do without it doing it 1st
This part is the heart of trading.We watch 1st then take action.
I allow room for DD
DD is not necessarily a bad thing as long as you know how much you are willing to let it accumulate.
DD for me is the stop loss.As long as its within reason I usually stay on course unless clearly PA is proving me wrong.This is one of the reasons I am a huge advocate of cost averaging and trading small lots.
2 pairs AC EC I always sell never buy.That's just me.Like Canadian dollar I guess.Not the levels I like to sell yet but not comfortable buying it either considering oil gains.......In basic terms in order for your longs on AC and EC to have legs crude must drop.
I recommend trading G crosses after 5yrs of trading experience or you will pay dearly by massive sudden spikes and erratic moves.
Stick with pairs that are less then 120 pip ADR
I treat My entries as badges as 1 trade consist of 4-6 average mini trades.....When I exit I closed them all....My average distance is 50-100pips which usually same distance PA travels from 1 pivot to another. When you look at the chart you know when to exit.
I also use limit orders in my advantage since I work 70hrs a week I have no time for perfect entries so I place limits at key zones and wait to see what happens. Got AN at 38S waiting...Would it dive again? Don't know.Does it hurt being there? no but should it trigger and bounce up you will be in profit without effort....I have collected thousands of pips using this technique over the years.
To me waiting is critical part of trading
To me its about following fundamentals and charts.I already stated lots of data coming out on Euro...hence rather stay out of it and catch the exhaustions.
I prefer not trade pairs that are clearly untradable specially in between pivots.
If you can collect 50-70% of the swing that's splendid.Never feel bad leaving money on table.
most what i DO IS SIMPLE BASIC STAFF.PA reading and pivots and TDI as supporting roles.That's it.Keep it simple
That's how one should see set ups.Watch behavior then strike.
When TDI is sharp 4 5 6 O'clock or 12 1-2 O'clock means there is good buying and selling...This is something its intuitive you look at TDI wave and can tell what's going on...When its flattering means move is exhausted and ranging...Best way to think about this is selling or buying speed.Faster price drops sharper the angle.....Don't overthink about this....Watch PA.
One thing to keep in mind about divergence.PA must agree
In general scheme of things NZD hurts the NZ economy if it appreciates too much.Much of the economy is dairy and agricultural based and strong NZD is not competitive specially in light of Aussie recent rate cut.
I don't really count pips I count $$...I set for example $500 1 batch of trades. I enter mini lots.As long as my 500 is not reached then it did not reach my SL......
Once again my SL is based on actual $$ not pip.As long as my batch of trades have not reached max Dd in terms of $$ then I let it run. Let me give you concrete example.....I was shorting UC from 129 and price went 31+ and I had over 200pip DD but in actual $$ it was only 20% of my intended lot to be traded on this pair.Then I Hummered rest from the swing top and made all DD back plus nice profit. I trade unorthodox style I learned over the years that 20-30pip SL is sucker move.It will get hit and you can be taken out even if direction is correct. I refined my style of trading that pivots allows best entries without huge DD.People who see the value of this thread will profit
My sL is part of my trading entries.Should PA overrun my budget for that trade I take the loss manually. I often take earlier if I think fundamentals shifting....Reason I can do this because I don't over trade.I trade mini lots.
don't trade the swissy.I don't even look at it.
I don't mark previous pivots...I just carry over and watch PA with new pivots.I try to simplify everything.....
In general movements of crosses is dictated by majors. GU gains up so will GJ.Should GU continue to decline GJ will decline as well.
Love range pairs best money making situation.Don't believe shit you read on trading books.Range trading is great $$...Trading books are always talking about "trend" and most cases are clueless what that is...You should have 2 different way approaching pairs.Trending requires larger SL and patience and range requires getting in and out on swings.
Question.....When am in profit and PA suddenly turns without getting to any S/R and begin to move against me and TDi crosses down. does that mean i have to close the trade and take whatever little profit i have on the table. or still hold on to see if the PA would turn back to the former???
Answer.....Your question is excellent and I am surprised nobody asked that here before.Its actually a simple solution-go higher time frame...1hr 4hr specially....If previous 4h is bull stay in it...Move SL to break even then let price do its thing.Once you are more then 20pip in profit start moving SL closer and closer to protect the profits.
Price always goes towards least resistance.That's the simple truth.
Thinking in terms of probabilities also helps remove the emotional risk of trading. Mark Douglas talks about the 5 Fundamental Truths, they are as follows:
1. Anything can happen
2. You dont need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
5. Every moment in the market is unique
Now my system is based upon simple observation that price hitting pivots away from weekly pivot will either break or retreat.That's my set of variables and given years of observation I came to conclude that price breaking 61R or 61S is less likely then going towards next level and rejection increases incrementally as price hits 78R/S and 100R/S....This is hard for people to get specially trend traders but simple fact is Elliot theory is real.Nothing goes in straight line....My system is based upon exploiting and profiting from swings.Its as simple as that....To me trends don't exit only swings matter.
Daily open is S/R it creates a bias.Its on my template for a reason.I always like to know DO and ADR distance from that line...If pair travels average 20days 72pips like NU and manages to travels 130pips in 1day from DO then probability of correction is great or you should be cautious of getting in on LATE party after the move is exhausted...I usually get in on beginning of the move rarely on tail end.
My budget for this is 2-3% of account risk say $500 for example.I then enter trades on mini lots and as long as my 500 is not consumed on DD and I am still confident of my trade I stay on it.I may choose to get out early but most times my SL is predetermined.This allows me to cast a wider net. So my 10mini lots can cover 50pip distance hence capture better RR...There is advantage to trade this way.Should PA go against you and you no longer like the trade you can get out by fraction of lot invested hence your loss is minimal instead of traditional 1 trade 1lot per trade when if wrong loss is substantially higher.
I Love AC, it's my favorite range pair....Don't buy AC always sell AC....Fundamentally CAD is better shape then the Aussie.This is one pair that I only sell.That's just me.
Question....I notice my chart doesnt have those little boxes that diplays orange or red or green in the TMS_ Angleator v3 -RT2 indicator at the far right corner on my chart just as you have it on your chart and other guys have it on their chart as well.
Answer....I never pay attention to those boxes.I just look at the arrows.Supposedly they mean something but all honesty PA is king.Its not like I will not take a trade because little box at the bottom is orange...It was developed or overdeveloped for TDI levels but looking at TDI is all you need.
When I mentioned UC I mean Canadian dollar oversold which is same as saying USD overbought
I don't use hard stops.Reason is 20-50pips SL are easily taken out.Market usually spikes before reversal.Try having wider stops smaller lots or monitor trades without hard SL
just want to reiterate that space between 61r/s to 100r/s is most critical and volatile because most often price reverses on these levels hence spikes are common....So If I take a short or long at 61R/S I will most often stay in it even if it goes through it because I know they are 2 more greater S/R coming up...Hope this helps in planning your SL and trades.
I have finally unravelled the pivot indy out of whack riddle! PITA for those of us presuming indy would be ready to go as is like a big Mac lol. I am in east coast Oz, and have NY close candle charts, but i still had to fiddle with my settings for it to line up with Davits charts. Closest i could get is 1.5 pips out from his, but that's close enough.
This what i did:
Get into indy settings. Set brokers candle to FALSE. This was the trick/key to being able adjust the pivots up and down for me.
Set the week to latest week on Choose H1 start candle/finish candle as follows:
'Choose H1 start candle': 2016 06 19 05:00
'Choose H1 finish candle': 2016 06 24 05:00
(5.00 a.m. may not work on your chart so try different hours till pivots line up).
Fiddle with the hour on your 'Choose H1 start candle/finish' settings to get it to line up with Davits U/C chart pivots. 5 a.m. was the hour that worked on my chart. When you find the corresponding hour, set the start candle and finish candle to the exact same hour.
That's part of it ...but I do lot more..I build positions.
from my trading plan
STOP LOSS
1 Decide how much each swing is worth example $500
2. Divide $500 into mini lots for multiple entries example .50c a pip gives 1000 pip distance
3. This allows averaging in orders as seen fit irregardless if previous orders are in red
4. Orders are placed as long as reason for trade is still valid
5. If conditions change loss is taken since orders are not all placed all at once this allows smaller loss
Swings
Each Swing investment $500
Swing is taken as loss once -$500 is reached but often loss is taken early if PA obviously is going against you hence its not necessary to wait until 500 is reached.
There are no exceptions.No running red beyond $500
Orders broken down into mini lots that satisfies each swing consist of 10-15 trades
I average about 15 swings a month consist of average 10 mini trades each swing
I came to realization that traditional hard SL of 20-50pip is total sucker move because players who move the market know exactly where your stops are.You will be taken out even if direction is correct. How to overcome this dilemma? Read my plan.Its very logical.
monitor your trades without hard SL.Beat them in their own game.
Read about Elliot Wave theory.Its the most brilliant concept in trading that all markets adhere to.Pivots are nothing but waves inside waves inside bigger waves.
Example I just exited my AC trades but should it hit 97 I most likely will sell again...You see you have to improvise and go with market flow.
Its 10 mini lots average.Usually its less.I add sometimes trades very close like 5pips apart.Everything depends how price moves.If I don't manage to enter all lots then that's not an issue just less profits.To me its about hitting monthly goal. Set % then try to hit it. Mine is 10% a month minimum and often exceed that % Its important to get overall concept in trading
Love rangy pairs they are best $$ makers...Pairs like AN AC NC EC often range.....Forex 70% is in a range.
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