Institutional Equivalent Education?

I know some people think that it isn't possible, but here are my posts in Ray's room about my trading today:

(10:38 am) Ian Foster: +6% on the inventories for me
(10:40 am) Ian Foster: Daily profit +9.8%, 15 trade parts , 100% winners - Yay!!!
(10:41 am) A G: Great Ian! well done
(10:42 am) Ian Foster: Now it is too dangerous psychologically for me to take anymore today , likely to be overconfident so done for the day !
(10:48 am) Ian Foster: For the wek so far (and for me it was only 2and a half days, +19.2% 43 trade parts, 5 losses , so 88% winners !
(10:51 am) Ian Foster: For the Sammy style Oil inventories 30min markup (50% high Volume Are) currently looking at 71.07 to 71.21 with 10 min still to go before finalsing
(10:51 am) Ian Foster: The above is for the CFD, not a CL contract
(10:53 am) Ian Foster: talking of Sam, we haven't heard from him for about 50 min - I wonder what he is doing - LOL!
(10:53 am) F C: @Ian.... counting money Ian.... COUNTING money

Boris Schlossberg's weekly email is rather boring this week but there is a more interesting bit at the end:

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.....
In reality, backtests make you trade a system that has succeeded in the past but will surely fail in the future and abandon systems that failed in the past but may actually be very profitable in the now.
Instead of backtesting, I prefer to just trade the idea and then through the process of elimination refine and refine and refine. Right now I am working on a short-term mean reversion system and as I eliminate currency pairs, eliminate times of day, eliminate indicator settings, eliminate complex money management structures the system is getting closer to consistent profit.

The other day texted Robbie Booker that I thought there were no bad trading systems, just bad traders. That’s probably my typical hyperbole. But the more I practice the Tao of McConaughey, the more convinced I become that it is much closer to the truth than you think.
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My viewpoint on the above is this:
1. I like backtesting in general, but NOT of EAs. You can manually backtest 'the MAX' and you can manually backtest most of Ray's concepts (but only with at least 2 windows or better still 2 screens). This is 'Proof of Concept'!

2. Proof of Concept only shows that the set-up could be profitable if traded properly.
So yes, there are no bad concepts (out of the ones that Ray teaches, at least), but there are bad traders.

Did I read correctly? 43 trades taken in 1 week by 1 person?

Hi Sampson85,
Trade parts, not trades. Ray teaches that it is hugely stressful (making it psychologically almost impossible to achieve good trade management) to just trade 'Single Unit' i.e All-in and All-out, though a few of his newer students ignore this advice and still do that because they think that they know better. A study was done (I don't have the reference) which showed that Multi-Unit traders have a 5x higher chance of NOT BLOWING UP, than Single unit traders trading the same %Risk on their account.

All the successful students I know of trade multi-unit even if that means trading micro-lots at first. All of those have a trade plan which takes multiple exits because that is the easiest part of Institutional trading that we can emulate. Some trade multi-entry as well, meaning that they try to enter on the last 2 or 3 legs of an Institutional Accumulation before the 'Mark-up', however this requires large accounts since it is difficult to tell when the big boys have accumulated enough size for them to stop capping price and allow it to move.

Ray teaches every style of trading time length from being a Market Maker (if you have access to an Algo), to Scalping, to small swings, to large swings, to Macro Trading, to Seasonal trading.

Personally, I an a News trader and a Open of Session trader. I find that I am more successful when I trade them short-term. Which in Ray's eyes means 'getting out too soon'. For a small swing trade this means:
1. A small T1, 2. A fast move to Break Even on the remainder, 3. A modest T2 (usually just before the 'breakout level') , 4. A T3 of nearly the 'measured Move' and if if I am trying to catch a larger trend then I hold a 5th unit as a 'runner'.

So while some students make less than 1 trade per day, some even do less than 1 per week, I usually do over 100 trade parts per week.
Unless I have a psych episode, I usually have a better than 90% win rate per trade and a better than 70% win rate per part trade.

There is no automation (such a trade manager) available for my Broker (which was chosen for fixed tight spreads). So I have to manage every trade completely manually. But yes, I only took 43 trade parts in two and a half days (I was travelling for most of Tuesday).

These are the trade parts in question (plus a few more):

https://gyazo.com/991d7a1e72f407c488771e3ccbce9b96
https://gyazo.com/5d56f2a4c939b3325af7ad73e0a6707b
https://gyazo.com/0264e7c1822eb4a2b3294f133bc15820
https://gyazo.com/2d5eeda6366a6b9215d04afa48ea7818
https://gyazo.com/ab18c4360b3b14b8969763beadfa84a3

Here is something that gives a 'flavour' of Ray's live room.
A relatively new student was asking about something Ray had said, but he left it too late and so Ray had left the room:


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(12:36 pm) Paul P: Ray would you say that value is only valid during London session
(12:38 pm) Ian Foster: @Paul P: Why would you think that. IT DEPENDS - upon which value line, which market , which day of week , day of month etc.
(12:41 pm) Paul P: @IAN F: Ray mentionned that after 4:00 PM LDN the value was no longer valid , so I wanted some clarification.
(12:45 pm) Ian Foster: @Paul: For a market which uses a London traded Value Line then after 4 any london traded part of it goes flat. Similarly with other Value lines based on markets that trade in other timezi=ones - when it stops trading that part of Vaklue line goes flat. Also Vast majority Don't want to hold big positions over weekend, want to Square Book over Month end - when they need to exit depoends upon in which session the main volume for that market is.

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I have edited out the student's last name but that is all, so please excuse the typing errors.

CompassFX have now got a tentative start date for Ray's upcoming course - it is 11th June. The plan is for it to run for 1 month, but Ray will not skimp, so it might even be longer!

Here is the main part of their email from Kim Pingleton:
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Compass Trading ([email protected])To:you Details
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here

Hello Ian

“Astonishing”

That’s what Mel said about his first day with Ray, “I have never heard this before” WOW! is what Marc had to say...exactly what you want to hear from new students, you want an impact.

Marc also sent me a message after he watched a session I recommended and said his mind was absolutely blown away!

He is feeling very optimistic about his future trading, he said just one session with Ray and you know he is very different...he has spent 11 years training and said he has never heard someone like Ray.

Several of the new students that joined Ray recently have given him very high praise and we have not even officially started class yet, YES!

A warm welcome to our most recent new students, Lyle, Larry, Mel, Wayne, TH, Marc, Rob, Rudy, Jen and Roosevelt.

Many traders have said over the years...boy if I only knew how good Ray was, I would have joined him much sooner. TRUTH.

You too? Well, here is your chance to take advantage of this Early Bird Offer and JOIN Ray NOW.

Got questions? Let’s talk Skype: ForexKim or [email protected]

I have been receiving many inquiries about working with Ray, what is he going to cover, when will the upcoming class start, when do I get access...what is included with class, are the sessions recorded, what happens after the class, what markets will he cover, these are just a few of the questions I have been receiving so I thought I should send out an email with more details about the class and what to expect.

Actually...I really like the opportunity to speak with potential new students about working with Ray and share details about the program and see where they are with their trading.

See if this program is the right fit for them and their trading, this is important.

This program is not for everyone, it truly is a deep dive into the markets at an institutional level.

What is Ray going to cover...more like, what is he not going to cover :-)

Here is a brief overview of what Ray will cover and what you will learn.

Technicals - the auction process - how to draw levels - price action - deltas - volume range analysis - market profile - two main institutional set ups (fade and liquidity hunt) - order flow analysis - program trades and targets

Forex - global market movers - curves, fundamentals - market maker levels

Index Trading - the ES - market internals - drivers - how to recognize corrections before they happen

Oil and Gold - market drivers - crack spread - relative value trading

Bonds - spreads, outrights and the hunt for the grail, bond and curve logic

When will the actual class start and when do I get access if I JOIN NOW?

The New Institutional Trade Program will start next month, we are looking at a tentative date of Monday June 11th and it will run for about a month with daily class sessions and our regular daily trade sessions.

If you join during the Early Bird Access you get access to On-Demand Sessions from the previous class, the 3 Day Workshop and the Sharp Edge Training Camp held last August plus you can also attend the current Daily Trade Sessions and our ongoing Training Sessions which gives you valuable time prepping for the upcoming class and, also additional time with Ray in the room which traders always rave about.

Live Trade Session at 8:00 am eastern (Ray opens the room during the London Session and provides commentary as his schedule permits, official session starts at 8:00 am eastern)

Daily Focus Training Session around 11:00 am eastern (Recorded)

New Class Session – class sessionswill be at 3:00 pm eastern (Recorded, excludes Wednesday)

Training Sessions and Class Sessions are recorded, available On-Demand in the members area.

If you work or you are not present for the session live, you can access the session in the room and get the sessions on-demand once they are uploaded in the members area.

What happens after the class and what tools or resources are needed?

Ray is planning the New Class to last about a month, once the new class sessions are finished students have continued access to the recordings and an opportunity to continue their training by adding a monthly subscription, an all access subscription which includes the Live Trade Session as well as an ongoing Daily Focus Training Session with Ray for $250 monthly or a Recordings Subscription for $125 each month.

Sharp Edge Traders with an active subscription, an all access or a recordings subscription receive access to new class sessions and recordings by Ray.

Ray also provides market commentary, institutional insight along with trade ideas on Twitter through his site Smart Alpha for $50 monthly...a valuable resource to Sharp Edge Traders.

Many traders in the group use Sierra Charts so they can trade both the spot market and futures. David, one of the traders in the group has developed an indicator package available exclusively for our traders. Good to have super talented, skilled traders in the group providing tools that fit what Ray teaches!

If you currently use MT4, Ninja, Trading View or other resources, Ray showcases many platforms, it is not about a specific platform, indicator or tool...knowledge is power.

Ray is adamant that traders learn the “why”, have a narrative for their trading so the tools are just an “assistant” to make trading easier, not a crutch to rely on...you need to know, not gamble or hope.
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I caught 2 good trades this morning. This one short G/U on the UK CPI numbers was particularly obvious before the news came out:



Note that the time on the chart is GMT, so the news came out at 08:30 on this chart (= 09:30 British Summer Time).

30 pips in less than 5 minutes

Oil Inventories chat in Ray's live room:
(10:11 am) Bruce : Oil Liquidity for me is 72.20 down to 71.80 with price hovering around fv

*** the release came out at 10:30 room time *************************
(10:35 am) Ian Foster: I managed 7.8%; on the inventory : 6 trade patrs, all winners
(10:36 am) L W: got me Ian I'm 6.7%

I was in my trade for a little under 3 minutes.
Note that I don't have to wait for the spread to settle because although I trade the CFD, I use a fixed spread Broker.

Here is a value chart showing how easy it was - some even got in before the news !

https://gyazo.com/0d3fb183662f2e73c09b8e0475d6bdb7

The arrows go from the close of the 30min API Inventory level last night ( = US Close for the CL contract) to the close of the last 30min candle before the EIA Inventories release i.e less than 1 second before the release.

Hi Ian,

Thanks for sharing all you have. I'm interested in joining your self-help group. Do I need to sign up for Ray's class first?

Hi Trend4money,
Most of what is shared within my self help group is unique (or almost so) to Ray's teaching, thus if we allow a non-student to join we would be breaking the NDA we signed with Ray and CompasFX.

So yes in order to qualify for membership of the Ray's Students Self Help Group, you have to A). Sign up for a 'complete class' with Ray ( not a 'taster class' such as the 3 day one last year); and B). Agree to follow our sensible rules.

I prefer to wait until a student has signed the Non-Disclosure Agreement before configuring them in our group, but if Compass agree I will add them without waiting for that.

I still don't have a firm date for the next course, so the provisional date of 11th June may slip to allow enough time for CompassFx do do their marketing.

Here is an example of a student sharing her view of the Macro situation for Eur/Usd. It was posted in our Group Skype just after midnight London time on 3th May - i.e. very early this morning. She also provided her charts and details as to where to find recordings of Ray covering the Month-end book balancing.

On 30/05/2018 at 00:15, Jennifer E**** wrote:
> Seems like all of the talking heads have signalled the death of the eurusd. But, thanks to Ray's teaching on book balancing, I think we're going to see some upside soon. This is not a trade recommendation.
Here are the related lessons: http://www.compass*****.com/curricul...veMembersArea/
03-29-18 Daily Focus Session – Month/Quarter End Book Balancing – Volume/Candle Analysis – Climatic Condition (1 hours 30 mins)
05-04-18 Daily Focus Session – Book Balancing – Levels 1&2 – Liquidity (1 hours 17 mins)

I would never suggest that anybody trade on such information, but here is how it was possible to use Jennifer's tip and make up to 100 pips from the London Open candle (08:00 London time) to the London Close candle (16:30 London Time):
https://gyazo.com/8e1e28f773e29232c320713d1ff4c7f9

Some useful thoughts from another (Commercial) thread:

Some wise words from Boris Schlossberg based upon his experience in the early 1990's:

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Simple, Not Easy
by Boris Schlossberg
Markets are simple, not easy. There are really only two trades -- continuity or mean reversion. Ultimately, all of your financial success depends much more on market regime rather than any specific strategy. That’s why guys like Richard Dennis could take $400 to $200 million in the early 1970s and 1980 ’s and then puke it all back in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.
I still remember as a young pup at Drexel Burnham being told to sell the s-t of out Dennis’s fund because the guy was “genius”. He, of course, managed to blow up every single dollar of the $80 million Drexel raised for him, some of it on remarkably stupid plays like selling out of the money puts on the last day of expiry -- a move that is more a hallmark of dentist trading his TD Ameritrade account, then the “Prince of the Pits”. By the 1990’s he had blown up his second trading fund and was never heard from again.
Dennis of course, like so many of the “genius” turtles, was a very fortunate beneficiary of a very unique market regime. Late 1970’s and 1980’s saw price persistence in commodities that was never to be seen again. Trends worked because prices went only one way for a very long time. Once the regime changed to mean reversion with its bewildering twists and turns, trend trading lost all of its luster. Suffice it to say that if turtle traders showed up 15 years late to the game you would never hear or know about any of them. That’s why all of their strategies are less than useless now, generating nothing but losses and commissions. The few rare wins never cover the multitude of losses created by fake breakouts.
Market regime can make the stupidest people look brilliant and the smartest people look like idiots. Right now your uncle Morty, who has been investing all his 401-K money in SPY, is ready to light a fat Cuban with a hundred dollar bill and celebrate the fact that he has beaten every hedge fund in the world by 1000 basis points every year for the past decade running.
Everywhere you look, the advice from every financial advisor is to just buy the index and you will be rich by retirement. I may not know much, but after 35 years on Wall Street, I do know one thing. If everyone is telling you to do something, it has to be the single worst advice you can take. The market has been in an uninterrupted rally for 10 years. Buying the index is simply believing that this trend will persist.
Allow me to take you back to 1966 to 1981 -- a period of 15 years during which the Dow just traded back and forth around 1000 destroying more wealth than at any time since the Great Depression. Or perhaps you would like to consider the Nikkei which has not made it back to its old highs in 40 years and still trades for half its peak value. If Japan is the social vanguard of the industrialized world, where adult diapers outsell the baby ones, then perhaps this is our future as well?
Or perhaps, you will remember my own lovely experience in “responsible” investing when I happened to buy 529 funds for my kid’s college education right at the peak of the Internet bubble. The total cumulative return? 2.49%. Not per year. Total over the 12 years those funds stayed invested. Yes, I know that funds would have probably doubled had I held them til now, but I needed the money for college then. I couldn’t tell the schools -- oh please wait another five years and capital returns will be sure to kick in and I will pay your tuition in full. I am good for it.
If the market takes a swan dive from which it doesn’t come back this, I am afraid may be the fate of many investors who are blindly following the index route. Buy the f-king dip is just a strategy -- just like the turtle strategy and it will lose its value eventually. Markets are simple, but they are not easy.
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The only thing I would like to point out in Boris' article above is that he is ONLY talking about Technical Analysis strategies. By adding Fundamentals and Sentiment to some basic Tech Analysis, you can have the right strategy for the current market conditions - no matter that they keep changing!
But certainly any trader or even 'investor' who sticks with a fixed TA based strategy is just a gambler.

The key to long term survival in trading is just the same as the key to minimising losses on losing trades - recognise when you/your strategy is wrong. Be flexible and keep your risk manageable.
The goal of a trader when the market nature changes is exactly the same as that of a novice trader:
Trade small and minimise risk in order to stay 'in the game' long enough for you to get good at trading the current market conditions!

I have just realised that some people may not understand what Boris was saying about selling the s**t out of Richard Dennis fund.

Boris was not a trader at Drexel, he was what americans call a broker - what europeans would call a salesman!
Thus he was instructed to sell the fund to all his clients and contacts.

That is the way that things usually work out with strategies based upon Technical Analysis: It takes so long to 'prove' that the strategy works, that by the time it is heavily promoted it is already past its 'sell by date' because the 'personality' of the markets has changed.

Thanks for all of the valuable insights offered on this blog. I am starting Ray's class next month, listening in on the morning briefing, and making my way through the CompassFX recordings from last year. A lot to learn, for sure, but energized by it all. It makes sense.

Question about charting software: Given Ray's approach to trading and all of the dynamic pieces of information he is analyzing simultaneously, which charting software has the best tool set and ease of us to accommodate this style of trading? Sierra Charts? TradingView, other?

Thanks for your input.

David, from my own experience and from what I heard Ray will implement some specific indi's made by David in the upcoming course, I think Sierra Charts will be your best choice.

Smithdavid,
I think that Sam is right in that ultimately Sierra Chart with David T's additions will be the best overall charting package (though it must be SC package 5 or equivalent).

However the best charting package for a trader depends a great deal on which markets they trade, which correlated market plots they require and also the trader's trading style.
For example I know that some 'OrderFlow' traders are primarily using Bookmap or Jigsaw; some are using Ninja with either NOFT or OFA ( but would probably go with SC and OFten if they were deciding right now). Some other types of traders think that TradingView gives all that they need. Personally I am usually a late adopter and so I am still using both SC and TradingView.

The only thing that I would advise against is using just MT4, unless you are a longer term trader. Because for Trading Institutional style on up to 15min charts it really isn't up to the standard we need.

I was disappointed that even after trading the Oil Inventories for over 3 yrs, both Sam and I read the signs for the post release period direction wrong. I made a profit on the release trading to the short side, where I was selling tops and Ray was buying bottoms. Ray was paying more attention to 'value' and his reading of the intentions of the 'Bigs' versus me paying more attention to the bad numbers and what was happening right then.
Still I made a profit of exactly +2.5% having only just recovered my PC from an application hanging it up, so not too shabby.

From the Skype he sent me it looks as though Sam was able to do more trading and make a profit after Ray had set us straight on the intention of the 'Bigs':

“How about this Ian?
https://gyazo.com/b8ebc5605ff123010e43b576dbefd37c”
Sam ******** 06/06/2018 20:43

Don't agree on that, Ian. What I was showing is what I always do after the inventories. Draw the 50% level on the 30min candle(the purple area).