dude's journal

Another lesson:

On Friday, 11 May I started trading near NY open. I created a basket of 7-9 trades that quickly went positive. Instead of remembering that it is Friday, and there is little/no news today I was feeling cocky and greedy because my last two weeks have gone well, and a quick +50 pips was too easy/not enough. I saw one trade in my basket that was going backwards, while all the others were performing well, and just ignored it.

It took me a ridiculous ten minutes before I realized that I had Shorted the increasingly negative trade pair instead of going Long! Aughh... I corrected my error, and ate -20 pips.

As I sat there, waiting for more follow-through and for my trade basket to grow to +80, +100, etc pips, imy basket went backwards. I dumped poorly performing trades, as usual, and added new trades to my basket--all the while the no-news Friday NY session was dying, and there was less and less follow through.

Eventually I had dumped most of my basket's trades, and was feeling angry at myself for entering that wrong-direction trade, for not quickly recognizing my Entry error, and for chasing a dying market. Revenge trade-mode, and self-punishment mode kicked-in: I liked the increasing -CHF COT and retail trader extreme +CHF positioning. I opened a 42 LOT trade long USD/CHF, and left it there for the weekend.

Having that trade open all weekend ruined my weekend as expected and made me think, again, about my performance on Friday. By Sunday, at Market open I calmly exited that trade for 1/2 as much profit as had existed on Friday late NY session. Lesson hopefully learned, or at least getting closer to trading more consistently and smartly.
Onwards...

You are doing great these days..awesome keep it going dwe! :-)

Thanks dude!

Trading a crazy # of LOTS for a fat monthly rebate, and making piles of money for my friendly Broker-dude, but not quite enough focus on trading smarter to haul in more cash for me.

"Necessity is the mother of invention"
Seriously.

After the London Session closes...

Missed this beautiful breakout that started one hour after NY open today, GJ 5 minute chart.

Here's another 5-minute breakout trade that I missed, that started 30 minutes before NY opened today:

Dude, you made a great comeback today...
Today (Thu) 0.7%
It would be more interesting to see what trades you took and how you turned around the losses, than some hindsight chart, believe me!

Well, I began as usual (today about an hour after London opened) watching 30 minute charts--looking for momentum--and started with JPYs. Got crushed in both directions. Next, U looked weak, as did C, N and A, with E and G alternating strength, so I opened a basket of them....finally saw that oil was dropping quickly, and C strength was growing across all pairs, and my basket was mostly underwater and not moving much--despite having dropped and added several trades. EG was moving up well, so I closed my underwater basket except for EC, and piled more LOTS into EC long, looking to exit by the 30 minute recent highs, or sooner if it popped up quickly.

That was the day. Typical day--digging myself into a hole, then looking around more carefully, and having several hours on the charts to better see emerging strong/weak currencies. PF, you were the main influence on my choosing to define a successful day as a profitable day, and being flat by London close. Thank you. While it's fun battling back to make a small profit each day, it would be much more fun to start the first basket of trades with a massive profit.

The hindsight charts are reminders to me--for how I would like to become more patient, and to trade such set-ups. But over the past several profitable months I've come to feel comfortable trading multiple daily baskets of trades--like you sending out a few scouts, before piling in on a tasty reversal, I'm looking for momentum, and when I find it, I add to winners. It's all about the scouts.
Onward...

"PF, you were the main influence on my choosing to define a successful day as a profitable day, and being flat by London close. Thank you. While it's fun battling back to make a small profit each day, it would be much more fun to start the first basket of trades with a massive profit. "

i am happy to hear this, really am!

as for the massive profits, sometimes things get lucky, sometimes continue to get lucky. ( and sometimes it is best to get up after some profits, or not even open a trade all day!)
when you place a basket, with 20+ lots, all it really need is a net 10 pips across to find yourself with 2000$....
i am a scalper, but you cut yourself way shorter on your potential, really.
not to mention the multiple baskets, and the way more than 20 lot exposures at times.
it is only a thought, but for the volume, the profit could be a lot better. i think you understand the point. only saying, because i feel that is the direction where you could try to improve some, and the results would be massive, and i mean: MASSIVE!

you are doing great Dude, and if you watched the video i posted today (WSW) you know all that matters making some money day after day, week after week....and you are doing that!
the rest is fine tuning, just a little.

Hi dude,

I'm sorry but I must play the devil's advocate here

Don't get me wrong, I'm not here to troll but only give a different view, different perspective.

I don't consider myself as a pro or anything like that but to the contrary of what profitfarmer said, with all due respect, for me, you're not doing well.

In my years of trading and reading TE's here at FF, I have learned to read what are, for me, the 2 most important characteristics provided by a trader explorer and telling almost everything about a trader's technique.

First, is the "return by trade" chart, the first one that is shown by the TE, and when looking at yours, I'm concerned, because your chart is not peak and valleys but instead a roller coaster which could mean that you are very good some days but as bad on others, or in other words not consistent or not limiting your losses correctly, really I don't know.

The other thing is the profit factor which shows 1.14, meaning that your trading is not very efficient with a such low value meaning that you lose as much as you win which makes very hard staying profitable in the long run and which explains also the roller coaster chart.

Again, I'm not here to tell what you should do, just saying what I would try to improve myself but maybe you know it already or maybe that those characteristics simply do not apply to your trading style.

In any case, I wish you to stay profitable in the future.

Dude,
Thanks for talking time to review my Trade Explorer, and identify some of my trading weaknesses. I agree with you, and want to trade more consistently, with smaller equity swings.

Although I manage to make money most days, I often play catch-up later in the day and that sometimes involves larger risk. More patience, and time spent watching charts before entering, and/or entering initial daily basket trades in smaller size may be helpful.

One benefit to trading high volume is the monthly volume rebate my Broker pays. One goal is to make more from trading each month than from the rebate.

Hope you're having a good week, and thank you again for taking time to comment.

I suspect that looking at your TE of the last 3 months would change slightly the roller coaster look to maybe a slow upward slope?
As I see, that rebate is not a greatest thing, but trading is for money. And that rebate is more, way more!! money that most come close to make as profit ( often in a year?!)...and talking about the monthly rebate amount, not even a total to date!
The PF of 1.14 is low, but you trade a basket, and if the overall basket is in profit who cares really the breakdown of that basket that it had at close 20k losers positions and 22.5k winners?
As a basket, and as for that day, that is +2.5k, and as per your admission about the monthly living expenses.
This little fact is often overlooked when purely want to see numbers.

For my comment of doing good, is as, stand for an overall aspect.
As for not losing, like 6-8 months ago, but closing weeks after weeks ahead, in green.
Sure, it could be nice to see higher PF, etc, and in private I had some points made in past...but trading is a money business, and it has foremost tick one box: does it make profit for the month? If yes, you are doing good in my vocabulary.

May, 2018 review.

Watching this series yesterday inspired me to identify my trading problems and design solutions to fix them, so that my trading will improve in June:

Like last month, I traded profitably during the first three weeks of the month, was up +20%, then self-destructed from over-trading, revenge-trading and over-tired trading from trading at all hours, and being glued to the charts during the last week. That self-defeating activity has got to go. Yesterday I traded over 200 millionUSD. Earlier in the week, While that number is great for my monthly rebate and my kind Broker Terry, I am not trading well if my rebate exceeds my trading earnings. In May I also had 80 Lots on one UC trade to catch-up for the day, and that trade was at +$11k, and I let it go to -$2k, just because I wasted to get another 7 pips, and be positive for the day. All-or-nothing does not work in trading.

Two problems with the multiple, daily-basket trading strategy were that when an early daily basket of trades got me substantially underwater, then I would take on increased risk to dig myself out of the hole, trying to end the day profitably. One day I had swings of about -15% to +11%. It also led me to over-trade. That technique is now banished, to save my trading account and my sanity.

I've decided to trade 1-minute breakouts and reversals exclusively during June, from between 2 hours before NY opens to London close, and to and reduced the number of pairs that I'm watching to: EJ, GJ, UJ, CJ, AJ. NJ (the "live power-meter group") and EU, GU, EA, GA, EN, GN, EC, GC, EC, NC, UC.

I also will shut down the computer by London close and get out of the house. Less screen time = better concentration. Sticking with a constant bedtime, not eating too much before bed, going for a walk or to the gym in the evenings, and always running 6km before trading has been very helpful to sleeping well, and to starting my trading days awake, calm and focused.

Here's to June!

Hey Dwe.. I also close shop at London close to prevent overtrading.... You trade break out Rocky style? If yes did you also tried it on 5m....if I am at work I use time charts and 5 min prevent me better for over trading, revenge trading... Still working on that but it is getting better. Keep up your improvements and you will be a great trader, best of luck for you Dwe

Today I moved between 1 minute and 30 minute charts, and traded several small baskets of trades. Always take a look at the big picture, and have S/R lines drawn--then drop down to 1 minute charts for entries and exits.

Wait at least 20 minutes after NFP--even if I think I know where it is going after three minutes, because I was wrong again!

If EA has been dropping for the last 45 minutes, don't buy EN at Resistance, even if I liked (past tense) the momentum, and think that it will break UP.

When shorting EJ and GJ at highs, with bearish divergence, be more patient to hold these trades through the entire big drop--changing to 1 minute charts when the move starts--and don't be so concerned with other trades that may be open. Missed 150 pips from impatience.

Good trade, noticing GU starting to climb several hours after an NFP with favorable USD numbers, and getting in and then exiting after the pop up, at recent highs. Trade charts, not release numbers.

Trade reversals at Resistance instead of just sitting there, watching them bounce off Resistance lines that I've drawn--make Profitfarmer proud.

There's lots of pips out there; you're entitled to them, so go get them!

Nice return today.. 1%....do you have a specific way to draw s/r lines?

I usually draw horizontial lines on 30 minute charts from the most recent high/low. Sometimes I add Daily uptrend/ downtrend lines, if they've been significant, or recent daily horizontal highs and lows, if the 30 minute lines look vague.

I use similar concepts (80% horizontal lines, 10% trend lines, 10% rectangles).
Also, I add to it the daily open. As an "indicator", I have the ADR not far away.
Yes limiting your losses and letting your winning trades run can help you retire sooner than expected.

Good start to the week on Monday, NY open. But trading Asia open Sunday night would have been much better--getting in on +A, +N trends much earlier, and with little schedule news, and Trump continuing to do crazy things like declaring Canadian steel a "national security threat," long AC, and NC looked good, as did strong, existing daily trends on GA, EA, GN, EN. Should have held these trades to EN 4 hr. Support during NY today--those four trades pushed down and hit that Support 1.5 hours before London closed. Patience, patience....