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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #6,141
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:20am Apr 17, 2018 11:20am
c-12 is this good for buy GU ?

H4 no demand supply level
M30 swap zone and round number + Engulfing ?
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  • #6,142
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:25am Apr 17, 2018 11:25am
CADCHF retesting supply H4
H30 no engulfing so turned to H1 there was an engulfing so is it good to sell ?
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  • #6,143
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:32am Apr 17, 2018 11:32am
Quoting blackforex1
c-12 is this good for buy GU ? H4 no demand supply level M30 swap zone and round number + Engulfing ? {image}
It's a retest of a prior top but zones stacked above on M30 would keep me out of longs right here.
  • #6,144
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:36am Apr 17, 2018 11:36am
Quoting blackforex1
CADCHF retesting supply H4 H30 no engulfing so turned to H1 there was an engulfing so is it good to sell ? {image} {image}
This is a counter-trend zone and not a significant one unless D1 or W1 show something. Price can breeze through this type of level.

Wait for PA to establish and confirm a direction on H4 before shooting for reversals.
  • #6,145
  • Apr 17, 2018 12:36pm Apr 17, 2018 12:36pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Well you definitely want to avoid taking engulfing plays directly into opposing zones on the left. This should keep you out of trouble in most cases. It's not that I don't trust zones completely, just cold trading them based on a touch is just not my thing. Of course zones work but just as many get sliced. I look at zones as more significant than S/R and trendlines. It's just added analysis that the market is looking at. I think today was a good example of a H4 supply zone being hit with textbook M30 PA that formed mid London session. That...
Hi C-12,
thx for you answer. I don't want to beat a dead horse but can you plz explain why your engulfing in the first orange box is better than the engulfing in the third red box ?

Another question: When a nice 4 hr supply zone includes 2 quality 30 min zones which are stacked and the lower 30 min zone was visited twice and price is now at the upper 30 min zone with nice PA you would take a short trade right? I ask because while it's the first visit of a fresh zone on the 30 min tf, price is coming back to the 4 hr zone for the third time and therfore is not fresh anymore.
  • #6,146
  • Apr 17, 2018 1:11pm Apr 17, 2018 1:11pm
Quoting Fonzi
{quote} Hi C-12, thx for you answer. I don't want to beat a dead horse but can you plz explain why your engulfing in the first orange box is better than the engulfing in the third red box ? Another question: When a nice 4 hr supply zone includes 2 quality 30 min zones which are stacked and the lower 30 min zone was visited twice and price is now at the upper 30 min zone with nice PA you would take a short trade right? I ask because while it's the first visit of a fresh zone on the 30 min tf, price is coming back to the 4 hr zone for the third time...
It's not necessarily the best but this was the source demand zone established with M30 PA. There is a bit of risk with taking this one. Once it had been retested and the supply cleared above, i think that was the safest play.

As for H4 zones with scruffy LTF inside it. These can work and best with PA to trade them. It is better for all zones to be a nested single solid engulfing base. These ones I'd be more happier to touch trade. Sometimes price will not always get deep within the zone before reversing.
  • #6,147
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:01pm Apr 17, 2018 2:01pm
Hi C-12

A clarification about your preferred engulfing setups when zones just formed as you don't like to trade the retest of the zone.
1) Were is your entry point?
2)At the close of the first full body candle or the second one (see screenshot)?
3) When you are observing PA, is just 1 candle enough for you to give you the confidence that a good zone has been formed or you wait for 2 consecutive strong full bullish candles?
4) Obviously the SL is below the zone. Right?
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  • #6,148
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:33pm Apr 17, 2018 2:33pm
Quoting Merka
Hi C-12 A clarification about your preferred engulfing setups when zones just formed as you don't like to trade the retest of the zone. 1) Were is your entry point? 2)At the close of the first full body candle or the second one (see screenshot)? 3) When you are observing PA, is just 1 candle enough for you to give you the confidence that a good zone has been formed or you wait for 2 consecutive strong full bullish candles? 4) Obviously the SL is below the zone. Right? {image}
Best entry is here in yellow box PA. Bear in mind this was the first entry after the weekend and you wouldn't want to be stuck holding all weekend.

Notice the zone on the left was worn down by friday's action and the setup was building. Stop would be behind this PA as London liquidity moves in.
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  • #6,149
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:47pm Apr 17, 2018 2:47pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Best entry is here in yellow box PA. Bear in mind this was the first entry after the weekend and you wouldn't want to be stuck holding all weekend. Notice the zone on the left was worn down by friday's action and the setup was building. Stop would be behind this PA as London liquidity moves in. {image}
Your entry would have been at the yellow line at 1.23464 ish?
If not where?
Thanks
  • #6,150
  • Apr 18, 2018 2:09am Apr 18, 2018 2:09am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Your entry would have been at the yellow line at 1.23464 ish? If not where? Thanks
Yep, or a bit before.

Bit annoyed I picked the EU short over GU.... Both pretty similar but GU was ripe for getting smashed with news up.

EU stuck in mud in a tight range.. DX looks like heading more up in my eyes, but that's mostly down to GU getting ambushed.
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  • #6,151
  • Apr 18, 2018 2:26am Apr 18, 2018 2:26am
c-12 does my trade is fine ? EURAUD 30 mint all criteria has met
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  • #6,152
  • Apr 18, 2018 2:29am Apr 18, 2018 2:29am
c-12 USDJPY is fine ?

H4 was not clear so i went to D chart and found market reversing from supply so i thought to ask u , i D trend + 30 mint PA =sell ?
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  • #6,153
  • Apr 18, 2018 2:45am Apr 18, 2018 2:45am
Quoting blackforex1
c-12 USDJPY is fine ? H4 was not clear so i went to D chart and found market reversing from supply so i thought to ask u , i D trend + 30 mint PA =sell ? {image}
This could be a trade. Let's see if that small M30 demand gets taken out. Very tight range again and not a slam dunk trade.

Will keep an eye on it.
  • #6,154
  • Apr 18, 2018 3:14am Apr 18, 2018 3:14am
Quoting C-12
{quote} It's not necessarily the best but this was the source demand zone established with M30 PA. There is a bit of risk with taking this one. Once it had been retested and the supply cleared above, i think that was the safest play. As for H4 zones with scruffy LTF inside it. These can work and best with PA to trade them. It is better for all zones to be a nested single solid engulfing base. These ones I'd be more happier to touch trade. Sometimes price will not always get deep within the zone before reversing.
Hi C-12,
it seems that I got you wrong. I thought that your first orange box is an example for a trade entry immediately after an engulfing before the demand zone (indicator) is established. If that wasn't the case my question was nonsense.
  • #6,155
  • Edited 3:51am Apr 18, 2018 3:30am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting Fonzi
{quote} Hi C-12, it seems that I got you wrong. I thought that your first orange box is an example for a trade entry immediately after an engulfing before the demand zone (indicator) is established. If that wasn't the case my question was nonsense.
Sometimes you can trade these directly on the engulfing PA when you've got a solid trend and you want to hop on board.

That initial engulfing on that one wasn't really enticing on it's own looking at H4 and the location. I wouldn't have steamed straight into this one, but the zone retest looked fine for a RR perspective.

There's far more engulfing candles on a chart than zones. If you try and take them all it's going to be a tough experience.

You're mainly looking at HTF direction, zones, PA, location of LTF PA, time of day (ie liquidity, news etc). This type of discretionary trading will take some years of screentime and there's no real cut and paste template for it.
  • #6,156
  • Apr 18, 2018 5:35am Apr 18, 2018 5:35am
Turned out a bit of a scalpers day on my day off. Need to go out, this is possibly heading higher and can't be arsed checking the phone.

RR was decent enough. Few break evens hit on earlier shorts.
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  • #6,157
  • Apr 18, 2018 11:26pm Apr 18, 2018 11:26pm
usdchf almost near to hit SL , trade base only on M30, H4 was not supportive

c-12 what is the best PA /pattern /shape of candles that tell us price can reverse or continue ?
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  • #6,158
  • Edited 1:21am Apr 19, 2018 1:08am | Edited 1:21am
Quoting blackforex1
usdchf almost near to hit SL , trade base only on M30, H4 was not supportive c-12 what is the best PA /pattern /shape of candles that tell us price can reverse or continue ? {image}
Why take trade if H4 isn't supportive?

You have to realise that there are 100's of counter-trend zones in an uptrend. Every single one will cause loss unless you're scalping or happen to get lucky and pick the exact top or bottom.

It's best to change this mindset early before it becomes a habit. I was exactly the same and it look me over a year back in 2013 to break this mindset.

Stop looking for reversals in the top right of a H4 chart, be patient and wait for pullbacks. If you're trend trading, let price pullback into an area of interest. The Daily and Weekly time frame will tell you where the end of the trend is.

When a top comes there will a whopping bearish candle and a big move away. Price will then usually go back and retest it for an entry.
  • #6,159
  • Apr 19, 2018 1:55am Apr 19, 2018 1:55am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Why take trade if H4 isn't supportive? You have to realise that there are 100's of counter-trend zones in an uptrend. Every single one will cause loss unless you're scalping or happen to get lucky and pick the exact top or bottom. It's best to change this mindset early before it becomes a habit. I was exactly the same and it look me over a year back in 2013 to break this mindset. Stop looking for reversals in the top right of a H4 chart, be patient and wait for pullbacks. If you're trend trading, let price pullback into an area of interest....
ur my inspiration love u so much impressed by u ..awesome trick and tip
  • #6,160
  • Apr 19, 2018 4:53am Apr 19, 2018 4:53am
Quoting blackforex1
{quote} ur my inspiration love u so much impressed by u ..awesome trick and tip
Yes, C-12 is great. He is a very good teacher and he hides nothing. Everything he's doing is on the table. It is the bigest joke that his thread was arrested in the commercial section.
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