London session market profile preps and journal for DAX

Eustoxx50 broke out decisively.
The DAX is going to break very soon. Pretending a double top to draw in weak shorts and then squeeze them is the game here.

Or false break out eurostoxx?

Dax last pocket filled in voor structure from tuesday?

anyone thinking of trading the spread between the dax and EUSTXX50?

We could go down 200 from here on dax today
Week profit target not reached
Likes to do reverse dan

What I have missed!
A precise rejection in DAX at the prior day's VAH 12597.5 around 12:30.
I was already away 10 min over 12:00. Too hungry to stay on.

I just can't believe they do this kind of move when I was away. Maybe I have to instead eat in front of my table next week.
Well, from this reaction, it seems that the market is still in the day time frame player's hands, which is to say, market maker in control.
Take mean reversion trades. Don't expect big break out from either side, except long liquidation hits later in the day.

What is the advantage to trade this spread?

imho, there were 300 eruo profit potential, not too risky, exploiting mean reversion by two almost equal assetts


... I am not familiar with uploading files here, I hope the chart will show up.

sorry,
makes no sense to me

No problem i said could, dax plays complex games
It was the Dow in the end that dropped 200 haha

The chart shows high to low off the week
Target is normally 127 line
It failed to go there and came back in range
What sometimes happens then is draw the reverse as in chart below and goes to 127 on the other side
Can also happen on daily chart

I have to say, it starts to make sense to me.
Because they are highly correlation, you could execute a pair trading strategy on these two.

I am late to the party today due to lots of technical issues of my charts.
Missed a lot of good trades.

First let's take a look at the TPO chart. The profile is telling me that the DAX is bearish.
There were two consecutive days of value overlapping to the down side. If it were to be a bull flag, the third day would have to break out to the upside. But the third day it has broken the value area to the down side in the first hour of trading. This is saying to me long liquidation instead of merely a market maker stop run.

Luckily a big higher time frame buyer stepped in at 12480 holding the market up. But this does not translate into a bullish development because the pullback stalled right at last Friday's VAL at 12535. Before 12535 being taken out, more long liquidation is likely.

During the weekend, I was thinking over Brixen's approach.
He has quite some consistency in trading DAX and got quite some following in the community.
But i think it is dangerous to emulate his strategy and way of thinking without understanding your own psychological make up.
The edge of his approach lies on the fact he has the level of confidence and mental fortitude so that he is able to work out his long biased "buying the dip" strategy by sitting in the market and eating a lot of volatility. If you don't have the mental fortitude or deep pocket to do that, it is very dangerous to copy what he is doing.

By looking at my strategy. I tried very hard to limit the time exposure of my position because the risk is proportional to the square root of the time. When time in the market is small, the unit risk is small, and I am able to trade bigger positions. Hence the edge comes from taking relatively big bets on key locations based a dynamic directional bias. To some, my strategy might sounds like a flip flop and I don't trade a lot. Simply because I don't need a lot of trades to generate the return. All i need is to scale up in a couple of reliable setups and sit on my hands for the rest of the session.

By understanding this, I am able to let myself relax and do what I am supposed to do. I don't have to get in a position just because I saw other people are trading actively in and out.

Cac had a bullish response from last Friday's value low and VPOC.
Today we are still seeing a divergence between the Cac and dax.
Cac has been bullish throughout the last week.

To me the most reliable trades are those traded from a key TPO locations.

For example, there is a 10 points reaction at last Tuesday's naked VPOC @12494 when the market was heavily sold.
If you size your position properly to take partial profit at 8 pts, a long from that key location would not be a losing trade.

I could not agree more
I have seen brixen handle positions which would give me a hart attack
On the other hand his strategy is tempting

Yesterday DAX was hit by a long liquidation in the morning which takes out the last Friday's low.
But the dip was bought into by some big funds. On the back of weak Euro, it has taken out the Friday's high on the other side which leaves us with a bullish engulfing bar on the daily.
The strength also lies in the fact that with the bullish price action, DAX has broken a 4 day long down trend line confirming that to be a bull flag.
It is possible some unknown buyer is suppressing DAX or some component stocks artificially low to build inventory.

Given this development, it is possible for DAX today to rip to the high closing the gap with CAC and EuStoxx50.

On the tactical level, the theme of the day should be buy the dip until the structure breaks. The primal scenario is a open-test-drive open type that I would expect DAX to test lower into yesterday's value before shooting higher. If DAX takes off from here without a pullback, then I just shrug my shoulder and let it be because it is not the market I am willing to chase from here.
There are several key levels that I am watching:
VAH = 12570
VPOC = 12557.5


If it takes out the VAL at 12510, then I would reevaluate my long bias.
Good luck trading!

Since we are trading above the 2 std 2day VWAP band at this moment, I am not allowed to buy at this price.
By looking below, there is a shallow double bottom around the VWAP that the market maker could run for liquidity.

Note that the VWAP are the center of gravity due to the high concentration of liquidity. Price tends to be pulled there when the liquidity drys up at the edge of the distribution.

Strong selling pressure pushing price towards the liquidity pool at 12580.
Look at the strongly negative delta.