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Scalping the EUR at the European open

  • #321
  • Nov 25, 2017 5:33am Nov 25, 2017 5:33am
Sat 25th Nov. End of week review for EUR/USD.

Apologies for being out of touch for a while. I have recently returned to UK from Crete and moving into new accommodation, so have been a bit preoccupied with domestic issues.

I find it useful to review a week's activity on the EUR/USD pair, so here it is for the past week. The most important question to be addressed is, 'what value does the 7 am candle have on the 30 m chart?' Is it really the 'truth' candle?

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Tellboy
  • #322
  • Dec 1, 2017 6:18am Dec 1, 2017 6:18am
Friday 1st December. Here is the end of week review for EUR/USD. It would appear that the dynamics of the pair are changing in a way that invalidates the strategy. It now seems that the 7 am candle is losing its 'truth' bar indicator of direction to trade. Instead it is emerging that the profitable entry point is at 07:30 in the opposite direction of the 7 am candle. Look at the chart below for examples. Don't forget that synchronicity with three other EUR pairs is still essential. Have a good weekend.

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Tellboy
  • #323
  • Dec 8, 2017 5:29am Dec 8, 2017 5:29am
Friday 8th December sees EUR/USD on a continued bear move throughout the week. Maintaining the strategy of using synchronicity between a set of four pairs, with the 7 am candle as an indicator and EUR/USD as the principle guide we can see that 7:30 has emerged as the right time to enter. See the chart below.

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Tellboy
  • #324
  • Dec 8, 2017 9:15pm Dec 8, 2017 9:15pm
Like it, timing wise it suits a Kiwi down under
  • #325
  • Dec 9, 2017 3:01am Dec 9, 2017 3:01am
Quoting tellboy
Friday 8th December sees EUR/USD on a continued bear move throughout the week. Maintaining the strategy of using synchronicity between a set of four pairs, with the 7 am candle as an indicator and EUR/USD as the principle guide we can see that 7:30 has emerged as the right time to enter. See the chart below. {image}
Hi tellboy

Your time based strategy is a very good one. It is consistent which is what one is most definitely looking for in this extremely tough game! I have adapted my trading style to it completely now. It works just as well on GBP pairs too.

Just wondered, are you talking about 7.00am UK time? I've noticed that often moves are starting last hour of Asian session. That would be 6.00am UK time. I would really say though that if one waits till 7.00am (UK time) it is sometimes the 7.00am bar and sometimes the 7.30am bar (30 min chart)
  • #326
  • Edited 4:16am Dec 9, 2017 4:01am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Hi tellboy Your time based strategy is a very good one. It is consistent which is what one is most definitely looking for in this extremely tough game! I have adapted my trading style to it completely now. It works just as well on GBP pairs too. Just wondered, are you talking about 7.00am UK time? I've noticed that often moves are starting last hour of Asian session. That would be 6.00am UK time. I would really say though that if one waits till 7.00am (UK time) it is sometimes the 7.00am bar and sometimes the 7.30am bar (30 min chart)
Yes, 7 am is UK time. And you are correct when you say that moves often begin in the last hour of the Asian session. First and foremost there must be synchronicity in four pairs in their shape and trend. Then I pay particular attention to the direction of the 06:45 candle on the 15 minute chart. Again, if there is synchronicity on all four pairs then the 7 am bar will usually follow through if it is in the same direction as the trend. I often catch the 7 am bar on all four pairs and call it a day with a good profit instead of waiting for the pullback and then entering at 07:30. In fact, for those of you who want to really test this strategy, you may like to try catching the 7 am move and exit with profits, and then take a second bite of the cherry with the 7:30 follow through with a longer wait and a bigger profit.

It is important to point out that when there is a sharp retracement at 7 am against the trend then it is wise to enter at 7:30. See last week's (Dec 1st) end of week chart for excellent examples.

It is all a matter of patience, trial and error and testing the strategy to see what works best for you. But remember, if there is no uniformity or synchronicity in the shape and direction of the trend on all four pairs then it won't work. Happy trading to all. Have a good weekend and a good trading week next week.
Tellboy
  • #327
  • Feb 10, 2018 4:53pm Feb 10, 2018 4:53pm
Quoting tellboy
{quote} Yes, 7 am is UK time. And you are correct when you say that moves often begin in the last hour of the Asian session. First and foremost there must be synchronicity in four pairs in their shape and trend. Then I pay particular attention to the direction of the 06:45 candle on the 15 minute chart. Again, if there is synchronicity on all four pairs then the 7 am bar will usually follow through if it is in the same direction as the trend. I often catch the 7 am bar on all four pairs and call it a day with a good profit instead of waiting for...

hi tellyboy

your thread sparked my interest.

but your rules seem to change all the time. has the dynamic of this method changed, or is it still profitable ?

you mention in your last post, that you enter trades at 7am london time (?). on igindex (i have an igindex account too). but you look at the 6.45am candle to determine the direction to trade. that is a 15m candle.

but i thought you look at the 30m candle as the truth candle, which i assume is the 6.30am candle. so why now 15m candle ?


if you enter at 7am in the direction of the strength, and there is a sharp retracement meaning you are in a loss, would you then enter again at 7.30am in the same direction or in the direction of the retracement ?

you said you set your tp at 100 pips but surely you cannot have reached that by 7.30am on all 4 pairs ?

also, which 4 pairs to trade and how do you identify synchronity in all 4 pairs.

if you can clarify what exactly the rules are, step by step, that would be great,

hope you respond, it will be interesting to try out your strategy with the precise rules.

lastly, you have other threads, are they all showing the same trading method ?
  • #328
  • Mar 8, 2018 1:39am Mar 8, 2018 1:39am
Hey, TB - still trading or have you disappeared into the clouds of Mount Athos !?

Anywhichway, I am reviewing your method as it sits very close to one of mine (an M15 chart being very slooooow for me... & I'm slowin' down, just like old Slowhand himself, Eric Clapton ).

  • #329
  • May 27, 2018 8:22am May 27, 2018 8:22am
Hi Guys. Sorry I have been out of touch. I spent last Summer in Crete and had to come back to UK for psychology research projects. All under control now and back in the trading seat. I have designed an automatic trading system to take the decision making out of the process. Using the rules set out in the first post and letting the system run itself. Here is the state of the EUR pairs on Sunday. We can see there has been a sustained downtrend on all pairs for several weeks now as it nears a bottom. So let's take care and look out for a flattening out at the bottom and a possible reversal. Having said that, the auto system I have devised takes the risk out. Here is a reminder of the strategic rules: Price crosses below the 20 MA when the 100 and 50 MAs are trending down. An added precaution it to trade below the daily pivot when shorting.

Let's see how well it works with a 25 pip target on all pairs.

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Tellboy
  • #330
  • May 28, 2018 4:07am May 28, 2018 4:07am
Good morning EUR scalpers. Here are the charts for this morning. Following such a sustained downtrend on all EUR pairs it was no surprise to see a retracement on all EUR pairs with the exception of EUR/NZD which paved the way for the continued downtrend on all pairs. There has been some confusion on the value of the 7 am candle on the 15 M time frame, but I think the example today, marked by the sell signals, shows us the value of this bar even when synchronicity has been compromised by the EUR/NZD being out of sync. But the NZD did show us the way.

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Tellboy
  • #331
  • May 29, 2018 2:10am May 29, 2018 2:10am
Tuesday 29th May and EUR/USD has reached its previous bottom (check this on a day time frame). Following the rules we have reached our 100 pip target today, that is 25 pips for each pair selected. Take note of the length of the bear candles from 7 am. These illustrate the speed and momentum of the move on all four pairs, indicating an extremely weak EUR. The big question now is will EUR/USD break below its previous low or will it bounce up?

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Tellboy
  • #332
  • May 29, 2018 7:05am May 29, 2018 7:05am
Quoting tellboy
Tuesday 29th May and EUR/USD has reached its previous bottom (check this on a day time frame). Following the rules we have reached our 100 pip target today, that is 25 pips for each pair selected. Take note of the length of the bear candles from 7 am. These illustrate the speed and momentum of the move on all four pairs, indicating an extremely weak EUR. The big question now is will EUR/USD break below its previous low or will it bounce up? {image}
Hi Tellboy,

Thanks for the good strategy. It has really shown the extremely weaker Euro in the early week. Lets see how it plays in the remaining day of the month.
  • #333
  • May 30, 2018 2:28am May 30, 2018 2:28am
Wednesday 30th May and EUR pairs touched a new low yesterday, which suggested the possibility of a bit of a retracement this morning. We can see on today's charts below that there was a bull candle at 7:45 on all charts. A move as strong as this (see the length of that candle) against the trend is a pretty good indicator that price will move to the upside from 7 am and give us our 25 pip target on all pairs.

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Tellboy
  • #334
  • May 31, 2018 3:12am May 31, 2018 3:12am
Thursday 31st May and EUR continues its retracement from the bottom. This morning's strong bull candle appeared at 6:30 on all four selected pairs. If you were up early you may have caught it and called it a day. There was a little inconsistency with pull-backs on the AUD and especially NZD which, for those who entered too early, was very scary. Price pushed through nicely from 8 o'clock for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY (see how these pairs are synchronized). We had to wait until 8:15 for AUD and NZD to cease their pull back and resume the upward move to claim our 25 pip target. This was not ideal for those like me who have no patience, but if you have the time and have nerves of steel then it will pay off. Here is also a very good example of the strategy to set a buy stop order as price pulls back. When the up move resumes then your buy stop is triggered and your in the trade.

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Tellboy
  • #335
  • May 31, 2018 3:51am May 31, 2018 3:51am
Nice thread tellboy!
EUR is indeed getting stronger!
Just my 2 cents
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  • #336
  • May 31, 2018 9:27am May 31, 2018 9:27am
Quoting tellboy
Thursday 31st May and EUR continues its retracement from the bottom. This morning's strong bull candle appeared at 6:30 on all four selected pairs. If you were up early you may have caught it and called it a day. There was a little inconsistency with pull-backs on the AUD and especially NZD which, for those who entered too early, was very scary. Price pushed through nicely from 8 o'clock for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY (see how these pairs are synchronized). We had to wait until 8:15 for AUD and NZD to cease their pull back and resume the upward move to...

hi tellboy


glad to see you back !

could you kindly answer my post number 327 above of the 10th feb ? when you have the time.


thanks
  • #337
  • Edited 2:36pm May 31, 2018 2:19pm | Edited 2:36pm
Quoting whatfx
{quote} hi tellboy glad to see you back ! could you kindly answer my post number 327 above of the 10th feb ? when you have the time. thanks
Hi there whatfx. Too many questions. One at a time please. Thank you. Or, better still, you may like to go back to the start of the thread and see the rules. When all criteria are met then trades are excellent, but that doesn't happen every day. Trading is dynamic and if pairs performed exactly the same every day then we would all be millionaires. If you want to take trades that don't meet all the criteria then you need a bit of flexibility and risk. I hope this helps. Take care and thanks for the interest.
Tellboy
  • #338
  • Jun 1, 2018 3:05am Jun 1, 2018 3:05am
Friday 1st June sees USD as the strongest currency this morning and AUD the weakest (See the pairs list on the left of the upper chart). We saw conflicting sentiment with EUR pairs with EUR/USD being pushed down by the strengthening USD and out of sync with EUR/JPY. The weakening Aussie sees EUR/AUD rising to a dangerous resistance level and EUR/NZD straddling its 100 MA. Signs suggest that EUR pairs are consolidating sideways following the recent bounce from the bottom. All these signs suggest indecision and therefore staying out of the market this morning. Remember, for good trades we need uniformity and synchronicity. So, if you wanted to trade this morning were you willing to bet on the direction and take a risk or stay out? Strictly following the rules says stay out.

The first set of charts shows this conflict at 7:15 and the lower set shows the outcome at 8 am.

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Tellboy
  • #339
  • Jun 1, 2018 4:54am Jun 1, 2018 4:54am
Thanks for the updates Tellboy.
  • #340
  • Jun 1, 2018 9:24am Jun 1, 2018 9:24am
Quoting tellboy
{quote} Hi there whatfx. Too many questions. One at a time please. Thank you. Or, better still, you may like to go back to the start of the thread and see the rules. When all criteria are met then trades are excellent, but that doesn't happen every day. Trading is dynamic and if pairs performed exactly the same every day then we would all be millionaires. If you want to take trades that don't meet all the criteria then you need a bit of flexibility and risk. I hope this helps. Take care and thanks for the interest.

hi tellboy,

thanks for your response. my questions are:

1. you mention in your post, that you enter trades at 7am london time (?). on igindex (i have an igindex account too). but you look at the 6.45am candle to determine the direction to trade. that is a 15m candle.

but i thought you look at the 30m candle as the truth candle, which i assume is the 6.30am candle. so why now 15m candle ?


2. if you enter trade at 7.00 am in the direction of strength but the trade goes against you , would you then enter trade again at 7.30 am in the original direction of strength or the current reverse direction ?


3. i have an ig index account. how do i bring up the pairs list on like you have done ? do i need to request ig index to switch this on my account ?


thanks
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