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Diversified Trend Trading Approach

  • #3,941
  • May 31, 2018 4:07am May 31, 2018 4:07am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} If it is brown and smells a convergent trader will avoid it as they have already decided it is a dog turd. A divergent trader will embrace it even if it is a dog turd...but it may also be a truffle. A divergent trader smells a bit but is wiser for it :-)
Mate, show some mercy!
I was laughing like stupid for half an hour or so. Wife thought I went nuts
Enter Signature
  • #3,942
  • May 31, 2018 4:15am May 31, 2018 4:15am
Quoting thomasK
{quote} Mate, show some mercy! I was laughing like stupid for half an hour or so. Wife thought I went nuts
Hehehe. That was the intent mate. I was coming in for the kill in dog turd language. I thought it might get a few coffee's spilling.:-)
  • #3,943
  • May 31, 2018 4:31am May 31, 2018 4:31am
Quoting thomasK
{quote} I suggest that if you want a reference time frame in order to trade the M15, to use a more relevant one. I believe you should look at a TF not more than 5 times the magnitude of your entry-exit time frame. In your case this could be H1.
Very nice guidance mate. I concur. I am on the verge with M5 and M30 at the moment. That is definitely as far as I would push it...eg. max 5 to 6x.
  • #3,944
  • May 31, 2018 6:06am May 31, 2018 6:06am
Quoting failinforex
{quote} Follow the trend of MN - SELL {image}
HI mate how do you get the sentiment of the pair on the chart? is a indicator? do you code it? can you share it?
gl with the trade
  • #3,945
  • May 31, 2018 7:18am May 31, 2018 7:18am
i laught every time when i hear someone saying trend following is dead. the concept of buying a new high and sell higher is still valid.
are markets just people opinions and expectations exprimated in long/short postitions?
http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=129437
(i don't know the guy, i'm not affiliated with him, just nice read)
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Price itself it's an indicator
  • #3,946
  • May 31, 2018 7:47am May 31, 2018 7:47am
Quoting Msmaximus
{quote} HI mate how do you get the sentiment of the pair on the chart? is a indicator? do you code it? can you share it? gl with the trade
https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio?filter=EURUSD
POW!
  • #3,947
  • May 31, 2018 8:07am May 31, 2018 8:07am
Quoting m3rlin
i laught every time when i hear someone saying trend following is dead. the concept of buying a new high and sell higher is still valid. are markets just people opinions and expectations exprimated in long/short postitions? http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=129437 (i don't know the guy, i'm not affiliated with him, just nice read) {image}
Thanks for sharing the "Tulip Mania" M. That goes straight to the coffee table.
  • #3,948
  • May 31, 2018 10:39am May 31, 2018 10:39am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Exactly V ..........and why your robust systems need to be turned "on" all the time. Filters are a fools errand or a type of filter where you try to predict when to turn your system on or off........as are broad brush stop statements...... These all are forms of you attempting to dictate terms to the market. But mate....that fake news fart is a market condition. You need to handle it and the way you do this is trade all the news farts including the real news. Understanding the market condition is not about analysis mate. It is simply about...
Concerning news and turning off system on red news. I was trading news with Bloomberg squawk setup. I can tell you that there are much more UNEXPECTED events happening that move markets that planned red announcements.

One time GBP JPY jumped 100 pips because somebody had to buy zillions of GBP for JPY and mismanaged the transaction badly. There was some merger going on.

One time one guy from Fed went out and said something, dollar sunk. Then next day other guy said it was not true. Dollar moved more than on NFP.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,949
  • May 31, 2018 10:48am May 31, 2018 10:48am
Quoting failinforex
{quote} Good pointers but seriously most stuff here are way above my head. Hence, I just try to use the simple things I found here. Just 1 pair, can't afford to diversified, and obviously not 400:1. {image}
If you can't afford to be diversified, instead of throwing money away trading one - two - few markets, get money to be diversified: get a job, save, get a second job, or get regulated nano lot broker.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,950
  • May 31, 2018 4:11pm May 31, 2018 4:11pm
How can the scientific method be applied to invest in global financial markets?

Inserted Video
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,951
  • May 31, 2018 7:54pm May 31, 2018 7:54pm
Quoting Ramadas
{quote} Concerning news and turning off system on red news. I was trading news with Bloomberg squawk setup. I can tell you that there are much more UNEXPECTED events happening that move markets that planned red announcements. One time GBP JPY jumped 100 pips because somebody had to buy zillions of GBP for JPY and mismanaged the transaction badly. There was some merger going on. One time one guy from Fed went out and said something, dollar sunk. Then next day other guy said it was not true. Dollar moved more than on NFP.
Nice mate. Another QED there :-)
  • #3,952
  • May 31, 2018 8:01pm May 31, 2018 8:01pm
Quoting Ramadas
{quote} If you can't afford to be diversified, instead of throwing money away trading one - two - few markets, get money to be diversified: get a job, save, get a second job, or get regulated nano lot broker.
I just got my second job. Thanks you and thomask for pointing me to the right direction.
  • #3,953
  • Edited Jun 1, 2018 12:44am May 31, 2018 8:08pm | Edited Jun 1, 2018 12:44am
Quoting Ramadas
How can the scientific method be applied to invest in global financial markets? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HowzjkohIuE
Mate that is just such a wonderful find. Winton is where the game is at.

That video really should be at the introduction of this thread. If you are ok with that then I will put it there?

What can I say mate....but thanks :-)

From the Winton piece....and adapting it slightly.

There is one universe which is ALL there is ....which is the boundary for all there needs to be for us to ask this question.........and in that universe the ALL creates conservation laws...such as the Laws of conservation of energy, conservation of information, conservation of the speed of light in vacuo etc.... In all other respects every complex system inside that universal context is a nested system in which there are no laws. They just obey the higher conservation laws. All sub systems have emergent dynamic and non-stationery 'moving' conditions of growing emergence. One closed system being this universe with all the other system subsets being open systems in the end....particularly these markets. The universal laws of the universe flow through all these nested systems ensuring there is coordinated rhythm throughout and between each sub-system that obey the integrity of the whole....but within each, there are no such discreet laws. The only laws applicable to each sub system is that they must obey the universal laws of the universe.....this ensures consistency or 'covariance throughout'. This is what makes this universe sensical and is what gives rise to cause and effect. There is not impossibility in this universe...as there are golden rules of the universe which prescribe what can be achieved and what can't be achieved. Don't listen to the fruit-loops who think otherwise.

I think this is where V and I depart in our philosophies. There are no laws or golden rules for all time in this market....which is clearly an open sub-system of the greater economic sub system...of the greater universal system. It is just one big moving feast where you have to adapt to survive in it. Golden rules in any sub system are temporary only while conditions hold.....and then they turn on their head and the goal posts shift again. That is uncertainty....and that is why a future problem is divergent in nature....and not convergent.

You can think you are divergent until risk exposes your actual lack of it. An inquisitive scientist only sees divergence.....all theories can be overturned....there are no constants in natural sub systems or man's derivatives of it..... except the universe itself. All subsystems are on an entropic quest to merge with the universal condition of 'true equilibrium'....they are all directional in nature towards the future state....but through nature's trickery in consuming external resources to that system...some systems can run counter to this state for a temporary period only....like life itself...or the cosmic clusters....but in the end there is just the homogeneous state of infinite 'nothingness'. A state that is very real...but simply comprises 'no things'. From order to disorder..and then perhaps back again *if there is a bounce*....but that latter state at the moment from a possible bounce at least in physics is a big *perhaps*.

The clues to this gigantic riddle are the 'Signals in the Noise'. It lies in the *useful* information (aka the order) that we can extract from disorder and at this point in time.....and we are very fortunate (though luck might have nothing to do with it) to be in the middle of this state or condition between order and disorder.....Aside from luck...on a deeper level there is perhaps a very good reason why we can pose these thought provoking questions 'now' ......as in this state we can still empirically test it. Our ability to test through empiricism is how we hold onto a reality without going mad. As the eons pass however there will be no way to empirically test this knowledge as the noise will dominate the signals and then science will have to be left to the *mad* philosophers only.....but then the mind will subsume to the ultimate universal state of nothingness as well. Everything is already in this universe including the 'state of our minds'...but we are progressively absorbing all the useful content until once again the conscious observer of this universe dissipates into the void.

*C sobs hysterically in self-induced depression*

Thanks so much for the inspiration R....or should I say .....no thanks R *sniggers*

QED

PS There is a point of departure between sanity and insanity. The sane can travel a long way together with the insane but just stop short of the final destination of the insane by clinging tightly to the only benchmark of sanity that is left....which is empiricism. Leave your 'woo' shoes behind if your are divergent and enjoy the fruits of the scientific method. It is better than any hallucinatory drug.....but Drugs are bad!!!!..... mkay :-)
  • #3,954
  • Edited Jun 1, 2018 1:07am May 31, 2018 11:50pm | Edited Jun 1, 2018 1:07am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
One more thing to consider: addig to a position on lower highs/higher lows when the market favors us. This way we could maximize profits in long trends
Just going back over the 39 ideas from Ed Seykota and ticking them off as I go....and I may have led you on a false path 3. In terms of pyramiding...I haven't tested yet the progressive scaling down of position sizing as you progress in-trend. Ramadas has also bought this up in the past....but as yet I haven't tested out the principle to my satisfaction. I note that Ed does follow this principle....and on re-reading your post....this was probably what you were referring to....so this may definitely have some merit and needs to be tested. Thanks muchly for bringing it t my attention 3.....and sorry for such a categorical statement previously of indecisiveness in my prior post responding to you. I have tested equal weighted pyramiding but not scaled pyramiding. Equal weighted is indecisive....but the verdict is still out on a scaled down approach to pyramiding.

C
  • #3,955
  • Jun 1, 2018 3:16am Jun 1, 2018 3:16am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Mate that is just such a wonderful find. Winton is where the game is at. That video really should be at the introduction of this thread. If you are ok with that then I will put it there? What can I say mate....but thanks :-) From the Winton piece....and adapting it slightly. There is one universe which is ALL there is ....which is the boundary for all there needs to be for us to ask this question.........and in that universe the ALL creates conservation laws...such as the Laws of conservation of energy, conservation of information, conservation...
Well, I have no rights to this video, so I am not the right person to ask
I thought you would like it, so treat it as a birthday present
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,956
  • Jun 1, 2018 3:24am Jun 1, 2018 3:24am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Just going back over the 39 ideas from Ed Seykota and ticking them off as I go....and I may have led you on a false path 3. In terms of pyramiding...I haven't tested yet the progressive scaling down of position sizing as you progress in-trend. Ramadas has also bought this up in the past....but as yet I haven't tested out the principle to my satisfaction. I note that Ed does follow this principle....and on re-reading your post....this was probably what you were...
No worries, can your demigod of programming create scaled down pyramiding entries?
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,957
  • Jun 1, 2018 3:35am Jun 1, 2018 3:35am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Just going back over the 39 ideas from Ed Seykota and ticking them off as I go....and I may have led you on a false path 3. In terms of pyramiding...I haven't tested yet the progressive scaling down of position sizing as you progress in-trend. Ramadas has also bought this up in the past....but as yet I haven't tested out the principle to my satisfaction. I note that Ed does follow this principle....and on re-reading your post....this was probably what you were...
Actually we have already discussed this principle and in my own trading I implement a version of it.

Since a big part of this thread is devoted to diversification, we have already mentioned that we have three major "sources" of diversification:
Instrument diversification
Systems diversification and
Time frame diversification.

Using the same system applied to the same instruments but in two or three different - preferably consecutive - time frames, contains the above Seykota principle to a satisfactory extent.
Enter Signature
  • #3,958
  • Jun 1, 2018 3:43am Jun 1, 2018 3:43am
Quoting Ramadas
{quote} No worries, can your demigod of programming create scaled down pyramiding entries?
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  • #3,959
  • Edited 5:03am Jun 1, 2018 3:45am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting thomasK
{quote} Actually we have already discussed this principle and in my own trading I implement a version of it. Since a big part of this thread is devoted to diversification, we have already mentioned that we have three major "sources" of diversification: Instrument diversification Systems diversification and Time frame diversification. Using the same system applied to the same instruments but in two or three different - preferably consecutive - time frames, contains the above Seykota principle to a satisfactory extent.
Yep mate. I have been going through each...and convince myself we respond to these....except the pyramiding. Might be wrong but it is a handy benchmark to see if we are on the right track. :-)

PS Just re-read T. You are right. We do effectively pyramid by a multi-timeframe approach to diversification as you implied...just not on the same timeframe. Sorry mate. Slow tonight :-)
  • #3,960
  • Jun 1, 2018 5:25am Jun 1, 2018 5:25am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Yep mate. I have been going through each...and convince myself we respond to these....except the pyramiding. Might be wrong but it is a handy benchmark to see if we are on the right track. :-) PS Just re-read T. You are right. We do effectively pyramid by a multi-timeframe approach to diversification as you implied...just not on the same timeframe. Sorry mate. Slow tonight :-)
Well, 250 000 % in 16 years? I think he knows what he is doing, so it is nice benchmark to have. His method cannot be complicated if he could program it on punch cards in '80ties... Probably moving averages and breakouts.
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
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