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  • #1,361
  • Edited 5:26am May 1, 2018 3:16am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting fex
We may expect a reaction in the "zones"... {image} {image}
In the case of GJ... yes it is possibile. And there is a technical reason already verified. (But everything could always be defeated...LOL )
And yes... the Point/Level you indicated is correct.

As I told thousands times: never try to predict! Never! It is a huge, dangerous mistake.
We are just and only studying some price action together! To understand Market Logic. Nothing more than that.

In the case of DAX... we are watching a past action... Market said NO with those last candles on the chart: Pin of Rejection plus Bearish Engulfing at Resistance.
Price went down to take out the Bulls Stop Losses...
We had a bounce UP from there: the 50% retrace. (MY long ENTRY)


PS I don't want to be accused again of overanalysis! Maybe with some reasons, this time!
We must learn to use these tools to follow the flow in its course and not to try to predict future movements.
This is the simple, IMMENSE difference to build a correct, winning mindset.
  • #1,362
  • May 1, 2018 3:38am May 1, 2018 3:38am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Yesterday DAX m5... I don't see any Flag or Wedge, my friend. {image}
...
  • #1,363
  • May 1, 2018 3:43am May 1, 2018 3:43am
Yesterday Close. DAX m5.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_05_18 10.39 DAX m5.JPG Size: 152 KB
  • #1,364
  • May 1, 2018 3:47am May 1, 2018 3:47am
Quoting Jupiter
I prefer to follow and not to try and anticipate...
but to follow don't you also need to anticipate a certain reaction at a certain level ? I was having a difficult time trying to differentiate between blindly following and following within a certain framework does it even make any sense ? if it doesn't just ignore them
...
  • #1,365
  • May 1, 2018 3:49am May 1, 2018 3:49am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} In the case of GJ... yes it is possibile. And there is a technical reason already verified. (But everything could always be defeated...LOL ) And yes... the Point/Level you indicated is correct. As I told thousands times: never try to predict! Never! It is a huge, dangerous mistake. We are just and only study some price action together! To understand Market Logic. Nothing more than that. In the case of DAX... we are watching a past action... Market said NO with those last candles on the chart: Pin of Rejection plus Bearish Engulfing...
We agree on this. In the case of the DAX, HTF says going up, and this TF has not broken clearly down. Therefore, selling would not be the best idea.
I still need to copy on the board a thousand times more: "never try to predict! Never!". May be its related with scaling out positions? I'm trying to improve my MM with you and fti.
Newbie trader
  • #1,366
  • May 1, 2018 3:51am May 1, 2018 3:51am
Quoting Jupiter
Yesterday Close. DAX m5. {image}
that catch up during US session I'm guessing thats where the majority of short orders were packed at and it had to move the price up to that point after finding support ?
...
  • #1,367
  • Edited 4:53am May 1, 2018 3:55am | Edited 4:53am
Discuss about trading on the Internet is an horrible thing.
There is this thing of (what I called) the "Babel's Tower".
We all use the same word but with different meaning!
I can never be sure of what I am saying... and of what you all are hearing/reading.

Moreover there is that question of my elementary English...
  • #1,368
  • Edited 4:07am May 1, 2018 3:56am | Edited 4:07am
Anticipation.
Bias.
Directional Bet.
Guesstimate.
Figuring.
Analysis.
Reference. Point of Reference.
Schemes.
Model.

versus
Prediction.
Gambling!

How to describe the limit? The boundaries?
The simplest answer is that: no expectations. Wait to see her generous hands and follow her.
But you must be FREE and well educated to get the proper meaning of this.
Continuous analysis of the Relative Forces... and total reception of the consequences: obey, accept, don't fight. Passive and quiet.
  • #1,369
  • May 1, 2018 3:59am May 1, 2018 3:59am
Quoting Jupiter
Discuss about trading on the Internet is an horrible thing. There this thing of (what I called) the "Babel's Tower". We all use the same word but with different meaning! I can never be sure of what I am sayng... and of what you all are hearing/reading. Moreover there is that question of my elementary English...
your english by all no means not elementary !
maybe it's me it probably is
...
  • #1,370
  • May 1, 2018 4:03am May 1, 2018 4:03am
Quoting Jupiter
How to describe the limit? The boundaries?
you have to wait for a "sign" on a predefined level or area ? if the sign is aligned with your anticipated reaction that's a go always keeping in mind that things can change !

but you have to have your context, framework, levels prior ... otherwise for me its just blindly following I made the mistake of just going wherever it went without the context and predefined levels thats how I would differentiate between blindly following and following within the right context. But to me there's also a right context and wrong context you can always sample half of the 5m chart and make the mistake of taking that as the context instead of sampling a greater area I did the mistake of sampling a very small portion of 5m chart.. this is also where analyzing different TFs come in which I wanted to ask you, do you think by restricting myself to 5m only am I also restricting my view therefore trading within the wrong context ?
...
  • #1,371
  • May 1, 2018 4:13am May 1, 2018 4:13am
(Follow and NOT Forecasting)
Classic time and tested rules...
Swing Highs and Swing Lows serve as the main pivots.

Get this point. And start your search at an higher level of comprehension.

And yes... at the beginning you must try to stay on the correct side of the chart you are trading!
This is my fraternal advice.
Reduce your universe.

If you put a trend indicator on your chart (Moving Averages!) try non to go against it! It is a suicide.
Don't learn to play contrarian. This way you will kill your mindset!
You won't see and won't respect your moving averages anymore.
The Floor Trader Method is a Classic, wonderful approach... if you get its spirit.
  • #1,372
  • May 1, 2018 4:28am May 1, 2018 4:28am
Quoting Jupiter
(Follow and NOT Forecasting) Classic time and tested rules... Swing Highs and Swing Lows serve as the main pivots. Get this point. And start your search at an higher level of comprehension. And yes... at the beginning you must try to stay on the correct side of the chart you are trading! This is my fraternal advice. Reduce your universe. If you put a trend indicator on your chart (Moving Averages!) try non to go against it! It is a suicide. Don't learn to play contrarian. This way you will kill your mindset! You won't see and won't respect your...
perfect !
...
  • #1,373
  • May 1, 2018 4:28am May 1, 2018 4:28am
i did not expect that kind of turmoil. my last status has nothing to do with jupiter's charts nor number of lines on them. it was meant generally.

let me explain:
do not overanalyze - too much of analysis is as bad as no analysis at all. one has to know how much of analysis is necessary or enough without falling in trap of overcomplicating which often leads to chaos and paralysis.

focus on NOW - do not hang on your analysis and be flexible. because price changes every minute. you have to action in real time. all analysis are worthless without correct actions in NOW.


dear jupiter. i do not think your insult was fair. please do not take things too personally and do not feel offended with NO reason. do not do analogies where they are not. doing presumptions without asking the real meaning is not a good way how to communicate with others. this has nothing to do with your english which is at very good level by the way.

hope you will understand the meaning of this post without calling anyone indirectly weird or arrogant. because none of that is true. thank you.
Reading coffee grounds..
  • #1,374
  • May 1, 2018 4:34am May 1, 2018 4:34am
Quoting st1
too much of analysis is as bad as no analysis at all. one has to know how much of analysis is necessary or enough without falling in trap of overcomplicating which often leads to chaos and paralysis. focus on NOW - do not hang on your analysis and be flexible. because price changes every minute. you have to action in real time. all analysis are worthless without correct actions in NOW. .
Simply perfect.
And this is all that matters.
  • #1,375
  • May 1, 2018 4:51am May 1, 2018 4:51am
Quoting fex
I still need to copy on the board a thousand times more: "never try to predict! Never!".

Somewhere I'm sure I have two interesting other quotes... one by Livermore and one by Linda...
I'll start my research immediately.
I promise.
  • #1,376
  • May 1, 2018 6:11am May 1, 2018 6:11am
Jesse Livermore: "A man can make foolish plays for no reason whatever..."
  • #1,377
  • May 1, 2018 6:12am May 1, 2018 6:12am
Linda Raschke
Preparation is the Secret to Confidence

I do not know where I originally got this from, but I have had it on the front of my trading binder for the past three decades:

“There can be no greater courage
when there is no confidence or assurance.
Half the battle is in the conviction
that you can accomplish what you undertake.

With practice you’ll come to a point of competence.
You’ll find yourself accomplishing your goals
with grace and confidence.

It’s then that you’ll do the things
that you never dreamed you could do.
You’ll discover powers you never knew existed.
If you’re prepared, you’re able to feel confident.

Confidence doesn’t come out of nowhere.
It’s the result of constant work and dedication.”
  • #1,378
  • May 1, 2018 7:10am May 1, 2018 7:10am
Quoting fex
... Therefore, selling would not be the best idea.
Don't judge. I mean, don't judge once and for all...
Ask her!
Ask Mother Market!

Use your scouts wisely and be ready to listen to their info.
If you are right... then...
If you are wrong... then this other one...
In both cases you must know what you have to do (according to your own personal style and book dimension/wealth)

This is the main idea behind the Livermore's "Probing Method."
  • #1,379
  • May 1, 2018 7:12am May 1, 2018 7:12am
“Trust the Process – Don’t Ask Questions”

I remember, some years ago, Linda telling this story.
She read these words on the back of the T-Shirt of a body builder at the gym.
The idea is clear... Imagine all those muscles under that statement...
and you get the point... ROFL

There is no such thing as a true trader who consistently relies on other’s leads, tips, or homework.
Though it is fine to learn what other people do (as part of the education process),
in the long run, you must develop your own process and style.
Only then you will truly be ready to enjoy playing the most dynamic game in the world.

You must have blind faith in your own trading process.
On your own Fixed Rules and your own Mental Road Map.

W.D. Gann: "The difference between success and failure in trading
is the difference between one man knowing and following FIXED RULES and the other man guessing."

I can't simply give you my Rules... it would be completely useless.
It doesn't work this way.
Trust in your own methods... which you understand, have a clear knowledge of and have tested on the ground by yourself.
There is no other person in the world that knows your mind, emotion and will.
How can a separate mind possibly tell you how and when to enter and exit a trade?

Now do your own work! Start now.
  • #1,380
  • May 1, 2018 11:48am May 1, 2018 11:48am
Quoting Jupiter
(Follow and NOT Forecasting) Classic time and tested rules... Swing Highs and Swing Lows serve as the main pivots. Get this point. And start your search at an higher level of comprehension. And yes... at the beginning you must try to stay on the correct side of the chart you are trading! This is my fraternal advice. Reduce your universe. If you put a trend indicator on your chart (Moving Averages!) try non to go against it! It is a suicide. Don't learn to play contrarian. This way you will kill your mindset! You won't see and won't respect your...
Do not be a salmon
Go with the current off the river
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