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  • #6,161
  • Apr 24, 2018 2:02pm Apr 24, 2018 2:02pm
Quoting mike.noname
{quote} Hi T4i, very nice analysis, thanks for sharing. Attached you will find my analysis for AUDNZD. I would definitly search for long entries (demand zones). I can't decide which demand zone I would take. Any ideas on that? Thanks in advance. Greetings Mike {image}
The lowest zone ie. D4 is higher probability IMHO.
Live life king size !
  • #6,162
  • Apr 24, 2018 2:12pm Apr 24, 2018 2:12pm
Quoting foxtrader16
{quote} The lowest zone ie. D4 is higher probability IMHO.
I concur, I've marked out and prefer that zone as well
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,163
  • Apr 24, 2018 2:41pm Apr 24, 2018 2:41pm
Hi foxtrader16 and T4i,

Thanks for your answer.

May I ask, why you think, that the probability is higher? Because it is within the weekly and daily demand zone and it's a lower zone + it took out a supply zone?

What I don’t get (maybe I have to think over my rules again) when I wait for the zone to be reached, there is a high probability, that the moment line is broken and I search for short trades (supply zones). What do you think about this? Once decided, do you stay with this zone, also when the momentum trend changes?

I personally think that D1 is not bad: It is a quite new zone, it took out a supply zone and there was a kind of equilibrium. Maybe at D1, the R:R is not that good and would keep some trades away from trading this zone.

Thanks in advance.

Greetings Mike
  • #6,164
  • Apr 24, 2018 3:23pm Apr 24, 2018 3:23pm
Quoting mike.noname
Hi foxtrader16 and T4i, Thanks for your answer. May I ask, why you think, that the probability is higher? Because it is within the weekly and daily demand zone and it's a lower zone + it took out a supply zone? What I don’t get (maybe I have to think over my rules again) when I wait for the zone to be reached, there is a high probability, that the moment line is broken and I search for short trades (supply zones). What do you think about this? Once decided, do you stay with this zone, also when the momentum trend changes? I personally think that...

Hey Mike,

I hope I can help you with this but you don't have to agree with me since I am still learning the methodology as well.

Answer 1: yes
Answer 2: yep, you can go can short (countertrend) as well but be mindful.
quote from Akt
"One note as i was reading your post it occurred to me that you have made a decision to trade both sides, i mean, with trend and counter trend.
That is do-able for sure but they require not only different time-frames but also, and most importantly, different mindsets.
Some traders take more easily to counter trend trades and others to trend trading.
Doing both will require you to develop the skills of being able to switch hats with each trade."

see my notes on your charts.

like I've said, you don't have to agree :-)
wait and see what the advanced members think about it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Apr 24 22-13-42.png Size: 331 KB
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,165
  • Edited Apr 25, 2018 12:26pm Apr 24, 2018 4:04pm | Edited Apr 25, 2018 12:26pm
Hi T4i,

thank you very much for your answer. In most points, I agree with you.

Quote
Answer 2: yep, you can go can short (countertrend) as well but be mindful.
quote from Akt

I kept that advice in mind, but I think, when the price is moving down to zone D3 or D4 , I think will have a declining momentum line (I use the line from the daily chart). Then this would not be a counter trend. When I decide to trade D4 now, it is not against the momentum trend, when trading let's say in one or two weeks, this might be a counter trend trade.

I agree with you one zone D3, 6 candles are too much and maybe you are right on D1. I think D4 is quite strong, as it was the zone that caused the start of the uptrend.

When I look very closely, in the marked D1 zone might be already the third touch.

Edit: AUDNZD is moving into the direction of the daily supply zone.

Thank you.

Greetings Mike
  • #6,166
  • Apr 25, 2018 1:50pm Apr 25, 2018 1:50pm
Hi traders,

Some thoughts about supply / demand zones that I have in my mind. (I always need to write down my thoughts to sort them out, review and overthink them).

How are supply / demand zones created and why does the price tend to move back to this zone? I always want to know, why things happen, I tried to find my zones are created and how they work.

The price is created by the number of the executed buy and sells orders, when there are more buy orders than sell orders, the price will rise.

Example: At the given price of 20 USD we have 200 buy orders and 100 sell orders. For every executed buy order, there must be a sell order and the other way round. So 100 buy orders are executed, the other 100 buy orders will be executed on the next price level, let's say on 20.5. It depends on the sell orders at a specific price level, if all the 100 left over buy orders are executed. So the number of the executed buy or sell orders at a specific price level makes the price move up or down.

Institutions usually have a big amount of money to invest in the market. Therefor they place a lot of buy or sell orders at a market within a specific price range. We keep in mind, for every seller, there must be a buyer and vice a versa. So that they get their orders executed, they need the opposite. This means, when institutions are placing a lot of buy orders, all the sell orders, which are on the market will be swallowed up to execute the institutional orders. When there are no more sell orders left, the price will rocket high and cause a big candle. So in the zone (kind of equilibrium) before the big candle, institutions are placing their trades and some of them are executed. In many cases Institutions are not able to get all their trades executed in this zone, so they place sell trades to make the price decline to the zone, where there are still orders left, which are execute then. The short downtrend brings sell orders into the market, which can then be used to execute the left over buy orders. Through the execution of these orders the price will rise again.

These are my thoughts based on this article and on other threads in this forum.
https://www.forexmentoronline.com/th...trading-guide/

For me it is always important to have a clue, why zones are created. Maybe this is not 100 % correct, but it sounds very logical.

Maybe there is also a self-fulfilling prophecy with the zones. At an obvious demand zone, many buy orders are placed, because everyone thinks, that price will rise from there. But maybe institutions will use these buy orders to place short trades and make the market go the other way.

I do not claim that this is all correct but my words should be seen as a basis for discussion on how zones might be created. When we know under what circumstances and how zones are created, we maybe can trade them with higher probability. I think trading with the big institutions is the only way to gain consistent profit from trading. When trading against institutions, you will be on the loser side.

All comments are appreciated.

Thank you
Greetings Mike
  • #6,167
  • Apr 26, 2018 5:42pm Apr 26, 2018 5:42pm
Hi to all,

here I will give a short update on my trading plan (see the bold font)

- my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H
- on the weekly chart I mark the nearest supply / demand zone
- on the daily chart I mark the supply / demand zones and I draw the momentum line
- for the entry I use the 4H chart
- on the 4H chart I mark the supply / demand zones
- on the 4H chart I take trades according to the momentum line of the daily chart.
- when daily momentum line is broken by an ohcl candle, I take the trade in the opposite direction of the daily momentum line. The first zone after the break of the line seems to be quite important. In many cases, the first zone after the break of the line is visited again.
- the zone on the 4H chart must be embedded in a weekly or daily supply / demand zone

Attached you will also find my trading idea on EURUSD.

- we have a declining momentum line, the line is not completely broken, so I search for supply zones
- the price is approaching the weekly demand zone, so there is a probability that the price will move up soon.
- I would prefer zone s3 --> zone s3 took out demand zone and is within the weekly and daily supply zone. I think it is a nice DBD zone.

What do you think?

Thank you
Greetings Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,168
  • Edited 4:44am Apr 27, 2018 3:58am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting mike.noname
Hi to all, here I will give a short update on my trading plan (see the bold font) - my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H - on the weekly chart I mark the nearest supply / demand zone - on the daily chart I mark the supply / demand zones and I draw the momentum line - for the entry I use the 4H chart - on the 4H chart I mark the supply / demand zones - on the 4H chart I take trades according to the momentum line of the daily chart. - when daily momentum line is broken by an ohcl candle, I take the trade in the opposite direction of the daily...

Hi Mike,

here is my outlook on the EURUSD looks the same :-)

Weekly
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EDIT:

Weekly on a second thought, is this really a quality demand?
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Daily ( I´ve entered off of the Daily DBD and took some profits 2:1 and sl at break even.)
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4hr
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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,169
  • Apr 27, 2018 11:27am Apr 27, 2018 11:27am
Damn,joined today,impressed by the level of intellect on here. How effective are algorithms for trading? Just wondering
  • #6,170
  • Apr 28, 2018 6:10am Apr 28, 2018 6:10am
I think USDJPY is About to pull Back A nd maybe create supply zone on smaller timeframes before it can shoot up
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  • #6,171
  • Apr 28, 2018 8:10am Apr 28, 2018 8:10am
Quoting T4i
{quote} Hi Mike, here is my outlook on the EURUSD looks the same :-) Weekly {image} EDIT: Weekly on a second thought, is this really a quality demand? {image} Daily ( I´ve entered off of the Daily DBD and took some profits 2:1 and sl at break even.) {image} 4hr {image}


Hi T4i,

Thank you for you answer.

I don't really have definitions for a quality zone for now, as I just started. My ideas about the quality of zones:

- There should be a clean and fast entry into the zone with big candles
- There should be a clean and fast exit with big candles
- There should be kind of equilibrium, that consists of 3-6 candles
- A good zone should have taken out another zone of the opposite
- The less zones have been touched, the better
- Personally I would not trade zones that are too far away

@all trades please have a look at this criteria. How would you define the quality of a zone?

Quoting Thunderbird9
Damn,joined today,impressed by the level of intellect on here. How effective are algorithms for trading? Just wondering


Hi, this is a thread about supply / demand trading. I think everyone in here beliefs that supply / demand trading is an effective way of trading. I don’t know anything about automated trading. Maybe it is possible to write some algorithm (maybe there is something existing, I don’t know) for automated supply / demand trading, or maybe for scanning for zones. But I think on the market there are many factors that can’t be or hardly can be included when an algorithm trades for you. I think as a successful trader you need to understand what is going on in the market, what the chart, the price and zones tell you.
Keep in mind that this is the opinion of a newbie in trading and supply demand trading. Maybe the senior trades are thinking in a complete other way.

Thank you
Greetings Mike
  • #6,172
  • Edited Apr 29, 2018 5:04am Apr 28, 2018 9:03am | Edited Apr 29, 2018 5:04am
Hi traders,

I will give you my trading idea for EURCAD.

- Daily downtrend momentum is broken, so according to my plan, I look for long entries
- According to my plan, the first zone after the break is important; the momentum line is broken with a zone
- My entry would be the d1 zone, so I should enter the long trade now, as the d1 zone is in control now
- The d1 zone took out one supply zone, has not been touched until now, has a nice entry and exit and an equilibrium of 4 candles

What do you think?

Thanks.

Greetings Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD idea.jpg Size: 348 KB
  • #6,173
  • Apr 29, 2018 5:05am Apr 29, 2018 5:05am
Quoting mike.noname
Hi trades, I will give you my trading idea for EURCAD. - Daily downtrend momentum is broken, so according to my plan, I look for long entries - According to my plan, the first zone after the break is important; the momentum line is broken with a zone - My entry would be the d1 zone, so I should enter the long trade now, as the d1 zone is in control now - The d1 zone took out one supply zone, has not been touched until now, has a nice entry and exit and an equilibrium of 4 candles What do you think? Thanks. Greetings Mike {image}
Hi,

- currently in a daily demand (blue dotted lines)
- yellow zone is the 4hr
- red zone is the 1hr zone ( entry refinement to reduce risk)
- the arrival of price on the 4hr time frame currently basing which is why the profit margin is not good.

Decision matrix
=> buy
=> confirmation entry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,174
  • Apr 29, 2018 5:38am Apr 29, 2018 5:38am
Quoting T4i
{quote} Hi, - currently in a daily demand (blue dotted lines) - yellow zone is the 4hr - red zone is the 1hr zone ( entry refinement to reduce risk) - the arrival of price on the 4hr time frame currently basing which is why the profit margin is not good. Decision matrix => buy => confirmation entry {image}


Hi T4i,

Thank you for answer.

I agree with you regarding the profit margin: on my chart, the is a supply zone right above the demand zone i marked.

One question regarding your yellow h4 demand zone: I really don't get how you draw this zone. It seems that it starts at 1/3 of the big green candle and goes up to the closing price? How do you draw or recognize zones, which are within a candle? Do you go down to h1 for that?

Thanks in advance.

Greetings Mike
  • #6,175
  • Apr 29, 2018 5:54am Apr 29, 2018 5:54am
Hi peeps

outlook on NZDCAD

Weekly
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240min
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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,176
  • Apr 29, 2018 6:46am Apr 29, 2018 6:46am
Hi,
@T4i: Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Here are my thoughts on NZDCAD.

I am sometimes in a dilemma in which direction to trade like here in NZDCAD.

- For me, on the one hand, the daily momentum line says go short = wait for supply zone to be reached
- On the other hand, the momentum line on h4 is broken = go long
What would be your decisions in this cause? Would you prefer trading in the direction of the daily or h4 momentum line?

Here my analysis for NZDCAD:

- Daily momentum is declining --> look for shorts
- Weekly demand zone is in control
- I would wait for supply zone s2 to be reached and go short there
- s2 zone took out a demand zone
- d1 zone has been touched
- s1 is within the weekly demand zone --> not a good zone

Other trading opportunity: go long with the d1 zone, the price maybe rise up to s2, I think the s1 will not hold, as the zone is within the weekly demand zone

Thank you.
Greetings Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCAD idea.jpg Size: 409 KB
  • #6,177
  • Apr 29, 2018 5:43pm Apr 29, 2018 5:43pm
Quoting mike.noname
Hi, @T4i: Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Here are my thoughts on NZDCAD. I am sometimes in a dilemma in which direction to trade like here in NZDCAD. - For me, on the one hand, the daily momentum line says go short = wait for supply zone to be reached - On the other hand, the momentum line on h4 is broken = go long What would be your decisions in this cause? Would you prefer trading in the direction of the daily or h4 momentum line? Here my analysis for NZDCAD: - Daily momentum is declining --> look for shorts - Weekly demand zone is in control...
Hey Mike

As far as your dilemma is concerned, I would suggest you spend some time in understanding the methodology.

Decision is not based on just one time frame but the 3 time frames that lead to your entry TF. If they are not in sync decision is easy ... Do Not Trade.

I do not believe in trading counter trends so will not say anything there.
Live life king size !
  • #6,178
  • Apr 30, 2018 3:02am Apr 30, 2018 3:02am
Hello AKT and my Senior S and D traders i greet u all, Am happy to be part of this group of recent i've learnt a whole lot, please i need urv comments on my posted chat below. thanks
  • #6,179
  • Apr 30, 2018 3:04am Apr 30, 2018 3:04am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JSuDmBRV/
  • #6,180
  • Apr 30, 2018 3:07am Apr 30, 2018 3:07am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/80tnMvJS/
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