Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...UiCpWI3oxDAFA/

Germany Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline 4th Month, 7th Time in 9 Months
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...uUmzQOSfh1ubwA
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...%3Fversion%3D0


byMike Mish Shedlock



-edited
The EU GDP setup isn't pretty. Economists expected a 0.8% rise in German sales. Instead, sales fell 0.6%.
In the Eurozone, economists were way off the mark as German Monthly Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dropped.

German monthly retail sales unexpectedly fell in March, data showed today, marking a fourth consecutive drop and dampening cheer around a consumer-led upswing in Europe's biggest economy.

The volatile indicator, which is often subject to revision, showed retail sales decreased by 0.6% on the month in real terms, the Federal Statistics Office said.

That confounded the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.8% rise and followed an upwardly revised drop of 0.2% in February.

Slowing Global Growth
Data from Europe puts a nice spotlight on slowing global GDP.
Don't expect the ECB to be hiking or even tapering its balance sheet anytime soon. This is US dollar supportive.

Related Articles

1. Here We Go Again: GDPNow Projects 4.1% GDP
2. Consumer Spending Rebounds in March: I Propose it's Net Negative for 2nd Q GDP

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

1. https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...UiCpWI3oxDAFA/

https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...%3Fversion%3D0
caradoc-again

Currency wars not over as each fights to maintain exports, especially those most dependent on them - the EU.
Deflationary, bonds might get one last run up, $ up and emerging market borrowers take a hit. So many moving parts and linkages.


https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...%3Fversion%3D0
Mike Mish Shedlock



EU and Japanese leading indicators drooping alarmingly, only the US still rising. Those tax cuts might just save the day.
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...%3Fversion%3D0

Well so much for the "global synchronized growth" meme.

http://icecapassetmanagement.com/wp-...et-Outlook.pdf

Good Morning

For Your Information concerning Gold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...orecasts-crash


Benjaminis

BITCOIN PLEASE READ THANK YOU

Benjaminis

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416...oadblock=false

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416...le-1st-quarter

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29


Benjaminis

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416...oadblock=false

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bu...ns-currencies/

Good Morning Forex Traders

I have closed my open two long positions on Gold and Silver with a small profit. There is a reason and a lesson why I have done this.

First today we have a substantial risk event. That is the FED rate announcement at 2 PM.

I will return later this morning to continue with many other things that I want to share with you.


Benjaminis

https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/ec...UKNsk1doqxJ1Q/

Moving Average Bounces Getting Weaker and Weaker: Major Carnage Coming
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...zkuzgH1lVpKNqg
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...q6Q%2Fphoto%3F
byMike Mish Shedlock


Bounces off the 200 Day exponential moving average lines keep getting weaker for all the major indexes.
S&P Daily
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...BEibyYDR1mtr0Q

Russell 2000 Daily
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...R0uVCo8o9qko1w

Nasdaq 100 Daily
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...R0GRDkGjJIuV1A

When those moving average bounces fail, and they will, what then?


For the answer, let's look at weekly charts.
Dow Weekly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...zUCC3irhs-ngxw

S&P 500 Weekly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...DU6-hG1206Rx8A

Russell 2000 Weekly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...fU-tajAtSRAjpA

Nasdaq 100 Weekly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...RkmC2JanvaoPCg

Those 50-week exponential moving averages will break. When that happens I expect a quick plunge to the 200-week EMA.


Will that be the end? If I am right, that's not even close.


I expect all the gains back to 2007 to be wiped out. To visualize, we need to look at monthly EMAs.
Dow Monthly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...J0-oMHXrnP5igg

S&P 500 Monthly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...8kWmu2F4FvD8qA

Russell 2000 Monthly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http..._U2Ko6MQ_eLw6Q

Nasdaq 100 Monthly
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...6UeVhSSaadhMhA

With the exception of the Nasdaq 100, a decline to what is now the 200-month EMA would take us to where I believe we are headed.

Superbear?
Does this make me a superbear?

Hardly.
John Hussman, who does excellent technical and fundamental work is far more bearish: "I Expect the S&P 500 to Lose 2/3 of Its Value"said Hussman in January.


My charts suggest about 50% except for the Nasdaq.


Pension Fund Disaster
The sad part of this story is that despite the biggest bull market in history, pension funds are extremely underfunded.
Whether the decline is 33%, 50%, or 66%, pension funds will get crushed.


Heck, given 7% per-year assumptions, even flat returns for seven years will destroy many if not most of them.


For discussion, please see Global Pension Gap Expected to Hit $400 Trillion: US Leads the Way.

By the way, asset bubble bursting episodes are anything but inflationary. If you think massive inflation is right around the bend, please think again: Velocity of Money Picks Up: Inflation Coming? Stagflation? How About Deflation?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2551.htm

Have open 4 positions now and closed 3 and back to bed now.


Benjaminis

Good Morning Forex Traders - Retail & Commercial

I started to trade this $50,000 US Funds Demo Account using the unique FXCM UK Forex trading platform on February 27, 2018. Here we are 66 days later and I have closed all my open positions.

I have made 75 Forex Trades in this period with my first 18 trades all winning trades. Then I took two small losses and resumed my winning streak. My last 55 Forex trades have all been winning ones.

You may ask how is that possible well it is because of my 15 years of experience in the Forex Industry.

I will edit this post later this morning and share my basic strategies. They are FOOLPROOF unless the Forex Trader does not have the necessary skills required. These skills require DISCIPLINE.

Discipline to finish what you start. Discipline to have an open mind and learn.

I use a $50,000 US Funds FXCM UK Demo Trading Account so that over a period of 90 Days, I can teach you how to trade properly removing your FEAR and your GREED.

My GOAL is to have you achieve a return of 5% ROI monthly.

You can NEVER do that unless you trade with a minimum of $50,000 US Dollars and use my time and result proven methods.

Of course most of you do not have $50,000 US Dollars to trade with however if you show my corporation that you can and will reach the goal of profits of a minimum of $7500.00 US Dollars over the 90 days then you will have access to trade $50,000 US Dollars under an LPOA. (Limited Power of Attorney)

You can keep 40% of all the profits that you make each month.

If you lose money and your LPOA Real Funds Account goes below 50% of the value in any month actual loss or a DRAW DOWN then your Forex Trading Rights under the LPOA will be terminated and my corporation will be responsible for any losses incurred so your risk is zero.

I hope to have my corporate website opened no later than September 1, 2018. It could be earlier however these matters always seem to not be on schedule for which I take full responsibility because of major changes to my business model since I started this thread on December 3, 2016 nearly One and One Half years ago.

I have also decided to have a one time charge of $250.00 US Dollars for anyone taking the 90 day Forex Trading course.

For all others not taking the course then once the corporate website is up and running the monthly cost will be $50.00 US Monthly with no contract needed and 24 7, ACCESS !

You will be notified here when my corporate website is ready.


Benjaminis

 

1. Post 4,669
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Apr 11, 2018 6:22am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,936 Posts | Online Now

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year.
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time.
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will give me your user name and password so that I can check your results daily. (By PM)
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge and at the end of the 30 days I will give you a grade out of 100 HOWEVER your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons that sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD IN ORDER TO HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank You and have a Great Trading Day !!!


Benjaminis

From a Thread called Knowledge Is Power
Copy and Paste


We welcome constructive criticism and well founded discussion. Inflammatory, rude, repetitive, offensive, off-topic or otherwise disruptive messages designed intentionally to annoy, stimulate or antagonize the existing members or alter the flow of discussion are NOT welcome and will be reported to the moderator team.

I will also start a sister-thread as a digest and to store all the cream from this thread and also as storage for all indicators posted for ease of reference.

10 Trading Rules for Successful Traders
1. Limit your losses.
2. Let your profits run.
3. Keep position sizes within reason.
4. Know your risk-reward ration.
5. Be adequately capitalised.
6. Dont fight the trend.
7. Never add to losing positions. Dont average out.
8. Know market expectations.
9. Learn from your mistakes keep a trading journal.
10. Have a maximum loss or retracement in profits.


For beginners, please read this free Forex education material and learn to be a successful trader: www.BabyPips.com

And also you are advised to read these excellent books:
1. Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies To Profit from Market Swings (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) - by Kathy Lien

2. Technical Analysis of the Currency Market: Classic Techniques for Profiting from Market Swings and Trader Sentiment (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) By Boris Schlossberg

3.High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market By Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien


You can preview the 1st and 3rd books here:
http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...sec=frontcover

http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...+lien%22&psp=1

The Essence of the 3rd book is here:
1. Never let a winner turn into a loser
2. Logic wins, impulse kills
3. Never risk more than 2% per trade
4. Trigger fundamentally, enter and exit technically
5. Always pair strong with weak
6. Being right but being early simply mean you are wrong
7. Know the difference between scaling in and adding to a loser
8. What is mathematically optimal is psychologically impossible
9. Risk can be and is predetermined but reward is unpredictable
10. No excuses, ever

BEWARE:
Why Currency Trading Is Not For Everyone?
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Remember, you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, which means that you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. If you have any doubts, it is advisable to seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You may be liable for losses that exceed the amount of margin that you post. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.

Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of “Beat the Odds in Forex Trading” by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful trader’s career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting psychological stress, because in real life it is impossible to completely eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity. Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on trader and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way, in accord with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failure on market’s “wrong behaviour”, which didn’t comply with the trader’s brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their own inabilities to make right decisions in situations, which afterwards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the lost critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view. Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I don’t think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterday’s situation from today’s point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis at allows for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influence by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phenomenal) results trading dummy accounts but can’t even come near those result when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of profitable position, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders become fearful of the market. They are in as state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision – reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the trader’s position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyse daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they come to the conclusion that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. However, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, even everything should be begun again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the trader’s wilful thinking. In this case, treaders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market cannot and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sire they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their own position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The market’s “wrong behaviour” not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the “wrong behaviour” or themselves for errors in what then seems an absolutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their personal enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact ht at they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Traders should always have close at hand one or few options in case of sudden change of the situation/weather, so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills – specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, treaders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any moment (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses, until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Sacred and trouble traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period of time, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealer’s spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market “noise”. Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficiently psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders’ impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders’ fear of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock to them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emotion, can watch a bank casher counting other people’s money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other people’s money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The soon traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because there situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders’ ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX marker are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma – the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.


Benjaminis

http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy

The last two posts that I did lead to a Trade Plan of shorting 3 positions of USD/JPY using capital of $3000 US Dollars and ONLY to be followed using a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK. If you decide to take me up on my offer to teach proper Forex trading using my Money Flow Method and Risk Management and limited to only the first 6 people that post their name here on this thread as there is much work involved for me in doing this however I am convinced beyond any doubt that as long as the Forex Trader can control his/her EGO and Greed and the most destructive emotion , FEAR then using my method my goal is to assist the demo trader to earn a minimum profit in demo terms of course of $2500.00 or 5% of the trading account.

I repeat the conditions of my offer below.

It is common knowledge that 95% of all currency traders specifically the retail traders lose their money. There is a reason of course. I took over 3 years to learn my trade only Demo Trading and that was a great learning experience for me since FEAR was eliminated and Greed was not really much of any issue since I could not spend my demo dollars on the nice things in life. :-)

The EGO in my case was build up since over 75% of all my forex trades were winning ones and I averaged a ROI or return on demo investment of $50,000 US dollars of a minimum of 5% each and every month during the last year during 2005 of my demo trading. I would NEVER trade real funds unless my starting capital was $25,000 US and there is a reason behind that.

Risk Management is the MOST IMPORTANT part of my teaching. I am still looking for a maximum of 6 forex traders that would take 30 days to learn free of charge my Money Flow Method with proper Risk Management.

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or ROI of 5%

FULL DISCLOSURE: I used to be an Introducing Broker with FXCM in New York back during 2007 and 2008. I had a real funds account for a client located in Hong Kong and I was managing $125,000 US Funds. I have no business arrangement with either FXCM in New York or FXCM UK in London.

I moved all my business to Ava Trade in Ireland and I am an introducing Broker with them however I have recently decided to bring all my business back to Canada so I am not active with Ava Trade at the moment. I am working on putting up a website early next year during 2017 and I will have a 24 hour by subscription service charging no more than $50.00 US a month for full access. I used to use the services of Trade The News in order to have full voice news during the 24 hour FX trading day. I today entered into an understanding with Ransquak to use their live platform under a subscription contract which my corporation will use.

If any of the 6 initial persons here take my 30 day trading course and go through the 30 day period then when my website is up and running next year the 6 here will get a lifetime subscription at no cost. I plan to trade for at least 10 more years since I really love what I do and enjoy sharing my knowledge and skills with others.


Benjaminis