EURUSD MultiTimeFrame

Bar 3: a very weak Low 1 signal for bears.
Bar 4: Failed Low 1 (Entry Failure) and immediate bull spike, first target reached.

Out with profit, reversed to short as a Two-Bar Reversal formed in a Double Top bear flag.

Exited the short with small loss on pulback as Second Entry Sell failed.

TODAY's OUTLOOK

Looks very choppy and volatile on higher timeframes, H1 and M15. The bears had some great moments last week and looks like they are eager to re-establish their positions, but the question is at what level. Today I'm just looking at it as a potential expanding range (not bull trend just yet despite current price action), which may go either way and produce some nice swift swings for both bulls and bears. This is corroborated on D1, where we are in the middle of a Pullback to MA, so mid-range and anything can happen. So, in the absence of strong and fast tick action and drive, I'd rather trade breakout failures than chase breakouts.

To help me focus and stay disciplined and avoid at least some nonsense trades (I did take a few last Friday despite a very neat a.m. session) I've created a trade explorer linked to this thread.

Today's first trade was an excellent Multi-Timeframe entry, of which I'd like to do more.

On M15, we saw Signal Bar 1 as a very weak Low 2 signal for a short, in defence of the already broken bear trend line in a Bull Flag. This was likely to fail.

On M5, we got a strong High Two signal reversing that failed breakout. The Signal Bar was good on its own, with a Close Near High, but it was also an Inside-Outside-Inside reversal signal. Produced a nice scalp up.

Currently holding a short from High of Day and added after Bar 3, which was a nice Shaved Bar Follow Through on the bear spike below MA, indicating a sell vacuum and likely flipping to Always-In Short.

Bar 6: Low 1 for bears, but bull Close, a weak Signal Bar, yet in a chase, so added more to short. BE position in. The H1 MA20 magnet is right below at the M5 swing lows, so may produce a selloff.

Bar 7: Failed Low 1, tending bull bodies, stopped out of latest entries near BE, and exited part of swing short.
NOTE: High of the Day does not look like a strong bear reversal yet, may be re-tested.

Bars 8-9: Very weak High/High 3 entry (bear doji), stopped out bear chasers may want back in, so re-entered short for possible stop run to H1 MA. Stops tight. Bar 9 closed as Low 2 Signal Bar, but bull close, so a weak signal. On the other hand, bear chase still in progress, may still work.

Bar 10: No Low 2 entry triggered, bull close, Bull Micro Channel formed by now on M5 and M15, bull Breakout likely, just leaving the stops to be hit. BEAR CHASE TURNING INTO BEAR STOP HUNT

Bar 14: still in. Moved the stops just 1.5 pips or so and, alas, they were not taken out and the bears are back in the game.
Bar 15: strong MicroChannel break, but may still test back at the MA before tanking to H1 EMA20.

SEEING A STRONG HIGH 3 SETUP ON M15 (inside outside inside), watching on M5 for bear failure to switch to long.

Bar 21: previous two bars failed as Low 1 and Low 1 Second Entry, and Bar 21 closed near High, break of bear TL, bears may be covering, entered long for a HOD retest.

Bar 23: very interesting. A Breakout Failure for bulls, but bulls did not have a strong signal below, so many bull chasers may be willing to enter as the bear reversal triggers and run stops to a new HOD. Tighened stop and added a buy stop above 23. Looks like a recipe for a good bull spike.

Bar 24: Strong Entry Bar for bears on Lower High, added to the long lower and both entries were stopped out with a loss.

Bar 27: Strong Low 1 entry for the chasing bears, the reversal failure failed and opens the downside. Sold on Bar 27, took four-pip scalp, holding for the lows. Flipping to Always-In Short.

Bar 29: Bear Spike in progress, looking for measured move down.

Bar 31: strong two-bar reversal for bulls, a High 4 setup, may fail of course, will reverse to long if triggered above. WAS NOT TRIGGERED, Canceled the buy stop.

Bar 34: Low 1 Failure, Second Signal Long, entering long upon trigger above.

Reversed to Long, still seeing the whole of today as a big range, a swing to HOD still possible.

Bar 38: a very painful Low 2 failure for the bears, Close On High, flipping to Always-In Long, added to the long for a scalp with trailing overall BE stops.

Bars 40-41: Strong Low 3 Signal Bar for bears, followed by a strong Entry Bar, exited part of the longs, a second leg up likely, but need a bull signal bar now.

Bar 50 was a strong Low 4 Second Entry signal for the bears, took that one as a small scalp, almost BE. Now back to Long as got a Higher Low Signal on M15 coupled with a High 1 Entry Bar currently triggering on H1.

SCRATCHED IT, calling it a day.

TODAY's OUTLOOK

Seeing the H1 range at the 20 EMA is the main magnet today. On D1 we see a contracting range above EMA 20, still Always-In Long, but bears are clearly positioning, so big moves and range fakeouts are likely. Looking to fade those fake moves as they form big ups and downs and potentially form expanding triangles, buy low sell high. Had my first fade sequence already, holding from BE.

Bar 1: Low 2 Failure at the MA for bears, strong bull Inside-Outside-Inside signal, added to the long, BE in. A Failed Low 2 setup

Bar 3: Low 2 Second Entry, bulls trapped, but this is small bear doji, looking to stop out with small loss or a bull spike. STOPPED OUT.

Bar 5: A High One for a third push up, but a doji and back into the range, likely a bull trap, reversed to Short.

Bar 7: Tight Trading Range, signals look perfect but don't lead to spikes... Holding the short from BE.

Bar 29: Big Up Big Down equals range. There was a test of the bull Breakout Point, and in the absence of support, a vacuum spike to the fresh bull Trend Line. The Breakout point now serves as support turned resistance, but is likely to be tested, so looking for a scalp up, after which bears may or may not wish to dump more. The drive from Bar 25 was very strong, including microgaps, the measured move would be far below the fresh bull trend line, if it is broken. If it is not broken, the bears may capitulate, allowing another leg up, at least to below the bear trendline in the contracting triangle.

Bars 52-54: a Failed Low One entry in progress, some bears trapped. Took profit on my swing position as it went down, but re-entered long for a breakout.

Bar 54: Low 1 Failure Failed, bears taking over, looking to exit or stop out.

Hello StopRunFX

I was checking out your thread and determined that you have experience with John Grady's work. Can you comment on it? Is it worth the effort and money to learn DOM. I appreciate your time and response.

Cheers

Back to trading and journaling after a while. Today was a break-even day, lots of signals (at least three on multiple timeframes), but none produced more than just three or four pips in reality. Went long on the last push up in hopes of a reversal finally.

Today's perfect multi-timeframe setup, where things aligned nicely on three charts:
M5: Failed High 3 Second Entry, ending up right under EMA
M15: Weak Double Bottom signal countertrend right under EMA, trapping many bulls
H1: Strong Low 2 signal bar right under EMA.

Hi stophunt78, I haven't studied John Grady's method and do not use DOM, only charts. I did use it for a short while, but it didn't work for me on its own and I went back to the price action method on the chart. I think PA helps see market structure more clearly.

Today was just another proof of the uselessness of fundamentals in trading. Great NFP figures came out, but they did not lead to a massive selloff in EURUSD, the euro even went up a little instead... And it's not the first time, there was a similar situation on 3 Feb with US industrial numbers. Well, a just above BE day today.