How do I increase the probability of winning?
Dear Traders,
If we compare trading with lottery games, there would only be 2 numbers in the lottery game. The number 0 and 1. The probability of winning would be 50%. The higher the probability to win, the lower the profit, because every lottery player would have the same chances. However, trading in the forex market looks a bit different. You press on BUY, the price initially moves up but suddenly the price breaks down and the stop prevents further losses.
Although the trader was right in the beginning, he now goes down with losses from the trade. The same rules of the game apply to all participants in the stock market, but there is a big difference if I'm on the market with $ 1,000 or $ 1,000,000 or $ 1,000,000,000.
In Germany, the most typed number in the lottery is the number 19. Why? Because people like to type their birth numbers and most players were born between 1940 and 1999. Likewise, many numbers between 1 and 31 are typed and fewer numbers from 32. The probability of winning does not affect this, but the win rate in case you win. On April 10, 1999, 40,000 players cheered over five correct numbers and each got $ 200 at the end. At that time it was about the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 26. Particularly artistic were the numbers of October 4, 1997: 9, 13, 23, 27, 38, 40. "The crosses on the ticket looked a sign and 134 had six correct numbers.
But the absolute record holds the draw of 23 January 1988. 222 players had the numbers 24, 25, 26 and 30, 31, 32 checked. Of course, the payout was very low.
What can we learn from it?
Well, we can not influence the probability of a win, but the odds if we win. For that we have to type numbers that most people do not type.
The same applies in the forex market. To act differently than most people do. What are the consequences? We need to be guided by successful traders and study their behaviors. What do these successful traders do differently than anyone else? Let's just take a look at their trading screens
Do you see any indicators there, Heikin Ashi or Fibonacci lines? In principle only the pure price chart. Can this work successfully?
MACD, RSI, MA's and all standard indicators should disappear from the screen and pay close attention to the pure price chart. The less distraction there is, the more you can focus on the essentials. The main screen I recommend completely free to draw in your own resistance lines and support lines, which one works out of supply and demand of the market. In addition, I recommend creating your own dashboard. Currency strength, candle strength, trend strength, and the dollar index provide important information and possible projects you are working on.
Now you will say that the big players do not draw any resistance lines and you are absolutely right. But we must not forget an important point, the big players also determine the market. So why should they draw resistance lines if they are the only ones who determine the market.
We small traders do not have these options, so we have to go looking for clues. The big players leave their mark on the market, which can clearly be seen. We must evaluate these traces and use them for our purposes. A successful method for this is supply and demand.
Here is an example in the EURUSD in the 1H chart. I have drawn only a few equilibrium (yellow circle) and then drawn a line. Just look how the course behaves on these lines. Whether this is coincidence or not, derived from this one could have done some nice trades.
I do not know many traders who have geared up their trading strategy only for supply and demand, another reason you may want to consider in the future. I would like to give you 3 quotes in the weekend that are close to my heart.
"Cheap winds can only benefit those who know where they want to go." Oscar Wilde (writer)
"There are more people capitulating than those who fail." Henry Ford (American automaker)
"Be patient, all things are difficult before they become easy." French proverb
I sincerely wish you that you can establish yourself in this tough market.
Best regards
Dear Traders,
If we compare trading with lottery games, there would only be 2 numbers in the lottery game. The number 0 and 1. The probability of winning would be 50%. The higher the probability to win, the lower the profit, because every lottery player would have the same chances. However, trading in the forex market looks a bit different. You press on BUY, the price initially moves up but suddenly the price breaks down and the stop prevents further losses.
Although the trader was right in the beginning, he now goes down with losses from the trade. The same rules of the game apply to all participants in the stock market, but there is a big difference if I'm on the market with $ 1,000 or $ 1,000,000 or $ 1,000,000,000.
In Germany, the most typed number in the lottery is the number 19. Why? Because people like to type their birth numbers and most players were born between 1940 and 1999. Likewise, many numbers between 1 and 31 are typed and fewer numbers from 32. The probability of winning does not affect this, but the win rate in case you win. On April 10, 1999, 40,000 players cheered over five correct numbers and each got $ 200 at the end. At that time it was about the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 26. Particularly artistic were the numbers of October 4, 1997: 9, 13, 23, 27, 38, 40. "The crosses on the ticket looked a sign and 134 had six correct numbers.
But the absolute record holds the draw of 23 January 1988. 222 players had the numbers 24, 25, 26 and 30, 31, 32 checked. Of course, the payout was very low.
What can we learn from it?
Well, we can not influence the probability of a win, but the odds if we win. For that we have to type numbers that most people do not type.
The same applies in the forex market. To act differently than most people do. What are the consequences? We need to be guided by successful traders and study their behaviors. What do these successful traders do differently than anyone else? Let's just take a look at their trading screens
Do you see any indicators there, Heikin Ashi or Fibonacci lines? In principle only the pure price chart. Can this work successfully?
MACD, RSI, MA's and all standard indicators should disappear from the screen and pay close attention to the pure price chart. The less distraction there is, the more you can focus on the essentials. The main screen I recommend completely free to draw in your own resistance lines and support lines, which one works out of supply and demand of the market. In addition, I recommend creating your own dashboard. Currency strength, candle strength, trend strength, and the dollar index provide important information and possible projects you are working on.
Now you will say that the big players do not draw any resistance lines and you are absolutely right. But we must not forget an important point, the big players also determine the market. So why should they draw resistance lines if they are the only ones who determine the market.
We small traders do not have these options, so we have to go looking for clues. The big players leave their mark on the market, which can clearly be seen. We must evaluate these traces and use them for our purposes. A successful method for this is supply and demand.
Here is an example in the EURUSD in the 1H chart. I have drawn only a few equilibrium (yellow circle) and then drawn a line. Just look how the course behaves on these lines. Whether this is coincidence or not, derived from this one could have done some nice trades.
I do not know many traders who have geared up their trading strategy only for supply and demand, another reason you may want to consider in the future. I would like to give you 3 quotes in the weekend that are close to my heart.
"Cheap winds can only benefit those who know where they want to go." Oscar Wilde (writer)
"There are more people capitulating than those who fail." Henry Ford (American automaker)
"Be patient, all things are difficult before they become easy." French proverb
I sincerely wish you that you can establish yourself in this tough market.
Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
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