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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis) 6,164 replies

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PVSRA Scalping with Cigarguy

Quoting h2y
{quote} Rays, Wisely used self control, many other opportunities will develop You might be correct... Statistics show that the dragon might act in times as S/R and often PA is repelled from and attracted to the dragon.. However the market is inefficient but very effective and does whatever it wants or takes to accumulate money... Keep in mind that (overal) Price action at or around key levels (i.e. whole, half, quarters and 10 and 5 lvls) in the present and past, are more important than the dragon itself... May your journey be a delight to...
Thank you h2y for the input and help
Trade #3 | EU 1M | 0.40 size | + 13 pips | = +18.42 Euro

This setup looked really clean for me, at least judging by the many screenshots I studied provided by the community here.

Here is what I saw:

- EU extremely bearish, breaking RWL and stopping at RDL.
- Retracement through the dragon, back to RWL which we broke before. This was the retracement I was hoping for.
- Green volume candle trying to break back above RWL, failed to do so
- Break back through the dragon with red volume candle. I sold here, 5 pips SL and 5 pips TP.
- Once TP hit, I closed 0.35 and let the rest run. Second target was RDL again where it bounced off. After I trailed my SL above the last consolidation, I got taken out and price drops lower ... here, I was very greedy again and was scared giving away my profits, so instead of leaving some room, I put my SL exactly on the consolidation ... hmm, okay, happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I am very patient and looking for clean setups that I really understand and trust. Sometimes I see a potential setup, but I skip it since I am not very familiar with it just yet. Chart time is really important and after seeing these setups posted by cigarguy and others, I start to be confident.

Quick summary of week 1 live trading:

Total pips: +21.8
Gain: +27.03 Euro

First week trading PVSRA resulted green. I love it! Thank you all.

PS: 13 pips, but this is only from opening one trade that got closed partially. So not sure if it is then a total of 7 pips or 6+7=13. Advise is appreciated.
PPS: Just because a trade worked out, doesn't mean that it was a good one. In case I misinterpreted something, kindly met me know the harsh truth. That way I learn the best.

EDIT: An entry would have been possible at the red volume candle that touched the RWL after the retrace, but I was not sure due to my inexperience. But these seem to be high probability trades as well.
Quoting RaysJourney
Trade #3 | EU 1M | 0.40 size | + 13 pips | = +18.42 Euro This setup looked really clean for me, at least judging by the many screenshots I studied provided by the community here. Here is what I saw: - EU extremely bearish, breaking RWL and stopping at RDL. - Retracement through the dragon, back to RWL which we broke before. This was the retracement I was hoping for. - Green volume candle trying to break back above RWL, failed to do so - Break back through the dragon with red volume candle. I sold here, 5 pips SL and 5 pips TP. - Once TP hit, I closed...
Nice start you have, great. Keep in mind you scalp the market and you take not much pips as other methods the week. It is the beauty of this trading style to be short time in the market and have closed trades. Shutting pc down and make other things. From your first post i have a good feeling you take some really good direction with pvsra if you keep the focused work.
Market is more simple as you think.
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Nice start you have, great. Keep in mind you scalp the market and you take not much pips as other methods the week. It is the beauty of this trading style to be short time in the market and have closed trades. Shutting pc down and make other things. From your first post i have a good feeling you take some really good direction with pvsra if you keep the focused work.
Thank you Michael for the kind words.

You are right. So far it feels like that it is best to take full profit at 5 pips. But I also often saw how price keeps going in the trade direction after the 5 pips. So perhaps I need stronger reasons to hold a trade after I take i.e. 80% out (for example, M15 strong trend or so). Or maybe I will settle with full profits only. Not sure.

Still experimenting with it but I am sure in couple months I will have fixed rules for myself that work best.

And yes, so far it feels good being in a very tiny drawdown after I open a position, but I call it "the first lucky three (trades)" hehe.

Cheers!
Nice work Guys....Traders Helping Traders...

ALL have a nice weekend ready to grab some pips next week..

CG
Keep It Simple
USDJPY M1 +5PIPS LONG

Reasons
- Very good support at the 233EMA (yellow line) that was kept for many candles
- I entered when I saw that there was a huge blue bar on the volume but the candle was tiny and was formed just on the 200EMA
- So, I entered a few candles after that because I was a bit late to spot it
Got my target and exited.
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I missed many setups again, to worried to take them but it would be 3 out of 3 wins. But I take these as lessons while I am monitoring as a bystander.

Few questions again. I'd be grateful if someone can answer this:

1.) Definition of a break - if a 1M volume candle closes by few points over a key level, I am never sure if it is a break or not. Sometimes it continues the path, sometimes it retraces, hits the level again, leaves a wick, completely turning price. Ugh ... any suggestions?

2.) I saw this bounce today off the EMA, but I didn't take the trade because it was not a volume candle rejection. Would this be still valid taking in a strong uptrend or rather not since the probability is lower? Grey candles really confuse me sometimes since I put absolutely no value to them but I should... maybe?

Also, on the right, you can see a red candle "breaking" the 2 EMAs. Is this a break or still not sure?

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3.) If a volume candle breaks the dragon (again, what is a break? Close above/below completely?) in any direction, regardless of the trend, can we take it for 5 pips? Or does trend and other factors matter?

Thank you for the help!
Quoting RaysJourney
I missed many setups again, to worried to take them but it would be 3 out of 3 wins. But I take these as lessons while I am monitoring as a bystander. Few questions again. I'd be grateful if someone can answer this: 1.) Definition of a break - if a 1M volume candle closes by few points over a key level, I am never sure if it is a break or not. Sometimes it continues the path, sometimes it retraces, hits the level again, leaves a wick, completely turning price. Ugh ... any suggestions? 2.) I saw this bounce today off the EMA, but I didn't take the...
Hm ... see your trading plan / risk management as your boat. On high sea it must carry you without you thinking every single moment about the boat if it is damged or not.
You have with pvsra good tools to navigate. You are the captain.
Market is more simple as you think.
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Hm ... see your trading plan / risk management as your boat. On high sea it must carry you without you thinking every single moment about the boat if it is damged or not. You have with pvsra good tools to navigate. You are the captain.
I get your point, but this doesn't really answer any of my questions.
Quoting RaysJourney
{quote} I get your point, but this doesn't really answer any of my questions.
You are right and want not given some answer without give you a hint about something that is more important. Why you stand on the sideline? Can you answer this for you? Is this because a little panic to enter market, unsure if you entry work? We all must enter the market for profits, no way out here. Fear goes if you stand 100% behind your plan, so first care about this one if this is the work to do.

Here what i see from your picture.

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Edit: In the past i have had the same problem to watching all from the sideline. I looking really good trades if i had trigger the trade and some bad trades aswell.
I have several days trade the smallest avaible positions with real money and take every signal that are discribed by my entry model. This was only to get the lesson for pulling the trigger without overthink the situation to much and let all runing without part of it. I have a fixed amount of my capital that i would never see again after this. My trading was good enough not burning this amount.
Market is more simple as you think.
Notable bounce from dragon and DO/WO

UJ M1 south +2/+7
explanations on chart
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Quoting h2y
Notable bounce from dragon and DO/WO UJ M1 south +2/+7 explanations on chart {image}
DO and WO stand for daily/weekly open?
Quoting RaysJourney
I missed many setups again, to worried to take them but it would be 3 out of 3 wins. But I take these as lessons while I am monitoring as a bystander. Few questions again. I'd be grateful if someone can answer this: 1.) Definition of a break - if a 1M volume candle closes by few points over a key level, I am never sure if it is a break or not. Sometimes it continues the path, sometimes it retraces, hits the level again, leaves a wick, completely turning price. Ugh ... any suggestions? 2.) I saw this bounce today off the EMA, but I didn't take the...
1.) There are no specific rules of a break. PVSRA doesn't work like that. Watching an analysing price while moving towards a key level often can help you determine if that level is going to hold or not. For example, is price rising towards a key level while volume is falling? this could help along with other analysis of PVSRA. Something else that is also helpful is keeping stats. I have stats for the past 2 &1/2 (and counting) years for how often key levels we use hold & fail between LO and LC. How often price bounces at them and how often it breaks them. Knowing this information can help with confidence and strengthen your edge. Hard, tedious work, but the added information is invaluable.

2.) That would have been a good set up IMO. The dragon and both the EMA's work very well as S/R. But you must remember to check the higher TF, especially the M5 and M15. Putting no value to grey volume bars is not a good idea. They make up a massive part of PVSRA. Just because a candle isn't represented by 'notable volume' doesn't mean it has no relevance. The image below is the volume from your chart during the bounce at the 200/233ma's You can see volume increased when price was bouncing at the MA's, better still, the candles printed as pin bars. Both of these factors indicate a move higher (depending on what the M5 & M15 looked like at the time). The grey candles and volume bars are important!

Attached Image


3.) You can't just take any trade based on a break of the dragon. So much more matters. If it was a case of simply buying and selling breaks this would be easy work, but its not! The trend matters, what price is doing on the higher time frame matters, support/resistance matters, price action matters and of course volume, not to mention other factors such as news, time of day etc..

Id suggest you focus on one part of PVSRA while getting started and learning. Breakouts IMO are difficult, because so many other factors come into play, but they do get easier to identify over time once your experience of reading the market from a PVSRA point of view increases. Try focusing on pull backs to the dragon with a notable volume candle bounce and trading in line with the current trend. Over 80% of my trades are this. The dragon is your best friend. Price always goes back to it, chops around it or moves away from it. 1 or 2 valid trades a day is all you need to make this work, then as your experience increases you'll start to notice other parts of PVSRA making more sense.

Vape.
Quoting RaysJourney
{quote} DO and WO stand for daily/weekly open?
Yes DO is daily open, WO is weekly open.
Quoting Vape
{quote} 1.) There are no specific rules of a break. PVSRA doesn't work like that. Watching an analysing price while moving towards a key level often can help you determine if that level is going to hold or not. For example, is price rising towards a key level while volume is falling? this could help along with other analysis of PVSRA. Something else that is also helpful is keeping stats. I have stats for the past 2 &1/2 (and counting) years for how often key levels we use hold & fail between LO and LC. How often price bounces at them and how often...

Vape, I have absolutely no more questions as everything has been answered as precise as possible. Regarding the grey candles and increasing/falling volume, as well as tracking stats of when a key level breaks and when not is one of the most helpful things I've heard. Truly, I mean it.

After a quick backtest, the raising/falling volume part together with grey/coloured candles are a game changer for me which needs more testing. I totally was not aware of this and, obviously, misunderstood some elements of PVSRA. Thank you, your input is highly appreciated. I am getting back to work.

Ray

PS: Yes, breakouts is something I will put aside now. You and Rob seem to trade something very often, which is the break/pullback to dragon trade or generally trades around the dragon. I love those as they seem the most high probability trades out there (so far what I have seen). I wish you green pips, all my questions are well answered. Thank you again.
guys just to be sure, is this a manual trading strategy or an EA...great work @cigarguy
Quoting amocfx
guys just to be sure, is this a manual trading strategy or an EA...great work @cigarguy
This is a manual strategy. Someone made an EA for this. It didnt work.

FYI, if someone can program a computer to trade profitably they wont share it on a free website like forex factory. Dont waste your time on EA's, learn how to trade yourself.
Quoting RaysJourney
Trade #3 | EU 1M | 0.40 size | + 13 pips | = +18.42 Euro This setup looked really clean for me, at least judging by the many screenshots I studied provided by the community here. Here is what I saw: - EU extremely bearish, breaking RWL and stopping at RDL. - Retracement through the dragon, back to RWL which we broke before. This was the retracement I was hoping for. - Green volume candle trying to break back above RWL, failed to do so - Break back through the dragon with red volume candle. I sold here, 5 pips SL and 5 pips TP. - Once TP hit, I closed...
How do you close 0.35?
Quoting the3mp
{quote} How do you close 0.35?
Once a position is open in MT4, you double click on the position. Then, the position window opens and then you enter the amont under volume how much you want to close. After entered, click on the yellow button ("Close") that appears on the bottom of the position window. Hope this helps!
GU M1 +5 Explanation on chart

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