The Equilibrium, a key to success! | Page 26 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

Harmonic Equilibrium Routing (MPA Based on HFT/ATS) 12 replies

Anyone been to success coach? 7 replies

Mini trading success 14 replies

My first success story...and what could have been a second 0 replies

Attachments: The Equilibrium, a key to success!
Exit Attachments

The Equilibrium, a key to success!

  • #501
  • Apr 12, 2018 4:33am Apr 12, 2018 4:33am
Quoting MichaelSch
I see EUR in range with a smart curve to sink like the titanic. As we look on EURCHF we can spot we a near to recover the hard drop. Hm? Is EURUSD in range as long as we have in EURCHF the mariana trench behind us? Who knows? Better not will know and react more on that what we can see. EURUSD trade longterm again if we have a real direction or we can not without, reduce risk to minimum.
A few days ago i post this and now we see this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unbenannt.png Size: 25 KB


What is EURUSD making?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR1.png Size: 27 KB


Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #502
  • Apr 12, 2018 5:51am Apr 12, 2018 5:51am
Science and practice

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie1.PNG Size: 2.4 MB


Science means to explain what everybody knows so that no one understands it afterwards.

The truth is: science creates knowledge. It's good to know, but the more you know, the more you realize what you do not know yet.

This means that the more I know, the higher my doubts are whether what I know is right.

We all can be glad that science exists, because that benefits the whole world and our economic system. Without science, we would not be where we are today. But no one can say if science always helps us.

Each of us is a researcher and a small scientist, whether he is a doctor, professor, office clerk, worker or unemployed, our lives provide enough science to research.

By that I do not mean quantum physics, space research or medicine, but normal situations like parenting, relationship, communication, love, sex, sport, hobbies and many things of daily life.

Science is not the greatest error of life, but the conclusions we have drawn from it. So the problem is not science but man, because he is wrong.
Of course, a professor can prove his thesis to the student, but only because the student does not know better. But that does not necessarily mean that the professor must be right.

Man has been wrong ever since man exists, that's why science is wrong because it is man-operated.

The old thesis, "The earth is a disk," was also refuted, just as it was believed for 40 years that plants can not absorb solids or liquids through their stomata.

Science is based on possible theories that are either confirmed or refuted. If there were no theories, there would be no basis for discussion to refute them.

Every person who has completed an apprenticeship or a degree course knows it from personal experience. Theory and practice are often two different worlds.

Every person writes in his life a doctoral thesis or a professorship, not on paper but in his head, about things he has dealt with many years. This experience is very special, it is his own science, the experience of his own life.

It is good to know knowing how to correctly apply the fulfillment.

Science does not mean to hoard knowledge, but to pass on knowledge. It does not matter whether the knowledge is 100% correct, but whether one can help someone with it.

In principle, recognized science is nothing other than what most people have agreed on. Until one day you know better, then you have to agree again.

If we deal with the topic of brain research, and read the headline: "Love can be seen in the brain scan", you can only sit back and think: Yes you do. If I'm not sure in the future if I love my partner, I'll do a brain scan.

Science is special, but if it helps me to become really successful is a big challenge.

He was a mathematician and she was unpredictable.

Conclusion:

Science is not bad because there are wrong assumptions, but a good development process to get closer to the truth.

According to my theses, the some reasonable way of trading is to make more profit than loss if I properly implement the doctrine of supply and demand. Now there will be traders who say the opposite and think that equilibrium is just chance.

I find that exciting, because it causes the doubters to my theses to move to refute it. And that is exactly what will help us all, because movement brings us forward. As simple as that.

Science creates knowledge, we use the basics to build on it to advance our own knowledge in order to succeed.

And something else:

The term "self-confidence" puts it in a nutshell: I have to be aware that it is up to me. Only then am I in a position to change anything.

I wish you much success
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #503
  • Apr 14, 2018 9:40am Apr 14, 2018 9:40am
Have you already tried the Renko to find potential zones?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 40 KB
  • #504
  • Apr 15, 2018 3:31am Apr 15, 2018 3:31am
Quoting amenocy
Have you already tried the Renko to find potential zones? {image}
Nice. I locate my zones for intraday after watching sharp reaction on M30, say get engulfings or other candle patterns. Often we have hit a zone like pivot(actual or from the past day), s&r or others. I switch to M5 and watch what makes price here (also candle patterns that confirm direction?). If yes, i go to M1 searching for a entry like this picture discribe it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Marktstruktur.png Size: 233 KB


If you have trouble to locate things you can help out with two moving averages (say SMA 50 and SMA 21) as discribed behaviour in the picture.

Good if you can spot someting like this before the trade goes on the way.

Attached Image
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #505
  • Apr 15, 2018 3:35pm Apr 15, 2018 3:35pm
Quoting amenocy
Have you already tried the Renko to find potential zones? {image}

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie1.PNG Size: 120 KB




Hello dear amenocy,

First of all, welcome to our blog and thank you very much for the very important question, which will certainly interest many traders who have dealt with the Equilibrium a bit.I would like to answer something in more detail.

For many years I have tried different types of Renko strategy and Heikin Ashi indicators and compared them with different bar charts. The result has unfortunately not brought me the hoped-for successes.

Let's take a closer look at the Renko chart. Basically, it should be noted that anyone who follows gullible technical indicators without understanding the trend dynamics is almost certainly doomed to failure in trading. This speaks against conventional indicators. The idea for Renko: It is about the visual representation of the true trend and to filter out fluctuations that could lead a trader in this trend following astray. Renko charts are not a basic recipe for success; you may be able to increase the chance of trading success with an additional strategy.

Due to their design, the Renko charts often do not match the original chart. Thus, different highs or lows can be achieved. However, sometimes trend patterns are more easily recognized. Determining the size of the renko, ie the minimum spread of the price movement, is a major challenge for which there is no standard rule. The choice of the minimum range depends on the volatility of the respective price.

This is where the first hurdle begins for me. I need an ATR. Since my optimal chart setting is now dependent on an indicator, another uncertainty has been added. Which ATR now reliably displays the values that I need exactly to represent my Renkochart optimally?

The normal chart (5M, 15M, 1H) may look a bit illogical for beginners, but it does show the unvarnished truth. For a normal chart I do not need an ATR because I see the volatility immediately. This makes my normal chart image independent of any other indicator.

Since the Renko is time-independent, it is difficult to detect strong price increases or price drops. Likewise, an Equilibrium is harder to identify.
These features make it difficult to identify a potential supply market or demand market.

The idea of working with Renko is initially tempting, I gave it up quickly because the pure price chart reflects the optimal translation of the market.
The price history is just up or down and a bit of a mess in the beginning. Just like a new language. But the longer you deal with it, the clearer it gets. So it's just a matter of time.

The situation is similar with Heikin Ashi. At first glance, it looks like a help, but you can derive few decisive equilibrium from it. Likewise, I can only advise against using one or more MA's from my own experience. The price does not matter if two MAs cross each other or not. In the future, therefore, he will not do what the cruising MAs predict. Indicators always follow the price. Therefore, one should pay the greatest attention to the pure price trend.

That's my personal opinion though. The fact that I have been able to live well from my Equlibrium strategy for many years should not be the decisive criterion for dealing more with supply and demand in the future. However, it should be a suggestion that this strategy could succeed if one can identify with this type of action. You can never tell a trader how to do business, he is always responsible. Here at FF there are many very good traders from whom you can learn a lot. But there are also many who have no success and confuse other traders by their recommendations or give you information that may bring very high losses. My tip: A good gut feeling is crucial which information is good and which information is bad. I wish you that you will always be able to make your best decisions from the many different pieces of information.

Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #506
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:48am Apr 16, 2018 12:48am
I truly appreciate your help

I converted Momentum Candles indicator to ATR based indicator.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Momentum Candles_ATR v1.02.mq4   2 KB | 589 downloads
  • #507
  • Apr 16, 2018 6:20am Apr 16, 2018 6:20am
Quoting amenocy
I truly appreciate your help I converted Momentum Candles indicator to ATR based indicator. {file}
Hello amenocy,

I'm glad if the information helps you. If you are looking for the optimal trading style, you get a thousand different pieces of information. Your question has brought me to a new idea for an important contribution. "How can I easily get information that really helps me?" I will work on it and hope to post a contribution by the end of the week. Thanks again.

Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #508
  • Edited 12:31pm Apr 17, 2018 12:16pm | Edited 12:31pm
What information is important?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie1.PNG Size: 1.9 MB


Hello dear traders,

FF has some 1,000 different trading themes. There are over 65,000 threads with 6,900,000 answers in 9 forums. Assuming that each answer contains only 100 words, that would total 6,900,000,000 words.

One reader manages about 200 words per minute.
To completely read through FF you would need almost 7 years without a break. (69,000 books)

Of nearly 500,000 members, approximately 50,000 members have published threads.
If I know what I'm looking for, I can get possible answers through my search.
So to improve your knowledge, finding keywords is the optimal alternative.

But what if I do not know what I'm looking for?
If I'm looking for new interesting knowledge how do I go about it?
In principle, I have only two options: searching for posts or searching through the members.

65,000 contributions face 50,000 members.
So I concentrate clearly on the members.

Members who publish regular contributions and communicate with other members are so-called impact members. They are marked with a rhombus.

Red = High Impact Member = Top 2% about 620 members

Orange = Medium Impact Member = Top 5% about 930 members

Yellow = Low Impact Member = Top 10% Top about 1,550 members

With that I can reduce my choice to 3,000 members. This does not mean that the other members do not post well, it just means that they do not regularly post information. Let's just stay with these 3,000 members for the sake of simplicity. There is interesting information about these members that makes it easy for a new reader to find the best.

For this we scroll down the main page of FF and click on Members. Then let's take a look at the member list.
There we get the following information:

Joined: month year
Buddies: number
Subscribers: number
Post: number
Last Online: Date
Trading from: Country

Now let's take 3 members who have different values. (we do not consider the country)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie2.PNG Size: 67 KB


At first glance it looks like Trader A has the most experience as he has posted the most threads, most subscribers follow him and he is the longest in the process. After that Trader B comes and at the end Trader C.

Now let's have a closer look at the activity of the individual traders.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie3.PNG Size: 44 KB


We realize that the picture is completely changed now. Trader C has 6.97 subscribers per month while Trader A only has 4.68 subscribers per month. Trader A has sold almost twice as many posts as Trader A. (buddies and subscribers were added together)

Subscribers per month are a representative feature because people often only follow interesting topics that help them.
This proves that even new members post interesting topics that are often accepted by other traders.

A picture is worth a thousand words. Make sure that a post with examples and pictures conveys more information than just plain text.
Notice how the writer of a thread deals with its subscribers, how it criticizes, whether it makes fun of others and how it helps people.

An interesting feature is also the Ignored list. Sure, there are sometimes people who are annoying and you just have to lock. But if someone has 50 subscribers and has 25 on the ignored list, it might not just be the other one. This often has something to do with respect and interaction.

There are always exceptions, but the subscribers already have a reason why they follow certain people or not.
These factors do not guarantee that a trader will succeed or post topics that really help. But there are little hints if it pays to look closer.

With this little help, I can ever separate the wheat from the chaff and quickly recognize whether a second look worthwhile.
Take a distance from things that do not help you, meaningless discussions about topics that no one needs, you can find everywhere. Get involved and look for the topics and traders that communicate their strategy in an understandable way.

Unfortunately, it is often about vanities. But I think that most of us are able to distinguish between good and less good.

I think if you post here at FF already posts, you should either do it with passion or let it be better. The profession of the trader is simply too demanding for that. Every day we compete against the best traders in the world, and you need special qualities that are not taught at any university. Being a trader is something very special. You can be proud of that.

Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #509
  • Apr 18, 2018 8:01am Apr 18, 2018 8:01am
Hello dear traders,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bild1.png Size: 234 KB


At the moment we have an interesting situation in EURUSD. Still, you can see a nice equilibrium. It seems the course is heading north. However, at the latest then the 1.253 would be the maximum goal. There the supply dominates the demand. When returning to my drawn green line, there should then be a decision. Either a strong breakthrough through the green line or the green line acts as a strong resistance and makes the course bounce off. In the latter case, the 1.28 could be another target. When breakthrough through the green line, the pullback must first accept this as resistance. After that, the 1.19 could come back into focus. So we are still in the range. That should hopefully change soon.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #510
  • Apr 18, 2018 1:40pm Apr 18, 2018 1:40pm
A few days later we see this ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unbenannt.png Size: 23 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR1.png Size: 25 KB


In short we get the answer for EURUSD i think ...
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #511
  • Apr 19, 2018 10:16am Apr 19, 2018 10:16am
Sometimes it's very hard to find the exact equilibrium point, especially when the market starts to behave how you wasn't expecting. In those cases I always recommend to give up trading, at least for a few hours, and it always helps.
  • #512
  • Apr 20, 2018 12:52pm Apr 20, 2018 12:52pm
Quoting billtrade
Sometimes it's very hard to find the exact equilibrium point, especially when the market starts to behave how you wasn't expecting. In those cases I always recommend to give up trading, at least for a few hours, and it always helps.

Hello Billtrade,

Thank you for your contribution and welcome toour blog. I totally agree with you and can only confirm you in your opinion.

Equilibrium and the resulting determination of support zones and resistance zones is indeed a major challenge. The longer you work with this strategy, the clearer the structures become. Equilibrium does not always have an impact on the change in the price, so I particularly look at the dominance of supply and demand. Certain price levels are frequently frequented and addressed, which can be more clearly located with the help of the Equilibrium, supply and demand.

Currency strength, candle strength and trend strength are other key points to keep in mind. As you've already aptly said, there are days where you do not have a clear view, even though you've had experience for many years and trade with a system that is completely independent of the standard indicators such as RSI, MACD, MA, Momentum, Bollinger, Fibonacci and many more.

If you act according to the principle of equilibrium, supply and demand, you have to be patient. The big advantage is that you can wait until the market comes to you to sell your trade in peace.

So not like a tiger who runs after his prey, but how the spider in its web waits in peace until the prey comes.Then you can still decide whether you want the loot or not.

This requires that you only trade when the opportunities risk ratio is right. And that's exactly what you can calculate very well in this strategy. Another advantage is the small stops and thus a very low risk in relation to the profit.
So we only trade when it's worth it and when there's no good earnings outlook within reach, you can still switch to other strong currency pairs or just enjoy the nice day. That is sometimes better than having to act in hell.

I wish you a nice day
best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #513
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:13pm Apr 20, 2018 2:13pm
Thank you very much!!!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie1.PNG Size: 1.4 MB



Hello dear Subscribers and Buddies,

Today I just want to turn to you. First, I would like to thank you once.

Thanks for that ....
... you exchange with me.

Thanks for….
... the great suggestions and the crazy great ideas.

Thanks for….
... interesting posts and opinions.

Thanks for….
... a polite and fair togetherness

Thanks for that ....
... you followed me and subscribed to me.

I created this blog to let people share in my experiences that I have gathered over the years and, of course, to learn.
If you look closely at the Equilibrium blog, a key to success, you will find that we are dealing with many different and interesting issues around trading. Supply and demand as well as the Equilibrium will always remain the focus of this blog, but as a blog writer I would like to offer you from time to time special topics. If you have specific wishes, let me know. Thirty years ago, I ordered my first shares over the phone over the bank, so I already have some life experience, which I like to make available.

In return, I am pleased that we continue to treat each other fairly, honestly and collegially. It does not matter if you are a beginner or a professional.
There are beginners who are already acting like professionals and there are professionals who still act like beginners.
There is no good and no bad, there is no right and no wrong. Every dealer always determines this for himself.

Even though I have had experience for many years, you will find that I do not boast of how much money I earn. I can live on trades and feed my family, that's more than I ever dreamed. When trading you will not get rich quick, but gradually more successful. Anyone who claims otherwise is either dishonest or a player. And my trading style has nothing to do with games.

I would be happy if we learn a lot from each other in the next few years and become more successful step by step.
I have often been asked if I do not want to market my experiences for a lot of money, my answer has always been the same.
I earn my money trading because it is my main profession, which I see with passion and respect every day as a great challenge and can carry on into old age.
It is a very special profession that makes you independent of many things in everyday life. You do not believe how many people in my acquaintance and friends envy me for this independence.

Maybe I can help you enjoy this independence someday, I would be very happy about it.
I wish you to have the success you desire, when you are ready to go the right way. I can accompany you a little along this path, but you take the first step.

Greetings and once again THANKS


Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #514
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:13pm Apr 20, 2018 2:13pm
Quoting Bionics
{quote} Dear Vee, Many thanks for your high quality feedback. You realize that you are very deeply involved in the topic and have invaluable knowledge in this area. 20 years ago I bought my first shares through Deutsche Bank, from then on I was fascinated by the stock market. Linked to this, the probability calculus was a central life companion for me. I am only dealing with the forex topic for a few years, but the similarities to the stock trading are not so far away. The currencies are a central issue for me, because as Kostolany said so nicely:...
Hi Michael, thanks for sharing this.
This post remind me many years ago a stock trader tell me about "reverse to the mean" more or less is about how market will go back to the equilibrium, but not sure how the system works..
I hope i can learn more about how you trade, and i do agree we can make this thread as positive one, but i'm sure soon or later haters will come here, heheh be ready.

Green pips for you..
  • #515
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:47pm Apr 20, 2018 2:47pm
Michael, your posts are well appreciated here. Thanks for the blog and for the selfless energy with which carry everyone along in detailing the unique way you see the forex market. Have a great weekend ahead.
Fred
  • #516
  • Apr 21, 2018 8:15am Apr 21, 2018 8:15am
Hallo Michael,herzlichen dank für deine Beiträge.
Ich lese sie sehr aufmerksam und versuche vieles in mein Trading einzubauen. Wenn es mir auch noch oft schwer fällt zu warten bis meine Chance gekommen ist.
Klaus
  • #517
  • Apr 21, 2018 11:19am Apr 21, 2018 11:19am
This is a great string, although I will admit, I'm still reading; started at page one and working myself through. I can verify much of what I've read. I've been trading for 14 years, yes, 14. And after you've stared at charts, EVERYDAY, for hours for 14 years, you do pick up patterns. I am looking at the forex market much like what has been said here although I've developed my own terminology.
Today, I can say, with exhaustion, my trades are more profitable than not, but doesn't mean I'm a good trader; still working on it, which is what attracted me to this string.

I would like to ask a question to all of you because I am struggling to meet my goals. Do you consider yourselves hobbiest? Professionals? Successful?
My goal is to become a private professional trader, whatever that means and here I am, not knowing my next direction. My questions may be away from this topic and if so, I appreciate keeping this blog clean, so if you can direct me to a different conversation, website, etc. I've not be able to find the answers to my questions and I'm getting desparate.

I've read comments about 'make it a business'. Is that a mindset or a physical requirement? Do we all need to be keeping books? Our brokers keep tract of p/l.
I don't know my next step.
  • #518
  • Apr 21, 2018 3:31pm Apr 21, 2018 3:31pm
Hello dear friends,

First of all thanks for all the comments and answers, I will write you a personal answer as soon as possible. First of all, a nice weekend.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #519
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:43am Apr 22, 2018 3:43am
usdcad weekly
Greetings Bionics, Great Thread and thanks for sharing. 1 example USDCAD care to elaborate your feedback from the chart attached tq
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC WEEKLY.PNG Size: 48 KB
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #520
  • Apr 22, 2018 8:07am Apr 22, 2018 8:07am
Quoting phoenix777
{quote} Hi Michael, thanks for sharing this. This post remind me many years ago a stock trader tell me about "reverse to the mean" more or less is about how market will go back to the equilibrium, but not sure how the system works.. I hope i can learn more about how you trade, and i do agree we can make this thread as positive one, but i'm sure soon or later haters will come here, heheh be ready. Green pips for you..

Hello phoenix777,

Thank you very much for your kind words and I can only agree with your statement about the Equilibrium. Over the past 20 years, many millions of traders around the world have tried to spot a system in the price history and have not got any further. There is no logical system that always works. This can be seen on most EA's. At certain stages, they make high profits, but fail as soon as the situation reverses.

The goal in trading is to optimize the probability of the trader in his favor. In the many years of my work, I have tried and analyzed hundreds of systems. I did not get any further. So I compared these systems one day. I found the equilibrium with supply and demand as my optimal way to success.

Let us assume that sooner or later critics or haters will come to this page. Here we have to distinguish first. Criticism is always an aid to getting better, and for that I am even grateful if the criticism is constructive and not offensive.

Haters try to destroy, but you can only destroy something that is not fixed in itself. My statements are based on experience, but I have no claim to be correct. There are many ways to succeed. Take the water as a model. It seeks its way where it is easy. Obstacles are enveloped, even if it means a change of direction. What happens over time can be seen in natural wonders like the Niagara Falls or the Grand Canyon.

The path of least resistance is easy but not always easy. Sometimes a detour is required because obstacles block progress. In this way you will discover more and more how to do it easily. They recognize where courage is needed to break new ground.

I do not call my path the only right one. Any trader entering the market has his authority and I would never discuss with him whether his path is right or wrong. After all, it's his own money and he can do whatever he wants with it.

Likewise, I would never make fun of a trader in FF or drag him over. Every human being is unique and everyone is right in his world.
Of course someone can say that my trading style is moronic and you can not succeed. This claim may even be true, as the trader has tried my system and can not cope with it. The correct statement should now read: The trading system with supply and demand is not suitable for me. I can not handle it.
That's not bad. That's why the trader is not stupid or not a good trader. The strategy does not fit. However, that's still no proof that this system is not working. It just does not work for him. That's all.

What is changing now? Nothing at all, because I will continue to act with my system as before.
The nice thing about FF is that if you do not like something, you can still look for something that you like better and what you feel comfortable with. For the information here you do not have to pay anything you just have to decide if this information help you or not. And if it does not help me, I'll just keep looking. For each pot there is a matching lid, which is not always easy to find.

I'm glad if you want to learn more about supply and demand and recommend that you work through the blog from the beginning. There you will find many examples and suggestions about various topics of action. The focus is always on the Equilibrium, but also some important side issues are treated. See FF like a buffet, look at what's so delicious and then decide what's on your plate. I'm sure you might not like everything, especially if you try something new, but you'll be well fed.
I sincerely wish you continued success and many thanks for your approval of the Equilibrium.

Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
2 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
Haifisch