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Diversified Trend Trading Approach

  • #3,921
  • Edited 11:46pm May 30, 2018 11:29pm | Edited 11:46pm
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
{quote} Thank you C, and all other for the ride! The Moody Blues - Ride My See-Saw https://youtu.be/Iss9xKyqAeA
Cheers Carp. I know you are into this stuff. It is a shame more aren't :-)

It could be a state of reason mate...as before "I had reason", I was a real cocky asshole. Maybe your parents do 'know it all'....and that is a finding on this journey.
  • #3,922
  • May 30, 2018 11:49pm May 30, 2018 11:49pm
Quoting Copernicus
What is the simplest most economical trading philosophy to adopt to catch the alpha on MN of the ups and downs of uncertainty?.....
Follow the trend of MN - SELL
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  • #3,923
  • May 30, 2018 11:52pm May 30, 2018 11:52pm
Quoting failinforex
{quote} Follow the trend of MN - SELL {image}
Nice mate and even if you have it wrong you will be out quick sticks with a quick whipsaw waiting for another pounce when you will be right. A convergent guy would be waiting until the market confirms his rightness. This would be a viewpoint of say where price is in relation to 'fair value'...or where the RSI and MACD were signaling an entry...or where a news event is going to confirm or reject market consensus etc. etc. etc. We are more stupid than that and let the market dictate terms to us. :-)
  • #3,924
  • May 31, 2018 1:06am May 31, 2018 1:06am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Nice mate and even if you have it wrong you will be out quick sticks with a quick whipsaw waiting for another pounce when you will be right. A convergent guy would be waiting until the market confirms his rightness. This would be a viewpoint of say where price is in relation to 'fair value'...or where the RSI and MACD were signaling an entry...or where a news event is going to confirm or reject market consensus etc. etc. etc. We are more stupid than that and let the market dictate terms to us. :-)
Hey C,

Thinking about "shock absorbsers" in the context of any strategy.... is there a performance measure that could quickly tell the "Risk of Account Blown" factor measured in $ related to account balance or equity... I am not referring to risk of ruin or any of the volatility/standard deviation measures or monte carlo simulations. I hope you know what I mean. I am not asking about pips to margin call either

EDIT: Alternatively, it could be a "diversification score" or "portfolio balancing score" on how well a portfolio performs to market shocks
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,925
  • May 31, 2018 1:13am May 31, 2018 1:13am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Hey C, Thinking about "shock absorbsers" in the context of any strategy.... is there a performance measure that could quickly tell the "Risk of Account Blown" factor measured in $ related to account balance or equity... I am not referring to risk of ruin or any of the volatility/standard deviation measures or monte carlo simulations. I hope you know what I mean. I am not asking about pips to margin call either
Hi Mate

We measure portfolio heat which you can see on the right hand site of the screen shot below. This gives us a snapshot of worst possible $ scenario at any point in time. This can translate to an 'account blow up statement' if 100% represents total adverse exposure at any point in time. We use this as an ongoing quick and nasty measure to ensure our greed doesn't get the better of us. If we stick to a max heat of 10% of equity, that lies within our tolerance levels. It tells us when to put the foot on or take the foot off the gas in terms of diversification.

It is very simple mate. It just summarises the position of each EA we have operating against our worst case scenario at all points in time and consolidates it all at the portfolio level. In our case we utilise unrealised profits to lift the game a bit....but in your case you will be maxxing this up but the principal can be applied to your technique mate and sup'd up to reflect realised profit to take off the table at any time and have a close all function on those trades.....including a residual $ value of the balance of your portfolio that would be left and what that represents in terms of total equity etc.

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  • #3,926
  • May 31, 2018 1:40am May 31, 2018 1:40am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hi Mate We measure portfolio heat which you can see on the right hand site of the screen shot below. This gives us a snapshot of worst possible $ scenario at any point in time. This can translate to an 'account blow up statement' if 100% represents total adverse exposure at any point in time. We use this as an ongoing quick and nasty measure to ensure our greed doesn't get the better of us. If we stick to a max heat of 10% of equity, that lies within our tolerance levels. It tells us when to put the foot on or take the foot off the gas in...
Thanks. I am not sure if heat map is what I am looking for. Now I need some coffee Lol

Would you mind sharing a code snippet of the individual heap map function (not the overall portfolio heatmap). Also, in my case, it will have to be equity and not balance as blowup risk via sudden spike is always based on equity and i have all those protections in place. I just do not have a 'tracking' or logging mechanism in place that will tell me if I had an adverse risk (i.e. how close I came to triggering my drawdown manager or margin manager or lossmanager. Do you see this importance of this feature that I lack in my design? I am looking for "something" that will tell me on a weekly or 30 day window, how well did I do to prevent getting close to a blow-up scenario
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,927
  • May 31, 2018 1:48am May 31, 2018 1:48am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks. I am not sure if heat map is what I am looking for. Now I need some coffee Lol Would you mind sharing a code snippet of the individual heap map function (not the overall portfolio heatmap). Also, in my case, it will have to be equity and not balance as blowup risk via sudden spike is always based on equity and i have all those protections in place. I just do not have a 'tracking' or logging mechanism in place that will tell me if I had an adverse risk (i.e. how close I came to triggering my drawdown manager or margin manager or lossmanager....
Mate I will have a chat with our god of programming....but we tend to keep this under lock and key. I am the blabber-mouth mate...but some aren't as friendly. You should be able to nut out the principal mate. If you work off several accounts or different platforms then the Portfolio dashboard needs to work across platforms and separate accounts ..... so dependent on the arrangement there will be calcs inside each platform that inform the Dashboard and risk management mechanisms that span accounts etc.

In regards to the heat map....we also work off equity at all times as this worst case scenario is our total unrealised worst case scenario on equity at all times mate. This keeps us honest.
  • #3,928
  • May 31, 2018 2:01am May 31, 2018 2:01am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Mate I will have a chat with our god of programming....but we tend to keep this under lock and key. I am the blabber-mouth mate...but some aren't as friendly. You should be able to nut out the principal mate. If you work off several accounts or different platforms then the Portfolio dashboard needs to work across platforms and separate accounts ..... so dependent on the arrangement there will be calcs inside each platform that inform the Dashboard and risk management mechanisms that span accounts etc. In regards to the heat map....we also...
Thanks man. No worries. I will figure it out in no time. I was just curious if there is something standard available on myFXbook or TE to look into. Appreciate it. I am already working ony own performance stat model to avoiding hooking up my accounts on the web. It's just the next logical thing for me to do.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,929
  • May 31, 2018 2:13am May 31, 2018 2:13am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks man. No worries. I will figure it out in no time. I was just curious if there is something standard available on myFXbook or TE to look into. Appreciate it. I am already working ony own performance stat model to avoiding hooking up my accounts on the web. It's just the next logical thing for me to do.
Mate Rimantas and Justin are clever lads that have a billion and one solutions for this in the MT4 environment. Also refer to the AutoTrading Academy. They also have great myFXbook solutions for running multiple EA's of billions of separate MT4 accounts. It might be worth checking them out if you can bear the continuous marketing efforts of this mob. I do....cause their solutions are worth the pain or at least give me ideas....as I have major trust issues :-)
  • #3,930
  • May 31, 2018 2:27am May 31, 2018 2:27am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} I beg to differ; Market conditions can be divided onto regimes (of our choice); i.e. ranging vs trending, volatile vs calm, etc.
agree.
... From a risk management perspective, it is better to avoid major economic events.
yes, from a risk management pov is better to avoid them but from a money management pov is better to bet on them.

most of the days are the same, they begin and end without forming memorable memories. like shorting more turkish lira in the day of the coup (some trend following lads where short lira for weeks/months and in that day added to the short side, others closed the postitions, others did nothing just holding to the bet) the guy that was also short lira, adding to the short and also having a sense that is not an ordinary day, is a historyc moment was ahead, he was able to hold with convinction.

really, the turkish coup was a historyc moment (made by cia, gru, edro himself or someone else? maybe we will find the true in 50 years or never) but look what happened after: more historyc events and extreme ones sending turkey a nato ally close to russia for buying millitary equipment.
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #3,931
  • May 31, 2018 2:41am May 31, 2018 2:41am
Quoting m3rlin
{quote} yes, from a risk management pov is better to avoid them but from a money management pov is better to bet on them. most of the days are the same, they begin and end without forming memorable memories. like shorting more turkish lira in the day of the coup (some trend following lads where short lira for weeks/months and in that day added to the short side, others closed the postitions, others did nothing just holding to the bet) the guy that was also short lira, adding to the short and also having a sense that is not an ordinary day, is a...
Spot on M

The dream of dreams in the divergent space and the nightmare come true in the convergent mindset.

6 years of sublime opportunity...but if you are not diversified?....you can watch it from the sidelines :-)

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PS Apologies for those that may not appreciate the reminder
  • #3,932
  • May 31, 2018 2:49am May 31, 2018 2:49am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Mate Rimantas and Justin are clever lads that have a billion and one solutions for this in the MT4 environment. Also refer to the AutoTrading Academy. They also have great myFXbook solutions for running multiple EA's of billions of separate MT4 accounts. It might be worth checking them out if you can bear the continuous marketing efforts of this mob. I do....cause their solutions are worth the pain or at least give me ideas....as I have major trust...
Thanks C. It's time for me to head back in my cove. I was waiting for my final remarks patiently but time is of the essence in our lives. I feel I have shared what I came here to do in this thread... primarily more in the area of Diversified Risk than Diversified Trend but it is all connected and not to boast my ego or strategy or performance charts. It was all part of my way to share little bit with others to shorten their learning curve but I doubt that would be the end result.

Hope it added positive growth to your journey and that of your readers. It has been a good discussion.
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,933
  • May 31, 2018 2:51am May 31, 2018 2:51am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks C. It's time for me to head back in my cove. I was waiting for my final remarks patiently but time is of the essence in our lives. I feel I have shared what I came here to do in this thread... primarily more in the area of Diversified Risk than Diversified Trend but it is all connected and not to boast my ego or strategy or performance charts. It was all part of my way to share little bit with others to shorten their learning curve but I doubt that would...
No probs mate. It has been a fine discussion. Check in from time to time my friend :-)
  • #3,934
  • May 31, 2018 3:03am May 31, 2018 3:03am
I must admit that it seems I have alway underestimated the power of diversification.
Below an example of a (less) diversified portfolio with a simple (convergent) strategy.
Cheers, S.

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  • #3,935
  • May 31, 2018 3:09am May 31, 2018 3:09am
Quoting SputnikX
I must admit that it seems I have alway underestimated the power of diversification. Below an example of a (less) diversified portfolio with a simple (convergent) strategy. Cheers, S. {image} {image}
Hehehehe. A convergent traitor in our midst. Nice one SputnkiX.
  • #3,936
  • May 31, 2018 3:21am May 31, 2018 3:21am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Spot on M The dream of dreams in the divergent space and the nightmare come true in the convergent mindset. 6 years of sublime opportunity...but if you are not diversified?....you can watch it from the sidelines :-) {image} PS Apologies for those that may not appreciate the reminder
no apologies for them. will be nice if the downtrend in lira will last for some more months or years and we will see the lira trading at 7-8 usd. take care mate.
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #3,937
  • May 31, 2018 3:22am May 31, 2018 3:22am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hehehehe. A convergent traitor in our midst. Nice one SputnkiX.
jail for the traitor
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #3,938
  • May 31, 2018 3:29am May 31, 2018 3:29am
just coming back online
thankyou for your patience
heads up
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
  • #3,939
  • May 31, 2018 3:53am May 31, 2018 3:53am
Quoting failinforex
{quote} Follow the trend of MN - SELL {image}
I suggest that if you want a reference time frame in order to trade the M15, to use a more relevant one.
I believe you should look at a TF not more than 5 times the magnitude of your entry-exit time frame.
In your case this could be H1.
Enter Signature
  • #3,940
  • May 31, 2018 3:56am May 31, 2018 3:56am
Quoting Copernicus
Question How much alpha does the market make available on MN....and can we make more through leverage and trickery or are we fools to think so?
Stock market has a lot of alpha on MN
FX market not (by construction). I bet that W1 provides much more alpha than MN
Enter Signature
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