This was originally neilgroom's strategy that he shared with us in previous thread. We decided it no longer belongs in the commercial section because we are not using any paid services and that it deserves it's own dedicated thread so we can remain focused on this ONE strategy. I will try to maintain the thread as neilgroom does not have the time, however he will continue to drop in and contribute. I have copied over all the relevant information from the other thread and put it below and will continue to update this first post as needed so newcomers can have a quick reference guide on the first page.
UPDATE: Well, we've been moved back to commercial for some reason, either way, we are still not using any paid services in this thread.
Before we get into the method there are some rules that must be followed or this thread could end up like many others on this forum, a convoluted mess going 100 different directions...
1. We must stay FOCUSED on this one strategy, if you want to add on to the strategy with your ideas and indicators then start another thread, DON'T POST IT IN HERE. This is so we can all stay on the SAME page.
2. If you disagree and want to argue with someone, take it to PMs, don't start it in here, that literally contributes nothing to the thread but a mess, you'll be blocked.
3. If you disagree with the strategy itself, no need to go on a tirade in here and start calling people out, keep it to yourself.
4. If you are new, read through the first two posts before asking questions as they go over the strategy in detail and will be updated and maintained with new info.
With all that being said, we welcome personal analysis and contribution from members on the strategy itself.
The Method
Resources used:
ScorpionFX (https://scorpionfx.com/weekly_forecast_and_top_trades/): Free exhaustive fundamental analysis (remember do your own research too!)
Myfxbook (https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook): Free service provided by myfxbook to show trading volume on currency pairs
Trading view: It's overal easier and cleaner to chart on trading view charts than MT4, up to you
Scorpionfx covers the 8 following currencies: USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD. And For this upcoming week, our research concludes the following as the EXPECTED relative-performance for these currencies. You can go to their website on a Sunday before the markets open and get there trades or sign up by email and you get an email with just the trades on a Sunday evening. Or Monday morning depending on your time zone. I'm in the Wet and cold U.K.
Top trades from scorpionfx (this was for a previous week to match with neil's explanation below, please visit scorpionfx for updated analysis)
Don't trade on them blindly. From my research these trades are very good but some do go the other way. No magic solution here.
Now go to https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
Look up the pairs scorpionfx gave you as there top trades for the week. We follow them as if they say BUY we BUY and not SELL.
Now look through each pair and you want the opposite direction to scorpionfx at.
https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
At the top of the list where it says community outlook click the more button and click off all the exotic pairs. Makes life easier and makes it clearer.
Take for example scorpionfx have AUD/USD as a sell signal for the week.
Find the pair and place your mouse curser over it and it will display the following
We want THE OPPOSITE direction to what scorpionfx says. As in the example scoropionfx says the AUD/USD will go down through the week.
As in the example retail traders are LONG the AUD/USD. Look at the volume level. We want a percentage over 70% with a volume lever of at least 5000 LOTS. This one is perfect and an excellent trade.
If one matches wait until the markets open and wait half hour to one hour to see if in fact it's going the way scorpionfx says. If it is then TRADE IT.
I have only been trading this way for two weeks so nothing is really proven but In 12 trades I have done in those two weeks I have only closed one trade for a small loss. The USD/CAD. It is going in the direction now, so maybe I shouldn’t have closed it. Another reason I did was cause the USD and CAD where very strong currencies at the same time.
I hope this helps... One thing I like about it is you haven’t got ONE bloody indicator on the chart.
I do admit I use the RSI indictor sometimes but for not what it is intended to do. That will be another thread one day. HINT: Never use the default setting on any indicator on MT4. Use 2 or 3 or 5.
Futher information from neilgroom on the strategy.
Don't forget myfxbook is a long time rating.. You need a high percent and high volume. Anything above 5000 volume. I've seen one pair last months with a 90% and very high volume.
Some pairs will have a 90% plus rating but the volume is so small it will go any way. With the crowd or against them
The USD/CHF went down yesterday. A pair has to go down to go up again. Has to go up for it to go down again. Supply and demand.
It takes time to get used to it.. The only pairs at the minute are the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF
For something simple add an RSI period 2 to the daily chart or if you want long term add to the monthly chart. ONLY myfxbook pairs over 70% and with volume of 5000 or more.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/lSwgmVJD/ (https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/lSwgmVJD/) and add RSI period 2 hlc3
Something for you to do when the markets close. It mega filters them. Now here is the magic. We do the complete opposite of what the RSI is designed for.
The higher the rating the better for buy and the lower the rating the better for selling. Don't use the RSI trick on mt4 though
The arrow on the chart is when myfxbook were selling it big. Mega pips for us.
Daily chart USD/CHF
An example of where retail traders are buying GBPUSD, we go against the heard of retail traders (contrarian).
The green sloping line was when retail traders where buying it..
Some last points...
Always do your own research in addition to the process outlined above! Remember, the FX-market is the most complex and unpredictable financial-market of all. And it is IMPOSSIBLE to guarantee that a currency will move in any particular direction, or in any particular manner. Therefore, it is STRONGLY RECOMMENDED that you follow proper money-management on all of your trades. Never risk more than 2% of your account. Look for a risk/reward of at least 2-1.
UPDATE: Well, we've been moved back to commercial for some reason, either way, we are still not using any paid services in this thread.
Before we get into the method there are some rules that must be followed or this thread could end up like many others on this forum, a convoluted mess going 100 different directions...
1. We must stay FOCUSED on this one strategy, if you want to add on to the strategy with your ideas and indicators then start another thread, DON'T POST IT IN HERE. This is so we can all stay on the SAME page.
2. If you disagree and want to argue with someone, take it to PMs, don't start it in here, that literally contributes nothing to the thread but a mess, you'll be blocked.
3. If you disagree with the strategy itself, no need to go on a tirade in here and start calling people out, keep it to yourself.
4. If you are new, read through the first two posts before asking questions as they go over the strategy in detail and will be updated and maintained with new info.
With all that being said, we welcome personal analysis and contribution from members on the strategy itself.
The Method
Resources used:
ScorpionFX (https://scorpionfx.com/weekly_forecast_and_top_trades/): Free exhaustive fundamental analysis (remember do your own research too!)
Myfxbook (https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook): Free service provided by myfxbook to show trading volume on currency pairs
Trading view: It's overal easier and cleaner to chart on trading view charts than MT4, up to you
Scorpionfx covers the 8 following currencies: USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD. And For this upcoming week, our research concludes the following as the EXPECTED relative-performance for these currencies. You can go to their website on a Sunday before the markets open and get there trades or sign up by email and you get an email with just the trades on a Sunday evening. Or Monday morning depending on your time zone. I'm in the Wet and cold U.K.
Top trades from scorpionfx (this was for a previous week to match with neil's explanation below, please visit scorpionfx for updated analysis)
Don't trade on them blindly. From my research these trades are very good but some do go the other way. No magic solution here.
Now go to https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
Look up the pairs scorpionfx gave you as there top trades for the week. We follow them as if they say BUY we BUY and not SELL.
Now look through each pair and you want the opposite direction to scorpionfx at.
https://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook
At the top of the list where it says community outlook click the more button and click off all the exotic pairs. Makes life easier and makes it clearer.
Take for example scorpionfx have AUD/USD as a sell signal for the week.
Find the pair and place your mouse curser over it and it will display the following
We want THE OPPOSITE direction to what scorpionfx says. As in the example scoropionfx says the AUD/USD will go down through the week.
As in the example retail traders are LONG the AUD/USD. Look at the volume level. We want a percentage over 70% with a volume lever of at least 5000 LOTS. This one is perfect and an excellent trade.
If one matches wait until the markets open and wait half hour to one hour to see if in fact it's going the way scorpionfx says. If it is then TRADE IT.
I have only been trading this way for two weeks so nothing is really proven but In 12 trades I have done in those two weeks I have only closed one trade for a small loss. The USD/CAD. It is going in the direction now, so maybe I shouldn’t have closed it. Another reason I did was cause the USD and CAD where very strong currencies at the same time.
I hope this helps... One thing I like about it is you haven’t got ONE bloody indicator on the chart.
I do admit I use the RSI indictor sometimes but for not what it is intended to do. That will be another thread one day. HINT: Never use the default setting on any indicator on MT4. Use 2 or 3 or 5.
Futher information from neilgroom on the strategy.
Don't forget myfxbook is a long time rating.. You need a high percent and high volume. Anything above 5000 volume. I've seen one pair last months with a 90% and very high volume.
Some pairs will have a 90% plus rating but the volume is so small it will go any way. With the crowd or against them
The USD/CHF went down yesterday. A pair has to go down to go up again. Has to go up for it to go down again. Supply and demand.
It takes time to get used to it.. The only pairs at the minute are the USD/CHF and EUR/CHF
For something simple add an RSI period 2 to the daily chart or if you want long term add to the monthly chart. ONLY myfxbook pairs over 70% and with volume of 5000 or more.
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/lSwgmVJD/ (https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/lSwgmVJD/) and add RSI period 2 hlc3
Something for you to do when the markets close. It mega filters them. Now here is the magic. We do the complete opposite of what the RSI is designed for.
The higher the rating the better for buy and the lower the rating the better for selling. Don't use the RSI trick on mt4 though
The arrow on the chart is when myfxbook were selling it big. Mega pips for us.
Daily chart USD/CHF
An example of where retail traders are buying GBPUSD, we go against the heard of retail traders (contrarian).
The green sloping line was when retail traders where buying it..
Some last points...
Always do your own research in addition to the process outlined above! Remember, the FX-market is the most complex and unpredictable financial-market of all. And it is IMPOSSIBLE to guarantee that a currency will move in any particular direction, or in any particular manner. Therefore, it is STRONGLY RECOMMENDED that you follow proper money-management on all of your trades. Never risk more than 2% of your account. Look for a risk/reward of at least 2-1.
