Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

How US Decision on Iran Deal May Affect Crude Oil Price

On Tuesday at 2 PM Eastern Time, U.S President Donald Trump is expected to announce decision whether he will withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Trump has long been known to criticize the 2015 accord, known as JCPA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and threatened to walk away from the landmark deal. The deal was originally signed by Iran, the Obama Administration., Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany, and European Union.

Trump is widely expected to withdraw the United States from the agreement. A withdrawal from the accord could potentially elevate geopolitical tension in the Middle East as well as create Oil’s supply shock. The world powers stiffened sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program in 2012, resulting in reduction of Iran’s oil production and exports by approximately a million barrels a day. Since the 2015 accord, the curbs were removed and production has rebounded back to current 4 million barrels of Oil a day. Reimposing the sanctions can reduce Iranian oil exports back by up to 1 million barrels a day.

Crude future continues to climb in recent months due to the prospect of U.S. withdrawal. Ahead of the Trump’s decision, U.S. Light Crude Oil Futures trades at $70. If the U.S. decides to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration must decide on whether to wield US sanctions to punish countries that continue to do business with Iran. However, the market may still find ways to circumvent US sanctions. Iran for example can trade in the brand new Chinese yuan-denominated crude oil futures on Shanghai International Energy Exchange, thereby circumventing dollar-denominated trade and U.S banks.
Should the US go ahead and withdraw from Iran’s nuclear deal, it may create sustainable increase in Oil price. On the other hand, if the U.S. attempts to delay the decision on the deal to buy time, then there could be reaction lower in Oil price.
Short Term Crude Oil Future (CL_F) Elliott Wave Analysis on May 4

Crude Oil Future (CL_F) continues to extend higher after ending Minor wave X pullback as a FLAT at $66.85. It is now showing a short term bullish sequence from Intermediate wave (2) low at $61.86 on April 6 low. Furthermore, the rally from Minor wave X at $66.85 appears impulsive with extension in Minute wave (iii), suggesting further upside is likely
Short Term Crude Oil Future (CL_F) Elliott Wave Analysis on May 8


After ending Minor wave X pullback at $66.86, the rally is proposed to be unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure where wave ((a)) ended at 70.84 and wave ((b)) is also proposed to be over at 67.63. As rally from 66.86 low was an impulse so we are expecting 67.63 and more importantly 66.86 low to hold for another rally towards 71.62 – 72.56 area at least.
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CADJPY Elliott Wave View: Calling Strength Higher

CADJPY Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 4/13 peak at 85.76 to 83.87 low ended Intermediate wave (2) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. The internal subdivision of the decline from 85.76 high shows an overlapping structure. This suggests the decline is corrective in nature. We label the correctin as W-X-Y.
Down from 4/13 peak (85.76), Minor wave W unfolded as a Zigzag Elliott wave structure. Minute wave ((a)) of W ended at 84.88, Minute wave ((b)) of W ended at 85.17 high, and Minute wave ((c)) of W ended at 84.27 low. Up from there, Minor wave X bounce also unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) of X ended at 85.31, Minute wave ((x)) of X ended at 84.74 and Minute wave ((y)) of X ended at 85.74. The internal of Minor wave Y subdivided as a zigzag structure. Minute wave ((a)) of Y ended at 84.36, Minute wave ((b)) of Y ended at 85, and Minute wave ((c)) of Y ended at 83.87 low. The move lower to 83.87 also ended Intermediate wave (2) upon reaching 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of Minor W-X at 83.91 – 84.26.
Above from there, the pair has made a strong rally to the upside in an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Due to the 5 waves impulse, it favors the continuation higher in Intermediate wave (3). However, a break above 4/13 high 85.75 is needed for the final confirmation of the next leg higher. Until then, a double correction lower in intermediate wave (2) still can’t be ruled out. Near-term, as far as dips remain above 83.87 low, expect pair to resume higher. We don’t like selling it.
CADJPY Elliott Wave 1 hour Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

FTSE Next Bullish Primary Degree may have started

FTSE Super Cycle Sequence


$ FTSE Index shows a 5 swing Primary degree sequence from 2009 low to 2018 high. A 5 swing is an incomplete sequence and needs to see at least another leg higher to end a 7 swing sequence. A 5 swing sequence is not the same as 5 waves impulse. Since the rally from 2009 low is corrective, the sequence of interest is 3-7-11 swing which applies to corrective structure. Corrective structure runs in 3-7-11 sequence which is based on the Lucas number.
$ FTSE started the sequence from 2009 low like most other World Indices. Up from there, $ FTSE rallied in 3 swing (corrective) and ended Primary degree swing #3 / Cycle degree swing #1 in 2015 high. The Index then corrects the rally from 2009 low. It ended the correction in Primary degree swing #4 / Cycle degree swing #2 on 2.2016 low. From 2016 low, we should see a similar rally equal in length to the rally from 2009 low to 2015 high.
With the break above 2015 peak, $FTSE is showing 5 swing sequence in Primary degree from 2009 low. Within corrective sequence, 5 swing is an incomplete sequence. FTSE therefore needs to see at least 1 more leg higher to finish 7 swing. Thus the question is not whether Indices are bullish or bearish. Based on the sequence, the right side is clear and it is Bullish. The question is whether FTSE has ended Primary degree swing #6 and whether the next Primary degree swing #7 has started.
4 Hour reaction looking impulsive

As the 4 hour chart above shows, the rally from 6867.06 low appears impulsive. As an alternate view, the 5 waves rally can be part of a FLAT from the lows at 2.9.2018. In this alternate view, the Index can then extend lower 1 more leg. However, due to how strong the rally is and how it almost breaks Primary degree cycle #5, an extension lower to the extreme 100% will just be a retest of the lows. It makes more sense to think that the correction and thus Primary degree cycle #6 has ended instead at 6867.06
If that’s indeed the case, we expect all World Indices to make new all time highs and $FTSE can be leading the turn higher. We keep recommending members of www.Elliottwave-forecast.com not to sell the World Indices, but waiting for opportunities to get into a Multi year bullish cycle. The Following blog was done in early February 2018: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/sto...ces-2020-2022/ and we show our view of another continuation higher. We believe in The Right Side and we have no doubt there’s more upside in the World Indices.

Oil Elliott Wave Analysis: Forecasting And Trading The Rally

In this blog, I want to share some short-term Elliott Wave charts of Crude Oil which we presented to our members in the past. Below, you see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 05/02/18 calling for more upside after ending the correction to the cycle from 09/04/18 in an Elliott Wave Flat correction in black ((a))-((b)).
Oil ended the cycle from 09/04 low, at the high of around 69.60 (04/19 peak) in red wave W. Up from there, it started a pullback to correct the cycle from 09/04/18. The pullback unfolded as a flat structure in black wave ((a))-((b)). Due to the bullish sequence stamp, we advised members that the right side remains to the upside. Therefore, we suggested members buying Oil at the equal legs of 66.93-65.42. You can see in the chart, that oil already bounced higher from that area. Therefore, we went with the more aggressive view, in calling the correction in red wave X completed.
Crude Oil 05.02.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

In the last Elliott Wave chart, you can see that Oil rallied to the upside, confirming that red wave X was in place. The rally is currently unfolding as 5 waves impulsive from 05/01/18 low. So any trade from the equal legs 66.93-65.42 areas should be risk-free by now, targeting higher levels. As long as the market stays above 66.87, it should continue its rally.
Crude Oil 05.04.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


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EURJPY Forecasting The Decline After Elliott Wave Flat

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURJPY published in members area of the website. As our members know, the pair has been trading lately within Elliott Wave Flat structure. In further text we’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern. Before we take a look at the real market expample of Expanded Flat, let’s explain the pattern in a few words.
Elliott Wave Expanded Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which could often be seen in the market nowadays. Inner subdivision is labeled as A,B,C , with inner 3,3,5 structure. Waves A and B have forms of corrective structures like zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Third wave C is always 5 waves structure, either motive impulse or ending diagonal pattern. It’s important to notice that in Expanded Flat Pattern wave B completes below the start point of wave A, and wave C ends above the ending point of wave A which makes it Expanded. Wave C of expanded completes usually close to 1.236 Fibonacci extension of A related to B, but sometimes it could go up to 1.618 fibs ext.
At the graphic below, we can see what Expanded Flat structure looks like.

EURJPY Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 4.18.2018
Current view suggests cycle from the 03/05 low is unfolding as Elliott Wave Expanded Flat Structure. Cycle is mature and we have already reached extremes from the 03/05 and 03/23 lows. Equal legs from the 03/23 low comes at 132.64-133.37 ( marked blue box) . Although cycle can complete any moment, there is no any sign yet confirming Expanded Flat structure is done. So, we see possibility of another short term leg up toward 1.236 Fib extension , approximately: 133.73 area.

EURJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 05.05.2018
Eventually we got leg higher wave 5 of (C) which has broken slightly above 1.236 fib extension ( 133.37). Expanded Flat completed on April 24th at 133.49 high and we got the decline.
Note: blue box on the chart below comes little lower comparing to previous chart as marked area is extreme zone from the 03/05 low.
We have deleted some labelings from the charts above in order to protect clients privileges. Keep in mind not every char is Trading Signal. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



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GBPNZD Elliott Wave View: Ending an Impulse Move
GBPNZD short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the rally to 1.9758 on 4/26 high ended Intermediate wave (A). Down from there, Intermediate wave (B) remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. The internals of each leg in double three (WXY) sub-divides into 3 waves corrective sequence and usually is the combination of two corrective patterns i.e Flat, Zigzag, triangle etc.
Down from 1.9758 high, Minor wave W ended as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure (5-3-5) where Minute wave ((a)) ended at 1.9407, Minute wave ((b)) ended at 1.9582, and Minute wave ((c)) of W ended at 1.925. Above from there, the pair bounced higher in Minor wave X with internals also unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((a)) of X ended at 1.9472, Minute wave ((b)) of X ended at 1.9376 and Minute wave ((c)) of X ended at 1.9648 high.
Below from there, the pair is expected to resume lower in Minor wave Y of (B) as a zigzag structure. Minute wave ((a)) of Y is in progress looking for another extension lower towards 1.9261 – 1.9335, which is 0.618%-0.764% Fibonacci extension area of Minor wave W-X from Intermediate wave (A). Afterwards, the pair should bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings in Minute wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 5/10 high before pair resumes lower again.
GBPNZD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

How Bullish is US Dollar?


The strength in US Dollar (DXY) in the past two months prompts the question: Has US Dollar resumed the bullish trend? In this video and analysis below, we explain and rank the most likely path in the DXY. We use the $USDPLN (Poland Zloty) to explain the most likable path:


We start our analysis by looking at USDPLN and notice that it’s correlated very well with DXY. We also notice that USDPLN broke below a 10 year channel from July 2008 low. This fact gives a higher probability that USDPLN could see at least another leg lower. It has rallied in the past two months to retest the broken channel and looks to be rejected last week. If USDPLN resumes lower, then we could conclude the DXY should do the same because of the positive correlation. The break below 2008 channel then favors the idea of further downside in USDPLN and DXY.
15 year Dollar Cycle Chart

We also look at the 15 year cycle in US Dollar in explaining the likely path in DXY. We wrote about 15 year Dollar cycle in our previous article. US Dollar may have ended the last 15 year peak in year 2017. If this interpretation is correct, this suggests that US Dollar could see a multi-year decline to year 2024 – 2025, thus favoring further downside in US Dollar.
Scenario 1: A double correction before US Dollar Resumes Weakness

In the first scenario, USDPLN and DXY have ended cycle from 1/26/2018 low as Cycle degree wave “w”. In the next few weeks, we should see a bigger pullback in cycle degree wave “x” in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct the rally from 1/26/2018 low. Afterwards, they will do another leg higher in Cycle degree wave “y” of (x) before US Dollar weakness resumes.
Scenario 2: US Dollar Correction is Over and It Can Resume Weakness

In the second scenario, the rally in past two months ended correction to the cycle from December 2016 high. In this case, USDPLN ended Super Cycle wave (x) bounce at 3.633 on May 9, and will resume weaknesses to new low while bounce stays below there. US Dollar (DXY) should follow along accordingly and resume weakness to new low due to the positive correlation.
Scenario 3: USDPLN and DXY do a FLAT with Another Leg Higher before Weakness Resumes

In Scenario 3, USDPLN and Dollar Index (DXY) are still correcting cycle from December 2016 high in the form of Flat Elliott Wave structure. In this case, we could see another push higher to end the Flat structure before USDPLN and DXY resume weakness to new low or at least pullback in 3 waves.
Scenario 4: US Dollar Has Resumed the Bullish Trend

We think that scenario 4 is the least likely scenario based on two considerations:

1. USDPLN broke below 2008 channel support, favoring further downside
2. US Dollar can be ending 15 year cycle peak in year 2017

In Scenario 4, USDPLN and US Dollar (DXY) resume the bullish trend and go to new high.
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USDCAD Elliott Wave View: Correction May Fail for Extension Lower

USDCAD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 1.2998 on May 08,2018 high ended Primary wave ((2)). The internals of Primary wave ((2)) unfolded as a Zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.29. Afterwards, the sideways consolidation to 1.2837 low ended Intermediate wave (B) as a triangle Elliott Wave structure and rally to 1.2998 high ended Intermediate wave (C) of ((2)).
Down from there, Primary wave ((3)) remains in progress as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure. Internals of Wave (1) of ((3)) subdivided as an impulse structure of a lesser degree. Minor wave 1 ended at 1.2937, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.2975, Minor wave 3 ended at 1.2741 low. Minor wave 4 ended at 1.2814 and Minor wave 5 of (1) ended at 1.2725 low. Above from there, Intermediate wave (2) of ((3)) remains in progress to correct cycle from 5.8.2018 high and expected to do a double correction in 7 swing structure.
Near-term focus remain towards 1.2821 – 1.2839, which is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension area of ((w))-((x)), to end Minor wave W. Pair should then do a 3 wave pullback in Minor wave X before another leg higher in Minor wave Y of (2) takes place. As far as a pivot at 5.8 high (1.2998) remains intact, pair should eventually resume lower. We don’t like buying the pair into the proposed rally.

USDCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis: Strength Can Be Temporary

EURUSD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline to 1.1821 on 5/09/2018 low ended Primary wave ((3)). The move lower came from 4/17/2018 peak as a 5 waves impulse structure. Above from 1.1821, pair ended the correction of cycle from 4/17/2018 high in Primary wave ((4)) at 1.1997. The internals of that rally unfolded as Elliott Wave Double three structure. Intermediate wave (W) of ((4)) ended at 1.1946 as zigzag, pullback to 1.1874 ended Intermediate wave (X), and rally to 1.1997 high ended intermediate wave (Y) of ((4)).
Down from there, the pair already broke to new low below 1.1821 confirming the next leg lower in primary wave ((5)) has started. The internals of the decline is unfolding as Elliott Wave impulse structure with lesser degree subdivision of each leg down as 5 waves structure. Intermediate wave (1) is currently in progress as 5 waves where Minor wave 1 ended at 1.1909, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.194, Minor wave 3 ended at 1.1819 and Minor wave 4 ended at 1.1875.
Near-term focus remains towards 1.1806-1.1784 to end Minor wave 5 of (1) lower. Afterwards, pair should bounce in Intermediate wave (2) to correct cycle from 1.1997 high in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further downside is seen. However, in case of further extension in Minor wave 5 of (1), the pair can see 1.1789-1.1769, which is 100%-123.6% 5=1 Fibonacci extension area where Minor wave 5 = Minor wave 1. before Intermediate wave (2) bounce takes place. We don’t like selling the pair.
EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

FTSE MIB Index – Bullish Extension Higher Started

In this blog, we will have a look at a European index called FTSE MIB. It is the stock market index for the Borsa Italiana. Which is traded in Italy. It has a market capitalization of around 4 Trillion €. The index consists of the 40 most-traded stocks in Italy.
This index has a very interesting swing structure. Having a look at the chart below, you can see that the FTSE MIB has a 5 swing bullish sequence from 2012 low, targeting the areas of 26840 areas (Blue Box). This coincided with our bullishness in the European indices and globally after all. The main point I want to make out in this blog is the fact, that the Index broke already it’s 2018 peak. Opening now further bullish extension higher. It is the only Index which broke the January 2018 peak if you compare it to the DAX or FTSE100.

FTSE MIB Weekly Chart

With FTSE MIB breaking already the 2018 peak, it ended the correction from the 2016 move higher, which means that the 6 swing correction (March lows) is over and we should see more upside in the 7th swing. Keep in mind that the chart above is a weekly chart. Corrections in lower timeframes will obviously occur. Markets never move in one straight line, so we need to be aware of corrections.

FTSE MIB vs DAX

In the chart above you can see the FTSE MIB vs DAX. We can make out that the DAX is still missing the break above the 2018 January peak. But with the FTSE MIB breaking already its respective Jan. peak, we can assume that the correction against 2016 low in the DAX may also be completed. But for a confirmation of this view, the DAX itself needs to break the January peak.

FTSE MIB vs FTSE 100

In the chart above you can see the FTSE MIB vs FTSE100. You can see that the FTSE is also missing the break above the 2018 January peak. However, the difference between the DAX and the FTSE is that the U.K. Index is close to breaking the highs and with the FTSE MIB breaking already its respective Jan. peak, we can assume that the correction against 2016 low in the FTSE may also be completed. But like always for a confirmation of this view, better to wait for a break above January peak.

FTSE MIB vs S&P 500 E-Mini Futures


The last chart represents the FTSE MIB vs ES Futures. The American indices are clearly lagging in the move higher. If you compare the ES to the DAX or FTSE 100 you can make out the move higher is stronger in the European once, so when the European Indices starts their respective correction against the March 2018 lows. The American Indices should get sideways to lower. However, the right side remains to the upside in global indices. But like always, better to wait for a break above the January peak in ES too.

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EURCAD: Selling The Elliott Wave Bounces

In this Technical blog, we are going to take a quick look at the past performance of EURCAD Elliott Wave charts that we presented to our clients. We are going to explain the structure and the forecast. As our members knew, we were pointing out that the sequence from March 20 high 1.6153 is incomplete to the downside. Therefore, we advised our members to avoid buying into proposed bounces. And should be rather looking for selling opportunity based on the incomplete bearish sequence to the downside from March 20 peak. So let’s take a quick look at the performance of our past 1 Hour charts below.
EURCAD Elliott wave 1 Hour Chart from May 7 NY updated

Above is the 1-hour Chart from May 7 NY updated, in which pair is showing a decline from a secondary peak at 1.5715 in 5 waves impulse. Those 5 waves impulse, were expected to be part of a zigzag structure. Because the internal distribution of first 3 swings decline from March peak were unfolded in corrective sequence. Thus favored us to label that decline in proposed Minute wave ((a)) of a possible Zigzag structure. Now coming back to the decline from 1.5715 high, the pair after ending the 5 waves decline was due a bounce soon. As Elliott wave states that after ending the 5 waves there should always be a 3 wave recovery/pullback. Before another extension into the direction of the previous trend starts. Therefore our strategy was to avoid buying it. And selling those bounces in 3, 7 or 11 swings in Minute wave ((b)).
EURCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart from May 8 Asia updated

Above is the 1-hour Elliott wave Chart from May 8 Asia updated, in which the pair is showing the bounce happening in Minute wave ((b)) for the correction of 1.5715 high. And it was expected to see a push higher towards 1.5418-1.5461 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of smaller degree wave (a)-(b). Before it ends the short-term correction. And find seller’s for new lows ideally or for 3 wave reaction lower at least. So our strategy was to sell the pair at the blue box looking for more downside.
EURCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart from May 9 NY updated

Here’s the 1-hour chart from yesterday NY update, showing pair failing in the blue box area as expected. The pair then formed the peak in Minute wave ((b)) at 1.5446 high. And any shorts from the blue box area are risk-free already (stop loss on entry level). Currently, as far as bounces fail below 1.5446 high the pair is expected to see more downside towards 1.5140 potential target area for shorts. We don’t like chasing the weakness now. And prefer staying short with a risk-free position.
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COFFEE Futures (KC#F) Selling The Bounce

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of COFFEE Futures (KC#F) . In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure, forecast and trading strategy.
As our members know, KC#F has had incomplete bearish sequences in H4 cycle according to Sequence Report. Consequently , we knew that short term bounces should ideally find sellers in 3,7,11 swings sequences. We advised clients to avoid buying the commodity keep on selling the rallies whenever get chance. Now let’s take a look at the short term Elliott Wave forecasts
COFFEE KC#F Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 5.1.2018
As we can see at the charts below, COFFEE is doing wave ((iv) recovery. Proposed short term bounce seems to be unfolding as a Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern when we’re in wave iv of (c). As short term cycle from the 114.27 is incomplete to the upside, we’re calling for another leg toward 124.21-125.79 area ( potential sell zone). We don’t know for sure if COFFEE is going to make new low from that area. However due to incomplete bearish sequences in H4 cycle, we’re pretty sure it has to make a 3 wave pull back at least. We don’t recommend buying it. Strategy is waiting for the price to reach 124.21-125.79 area before selling the commodity. Stop Loss of the trade is break above 1.618 Fibonacci extension ( 128.33). As soon as the price reaches 50 Fibonacci Retracement against the (b) blue low, we will make our Sell positions Risk Free.

COFFEE KC#F Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 5.1.2018
COFFEE has made proposed leg up and reached sell zone at 124.21-125.79. It has found sellers and gave us the decline from the blue box inflection area as expected with the actual high coming at 125.85 high. Structure has now changed and we are calling wave X completed at 125.85 which means next leg down can be bigger than previously thought. Any short positions should be risk free and members are now enjoying the profits. Currently the price is showing 5 waves from the mentioned peak. We can get 3 wave bounce soon and expect price ideally to stays below 125.85 high for proposed view. Note: Keep in mind not every char is Trading Signal. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

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We cover 78 instruments in total. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.

DAX Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave 3 Remains In Progress
DAX short-term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally from March 26.2018 low (11704) is unfolding as Impulse Elliott Wave structure. As an impulse, the internals of Minor degree wave 1, 3 & 5 should have subdivision of 5 waves impulse of lesser degree. In the case of DAX, Minute wave ((i)), ((iii)) & ((v)) are all impulsive.
Up from 11704, Minor wave 1 ended at 12047 and Minor wave 2 ended at 11771.5. Minor wave 3 is in progress where rally to 12168 ended Minute wave ((i)) of 3 in 5 waves structure. Minute wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at 11793 low. Then the rally to 12650 high ended Minute wave ((iii)) of 3 in 5 waves. Afterwards, pullback to 12322 low ended Minute wave ((iv)) of 3 as a Flat Elliottwave structure. Up from there, the rally is unfolding in another 5 waves structure in Minute wave ((v)) of 3 with lesser degree cycles showing 5 waves sub-division.
Near-term, the index has already reached the minimum target and swing to end Minor degree wave 3. However, while pullback stays above 12320.95 low, Index has scope to see a marginal push higher towards 13051.13-13274.61 area approximately. Afterwards, the index should pullback in Minor wave 4 in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling the index.
DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

NZDJPY Elliott Wave View: Down 400 Pips, Is The Decline Over?

NZDJPY decline from 7.27.2017 (83.91) is so far in 5 swings which is an incomplete bearish sequence. In Elliott wave terms, decline is taking the form of a double three (WXY) structure where wave (A) of ((W)) ended at 78.09, wave (B) of ((W)) ended at 82.75 and wave ((W)) completed at 76.09. Rally to 81.56 completed wave ((X)) after which pair made a new low to 75.54 on 3.23.2018, this completed wave (W) of ((Y)) and pair then bounced to correct the decline from 81.56 peak. The bounce took the form of a triple three 11 swings structure and failed just above 123.6 extension of Z related to W.
NZDJPY 18 April 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis


In our Live Trading Room, we sold the pair at 79.05 and closed it at 76.28 for a profit of +277 pips as pair looks to be completing a 5 waves decline from 79.63 peak and could now see a bounce in wave B before resuming the decline. Another reason to close the trade was CADJPY breaking above 4.13.2018 peak and creating an incomplete bullish sequence higher from 3.18.2018 low.
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/wp-...-LTR-Trade.png
NZDJPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 5.16.2018

NZDJPY decline from 79.63 peak could be viewed as a 5 waves impulse that we have labelled as wave A ending at 75.57. As this level holds, pair can bounce in wave B in 3, 7 or 11 swings but as far as 79.63 high holds, we expect the bounce to fail for another extension lower towards 73.67 – 71.83 area. Below is the daily chart which shows the structure of the decline from July 2017 peak.
NZDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis: Daily Time Frame

NZDJPY Daily chart above shows pair is correcting the cycle from blue (x) low at 69.23 and the correction is unfolding as a double three structure. As bounces fail below blue (X) peak at 79.63, pair should see more downside towards 73.67 – 71.83 area. After having closed the shorts from 79.05 at 76.28, our preferred strategy is to wait for a break below blue (W) low at 75.54 before looking for intra-day selling opportunities in 3, 7 or 11 swings or waiting for a test of 73.67 – 71.83 area for possible buying opportunities.

HFC HollyFrontier Corporation Impulsive Elliott Wave Rally

Holly Corporation and Frontier Oil merged in July 2011 to form HollyFrontier Corporation (NYSE: HFC). The company is a petroleum refiner and distributor of petroleum products, from gasoline to petroleum-based lubricants and waxes.
Over the past 2 years, Hollyfrontier Corp performed better than majority of its peers in the Oil & Gas Refining and Basic Materials sector. Its stock price is already up 34.4% year-to-date and still expected to see more gains as Oil price is also up 20% this year which helped the petroleum companies to perform well recently.
In the below chart, we can notice that HFC and CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI) are closely correlated together. They shared the same cycle from 2013 peak then the current one from 2016 low. However, in the recent 2 months, HollyFrontier managed to outperform with a strong move to the upside breaking to new all time highs despite CVI being one of the leading stocks in Energy sector in recent 2 years and showing an impulsive structure but failed to do the same.
Overlay of HFC and CVI

After spending 3 years in a corrective cycle to the downside (2013-2016), which took the form of a 3 waves Flat structure, HFC started a new bullish cycle advancing in 5 waves impulsive structure building a nest and looking to reach extreme area around $79.2 – $90.5. Down from there, the stock can see 3 waves pullback before resuming higher again as it’s expected to remain supported and find buyers in 3 , 7 or 11 swing.
HFC Elliott Wave Weekly Chart



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USDJPY Elliott Wave View: Ending 5 Waves Impulse Soon
USDJPY Short-term Elliott wave view suggests that the pullback to 108.62 on 5/04 low ended Minor degree wave 4. Above from there, the rally is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott Wave structure, also known as Impulse. It’s important to note that the sub-division of Minor wave 1, 3 & 5 are also impulsive in the lesser degree. The subdivision in this case is wave ((i)), ((ii)), ((iii)), ((iv)), and ((v)) in Minute degree.
The internal of Minute degree wave ((i)) is unfolding as 5 waves impulse where the rally to 110.02 high ended Minutte wave (i). Then the pullback to 109.12 low ended Minutte wave (ii) and rally to 110.45 high ended Minutte wave (iii) in 5 waves. Down from there, Minutte wave (iv) pullback ended at 110.02 low. Above from there, Minutte wave (v) of ((i)) remains in progress. Near-term focus is towards 111.12-111.39 to end Minute degree with wave ((i)). Afterwards, the pair should do a pullback in Minute wave ((ii)) against 5/04 low (108.62) cycle in in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside extension is seen.
USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott wave Theory and Market Timing

In this blog, we will talk about the concept of Market Timing. Market is a wild animal which always, is in full control. Many traders want to trade every day and always getting in and out of the market which ends up more like gambling than trading. We at Elliottwave-Forecast.Com have practiced the Elliott wave Theory for years and we have been guilty of many early entries into the Market following the Theory. Years ago, we started practising The One Market only concept which allow us to see the Market as a whole. The Idea allows you to be able to pick 1 or more instruments showing a clear structure within either the 3-7-11 or 5-9-13 sequences and using them as a guideline to trade the other instruments within the same group and sometimes within other groups also. In other words, we are able to use the correlation among instruments to pick the right timing to enter the trade. We have developed a system as like many others, we have fallen victim to the suggestive nature of the Elliott wave Theory. It is almost impossible to trade based in the Theory alone and it gets even more difficult when you are trading based in the Theory alone and without correlation i.e. analysing and trading instruments in isolation rather than using correlation and One Market Only concept. Our system divides the market in groups and within the groups we locate the instruments with a better structure, we locate the cycles and sequences and then identify the areas in which the market should turn, we call these areas ceilings or floors. This technique helps tremendously with the timing both as a forecaster and trader and without this technique, it’s extremely difficult to trade using the Elliott wave Theory. The difference now compared to when the Theory was developed is that now, we are able to see many instruments as compared to only a few before so why not taking advantage and use groups and correlation to get an edge in the market.
Most World Indices dipped early in the year and $IBEX entered the correction early in 2017, we knew that $IBEX was the Floor and we told members to wait for the Index to reach the Floor to gather the timing in World Indices to end their respective corrections.
Below is the Daily chart of $IBEX at 1.2018 when the Index was doing a (X) wave, we were calling lower knowing the rest were about to peak.
IBEX Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – Market Timing – January 2018

Below is the $FTSE Daily chart at 1.2018, we knew have reached the Blue Box and a dip was about to happen, it was only a matter of time.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis – Daily Time Frame – January 2018

Here is the latest chart of $IBEX showing the bounce from the Blue Box after reaching the floor. Blue box represented the buying area from where we have already seen a reaction higher and any longs from the blue box should already be in a risk free position now.

Here is the $FTSE latest Daily chart showing the reaction higher. $FTSE Index is about to break above the previous peak seen in January 2018 and a break of that peak would be the confirmation that next leg higher has started. To know the targets, check out this blog about $FTSE leading the World Indices higher.

This is a text book Market timing and understanding Market nature which without is impossible to ride the Wild Horse named Market. The Reason why Indices like $FTSE have been rallying since early February have nothing to do with Fundamentals or anything else, it is all about the Timing which in this case was $IBEX, We hope you guys understand our ideas and become a better trader understanding that nothing is perfect, but having a system help a lot and understanding the nature even more.

EURAUD Reaching The Extremes in March 28th Cycle

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of EURAUD published in members area of the website. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and Swings count.
EURAUD Elliott Wave 4 Hour Chart 5.15.2018
EURAUD has made important break on May 10th, making short term cycle from April 25th peak incomplete to the downside.The pair is bearish now against the 1.596 high and we are calling for further weakness. At this stage, we believe that cycle from the March 28th is still alive. According to chart below, we can count clear 5 swings down from the 04/25 peak, expecting at least another leg lower: 7th swing. Proposed April cycle has ((w))((x))((y)) labeling when we should be ideally in (c) of ((y)) now. Blue box shown on the chart present extreme zone in March 28th cycle. Minimum target comes at 1.57271 and once EURAUD reaches proposed blue box, buyers can appear there for a larger 3 wave bounce.

EURAUD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 5.16.2018
At the chart below we can see short term bounce has reached 50-61.8 Fibonacci Retracment area against the 1.5964 high. We’re calling short term bounce wave (b) completed. The pair remains bearish against the 1.5964 peak and we’re expecting further decline.
Eventually EURAUD has given us drop in 7th swing and reached minimum target at 1.57271 area. Although the pair has minimum requirements to complete cycle from the March 28th peak, it can still extend within bonus time. As far as 1.596 pivot holds cycle from the April 25th peak can remain in progress. Consequently the pair can extend little bit lower within the bonus time toward 1.236 fib ext area :1.56285 or below.
Note:Market is dynamic and view could have changed in the mean time. Keep in mind not every char is Trading Signal. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

Elliott Wave Forecast
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USDCAD Extending Lower As Elliott Wave Impulse
USDCAD short-term Elliott Wave view suggests that the bounce to 1.2998 on 5/08 high ended primary wave ((2)). Below from there, primary wave ((3)) remains in progress as an Impulse Elliott Wave structure looking for more downside extension. In Impulse wave, the subdivision of wave 1, 3, and 5 is also an impulse structure of a lesser degree. On the other hand, wave 2 & 4 are corrective in nature i.e double, triple three, Flat etc. In the case of USDCAD, Intermediate wave 1, 3 and 5 are impulse with sub-division of 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 in Minor degree.
Down from 1.2998 high, the pair ended intermediate wave (1) in 5 waves at 1.2725 low. Then the bounce to 1.2924 high ended intermediate wave (2) as zigzag and the correction against 5/08 high (1.2998). Below from there, Intermediate wave (3) of ((3)) is in progress looking for more downside extension as an impulse. Minor degree wave 1 of (3) ended in 5 waves at 1.2745 low and the bounce to 1.2911 high ended Minor wave 2 of (3) as a zigzag correction. Near-term focus remains towards 1.2733-1.2691, 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of wave 1 & 2, to end the Minute degree wave ((i)) of 3 lower. Afterwards, the pair should bounce in Minute wave ((ii)) to correct the cycle from 1.2911 high before further decline resumes. We don’t like buying the proposed bounces.
USDCAD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Delay in Nafta Deal Doesn’t Hurt Canadian Dollar

We wrote in our previous article that Canadian dollar may get a bid if NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) is successfully renegotiated. The three countries under NAFTA (U.S., Canada, and Mexico) are all under pressure to reach a deal soon. The reason is because of Mexico’s presidential election in July as well as US congress procedural deadline and U.S midterm elections in November. Failure to conclude a deal will cause job loss and uncertainty, denting business confidence. Delay will also add to political unpredictability since some politicians may no longer be involved in politics next year. Mexico will have a new administration and US will have a new congress after mid-term elections. There’s also U.S. threat on steel and aluminum tariffs. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect in June 1, if the NAFTA deal doesn’t come through.
US House Speaker Paul Ryan gave a self-imposed May 17 deadline in order for US Congress to review and approve it. However, last week the deadline had passed and still the parties have not agreed to a deal. Mr. Ryan has since extended the deadline by 1 or 2 weeks to the end of May. He clarified that it still has enough time for voting provided that the U.S. independent body can analyze the new deal faster.
Last week, the failure to meet May 17 deadline combined with less than expected inflation data from Canada caused the Loonie to initially get sold. However, the Canadian Dollar has since reversed last week’s weakness and even extends higher against some currencies. This underscores the belief by market participants that a resolution will eventually come through. The high Oil price has also helped Canadian Dollar. The continued US/Iran geopolitical tension and threat of new sanctions underpin the support in Oil. There are also some progresses on the US – China trade war negotiation. Although a deal is nowhere close, but the two sides continue the talk and thus defusing the tension.
CADJPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Favors Canadian Dollar and Nafta Deal

CADJPY shows a bullish sequence from 3.19.2018 low. The rally from there either is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure or a zigzag. Either way, as far as pair stays above 5/8 low (83.87) in the first degree, it should extend higher to at least 89.14 – 90.38 area. The technical view therefore is in favor of Canadian Dollar
GBPCAD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis favors Canadian Dollar

GBPCAD decline from 3.19.2018 shows an extension (161.8%) in the third swing lower. If this interpretation is correct, then it has a chance to extend lower as an impulse. The characteristic of an impulse wave is an extension in wave 3 with 161.8% fibonacci extension or higher as the typical extension. As far as bounce stays below the proposed wave 2 at 1.809, the pair has a chance to extend lower as an impulse. This pair then also favors Canadian Dollar’s strength.
Conclusion
Despite failure to reach Nafta deal by May 17, Canadian Dollar continues to be supported due to the ongoing speculation that eventually a deal will come through. The elevated price of Oil has also been supportive of Canadian Dollar. Technical view of some Canadian pairs also look to confirm this view.
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