Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 463 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #9,241
  • May 27, 2018 11:02pm May 27, 2018 11:02pm
Quoting razib23nn
euro/aud weekly up trend good demand area daly downtrend price come weekly pool back area 4 hour momentum trend line break but not break any zone. if zone break and pool back 4 hour demand area then i give buy limit {image} {image} {image}
Nice! But be aware of low liquidity today due to holidays in the US and UK!

Cheers.
  • #9,242
  • May 28, 2018 4:32am May 28, 2018 4:32am
Quoting razib23nn
euro/aud weekly up trend good demand area daly downtrend price come weekly pool back area 4 hour momentum trend line break but not break any zone. if zone break and pool back 4 hour demand area then i give buy limit {image} {image} {image}
Like your charts buddy does it not make sense to look for new areas of supply forming though based on this monthly chart leaving new supply area?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: A9696059-EA71-42BE-A335-001BB79EB5C3.png Size: 216 KB
  • #9,243
  • Edited 9:29am May 29, 2018 7:24am | Edited 9:29am
Forex exotic USDRUB is rallying strongly on the weekly and creating a brand new weekly demand imbalance at 57.4 after breaking descending trendline. At set and forget we decide upon a zone on several factors including departure, basing, higher timeframe confluences etc. In an uptrend supply levels are removed and demand zones and imbalances are respected.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdrub_demand_longs_forex-1024x381.png Size: 137 KB


Forex and Stocks supply and demand analysis
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #9,244
  • May 30, 2018 9:23pm May 30, 2018 9:23pm
Hi Alfonso,

I am currently reading the thread and at the same time watching your backtest videos on youtube. I found a daily chart you posted here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...29#post6774029

As far as i know about the rules, to draw a down trendline we need to connect the 2 latest peak. When i try to follow that rule i found that my trendline is different from yours. Am i missing something or is there any other explanation that i am not aware of?

If we use the trendline you drew in white, the price would still be under the trendline so the trend is still down.
But using my yellow trendline, price would have already broken the trendline so the pair would be in consolidation.

Here is the chart with my trendline drawn on it for comparison. My trendline is drawn in yellow and i have circled the area that i think are the peaks:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 85 KB


Thank you,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
  • #9,245
  • May 31, 2018 1:20am May 31, 2018 1:20am
Quoting beefStew
Hi Alfonso, I am currently reading the thread and at the same time watching your backtest videos on youtube. I found a daily chart you posted here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...29#post6774029 As far as i know about the rules, to draw a down trendline we need to connect the 2 latest peak. When i try to follow that rule i found that my trendline is different from yours. Am i missing something or is there any other explanation that i am not aware of? If we use the trendline you drew in white, the price would still be...
You are ABSOLUTELY right, the trendline was not updated to the latest two peaks. Thanks a lot for pointing it out.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #9,246
  • May 31, 2018 1:21am May 31, 2018 1:21am
Forex major EURUSD is dropping on the monthly and creating a brand new supply imbalance for potential shorts by breaking ascending trendline, which should happen in a couple of days. In a downtrend supply zones are respected and demand imbalances are removed and right now we have some new supply forming at 1.21955 so short bias on EURUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 71 KB


EURUSD Forex supply and demand technical analysis
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #9,247
  • May 31, 2018 8:25am May 31, 2018 8:25am
Alfonso,

Sorry, im back again with another question about trendlines.

In this H4 chart on this post:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...56#post6778356

I found that if i follow the 2 latest peaks rule, i will get a trendline that is different from what you drew on that H4 chart. Here is the version of my trendline, i dont know if it follows the 2 peaks rule correctly or not:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: thread.png Size: 90 KB


And on this backtesting video on USDJPY here:
Inserted Video


On minute 13:55 of the video, the trendline you drew was not based on 2 latest peaks rule. if i was to follow the 2 peaks rule, here is the result i would get:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: video.png Size: 353 KB


I found this confusing and rather dangerous for me, because our bias have to change depending on whether the trendline has been broken or not. to keep going long/short or entering a consolidation, is it right?

Any explanation will be greatly appreciated.

Thank you,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
  • #9,248
  • May 31, 2018 9:53am May 31, 2018 9:53am
Quoting beefStew
Alfonso, Sorry, im back again with another question about trendlines. In this H4 chart on this post: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...56#post6778356 I found that if i follow the 2 latest peaks rule, i will get a trendline that is different from what you drew on that H4 chart. Here is the version of my trendline, i dont know if it follows the 2 peaks rule correctly or not: {image} And on this backtesting video on USDJPY here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEg9roR9QK8 On minute 13:55 of the video, the...
Hi
For the historical data in your backtest, are you using the paid service in Forex Tester 3 or importing the data for free from somewhere?
Thanks
  • #9,249
  • Jun 1, 2018 2:57am Jun 1, 2018 2:57am
Quoting beefStew
Alfonso, Sorry, im back again with another question about trendlines. In this H4 chart on this post: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...56#post6778356 I found that if i follow the 2 latest peaks rule, i will get a trendline that is different from what you drew on that H4 chart. Here is the version of my trendline, i dont know if it follows the 2 peaks rule correctly or not: {image} And on this backtesting video on USDJPY here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEg9roR9QK8 On minute 13:55 of the video, the...
There is a wrong trendline as you pointed out, it's not correct. You are absolutely right on that one.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #9,250
  • Jun 1, 2018 2:58am Jun 1, 2018 2:58am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Hi For the historical data in your backtest, are you using the paid service in Forex Tester 3 or importing the data for free from somewhere? Thanks
No need to pay for any data, unless you want to trade data from a specific broker. Just use the free data included in Forex Tester.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #9,251
  • Jun 1, 2018 2:59am Jun 1, 2018 2:59am
Very strong monthly demand levels created on Mediaset SPA Italian Stock. Clear setups to go long very low around 2.6 and 1.98
New very strong monthly imbalances to go long with used up monthly supply zone overhead. Long bias

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mediaset_demand.png Size: 54 KB


Stocks supply and demand trading analysis
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #9,252
  • Jun 1, 2018 10:01am Jun 1, 2018 10:01am
Could the dollar have a pull back here hmmmm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E9A57D40-9386-4663-847C-ECD79637A361.png Size: 195 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 449106A3-E3AD-4BE6-8B14-970AB45635D1.png Size: 206 KB
  • #9,253
  • Jun 2, 2018 2:42am Jun 2, 2018 2:42am
Quoting Neil0163
Could the dollar have a pull back here hmmmm {image} {image}
Neil,

What is that trading platform you use on your android?
It really looks like tradingview, but i couldnt seem to find tradingview app in google playstore for android

Thanks,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
  • #9,254
  • Jun 2, 2018 2:57am Jun 2, 2018 2:57am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} There is a wrong trendline as you pointed out, it's not correct. You are absolutely right on that one. Cheers, Alfonso
okay Alfonso, thanks!

I thought i missed some explanation about trendlines, but i guess everything is in place now.
Moving forward to tackle the next topic, multi timeframe analysis.

Cheers,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
  • #9,255
  • Jun 2, 2018 3:20am Jun 2, 2018 3:20am
Quoting beefStew
{quote} Neil, What is that trading platform you use on your android? It really looks like tradingview, but i couldnt seem to find tradingview app in google playstore for android Thanks, Ivan
Yeah your correct buddy it is trading view try and google TradingView apk. Apk usually finds apps but it should be on the App Store!
  • #9,256
  • Jun 2, 2018 3:48am Jun 2, 2018 3:48am
Quoting Neil0163
{quote} Yeah your correct buddy it is trading view try and google TradingView apk. Apk usually finds apps but it should be on the App Store!
Neil,

I could not find any apk that is similar to yours.
The ones that i found is basically an app to open tradingview website in an apk wrapping lol.
Thanks though

Cheers,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
  • #9,257
  • Jun 2, 2018 3:58am Jun 2, 2018 3:58am
Quoting beefStew
{quote} Neil, I could not find any apk that is similar to yours. The ones that i found is basically an app to open tradingview website in an apk wrapping lol. Thanks though Cheers, Ivan
Arr not to sure then buddy I just donwloaded mine from my App Store but thinking about it now I use iPhone so that’s not android is it?
  • #9,258
  • Jun 2, 2018 4:03am Jun 2, 2018 4:03am
Quoting Neil0163
{quote} Arr not to sure then buddy I just donwloaded mine from my App Store but thinking about it now I use iPhone so that’s not android is it?
I guess thats why our app is different, Neil

As far as i know, TradingView is not available for Android for now. I thought you are using an android phone. Now that you just said you used iphone i think thats why i cant find a version of tradingview like yours. Google playstore doesnt have any legit tradingview app so yeah, i think its not available yet.

Cheers,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
  • #9,259
  • Edited Jun 3, 2018 3:03am Jun 2, 2018 11:48pm | Edited Jun 3, 2018 3:03am
Hi Alfonso,

Im currently trying to put all the rules together and trying to begin analyzing every chart i can find.
Can you please give some advice on my analysis on EURUSD?
And probably help me pointing out some mistakes and rules that i skipped or unaware of.

Monthly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 51 KB


The monthly trendline has been broken, creating new supply area on 1.2555-1.2153. Price keep dropping and creating a lower low from 7 months ago. Short bias right now.

Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 30 KB


I doubt a little when trying to draw the weekly trendline but i think the area in pink circle is the 2nd peak because it creates a lower low. Weekly demand areas have been removed so it is a downtrend too.

Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 40 KB


Daily is in a downtrend and a demand area back from about 11 November 2017 was removed by the supply that i marked on the chart. The supply area has been tested and the trendline almost broken and i dont really know how to intrepret this one. the low price is still under the trendline so does this mean the trendline still not broken because we need all the OHLC to be above the trendline? No supply area has been removed so it is a downtrend for the daily

H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 38 KB


the H4 trendline has been broken but no supply and demand area has been removed so it is in consolidation.

Now im trying to pull a conclusion from each timeframes.
The monthly and weekly trend is down so we should only place sell orders.
Even though the daily trendline is a bit looks like it has been broken, overall price is still under the weekly trendline so we can still go short (is this correct?).
The curve from daily is high but i cant find a fresh supply to lean on so i will wait for new supply to be formed.
The possible way for a fresh supply to be formed is when price breaks the H4 CP area on 1.1623-1.1588 (is it correct?)

after price breaks that area i will place a sell limit order on the new supply area and try to run the trade until it takes me out because the monthly doesnt seem to have a strong demand until 1.0658.

This has been a long post and thank you for reading it

Cheers,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
  • #9,260
  • Jun 3, 2018 4:00am Jun 3, 2018 4:00am
I have a similar view to your self, I’m waiting to see if anymore new levels of demand are created. to take out the supply. If we could pull back to weekly supply area this could form a H&S, I’ve measured the target and it would come in right at that monthly demand level. I’m fighting weather or not to classify huge pin bar as a touch of that weekly demand zone and only reason being is when I look at the weekly on dollar index I have a pin bar formed right in weekly supply level. Also if we got the pull back I think the MA would have nice confluence. Maybe consolodation on daily for a bit so it can form a base on weekly before moving back to fresh weekly supply if not and we get new demand levels created on daily then I can assume we are moving up to that supply level where I’ll look to short on confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E1B4ABBA-A279-4137-A82B-20756E3547D9.png Size: 226 KB
3 traders viewing now