Set and Forget

Week ending 28Apr18

We started the week with 6 trades open, and I placed 11 orders, of which 9 were taken. 5TPs were hit, so on target there, and we now have 10 trades open. The oldest trades are only 2 weeks old.

Gain on equity this week was 0.2% on the AUD account, bringing it to 10% for the month so far. Margin Used is 16% of NAV.

Overall, including the NZD funds and with the upward movement in the AUDNZD, NZD equity gain was 0.7% for the week, and 10.3% for the month, with total drawdown sitting at 1.7%.

The AUDSGD is the trade most in the red at the moment, and is at 1.0022 currently after a bounce off the 1.0000 mark. If it breaks through, there still might be more downward pressure to support around the .9900 level. I'll keep an eye on that one.

Month End April 2018

The last trading day of the month saw a small drop in equity (slightly exaggerated in the chart), but overall an excellent month. In fact the second best month yet in regards to % gain in equity!

The AUD account is sitting at $19938, up 9.5% for the month. Drawdown is at 2.3%. IRR for the last 12 months is 31.1% so tracking very nicely.

The AUDNZD is currently at 1.0705, so overall we were up 9.9% for the month, and 5.4% YTD.

I will be making a $500 deposit into the NZD account today.

Week Ending 05May18

A bit of a mixed week this week, not too much variance on the account in the end. We placed 9 orders on Sunday, and all were taken. There were 7 TPs hit, so above target, and that leaves us with 12 trades open. For the week we were down 0.4% equity in the AUD account. and MTD in the first few days we are up 0.1%. Drawdown in this account is at 3.1%, with Margin Used at 19% of NAV.

Overall, with the slight increase in the AUDNZD to 1.0740, the total account is up 0.4% for the month to date, and drawdown is at 2.4%.

I have the feeling that the AUD has, at least for now, bottomed out, and that we will see some upward movement in the AUD pairs. In AUDNZD for example, it has been ranging at the 1.07 mark for a couple of weeks now, and has just seemed to break out of there to the upside. But then, that is just my opinion and only has a 50% chance of being right

IRR on the AUD account over the last 12 months is above target at 33.1%, and YTD for 2018 we are up 8.5% (although only 5.8% in overall NZD terms given the higher NZD over that period - I need to build up the NZD portion).

My target is to have NZD40,000 (between both accounts) by Xmas.

Hi Xeniz,

as discussed previously, in case it is of any interest for you.
It is provocative in a positive way, and makes sense even if quite unusual.



Thanks again for your interesting thread, and I wish you to keep up the positive results on the long term.

Cheers,
J-F

Thanks J-F,

Some interesting reading, and in a way I suppose that is what I came to realise - the stop-losses I was setting were actually causing me to lose money, and provided lot size and risk is managed, you don't need to set specific stoplosses. You close trades in loss following the method you use.

I didn't quite understand what he was talking about re positive swap though. While I can get positive swap on Oanda with a couple of pairs (either long or short, but not both of course), in most cases I pay interest regardless of my position given the different interest rates they offer. For example the negative swap I pay on EURNZD if I go long is 5 times the positive swap I get if I short it. With AUDCAD, both positions are with negative swap - if I am long I pay about 2/3 the interest compared to what it would be if I was short.

Perhaps it depends on his broker.

The finance charges are actually quite expensive IMO. On this AUD account for example, I have made a gross profit of around $6500 so far after total deposits of $15000, but the balance is at $20600 - so about $900 in swap interest.

Overall I like his philosophy though, and it seems that he has found what works for him, which is great. Also some very real truths too, which most of us, as complete newbies, didn't want to hear or simply ignored at our peril....

Week ending 12May18

This week did not start well, with some big drops early in the week, only to see many trades reverse by Thursday and be well up (with the improvement in AUD I was expecting), and then for things to pull back a little again on Friday (mainly Soybeans and Corn). So quite a roller coaster week - in the end we had a 1.1% gain in equity. 7 trades placed, all taken, and 7 TPs hit.

I also closed the long NZDJPY trade at a $100 loss as it wasn't looking like it was going to come back, and in fact I shouldn't have taken it in the first place as it was actually outside the parameters required (human error on my part). This pair has formed a bit of a descending triangle on the daily/weekly chart too, and could absolutely drop away if it breaks through that strong support at 76.00. So closed and staying out.

Therefore on the AUD account, up 1.1% for the week, 1.2% MTD, 10.8% QTD, and 33.6% IRR over the last 12months. Drawdown at 2.5%, and margin used is just under 15% of NAV.

Overall in NZD funds, and due to the stronger AUD, up 1.8% for the week, 2.2% MTD, 12.1% QTD and approx 7.6% since the start of the year. Total drawdown is only 1.4%, which is very low.

Pretty good numbers all round, and happy with progress to date . Still waiting for a little more upside in the AUD before withdrawing some funds from the AUD account and bringing them across into NZD.

Week ending 19May18

Another quite erratic week, with equity jumping all around the place. After a sharp drop at the start, towards week end we were up significantly as AUD and Soybeans in particular regained good ground, and I had a few CAD and EUR TPs hit, but again at the end the rest dropped back.

In the end, a slightly losing week, down 0.3% in equity, and MTD we are now only up about 0.9%, a little under target. We had 6 orders taken of the 7 placed, and 5 TPs hit. Currently, margin used is about 15% of NAV, and there are 12 trades open, the oldest being the AUDSGD and EURSGD from mid-April. Drawdown on the AUD account is sitting at 3.5%. IRR over the last 12 months is still within target, at 32.8%.

Overall, as the AUDNZD gained some more ground this week (getting up to around 1.0925 before falling right back), total drop in Equity was 0.1%, and MTD we are up 2.1%. Total drawdown is at 3.5%, so very manageable.

As drawdown is still low, and highest ever to date was about 13.2%, I am considering increasing the TP targets to 0.2% per trade (up from the current 0.15%). I will look at this at month end. As well, if the AUDNZD gets closer to 1.1000, I will withdraw funds from the AUD account.

Week ending 26May18

What a roller coaster week! Trump and his ongoings with China, Brexit..... I placed 13 orders, 12 of which were taken. I had 8 TPs hit, so above target. By Wednesday, we were up over 2.5% for the week, and I was even reconsidering another "reset". By the end of the week though, we had come back almost 4%, and ended up 1.2% down on equity. That means we are now down 0.4% MTD, and drawdown on the AUD account is now up to 5.9% (within the average range to date).

IRR on the AUD account over the last 12 months is 30.1%

All up, with the increase in the AUDNZD, were were down 0.6% for the week, and YTD for 2018 we are up 7.1% approximately. Total drawdown is 5.5% which is manageable.

Lets see what the last week can bring - hopefully we can end the month on a positive note!

Month End 31May18

A couple of tumultuous weeks in the second half of the month, and especially these last few days. The AUDNZD recovered quite a lot, then dropped back again, and is still up for the month. Mid-month, we were well past the monthly target, so it was disappointing to see the equity drop back again, closing the month with a 2.1% loss.

That also means that in the AUD account, we are only up 6% for the year, after 5 months, and only 4.3% overall. Total drawdown has pushed out to 7.1%, still at acceptable levels.

The next month is going to be interesting, in particular with the Euro depending what happens in Italy.

I will continue to follow my method, which has been consistent until now, I will also add another NZD500 to the account to reach that $40000 target by year end.

Week ending 02Jun18

Only one day additional trading after the last post, but I am committed to keeping track of this trading. And in fact there was a 1.2% increase in equity on that first day of the month.

Overall for the week, I placed 6 orders, all of which were taken, but we only had 2 TPs hit, so down a little from the 5 TP weekly target. Even with the gain on Friday, we were still down about 0.6% on equity for the week, and with the drop in AUDNZD of almost 100 pips for the week, that means our NZD total lost about 1.2% for the week.

I currently have 20 trades open, 5 of them from April. Margin used is about 27.6% of NAV. So there won't be many trade opportunities this week, and I might just be sitting on the sidelines for a little while.

On the AUD account, drawdown is 6.6%, and overall it is sitting at 6.1%. That is still green territory.

I made another NZD deposit on Friday - the more I can have in that account the lower the impact the fluctuations in the AUDNZD will have on the overall account.

IRR for the last 12 months has dropped under the 30% target, and is now around 27%. That's not too bad, although 2018 YTD on the AUD is quite low at 7.3% and we are already in June....

The graph in the attachment hasn't changed from the last post as there were no TPs hit on Friday, just the equity figure is different.

Week ending 09 June

Quite a boring week this week, not much in the way of orders, TPs or activity really. With 20 trades still open, it doesn’t leave me much scope to open new trades (in that way the system is a somewhat self-regulating). Only 2 orders placed this week, both taken, and 3 TPs hit. That’s under the 5-6 TP target per week.

Equity gain was quite good for the week though, up 0.9%, taking it up to a 2.1% increase on equity so far this month on the AUD account, with drawdown sitting around 6.9%. (Note the spike and drop for the last two days trading on the graph is completely wrong - again. If anyone can give me a better solution than MyFxBook and TE to chart progress I would be very grateful)

I still have 19 positions open, the oldest AUDSGD from mid-April which came close to hitting TP before dropping back.

It’s been a good quarter so far, with just a few weeks left, up 9.4% from 31Mar, however those slow first three months of the year mean we are only up 8.3% for the 2018 year to date. Over the last 12 months, we are up 25.1%, which is good, but below our ongoing 30% target.

The AUDNZD dropped again this week, back down to the 1.08 region, which means overall YTD we have an increase on equity of 5.9% for this calendar year. CAD, AUD, and GBP are where I would like to see some ground gained, and SGD pulling back.

It looks like I will only be able to place 2 or 3 orders again this week, so let’s see how we progress.

Excellent job Steve! Regarding MyFxBook and TE not accurately tracking your results, how about ditching those and just display your "Cumulative P&L" graph shown in your previous post? It simply shows how well you're doing...and you certainly don't need an independent 3rd party to validate your results; You don't have to prove the efficacy of your method to anybody and if other FF members don't believe your results, who cares? Just saying... a very simple robust trading system...

Cheers Dave. The problem with the Oanda P&L graph is that it doesn't show current drawdown. At least with the MyFxBook there is a balance and an equity line, and I believe having a manageable drawdown is paramount to long term success.

I suppose this journal has several purposes, the main one is for me to keep a record of how things are going and track performance, comparing it to past performance. That way I stay on track! Secondly, by making it public, I have some accountability (even if others don't read it) and I force/remind myself to place and record the trades, and to stick to the rules (I have another much smaller account which I use for "fun" trades which allows me to scratch the itch so to speak). Thirdly, and less importantly, is that while it is not a high-returning account, others may be encouraged by the fact that, long term, it is possible to make money in FX (whether they want to believe it or not is up to them) . I know when I started I read about guys making money but no-one really posted any long-term proof, and even some profitable TEs I see on here don't include $ figures either. Long-term for me means at least 7-10years, riding out a cycle or two that includes some major economic black swans.

I had dreams about doing FX full-time, making it my only source of income, but that goal has changed. However, for some that is a goal worth chasing, and users like Profitfarmer have taken that step and he has been (reasonably) transparent about it. I would like him to keep posting, the good and the bad, so that others can learn the realities of doing so, as well as gain encouragement. In this journey, it is important to read about the account blowouts and the successes, the ups and the downs, so that one knows the risks and the possibilites.

Happy trading!

Hi Steve,

I most certainly agree with your comments regarding the importance of drawdown and accountability, but you can simply screen capture the Oanda FxTrade Desktop Account Summary to show your current drawdown without compromising your live account information (see screenshot). You can also plot your day-to-day (or week-to-week) drawdown in Excel and show that. Anyway, you have a very robust system and most FF members should be envious of having such a simple method that actually performs as well as yours. I'm surprised that your journal doesn't have more questions and views... I guess a 20-30+% annualized gain with a consistently low DD using a simple system isn't sexy enough for most members.. folks should realize that a higher annualized gain can be attained with your system for those who have a higher risk appetite (i.e. stomaching a larger DD) and can do so without blowing up their account.



Best,

Dave

Week ending 16Jun18

An interesting week in the markets this week with the ECB announcement on Thursday. Looking at some other journals on here some seem to have been hit very hard indeed.

For my AUD account, I placed 4 orders this week, all taken. There were 5 TPs hit, so on target, however the week ended up with a 1.5% drop in equity due mainly to the ECB announcement. For the month to date, our gain has pulled back to 0.6%, and also means that coming up to the halfway point of the year we are only up around 6.7%. Margin used is a little over 26% of NAV, and I currently have 19 trades open. Drawdown is 8.15%. IRR for the last 12months is down to 22.1%, which is acceptable, but target is 30%

With the AUDNZD dropping again this week, the overall NZD account is looking a little flat. An approximately 2.1% drop in equity for the week, means we are down about 0.2% MTD and our overall gain for the last (almost) 6 months in 2018 is only 3.7%. Overall drawdown is at 7.5%, and that's still within green territory for me.

Still looking for the CAD, AUD and GBP to gain some ground over the next few weeks.

As Dave suggested in the post above, I'll look at creating a chart on Excel that can show both equity gain/loss and running drawdown (Difference between Balance and NAV). In the meantime, I'll add the Oanda A/C box just for good measure (there's always a slight discrepancy between Oanda and MyFXBook once market closes)

Hi Hambone,

Here is a screenshot of those EURGBP trades since last Nov. 18 Taken, 17 wins, 1 loss, for 458 pips in total. Hope that helps.

Cheers

Thank you Xeniz. That certainly helps. So it looks like you let some trades run into the red, as far as approx -200 pips. So your position size has to be small enough to accommodate this type of price movement and still allow you to average in at a better price point if price is still within range. So regarding Money Management, what % of risk do you typically take on for that first position - .30%

I don't have set stop-losses, the losses I take are quite fluid. As an example, here is the AUDNZD for the same period. 11 trades, 9 wins, 2 losses, for an overall loss of 98pips. One loss at Xmas, one when I had good gains in other pairs and did a "reset". So I don't win on all pairs, AUDNZD is one I am down on if we take that same snapshot window. But by trading 25+ pairs, it is all about probability. It just so happened that the second loss in this case was just before the market turned back up. I took another few trades riding it up. It could have continued down.

Hi Mike,

Sorry -I don't know if there is a way of attaching screenshots in the messages - if there is I can't see it. Here is the summary of the trades, please note I have stopped trading some of these (including wheat for example)

Hi man, nice result . SUB!