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Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

  • #12,781
  • Apr 23, 2018 4:36am Apr 23, 2018 4:36am
It's a shame nobody made a short video yet but MichaelG made a fantastic word doc on how to trade this that even idiots like me can mostly understand. That word doc is a must read and can be found in the paperclip.
  • #12,782
  • Apr 23, 2018 6:11am Apr 23, 2018 6:11am
Quoting iamchico
New trades this morning at 8.30 am (GMT+2). I cannot paste screenshots right now... I try to explain clearly what I did. First trade (EURUSD) Spotted a valid setup on EURUSD at 8.30 am (GMT+2). I got stopped out (-16 pips) right after 9.00 am (GMT+2) after price set a new daily high (+0.5 pips of previous high), it has been a quick raise. I think I have learned that the beginning of London session could be really unpredictable, I will (try to) wait AFTER London opens to avoid big swings. Is it common to see this kind of movements exactly when London...
Hi, I was about to advise you that trading EU at the beginning of the session Open was very unwise - doubly so on a Monday - when you went on to answer your own question!

This does actually hold true for the other pairs and their respective ''home'' zones.

You should remember that HOLO works best in a ranging market. We are looking to work in the time after a new extreme is made, 1-2-3 has caught the extreme reaction and then price settles down. Often there will then be a retrace and that is when HOLO gets in on the game.

Well done for figuring it out.
  • #12,783
  • Apr 23, 2018 6:14am Apr 23, 2018 6:14am
Quoting 2dollardog
A lot of questions on this thread. Thanks for the support lemercenaire. I have some personal rules and then I'll share a tip, but that tip needs to be qualified so don't blame me if you don't read all the way through. Rules: Re: Entry 1 - When in doubt, don't. Figure out why you don't know. 2 - WAIT FOR IT TO SAY, THIS IS A SURE DEAL 3 - If a reversal seems to happen after extreme prices and it looks weak, take a 1-2-3 setup on the next bar to be safe. 4 - Trade like a sniper, not a machine gun runner. 5 - KEEP YOUR HAND OFF THAT MOUSE AND DON'T...

Hi 2dollardog, your post is really valuable. I took few days to digest the content and I am now looking into studying correlations as well as PA.

I agree with all your points. The real challenge for me now is related to points 7, 8, 11, 12, 13... I am learning to be disciplined, patient, etc. It's something I have been improving a lot, and I have to say looking at charts during the day, from time to time, it's helping me to understand that there are plenty of good possible trades. I don't have to take them all (also, I cannot because I work full time).

I have a couple of questions:
1) I have a read to 1-2-3 method, maybe I am short but I couldn't get the difference between that and HoLo. Could you please explain? I will try to learn that one too, even though for now I want to focus 100% on HoLo until I can master it and spotting possible setups more naturally.
2) When you say "Generally, the direction of the dollar is established at London Open and it will run in this general direction until about noon NY time before it reverses to dwindle the other way the rest of the day. You absolutely MUST see this on the charts, not go by what I write."... do you think I could see this behavior better on 1H charts? I understand that price is fractal, but I tried to look at this particular behavior on EURUSD on 15M chart and I've found it a bit "noisy", if you get what I mean. I want to follow your suggestion and being able at getting those patterns on EURUSD before "studying" currency correlations.
  • #12,784
  • Apr 23, 2018 6:35am Apr 23, 2018 6:35am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hi, I was about to advise you that trading EU at the beginning of the session Open was very unwise - doubly so on a Monday - when you went on to answer your own question! This does actually hold true for the other pairs and their respective ''home'' zones. You should remember that HOLO works best in a ranging market. We are looking to work in the time after a new extreme is made, 1-2-3 has caught the extreme reaction and then price settles down. Often there will then be a retrace and that is when HOLO gets in on the game. Well done for figuring...

Hi Lemercenaire, I've heard about 1-2-3 method from you and 2dollardog, I've read its thread (briefly to be honest because I want to put all my efforts on HoLo now) but it was difficult for me to understand the difference between that and HoLo. With HoLo we trade reversals, so do we with 1-2-3 with the difference of price testing daily highs? Is that correct?

On a side note, looking back at 1HR EURUSD chart, I probabily made a mistake. I have considered the highest daily open on the green candle and set my Area of Interest from there, but the real highest daily open had been set by the candle circled in yellow. I have been misled by the fact that the price was on downtrend and naturally I always look at opens when price is trending up.

Attached Image


So at then end, this morning trades haven't been HoLo setups at all.
  • #12,785
  • Apr 23, 2018 6:44am Apr 23, 2018 6:44am
Quoting iamchico
{quote} Hi Lemercenaire, I've heard about 1-2-3 method from you and 2dollardog, I've read its thread (briefly to be honest because I want to put all my efforts on HoLo now) but it was difficult for me to understand the difference between that and HoLo. With HoLo we trade reversals, so do we with 1-2-3 with the difference of price testing daily highs? Is that correct? On a side note, looking back at 1HR EURUSD chart, I probabily made a mistake. I have considered the highest daily open on the green candle and set my Area of Interest from there, but...
Yes, 1-2-3 runs off a trigger-candle which has made a new high or low, HOLO runs from a new high or low Open on H1.

Once a 1-2-3 has triggered, it then becomes a potential HOLO set-up.

You are doing the right thing, however, in concentrating on one method at a time while learning. It is easy to become confused at the beginning, or when rushing (which of course, one should never do anyway!)
  • #12,786
  • Apr 23, 2018 10:38am Apr 23, 2018 10:38am
EU could bring something. Maybe not right away but surely sooner rather than later...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1asPossHOLO23rdApril18.png Size: 33 KB


Check out the levels on H4 and Daily.
  • #12,787
  • Apr 23, 2018 12:25pm Apr 23, 2018 12:25pm
Who is taking the 10 trade challenge the week of April 22, 2018?

During the challenge you are only to trade the same pair.

Beginners do not get to trade multiple pairs until they have mastered trading one single pair.

GREEN PIPS TO ALL.
Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #12,788
  • Apr 23, 2018 12:28pm Apr 23, 2018 12:28pm
Quoting lemercenaire
EU could bring something. Maybe not right away but surely sooner rather than later... {image} Check out the levels on H4 and Daily.
perhaps not today.
USD is too strong.
  • #12,789
  • Apr 23, 2018 12:31pm Apr 23, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Yes, 1-2-3 runs off a trigger-candle which has made a new high or low, HOLO runs from a new high or low Open on H1. Once a 1-2-3 has triggered, it then becomes a potential HOLO set-up. You are doing the right thing, however, in concentrating on one method at a time while learning. It is easy to become confused at the beginning, or when rushing (which of course, one should never do anyway!)
It depends on what you mean by triggered. Once a H1 candle makes a new daily high/low and closes, there is a 1-2-3. If the opening H1 candle has a daily highest/lowest H1 open, then we have a HOLO.

Sometimes a 1-2-3 is a HOLO and sometimes a HOLO is a 1-2-3.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #12,790
  • Apr 23, 2018 1:48pm Apr 23, 2018 1:48pm
Quoting Hairi
{quote} perhaps not today. USD is too strong.
It's hit as a 1-2-3 just now (19:00 uk time candle).
  • #12,791
  • Apr 23, 2018 3:03pm Apr 23, 2018 3:03pm
Quoting iamchico
{quote} Hi 2dollardog, your post is really valuable. I took few days to digest the content and I am now looking into studying correlations as well as PA. I agree with all your points. The real challenge for me now is related to points 7, 8, 11, 12, 13... I am learning to be disciplined, patient, etc. It's something I have been improving a lot, and I have to say looking at charts during the day, from time to time, it's helping me to understand that there are plenty of good possible trades. I don't have to take them all (also, I cannot because I work...
I see lemercenaire has answered a few of your questions. My suggestion: Pull up MichaelG's pdf of this trade setup and print it out. I slept with mine. Literally. I would wake up and find I had fallen asleep looking at it.

During any of your trading adventure, it's important to have self-discipline - not only while trading, but while learning as well. Don't really understand? It's important to recognize you don't understand. I've gone to the lengths to print out quotes from good traders and friendly hedge fund managers who offered advice over the years. I'd tape copies to the wall beside my bed, pasted it into my background on my computer screen and also pinned it up on the wall in front of my throne in the bathroom.

And sometimes, I will hand write them multiple times to memorize them. This is true of anything I didn't understand. I'm not the brightest cookie in the bag, but I had one edge: I understand that if I repeatedly read something, I will eventually come to understand it. This has never failed me.

Know your weaknesses. Capitalize on your strengths.

Sit and watch the charts for hours on end, watch the flow of the movement of your pair. See if you can feel it's pulse. Watch how your perspective changes when you're tired or you're stressed from work or past due bills. During this time you can learn about yourself, too. I had to trade demo to remain focused while doing this, (but it became a bad habit that had to end later when I went live). Do whatever it takes, don't do what you shouldn't do and you'll get there.

Manual backtest. Pull up trading view and position it so you cannot see the next candle. Is it the daily high or low? Why not? What's it doing and why? Do this on the HoLo method. Wait a day or two. Then, do it on the 1-2-3 setup. You'll see it eventually. Again, you won't have the answers away, but after spending hundreds of hours manually backtesting, you're gonna know that pair very well, indeed and the answers will come and the puzzle pieces will begin to fit together - until you find another missing puzzle. For me EURJPY just did that to me. Ha! The market and it's crazies.

It doesn't sound like I answered your questions, but I just did. If a wall is green, but your eyesight doesn't recognize the color green, my telling you it's green isn't going to help you identify all the green walls in the world when I cannot hang out and inform you. Trading is this way. You gotta learn to bend your own mind to see that wall for yourself.

Otherwise, I'll be here to cheer you on! Good luck, pardner.
  • #12,792
  • Apr 23, 2018 3:12pm Apr 23, 2018 3:12pm
This could give some juice through the evening here. The USD is really strong just now and so I'd stay away from going against The Greenback, so this could give a small interest...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH1maygetsomejuicehere23rdApril18.png Size: 41 KB
  • #12,793
  • Apr 23, 2018 11:07pm Apr 23, 2018 11:07pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW.png Size: 58 KB


USD too strong?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #12,794
  • Apr 24, 2018 9:52am Apr 24, 2018 9:52am
I've managed to get 30 mins free to look at the charts and place a trade.


EURUSD trade #1
on first 15M candle inside area of interest but it reversed back to daily high and got stopped out (-13 pips)

second time that I see behaviors like this

EURUSD trade #2
enetred again on second 15M candle inside area of interest, I'm still in

Attached Image
  • #12,795
  • Apr 24, 2018 10:10am Apr 24, 2018 10:10am
Quoting iamchico
I've managed to get 30 mins free to look at the charts and place a trade. EURUSD trade #1 on first 15M candle inside area of interest but it reversed back to daily high and got stopped out (-13 pips) second time that I see behaviors like this EURUSD trade #2 enetred again on second 15M candle inside area of interest, I'm still in {image}
Is there something you can see here that is giving you this behaviour? (You say that you have seen it before - is there any common events, or is it just a coincidence?)
  • #12,796
  • Apr 24, 2018 10:47am Apr 24, 2018 10:47am
Had a little fun. Made a little money. Thanks, TooSlow and lemercenaire. Going to bed now... https://gyazo.com/fb4a191b339629a38c46f1d9c03fd9f2
  • #12,797
  • Apr 24, 2018 12:14pm Apr 24, 2018 12:14pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Is there something you can see here that is giving you this behaviour? (You say that you have seen it before - is there any common events, or is it just a coincidence?)

No, I mean that I've already seen the market behaving like that (price goes through highest open and triggers my entry order, then retrace to daily high and triggers my stop loss, before bouncing back down again.

Anyway, I've closed the trade #2 that I've posted previously at +10pips. Next week I'll start some backtesting on EURUSD and EURJPY as 2dollardog suggested along with demo trading.
  • #12,798
  • Apr 24, 2018 1:42pm Apr 24, 2018 1:42pm
Quoting iamchico
{quote} No, I mean that I've already seen the market behaving like that (price goes through highest open and triggers my entry order, then retrace to daily high and triggers my stop loss, before bouncing back down again. Anyway, I've closed the trade #2 that I've posted previously at +10pips. Next week I'll start some backtesting on EURUSD and EURJPY as 2dollardog suggested along with demo trading.
I understand that. What I mean is that you should always ask yourself, ''...Is there a common base to this move or is it simply random market movement?'' If you see events like this happening, then it is always wise to check if it is something other than normal market behaviour.
  • #12,799
  • Apr 24, 2018 3:16pm Apr 24, 2018 3:16pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I understand that. What I mean is that you should always ask yourself, ''...Is there a common base to this move or is it simply random market movement?'' If you see events like this happening, then it is always wise to check if it is something other than normal market behaviour.
Oh ok, now I understand. I think backtesting and learning PA better would help me.
  • #12,800
  • Apr 24, 2018 3:21pm Apr 24, 2018 3:21pm
Quoting iamchico
{quote} Oh ok, now I understand. I think backtesting and learning PA better would help me.
Don't waste too much time backtesting. Learning basic PA is a much better use of your time.
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