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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #6,161
  • Edited 10:40am Apr 19, 2018 10:17am | Edited 10:40am
M5 again, missed the upper sell off the open. I was expecting the supply to hit full but rejected right off 1.24.

Bit of a scruffy day but got some pips out of it. Looks like premature exits.
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  • #6,162
  • Apr 19, 2018 10:44am Apr 19, 2018 10:44am
H1 for those who prefer simplicity. 2 zones in 2 days. Both produced more than 4:1 RR trades.

This short side looks like it could run.
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  • #6,163
  • Apr 19, 2018 4:05pm Apr 19, 2018 4:05pm
ETH went to plan.

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Holding an EU short with a TG of 12295. Price has had 2 attempts at the blue box and not tested it yet. (UT = Un-tested)

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  • #6,164
  • Apr 19, 2018 11:56pm Apr 19, 2018 11:56pm
Rainbow chart,anyway,after price hit H4 demand from last week it was up from there and based on monthly chart it should not stop until 109.000ish,first solid target Will see.

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  • #6,165
  • Apr 20, 2018 5:14am Apr 20, 2018 5:14am
Quoting madboy
Rainbow chart,anyway,after price hit H4 demand from last week it was up from there and based on monthly chart it should not stop until 109.000ish,first solid target Will see. {image}
Hi madboy,
is your target always the opposite swing high/low?
  • #6,166
  • Apr 20, 2018 5:27am Apr 20, 2018 5:27am
Most of the times but if the trend is strong i might leave one order for more profit.
  • #6,167
  • Apr 20, 2018 6:28am Apr 20, 2018 6:28am
Quoting madboy
Rainbow chart,anyway,after price hit H4 demand from last week it was up from there and based on monthly chart it should not stop until 109.000ish,first solid target Will see. {image}
Beast mode.

I'm done for this week. Had 3 days off work so got a few bits in between other stuff.
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  • #6,168
  • Apr 20, 2018 9:58am Apr 20, 2018 9:58am
Quoting madboy
Most of the times but if the trend is strong i might leave one order for more profit.
ok thx
  • #6,169
  • Edited 10:25am Apr 20, 2018 10:05am | Edited 10:25am
Couple more scalps for the road. Just a standard trend engulfing setup.

You have to bit more careful with this type of entries. Make sure you're not trading into a zone and the trend is solid.
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  • #6,170
  • Apr 20, 2018 1:42pm Apr 20, 2018 1:42pm
hi c-12 i saw there was nothing behind this trade ? no h4 no m30 then who sold ?

2nd look at this NZDUSD chart, as u can see so much supply levels in big down straight trend , just imagine if u wanna trade what will u do ? wait for pull back to sell ? as market has moved so much so u will wait for buy entries now ? right the movement plz ignore the higher TF , i just want to know how u recognize the PA patterns or shapes ? does these so much supply levels gives u some PA hints ? doesnt care of TF , i am just talking about PA ,
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  • #6,171
  • Apr 20, 2018 1:50pm Apr 20, 2018 1:50pm
c-12 in this kind of market what u suggest to do ? demand and supply levels are to much close to each other , risk reward may not be good , so will u still suggest to trade in this zone or not ? how to trade this kind of PA /market shape
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  • #6,172
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:18pm Apr 20, 2018 2:18pm
Quoting blackforex1
hi c-12 i saw there was nothing behind this trade ? no h4 no m30 then who sold ?
I try to make a guess. When a htf trend has established it's okay to trade pockest of s&d in the direction of the trend. Also he trades the developement of a new zone when the PA is right even before the indicator shows the zone. Supporting reasons probably are a round number and S&R. I don't know what the USDX was doing if it has offered some more reasons because my USDX data feed gets discontinued every now and then what gets on my nerves.
  • #6,173
  • Edited 3:12pm Apr 20, 2018 2:50pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting blackforex1
hi c-12 i saw there was nothing behind this trade ? no h4 no m30 then who sold ? 2nd look at this NZDUSD chart, as u can see so much supply levels in big down straight trend , just imagine if u wanna trade what will u do ? wait for pull back to sell ? as market has moved so much so u will wait for buy entries now ? right the movement plz ignore the higher TF , i just want to know how u recognize the PA patterns or shapes ? does these so much supply levels gives u some PA hints ? doesnt care of TF , i am just talking about PA , {image}
EU - Have a look on Daily, H4, then M30. You have to study these 3 charts until you see it, it was a slam dunk sell setup across all TF's, M5 was just used for some PA to hide a stop behind.. For RR purposes only.

NZDUSD - Those zones above I don't automatically see these as future trades. Sam Seiden would have you studying which is the best level to trade off.. Those zones are from previous entries in my eyes that have since completed. ie - engulfing entries on the way down.

Id have to analyse this over the weekend as not one I normally trade. I'd need to see Weekly, Daily, H4, H1 and M30 and will have a grasp of where price is at. Mid supply zones are only useful in a downtrend. Will take a look.
  • #6,174
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:56pm Apr 20, 2018 2:56pm
Quoting blackforex1
c-12 in this kind of market what u suggest to do ? demand and supply levels are to much close to each other , risk reward may not be good , so will u still suggest to trade in this zone or not ? how to trade this kind of PA /market shape {image}
Well this is a daily chart with fresh bull engulfings plus removing supply zones. It looks good for up. U can drop down to H4 and then either H1 or M30 to find a pullback to get long.

Have a look at Madboy's chart on UJ on how you can do it on this pair. Look at his entries, the zone trades and engulfing entries. He is not picking tops only, notice how to ride a H4 trend on M30.

Atm I'm focusing on EU and DX (probably over 90% screentime) and a bit of GU.
  • #6,175
  • Apr 21, 2018 2:35pm Apr 21, 2018 2:35pm
Quoting blackforex1
2nd look at this NZDUSD chart, as u can see so much supply levels in big down straight trend , just imagine if u wanna trade what will u do ? wait for pull back to sell ? as market has moved so much so u will wait for buy entries now ? right the movement plz ignore the higher TF , i just want to know how u recognize the PA patterns or shapes ? does these so much supply levels gives u some PA hints ? doesnt care of TF , i am just talking about PA , {image}
NZD looks like the best setup has been and gone last week.

Daily supply, H4 PA for short. Very clean classic reversal setup for those trading Kiwi. I have a love / hate relationship with it and not on my radar right now.

It looks like it could run to the downside. We might not get any of those supply zones tested and just keep engulfing south for a while.
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  • #6,176
  • Apr 23, 2018 7:33am Apr 23, 2018 7:33am
so trading plan is 1st watch daily H4 and then enter in m30

while my trading setup was , 1st watch m30 , if any pair is at demand supply then look for H4 and daily


another thing c-12 i back test demand supply with just one TF , and average was 20 SL and 1 TP , so with HTF we can filter those 19 signals ? or we can filter 10 trades and then remaining covers with low risk and higher reward ?
  • #6,177
  • Apr 23, 2018 8:23am Apr 23, 2018 8:23am
at which TF i have to follow Engulf pattern ?

suppose H4 made engulf at supply , then i have to wait for m30 to make supply and engulf ? or when H4 touch supply and M30 if make engulf at that time i have to enter ? if we will wait for engulf to make in H4 zone ? then it would not late for m30 to enter in that same zone ?
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  • #6,178
  • Apr 23, 2018 11:38am Apr 23, 2018 11:38am
Quoting blackforex1
at which TF i have to follow Engulf pattern ? suppose H4 made engulf at supply , then i have to wait for m30 to make supply and engulf ? or when H4 touch supply and M30 if make engulf at that time i have to enter ? if we will wait for engulf to make in H4 zone ? then it would not late for m30 to enter in that same zone ? {image}
Will have some dinner and have a look in a bit.

Closed out some EU shorts from this AM (phone exits) and looks a good place for caution looking at DX.
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  • #6,179
  • Apr 23, 2018 12:05pm Apr 23, 2018 12:05pm
Quoting blackforex1
at which TF i have to follow Engulf pattern ? suppose H4 made engulf at supply , then i have to wait for m30 to make supply and engulf ? or when H4 touch supply and M30 if make engulf at that time i have to enter ? if we will wait for engulf to make in H4 zone ? then it would not late for m30 to enter in that same zone ? {image}
EG has fresh Daily demand established with PA. I wouldn't be looking for shorts here and would skip past this one.

The higher TF directional bias takes charge above all lower timeframe engulfing PA in my view.
  • #6,180
  • Apr 23, 2018 4:37pm Apr 23, 2018 4:37pm
@C-12
How do you use the 200 MA if you use it?
Is it something like above just look for buy signals and below just for short signals or it's there just for visual help?
Cheers
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