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The Swamp

  • #18,861
  • May 27, 2018 1:36pm May 27, 2018 1:36pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Bitcoin This Week

For Bitcoins, the latest COT as of Tuesday, May 22, 2018, institutions stay net short bitcoins and decreased bearish bets by 215 bitcoins to net negative 1,659 bitcoins,

312 longs were closed and 527 shorts were closed as well, Now Longs total 2,840 bitcoins vs shorts total 4,499 bitcoins .

39% long exposure vs 61% short exposure , the same as the previous week

This week Bitcoin started at 8,481 on 5/15, rallied high to 8,590 , came down to 7,951 low on 5/25, closed at 7,984 on 5/22

More longs being closed indicated institutions not expecting price moving higher after hit 9900s last week.They also closed more shorts when price at 7900-8000s levels

Bearish bias remains...

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position. Bitcoin future exchange started a few months ago,
there were not enough data to analyze institutions long term view in crypto market.
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  • #18,862
  • May 27, 2018 2:27pm May 27, 2018 2:27pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Dollar This Week

For Dollar, the latest COT as of Tuesday, May 22, 2018, institutions increased bullish bets 5 weeks in a row by 2,568 contracts to net long 2,586

1,717 longs were added, 851 shorts were closed, Now Longs total 30,411 contracts vs shorts total 27,825 contracts .

52% long exposure vs 48% short exposure , Longs added 2% and shorts dropped 2% from the previous week

Dollar started 93.31 on 5/16, it rallied high to 94.05 on 5/21, closed at 93.59 at 5/22

Longs being added indicates their belief that dollar will rise higher from 93-94 area; Shorts being closed also helped them with the longs.

Dollar may on its way to challenge daily supply zone from 94.60-95.15 area.

Long term bullish, short term may go higher to test daily supply zone

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For dollar, they were bearish from 7/25/2017 to 5/15/2018.
They just started increasing their net long positions for the 2nd week. Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #18,863
  • May 27, 2018 4:15pm May 27, 2018 4:15pm
#Euro starts higher to the week as #Italy's Premier-Designate Conte quits bid to form government. Raising prospect of early vote

Thanks for the gap up.. I am out of all my manual longs...
  • #18,864
  • May 27, 2018 4:31pm May 27, 2018 4:31pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

Until Tuesday, institutions continued to cut their Euro bullish bets for 5 weeks in a row , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, May 22, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 5,370 contracts to 109,744 contracts

6,643 long positions were added, and 12,013 short positions were added as well . Now Longs total 225,960 contracts vs shorts total 116,216 contracts .

66% long exposure vs 34% short exposure, which 2% decreased in longs and 2% increased in shorts from previous week

This week Euro started at 1.1837 on 5/16, continued lower to 1.1716 on 5/21 closed at 1.1778 on 5/22/2018

Longs being added indicates they might think the temporary bottom soon; Some Shorts being added as well, as they may prepare for some pullback or hedge some their longs .
We did see it went down further to 1.1650 after the COT report.

Long Term Less Bullish, Short Term Trying To Stabilize Of The Fall, So Far No Evidence

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #18,865
  • May 27, 2018 7:44pm May 27, 2018 7:44pm
Quoting Fari-Logical
Dear Micho, Boulder and gatorinla please need ur suggestion Im traped in GU in buy at 3414. And i think it well be more down i cant afford too much it will wipe my account till 1.30xx . Can it goes up for retracement before touching 1.30xx.......????
it may be your lucky day. 3358 possible/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #18,866
  • May 27, 2018 7:57pm May 27, 2018 7:57pm
Eur/Usd: Key Target Levels For 5/28/2018

For Shorts: L1: 1.1620 L2:1.1596 L3: 1.1555

For Longs: L1: 1.1669 L2:1.1694 L3: 1.1734
  • #18,867
  • Edited 8:35pm May 27, 2018 8:02pm | Edited 8:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
another chance to short 1716 should come.. L close above 1726 may be a rejection of a short.
near now.. targeting 1615 or more.. entry 1750/1716..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #18,868
  • May 27, 2018 8:13pm May 27, 2018 8:13pm
Short
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #18,869
  • May 27, 2018 8:37pm May 27, 2018 8:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} near now.. targeting 1615 or more.. entry 1750/1716..
fixed entry typo,, 1716/50
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #18,870
  • May 27, 2018 10:01pm May 27, 2018 10:01pm
real troopers..

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #18,871
  • May 27, 2018 10:47pm May 27, 2018 10:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} fixed entry typo,, 1716/50
Careful shorting; USD on sand now - 81.XXX.
  • #18,872
  • May 27, 2018 10:49pm May 27, 2018 10:49pm
Quoting failinforex
{quote} Careful shorting; USD on sand now - 81.XXX.
first triggered,, i have another at 1725 up till 1749..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #18,873
  • May 27, 2018 11:04pm May 27, 2018 11:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} first triggered,, i have another at 1725 up till 1749.. {image}
Thanks Gator, I will also add 1734...
  • #18,874
  • May 27, 2018 11:11pm May 27, 2018 11:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} first triggered,, i have another at 1725 up till 1749.. {image}
Q3 is 3 more days plus weekend hence 5 Jun will be good time to enter long slowly.

1.1685 for me to accumulate long.
  • #18,875
  • Edited May 28, 2018 7:47am May 27, 2018 11:33pm | Edited May 28, 2018 7:47am
Quoting failinforex
{quote} Q3 is 3 more days plus weekend hence 5 Jun will be good time to enter long slowly. 1.1685 for me to accumulate long.
u may be right.. my long at 1649 was triggered just b4 close friday.. but the bastards stopped me a few minutes later.. I wasn't around to watch the pending. my tp was 1716 -1 pip..

I may be wrong, I am short for 1615 or more.. maybe 1446, 1726 holding is a good sign to me.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #18,876
  • May 28, 2018 12:20am May 28, 2018 12:20am
I'm looking to short off about 1750 depending on time and price. Risk 1 to 2 .... Just looking for patterns here now.
At least it is not going sideways in a line.
Back from the dead * ding fries are done *
  • #18,877
  • May 28, 2018 6:30am May 28, 2018 6:30am
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 5/28/2018

Eur/Usd On 5/28/2018 at 8am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System:

1H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1638, Running Period: 6x1H
4H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 4H close 1.1754, Running Period: 54 x 4H
Daily, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2033, Running Period: 39 days.
Weekly, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2535, Running Period: 1 week


( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)

Trading Strategy:

Currently 1H uptrend, 4H, daily and weekly are downtrend. A mixed signal, Range trade. If you trade 1H trend, preference is to long as long as uptrend stop 1.1638 held at 1H close. Euro is testing 1H uptrend stop 1.1638 at this moment, I am waiting to see it will hold..30 mins to go...
  • #18,878
  • Edited 7:59am May 28, 2018 6:39am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Boulder
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 5/28/2018 Eur/Usd On 5/28/2018 at 8am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System: 1H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1638, Running Period: 6x1H 4H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 4H close 1.1754, Running Period: 54 x 4H Daily, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2033, Running Period: 39 days. Weekly, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2535, Running Period: 1 week ( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action) Trading Strategy: Currently 1H uptrend, 4H, daily and weekly are downtrend. A mixed signal,...
I manually long two .. 1638 and 1650...with 30 pips sl

edit: Both got stop out..
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  • #18,879
  • May 28, 2018 6:45am May 28, 2018 6:45am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I manually long two .. 1638 and 1650...with 30 pips sl {image}
adr has reached today with 92 > 85...
  • #18,880
  • May 28, 2018 7:42am May 28, 2018 7:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} u may be right.. my long at 1749 was triggered just b4 close friday.. but the bastards stopped me a few minutes later.. I wasn't around to watch the pending. my tp was 1716 -1 pip.. I may be wrong, I am short for 1615 or more.. maybe 1446, 1726 holding is a good sign to me. {image}
text book,, editing 1749 corrected to 1649
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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