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100% bad luck or bad timing?

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 13, 2018 8:26am Mar 13, 2018 8:26am
Last 1 month has been a disaster for me. Dec, Jan were wonderful. Just wanted to share my trade setup and exits which only resulted me in losses or either missed profits.
Let me start with what happened today and I explained about trade setup in screenshots. I should have been in profit if I did what was right, but this is going on EVERY single day since a month. loosing my confidence completely.

This might help other or others help me. but strictly stop criticizing and showing off, no offensive posts. If thats what you want look for other threads please.

REMEMBER, This happened in less than last 24hours. If i post my last 1 month trades, it would be a huge badluck trades thread.
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Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #2
  • Mar 13, 2018 2:29pm Mar 13, 2018 2:29pm
Quoting akash14
Last 1 month has been a disaster for me. Dec, Jan were wonderful. Just wanted to share my trade setup and exits which only resulted me in losses or either missed profits. Let me start with what happened today and I explained about trade setup in screenshots. I should have been in profit if I did what was right, but this is going on EVERY single day since a month. loosing my confidence completely. This might help other or others help me. but strictly stop criticizing and showing off, no offensive posts. If thats what you want look for other...
Hi akash14,
I don't know what your method is but, from your posts, it's evident you don't let your method play out and you are always looking and arbitrarily adjusting. Either you lack genuine confidence in your method or you lack the emotional ability not to impulsively tinker.

If you can cure this you will probably do better and certainly feel a lot better. Work out what is making you act like this and work to correct it. Good luck!
  • #3
  • Mar 13, 2018 3:37pm Mar 13, 2018 3:37pm
Quoting akash14
Last 1 month has been a disaster for me. Dec, Jan were wonderful. Just wanted to share my trade setup and exits which only resulted me in losses or either missed profits. Let me start with what happened today and I explained about trade setup in screenshots. I should have been in profit if I did what was right, but this is going on EVERY single day since a month. loosing my confidence completely. This might help other or others help me. but strictly stop criticizing and showing off, no offensive posts. If thats what you want look for other...
You shouldn’t care about what price does right after it touches your sl or tp.
  • #4
  • Mar 13, 2018 4:51pm Mar 13, 2018 4:51pm
I'm no expert, but here's my two cents anyway:
- It's been a tough month. We are in the middle of a turnaround with the majors, lots of ranging and erratic price behavior. Try to think about how you can identify these market conditions and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
- For the next week, cut out half of your trades. Enter only the ones that you are confident, let the rest go. I suspect you are over trading, and eating losses with the so so ones. It's tough, because the only winning trades are the trades you take.
- Lastly as someone mentioned already.....once a trade is over, forget about it. If it ran for another 200 pips after you closed so be it. If it reversed after stopping you out so be it.
  • #5
  • Mar 15, 2018 1:45am Mar 15, 2018 1:45am
Thanks guys, its been a horrible loosing streak and your words have built some confidence in me to try again. I will consider your suggestions to implement in my trading style. Really appreciate it.
Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #6
  • Mar 15, 2018 2:19am Mar 15, 2018 2:19am
Quoting akash14
Thanks guys, its been a horrible loosing streak and your words have built some confidence in me to try again. I will consider your suggestions to implement in my trading style. Really appreciate it.
Put 1 fast MA in your template for to help you open your trades.

MA = 5 periods,
Method = Smothed,
shift = 3

.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #7
  • Mar 15, 2018 4:24am Mar 15, 2018 4:24am
Quoting palpite
{quote} Put 1 fast MA in your template for to help you open your trades. MA = 5 periods, Method = Smothed, shift = 3 .
Can you please explain how you use the MA to evaluate when to open trades? What are you looking for? Thanks in advance!
  • #8
  • Mar 15, 2018 4:31am Mar 15, 2018 4:31am
Quoting akash14
Last 1 month has been a disaster for me. Dec, Jan were wonderful. Just wanted to share my trade setup and exits which only resulted me in losses or either missed profits. Let me start with what happened today and I explained about trade setup in screenshots. I should have been in profit if I did what was right, but this is going on EVERY single day since a month. loosing my confidence completely. This might help other or others help me. but strictly stop criticizing and showing off, no offensive posts. If thats what you want look for other...
Akash14, thank you for starting this thread. I have felt the same way many times in the past few months. How long have you been trading? I have not been at this nearly as long as others, but I have been doing it long enough to know that I am often my own worst enemy. One of the best pieces of advice I have heard so far is: "Set it and forget it." If the analysis has been done correctly, and the strategy is reliable, there should be little cause for concern other than unexpected volatility swings (but that's what a SL is for!). Discipline and patience are key to success as a trader. Hard to master for some of us () but important to work towards. Good luck!
  • #9
  • Mar 27, 2018 2:05pm Mar 27, 2018 2:05pm
Quoting NotAPro
{quote} Akash14, thank you for starting this thread. I have felt the same way many times in the past few months. How long have you been trading? I have not been at this nearly as long as others, but I have been doing it long enough to know that I am often my own worst enemy. One of the best pieces of advice I have heard so far is: "Set it and forget it." If the analysis has been done correctly, and the strategy is reliable, there should be little cause for concern other than unexpected volatility swings (but that's what a SL is for!). Discipline...
I am trading since 12years and still lack self control in manual trading. see my luck in yesterdays trades. That kind of phase is still running for me since january last week.
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Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #10
  • Mar 27, 2018 2:10pm Mar 27, 2018 2:10pm
Another master piece.
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Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #11
  • Mar 28, 2018 10:34am Mar 28, 2018 10:34am
I recovered by almost what I lost in last 2 trades by selling at the same price on GU sell
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Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #12
  • Apr 22, 2018 10:34am Apr 22, 2018 10:34am
Another sorrowful exit for me missed a ton
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Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #13
  • Apr 22, 2018 10:38am Apr 22, 2018 10:38am
Another sad thing, I was drunk and THOUGHT I placed a buy order on april 19th night and slept. Market retracted and went high again. should i kill myself or quit forex? both wont happen right?
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Believe in your thesis and stick to the plan, don't get scared with moves
  • #14
  • Apr 22, 2018 11:40am Apr 22, 2018 11:40am
Hi akash,

Some thoughts in the hope of helping a bit...

From what I see, you don't have a clear trading system defined, otherwise you wouldn't be hedging your trades and asking yourself, when the trades turned in your favor why did you hedge! I guess that if market had turned against your first trades you would had said "hopefully I hedged!"

Then, you recovered your losses by martingaling and that's not wise money management, that's bet management, if you martingale trade had turned against you, a good part of your account would be gone by now but you were lucky this time, good for you.

So my advice, if you haven't done it yes, write down your trading rules, and respect them, have a plan to enter and exit because having that, you don't need to hedge anymore, then apply some conservative money management like when your balance goes down, adapt, lower your lot size (risk) accordingly and not the contrary...

Well, then, neither kill yourself, nor kit, we all go through times where we trade like shit.

Best of luck
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #15
  • Apr 22, 2018 12:23pm Apr 22, 2018 12:23pm
If you're placing two trades then starting to hedge with double the size just because it's drifting a little bit against you a few hours later... You're chasing profits and trading too big. You either hedge for a smaller size to scalp because you're indecisive or hedge for a larger size because you've realized that you were wrong and have come up with a way to play it to your advantage. You shouldn't be squaring positions because of drift.

Also, what you're doing isn't actually hedging. You have a long way to go.

The answer is bad timing.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #16
  • Apr 22, 2018 1:20pm Apr 22, 2018 1:20pm
Quoting Redeflect
If you're placing two trades then starting to hedge with double the size just because it's drifting a little bit against you a few hours later... You're chasing profits and trading too big. You either hedge for a smaller size to scalp because you're indecisive or hedge for a larger size because you've realized that you were wrong and have come up with a way to play it to your advantage. You shouldn't be squaring positions because of drift. Also, what you're doing isn't actually hedging. You have a long way to go. The answer is bad timing.
Redeflect,

I have been reading your posts... Going without saying you are well versed in varying sub-aspects of trading...

In your current strategy, which sub-aspect of trading(Quant, Technical, Fundamental, Sentimental etc..) is the most emphasis and why?

Thanks
  • #17
  • Apr 22, 2018 1:58pm Apr 22, 2018 1:58pm
Akash,

What is the nature of your winning advantage (your 'edge')?
Why does it work profitably?
What win rate does it typically deliver?

Imho you need to be able to answer these questions, not necessarily publicly, but to your own satisfaction. Knowing the win rate can help you to gauge whether you're merely going through a bad patch, or whether your strategy needs overhauling.

I see from your profile that you're from India. Do you follow cricket? I think a lot of batting truisms, at least as they apply to 5 day test matches, are analogous to trading. For example, batting requires patience and tenacity, you have to wait patiently for the occasional bad ball to arrive, and then execute perfectly to hit it to the boundary. With trading, you need to wait patiently for exactly the right pattern or conditions to occur, and then execute your trade perfectly, and with conviction. With both batting and trading, a lot of success depends upon getting in the right head space, in 'the zone' as it's often described. A batsman sometimes goes through a bad run of low scores, but if he has a proven track record of success behind him, then he knows that he's just been unlucky, and things will eventually come right again (as the saying goes, "form is temporary, but class is permanent"). Trading is similar: if you have a proven strategy, you know that a run of losses is merely a temporary aberration, and that will give you the confidence to know you'll eventually get back on a winning track.

But unless you can answer the three questions that I posed, it's possible that your trading is mere guesswork, in which case you'll likely find it difficult to maintain any kind of long term winning advantage, which will also affect your ability to execute your trades with consistency and conviction.
  • #18
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:22pm Apr 22, 2018 3:22pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Redeflect, I have been reading your posts... Going without saying you are well versed in varying sub-aspects of trading... In your current strategy, which sub-aspect of trading(Quant, Technical, Fundamental, Sentimental etc..) is the most emphasis and why? Thanks
All of the above. I don't have a strategy beyond keeping my eyes on the market and having a positive P&L over time. Everything else that goes into the market can and often does change on a dime. To consider any sub-aspect of trading to be more important than any other is to be an incomplete trader. My only objective is to manage positions in a manner that leads me to pull out more than I put in. To trade effectively you always need to be a few steps ahead of the market but never too many. 20 steps forward but never, ever, take more than 19 steps back. At the end of the day, month, year; that's all that matters.

"It's a marathon not a sprint"... ect.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #19
  • Apr 22, 2018 5:23pm Apr 22, 2018 5:23pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} All of the above. I don't have a strategy beyond keeping my eyes on the market and having a positive P&L over time. Everything else that goes into the market can and often does change on a dime. To consider any sub-aspect of trading to be more important than any other is to be an incomplete trader. My only objective is to manage positions in a manner that leads me to pull out more than I put in. To trade effectively you always need to be a few steps ahead of the market but never too many. 20 steps forward but never, ever, take more than...
Thanks Redeflect for sharing your experience...

"To trade effectively you always need to be a few steps ahead of the market but never too many."

When you get time, Could you give an example of what it means to be too way ahead of the market and why is it detrimental?
  • #20
  • Edited 7:57pm Apr 22, 2018 7:47pm | Edited 7:57pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thanks Redeflect for sharing your experience... "To trade effectively you always need to be a few steps ahead of the market but never too many." When you get time, Could you give an example of what it means to be too way ahead of the market and why is it detrimental?
Sometimes the market never catches up or takes a lot longer than expected to do so. If you're too far ahead of it then it makes it harder to realize when it isn't doing what you want it to do because you take your eyes off the ball. Setting an excessively idealistic TP because it "has to go there" is a prime example. Many things can happen in the time it takes for that TP to be reached and having the expectation that it will get there doesn't actually mean it will. Buying retracements or bounces with the expectation that it will turn very soon when the market is giving no indication that it wants to do so is another. The market does what it does at it's own pace. It can be anticipated but it cannot be predicted. Any time spent waiting for it to catch up is time that's potentially wasted. Anyone that trades futures contracts(I don't) needs to understand very well the risky nature of time as it's intrinsically linked into options pricing in order to trade them effectively.

In the OP's previous post; going to sleep comfortably while expecting the market to do what he wanted is another example of being too far ahead of it.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
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