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Bank Currency Strength

  • #201
  • Apr 17, 2018 12:39pm Apr 17, 2018 12:39pm
Quoting ZyzzAlba
{quote} Hi zeramlakireg, Could you expand further please on what your process is - impressive results so far on your end.
Hi Zy,

Please understand that this is only my test. There was no technical analysis done on entries or exits. Doing this, account will likely get into drawdown. Maybe this account just got lucky it started on good market movements.

There is a summary of currency strength in the bank position indicator. That is where I base my basket for the week. I am still developing my entries and exit. I cannot be certain that what I am doing is profitable since it's only been one week. But to give you a rough idea:

1. I look at the summary in the Bank position indi.
2. I look for the top 2 strongest and bottom 2 weakest. Possibly top 3 or bottom 3, depending on the strength. By strength, I mean the number beside the currency. Example:
Top 3 = GBP 3, USD 2, CHF 2
Btm 2 = JPY -2, NZD -2
3. I will then pair those currencies and group them into BUY and SELL groups. So, from the list:
BUY group:
GBPJPY, GBPNZD, USDJPY, CHFJPY
SELL group:
NZDUSD, NZDCHF
4. I simply open these positions. No technical analysis whatsoever.
5. Exit when the currency strengths have changed. Also no TA whatsoever.

Hope this helps.

Cheers
  • #202
  • Apr 17, 2018 12:55pm Apr 17, 2018 12:55pm
Thanks bud; much more clearer now - I figured it would be sentinment trading but wasn’t sure - Will watch over the next few days/weeks.

Good luck!
  • #203
  • Apr 17, 2018 7:09pm Apr 17, 2018 7:09pm
Well i wouldn't buy a monthly subscription on that advice..

Top 3 = GBP 3, USD 2, CHF 2
Btm 2 = JPY -2, NZD -2

I'll see how some of these play out through the week. Best bet is the GBP.

One thing comes to mind. What rhymes with Bankers and starts with the letter W?
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #204
  • Apr 17, 2018 10:51pm Apr 17, 2018 10:51pm
Quoting neilgroom
Well i wouldn't buy a monthly subscription on that advice.. Top 3 = GBP 3, USD 2, CHF 2 Btm 2 = JPY -2, NZD -2 I'll see how some of these play out through the week. Best bet is the GBP. One thing comes to mind. What rhymes with Bankers and starts with the letter W?
Bank positions changed mate.

Top 3 now:
GBP = 6
CAD = 2
USD = 2

Bottom now:
CHF = -2
NZD = -5

I agree, you should observe for yourself, and judge if you want to subscribe. But how will you fully judge it if you will not make even a month of subscription?

Cheers

P.S. Bank positions may change midweek
  • #205
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:19pm Apr 17, 2018 11:19pm
Quoting zeramlakireg
{quote} Bank positions changed mate. Top 3 now: GBP = 6 CAD = 2 USD = 2 Bottom now: CHF = -2 NZD = -5 I agree, you should observe for yourself, and judge if you want to subscribe. But how will you fully judge it if you will not make even a month of subscription? Cheers P.S. Bank positions may change midweek
How often do they update this list? Do they send alerts to you when the list has changed? Did you subscribe to the volume information also? I was wondering if both were required to make the most of this strategy?
  • #206
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:33pm Apr 17, 2018 11:33pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} How often do they update this list? Do they send alerts to you when the list has changed? Did you subscribe to the volume information also? I was wondering if both were required to make the most of this strategy?
I cannot accurately answer your question since I'm still one week into the subscription. But last week's bank positions were changed this Tuesday.

You can run the bank position indi in your VPS to alert you if there is any change.

I use the bank position indi for basket trading and position trades, as described by JayRai.

Some members use the volume indi for scalping.

I suggest you read the whole thread. It's only 11 pages.

Cheers
  • #207
  • Apr 18, 2018 4:47pm Apr 18, 2018 4:47pm
Top 3 now:
GBP = 6

Oh dear..... GBP took a great hit today. Weakest currency today.. If these are bank positions then I'm beginning to wonder.

No way is that site real bank positions. No way will they give information like this.......

I hope you have success with it and I might be wrong but I am staying well away.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #208
  • Apr 18, 2018 5:30pm Apr 18, 2018 5:30pm
The pound has had a great run lately but according to the bank position website the banks where buying or placing pending orders for some pound pairs.

Here is the result of the pound today - 24 hour percent rise/fall. It did start well but then boom.. What a drop.

Is the site real? Is it just based on the current currency strength? Are the taking you in for a monthly fee?
Attached Image
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #209
  • Apr 18, 2018 10:01pm Apr 18, 2018 10:01pm
Quoting neilgroom
Top 3 now: GBP = 6 Oh dear..... GBP took a great hit today. Weakest currency today.. If these are bank positions then I'm beginning to wonder. No way is that site real bank positions. No way will they give information like this....... I hope you have success with it and I might be wrong but I am staying well away.
I hope you succeed as well. Green pips to you.

Cheers
  • #210
  • Apr 19, 2018 6:33am Apr 19, 2018 6:33am
Quoting neilgroom
Top 3 now: GBP = 6 Oh dear..... GBP took a great hit today. Weakest currency today.. If these are bank positions then I'm beginning to wonder. No way is that site real bank positions. No way will they give information like this....... I hope you have success with it and I might be wrong but I am staying well away.
GBP pair almost returns back to the level before the fall yesterday.
The fall is a great entry opportunity to enter if you're looking at M30/H1/H4 TF
GBP is +4 str... so the trend may continue for a while

BTW
USD is strong as well. So if USD drops after news today, it maybe an opportunity to enter call on USD pairs
  • #211
  • Apr 20, 2018 5:50am Apr 20, 2018 5:50am
Hi all,

I see some mixed reactions how to "read" currency strength from bank positions.
The way i use it, is not on a blindly manner.
If GBP is stated strong, that doesn't mean i jump right in against all other currencies.
As i explained in the beginning, i seek opportunities with those currencies that are considered strong and weak.
If banks are still holding their positions, even when the GBP got a fundamental hit, i enter at bargain confluence zones.
Some interpret it as a pull back. And if the currency still goes against a trade, i didn't bought it in expensive confluence zones.
Please do understand that banks aren't always right! If that was the case, well... don't need to explain that.

Further, i like to keep an eye on every service that i use.
It is vital and in fully interest of my own capital that it is legit and stays that way.
Therefor i constantly compare data feed as much as i can.
When something is off, i get away. Simple as that.
The bank positions indicator updates every hour as i got answered a while ago.
That means whenever a position got added or removed, it adjust the currency strength.

Regarding the GBP... is saw that as an opportunity, like zeramlakireg posted, against the NZD.
Hereby a screenshot of that opportunity i saw:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDM15.png Size: 45 KB


It isn't the perfect setup but i was convinced.
Hopefully this gives some perspective to some questions/situations.
  • #212
  • Apr 20, 2018 6:38am Apr 20, 2018 6:38am
Quoting JayRai
Hi all, I see some mixed reactions how to "read" currency strength from bank positions. The way i use it, is not on a blindly manner. If GBP is stated strong, that doesn't mean i jump right in against all other currencies. As i explained in the beginning, i seek opportunities with those currencies that are considered strong and weak. If banks are still holding their positions, even when the GBP got a fundamental hit, i enter at bargain confluence zones. Some interpret it as a pull back. And if the currency still goes against a trade, i didn't bought...
Thanks Jay Rai for the explanation...

You mentioned, "Further, i like to keep an eye on every service that i use."

Could you please mention the other services that you use.

I tried looking/googling for services similar to Bankersfx, so far found only efxplus.com . Even efxplus.com doesn't explicitly mention that the data they have is real bank positions, but it is worded something like Insights derived from Quant Models, Research...

I mean there is nothing to compare bankersfx with to verify the accuracy of the data...

Please do share the info as it will clarify the situation...

Thanks
  • #213
  • Apr 20, 2018 8:26am Apr 20, 2018 8:26am
Hi Jay Rai

It looks like a solid approach to me.

I have been studying the data most of the week and there have been some good opportinities, although I usually exit way to soon.

I am currently in a sell position on EurGbp at a level where 2 other banks are selling and the buying volume had dropped below the line.
I would love to hear your thought on this.

Martin
  • #214
  • Apr 20, 2018 9:40am Apr 20, 2018 9:40am
Quoting JayRai
Hi all, I see some mixed reactions how to "read" currency strength from bank positions. The way i use it, is not on a blindly manner. If GBP is stated strong, that doesn't mean i jump right in against all other currencies. As i explained in the beginning, i seek opportunities with those currencies that are considered strong and weak. If banks are still holding their positions, even when the GBP got a fundamental hit, i enter at bargain confluence zones. Some interpret it as a pull back. And if the currency still goes against a trade, i didn't bought...
Hi JayRai!

Glad to have you back here! Again, I would like to express my gratitude to you for sharing your method.

I'm using your approach for my position trades and it's doing pretty well. Heck, I've covered the next month's subscription fees and some more profits in my live account!

My TE is just a little test to have a "feel" of how reliable bankersfx currency strength is and boy does it perform well! I think the odds of a newbie choosing a basket of pairs, opening it simultaneously without any TA, and making more than a thousand pips, with a win rate of more than 70% in less than 2 weeks is close to zero.

I hope my little TE has vindicated you from the naysayers.

Cheers
  • #215
  • Apr 20, 2018 11:45am Apr 20, 2018 11:45am
Great work there Zeramakireg

Are you trading with JaiRai's rules like in the picture and where do you get out of a losing trade?

Martin

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1523095899
  • #216
  • Apr 20, 2018 1:54pm Apr 20, 2018 1:54pm
Quoting ukmartin
Great work there Zeramakireg Are you trading with JaiRai's rules like in the picture and where do you get out of a losing trade? Martin {image}
Hi Martin,

I follow JayRai's rules for trading H4 charts (position trades). I don't do scalping as I don't have much screen time due to my job.

Others do scalping I think. Somebody might share their method. I'm also interested in learning it.

My TE is blindly following the signal from the bank positions indi to test it. Adding position when in DD in S/R areas.

Cheers
  • #217
  • Apr 20, 2018 3:56pm Apr 20, 2018 3:56pm
Hi, I know i've been a bit negative about it as the GBP is still falling.. Damn currency.

Is it possible to update us on the current readings for the GBP.

The USD has had a few good days. Is it still at two?

Neil
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #218
  • Apr 21, 2018 11:12am Apr 21, 2018 11:12am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Thanks Jay Rai for the explanation... You mentioned, "Further, i like to keep an eye on every service that i use." Could you please mention the other services that you use. I tried looking/googling for services similar to Bankersfx, so far found only efxplus.com . Even efxplus.com doesn't explicitly mention that the data they have is real bank positions, but it is worded something like Insights derived from Quant Models, Research... I mean there is nothing to compare bankersfx with to verify the accuracy of the data... Please do share the...
For those inerested in the various data sources, here is my experience. I subscribed to efxplus for 1 year and also to the FXWW chat for a few months. On the FXWW chat you get the original publications from banks, like morgan stanley FX pulse, which someone shared earlier here I think. So I compared both and it was basically the same just in a better way of presentation so that you don't have to read all those papers yourself. Therefore, I think both efxplus and bankersFX show the correct (published) positions.
But it might be that those published positions do not necessarily mean that the bank is actually trading big volume on those trade ideas. They might just be published to give their clients something interesting to read.

Also, there are a lot of technical positions, some banks publish more technical positions like credit suisse, some like morgan stanley more fundamental. overall at efxplus you can also see the historical performance, which can also be shown separately for fundamental/technical trades (they always give the trade reason not only the actual position). Morgan stanley had the best performance when I ended my subscription and overall fundamental trades where much better than technical ( those were mostly break even taken all together for 5 years).

A negative point of bankersFX is that you can't filter for only fundamentally motivated trades, which in my view would be better to justify a general trend bias.

I ended my subscribtion to efxnews after following all bank trades automatically in 2017 because starting from 2017 the bank positions were mostly break even, maybe because of trump, maybe because too many retailers get access to those positions, maybe it was just a difficult year for fundamentals.
  • #219
  • Apr 21, 2018 10:44pm Apr 21, 2018 10:44pm
Quoting neilgroom
Hi, I know i've been a bit negative about it as the GBP is still falling.. Damn currency. Is it possible to update us on the current readings for the GBP. The USD has had a few good days. Is it still at two? Neil
we are expecting GBP to fall in short while as indicated by currency strength, GBP actually decreased it strength since wed/thurs.
USD is growing strong since thursday asian session and i have told you guys in previous post to consider buying USD before thursday NY open
you would have bag in 500 pips+ together for all USD pairs, especially GBPUSD
Attached Image
  • #220
  • Apr 22, 2018 4:33am Apr 22, 2018 4:33am
Quoting cornulala
{quote} For those inerested in the various data sources, here is my experience. I subscribed to efxplus for 1 year and also to the FXWW chat for a few months. On the FXWW chat you get the original publications from banks, like morgan stanley FX pulse, which someone shared earlier here I think. So I compared both and it was basically the same just in a better way of presentation so that you don't have to read all those papers yourself. Therefore, I think both efxplus and bankersFX show the correct (published) positions. But it might be that those...
Thanks Cornulala for comprehensively sharing your experience...

One follow up question, On FXWW Chat, how often do banks publish their positions?

In your experience, what is the reason for banks to share the positions publicly, shouldn't doing this affect the profitability? I mean, i can understand if they restrict the publications to their institutional investors, but why to the general public as well?

Thanks
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