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Elliott Wave Analysis: Gold in Sideways Range

Gold short term Elliott Wave view suggests that the yellow metal is in a sideways move, typical characteristic of a triangle Elliott Wave structure. A triangle is a sideways range structure with ABCDE label. In the case of Gold, decline from 1/25/2018 peak ($1366.06) ended in Minor wave A at $1302.6. Minor wave B bounce ended at $1356.83. Minor wave C is currently in progress and while bounces stay below $1356.83, the metal is expected to extend lower.

Internal of Minor wave C is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at $1321.1, Minute wave ((x)) ended at $1348.4, and Minute wave ((y)) of C is in progress towards $1303.97 – $1312.44 before the metal turns higher and resume the consolidation. Near term, expect Minutte wave (b) bounce to end at $1342.91 – $1346.74 area before the metal turns lower in 3 waves at least. Due to the sideways range, we prefer to stay on the sidelines waiting for break above $1366.06 or below $1302.6. The current view suggests that Gold is in a bullish triangle, thus it’s best to wait for a break above $1366.06 to signal the end of the triangle before looking to buy dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Ruble Falls Following US Sanctions Against Russia

New U.S. Sanctions Hurt Russia’s Ruble and Benchmark Index
Last Friday, as part of the U.S. effort to punish Moscow for “malign activity around the globe”, the U.S Treasury Department targeted numerous Russian oligarchs, officials, and companies by freezing their assets under U.S. jurisdiction. In addition, the U.S. also prohibits U.S. citizens or entities from doing business with the sanctioned Russian entities. The Russian Ruble continues to plunge for the second day in a row by more than 4.5% after the sanctions. The Ruble’s 1 month volatility jumped 2.6% points to 11.9%, the highest among the world’s currencies after South Africa’s Rand.

The sanctions not only hurt the Ruble, but it also hurts the stock and bond markets as well. Benchmark MOEX Russia Index plunged by 8.7% on Monday following the sanction. Rusal, a Russian aluminum producer targeted by the sanctions fell by 50% in the Hong Kong stock exchange. Yields for the ruble-denominated bonds sky rocketed on the news of the new U.S. sanctions.
The new measures come amid deteriorating relationship between Russia and the West over the poisoning of Russian ex-spy Sergei Skripal In U.K last month. Mr. Sergei was killed using a military grade nerve agent that London and United States link and put the blame on Moscow. In addition, the U.S has also accused Russia of meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Then in the latest chemical attack outside Syria linked to Assad, President Donald Trump has warned of a “big price to pay” as he accused Kremlin sharing the responsibility for backing Syrian President Assad.
Ruble (USDRUB) Long Term Elliott Wave View

Long Term Elliott Wave view of Ruble suggests that the rally from all time low could be unfolding either as an impulse (5 waves) or a zigzag (ABC) Elliott Wave structure. The rally from Grand Super Cycle wave ((II)) to wave ((III)) has an extension compared to wave ((I)), with more than 161.8% extension, suggesting that it is possible that the move to Jan 21, 2016 high at 85.84 is only wave ((III)) and thus it should have more upside to finish wave ((V)) from all time low.
The decline to wave ((IV)) at 55.76 on Feb 26, 2018 falls between 38.2 and 50% retracement of wave ((III)). As far as USDRUB stays above 55.76, it can resume higher to new all time high in wave ((V)) or at least do larger 3 waves bounce to correct cycle from Jan 21, 2016 peak. Alternatively, the move to 85.84 on Jan 21, 2016 could be ending a zigzag ((a))-((b))-((c)) from all time low. In this scenario, the pair should be correcting the entire rally from all-time low and thus any rally should fail below Jan 21, 2016 peak (85.84) for further downside at least another leg.
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EURNZD Forecasting The Decline after Elliott Wave Flat

Hello Fellow Traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURNZD published in members area of the website. We’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern. Before we take a look at the real market expample of Expanded Flat, let’s explain it in a few word.
Elliott Wave Expanded Flat is a 3 wave corrective pattern which could often be seen in the market nowadays. Inner subdivision is labeled as A,B,C , with inner 3,3,5 structure. Waves A and B have forms of corrective structures like zigzag, flat, double three or triple three. Third wave C is always 5 waves structure, either motive impulse or ending diagonal pattern. It’s important to notice that in Expanded Flat Pattern wave B completes below the start point of wave A, and wave C ends above the ending point of wave A which makes it Expanded. Wave C of expanded completes usually close to 1.236 Fibonacci extension of A related to B, but sometimes it could go up to 1.618 fibs ext.
At the graphic below, we can see what Expanded Flat structure looks like.

EURNZD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 04.06.2018
As our members know, we’re labeling short term cycle from the 1.71645 peak as 5 waves structure. Wave ((ii)) ended at 1.71423 high and now the pair remains is correcting short term cycle against that peak. As far as proposed pivot stays intact we should ideally see another leg lower in wave ((v)). Currently wave ((iv)) recovery is in progress. It’s unfolding as Elliott Wave Expanded Flat structure, with inner labeleing (a)(b)(c) blue. As we can see wave (b) has broken below the start point of wave (a),while wave (c) has broken above ending point of wave (a) which makes this structure Extended. Currently the pair is ending wave (c) as 5 waves rally from the low. The pair is expected to find sellers at 1.6884-1.6921 area for another leg lower wave ((v)) . Keep in mind not every char is Trading Signal. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.


Eventually EURNZD has found sellers at proposed area :1.6884-1.6921 and gave us decline in wave ((v)). On April 10th, the pair has made the new low as we expected.
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Nifty 50 Index Bullish Sequence to the All Time Highs

The Nifty 50 Index has a bullish sequence from the lows to the all time highs. The index currently shows nine swings up from the all time lows into the 2018 highs. It is now correcting the cycle higher from the February 2016 lows. This is noted on the chart with the red 8 label. In this article there is not an Elliott Wave count on the chart as it’s the natural swing count the price and momentum indicators suggest. Notice from the all time lows to the 2008 highs appears to be 3 swings as noted with the red 3 on the chart. Next, the dip into the 2008 lows was strong enough to suggest it was then correcting the whole cycle from the beginning. That was the 4th swing.
From the point of the 2008 lows there are a couple of preferred ways to put Elliott Wave labels on the move. I will focus toward the possibility of there having been a leading diagonal wave one with the 2008 lows being a wave two. If so, then it already saw a wave three that subdivided in three swings into the 2015 highs. That is marked with the red 7 and is similar to the wave one.
Continued below chart.
Nifty 50 Index Swing Sequence

The dip into the 2016 lows was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle from the 2008 lows. This affirms the idea wave four is at the 2016 lows marked with the red 8. The bounce from there into the 2018 highs of course is the swing marked with the red 9. At this point of the 9th swing high, another option is possible as far as an Elliott Wave count. This 2018 high can be the larger wave three high of the cycle that started in 2008. The other is it only half of the fifth wave which would still need another swing higher.
In conclusion, there are several other correlated instruments and world indices with bullish sequences. All of these are only correcting the cycle up from the 2016 lows. It is all one market and his index should be no different. The longer term bullish up trend has temporarily stalled. After this correction of the cycle up from the 2016 lows it should see another move higher.
Thanks for looking and feel free to come visit our website and check out our services Free for 14 days and see if we can be of help.
Kind regards & good luck trading.
Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team

Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Moving in Impulsive Structure

USDCAD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 3/19 high (1.313) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1.313, Minor wave 1 ended at 1.2819, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.2943, and Minor wave 3 is in progress. Internal of Minor wave 3 also unfolded as an impulse with a nest. Minute wave ((i)) of 3 ended at 1.2771, Minute wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at 1.2847, and Minute wave (((iii)) is unfolding as a 5 waves of lesser degree.

Down from Minute wave ((ii)) at 1.2847, Minutte wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 1.274, Minutte wave (ii) of ((iii)) ended at 1.2819, and Minutte wave (iii) of ((iii)) should complete with 1 more leg lower. Afterwards, expect pair to do minor bounce in Minutte wave (iv) of ((iii)) before turning lower again. While Minor wave 2 pivot at 4/2 high (1.2943) stays intact, expect pair to extend lower a few more legs before ending the entire 5 waves structure from 3/19 high. We don’t like buying the pair.

USDCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave Analysis: GBPUSD Strength Expected

GBPUSD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally from 3.1.2018 low (1.371) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Up from 3.1.2018 low, Minor wave 1 ended at 1.4245 and Minor wave 2 ended at 1.3964. Pair has since broken above Minor wave 1 at 1.4245, suggesting that the sequence from 3.1.2018 low is bullish and the next leg higher in Minor wave 3 has started. Minor wave 3 is in progress with internal subdivision as 5 waves impulse of lower degree. Up from 1.3964, Minutte wave (i) ended at 1.4022, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1.3981, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1.422, and Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1.4144.

Pair has scope to do another minor leg higher to complete Minutte wave (v). This next leg higher should also complete Minute wave ((i)) of a higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in Minute wave ((ii)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 4/5 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback and expect pair to find support in the pullback in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 4/5/2018 low at 1.3964 stays intact.

GBPUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Geopolitical Tension Could Be Catalyst for Gold’s Rally

Rising Geopolitical Tension between U.S. and Russia
The geopolitical tension between the United States and Russia escalated rapidly in the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, the U.S. Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions against Russian oligarchs and companies due to “Russia’s malign activity around the globe”. This new sanctions have caused economic pain to Moscow with Russian Ruble and MOEX benchmark index plunging.
The tension between the two countries escalated further after the use of nerve agent to poison a Russian ex-spy and his daughter in England in March, which is blamed on Russia. This then follows the alleged chemical weapons attack at the town of Douma in Syria on April 4 by the Assad’s regime. More than 80 civilians were reported dead and hundreds suffered symptoms consisted with reaction to a nerve agent chlorine and sarin. President Trump condemned the attack to Assad, Russia, and Iran in his personal tweet and threatened a big price to pay

The verbal exchange continued as Russia responded by saying they could shoot down missiles from the United States if they attack Syria. President Trump in turn followed up in his tweeter:

Late last week President Trump seemed to dial back from his threat of imminent strike, perhaps as criticisms come that he should not tip this kind of decision in social media as it will eliminate any element of surprise. Or perhaps President Trump wants to wait for the weekend to carry the strike to reduce the impact on the market and allows market participants to digest the development without over-reaction.
War Breakout in Syria
Over the weekend however, President Trump followed up on his threat. The coalition forces of the United States, U.K, and France launched a precision military strike in Syria. The strike was limited in scope and target three Syrian chemical weapons facilities. The U.S. was particularly focused on targets which do not involve Russian forces in Syria and reduce the risk of civilian casualties.
The military action was designed to be limited in scope to deter the use of chemical weapons. The U.S and its allies do not want to get involved in the civil war which has raged for years in Syria involving militias, terrorist groups, and other world powers. It remains to be seen if the goal could be achieved and it will be interesting to see the global market’s reaction when it opens next week.
Gold’s Technical View
Gold traditionally is seen as a a safe haven instrument in times of uncertainty and turmoil. Technically, the long term technical picture appears bullish and the current geopolitical turmoil could be the catalyst needed for the next leg up
Gold vs Yen (XAUJPY) Technical Chart

Weekly chart of XAUJPY above shows that the instrument has been trading in sideways triangle Elliott Wave structure for 5 years since year 2013. Triangle is typically a continuation structure. and as the previous trend before 2013 is higher, it’s likely to resume higher again once the sideways consolidation is complete
Gold vs USD (XAUUSD) Technical Chart

Weekly chart of XAUUSD above shows that the metal has ended cycle from 2011 peak, as seen in the break above the trend line. In addition, it has formed a 5 year base, an inverse head and shoulder like pattern. In the near term, it has not been able to break the neckline, but a break above 1/25/2018 peak ($1366) should give signal the next leg higher has started.
Gold 5 swing bullish sequence from 2016 low

In addition to the weekly chart which shows a 5 year basing pattern, XAUUSD daily sequence chart above also shows a 5 swing sequence from 2016 low, favoring further upside towards $1451 – $1529 area to complete 7 swing double three Elliott Wave Structure (WXY), provided that pullbacks stay above 12.2017 low ($1236.66). Please note that the number on the chart represents on the swing count, not an Elliott Wave count.
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USDCAD Elliott Wave View: Calling Intraday Bounce

USDCAD Elliott Wave short-term view suggests that the bounce to 1.2942 high ended Intermediate degree wave (2). Then the decline from there is unfolding in an impulse sequence with an internal sub-division of each leg lower is showing 5 waves structure thus favored it to be an impulse. Below from 1.2942 high, Intermediate wave (3) remains in progress in 5 waves structure looking for 1 more push lower before a bounce in Intermediate wave (4) takes place.
Now let’s take a quick look at the short-term price action in the pair from 1.2942 high. The decline from there can be seen in 5 waves impulse sequence, where Minor wave 1 of (3) ended in 5 waves at 1.2744. Minor wave 2 of (3) ended 1.2818, Minor wave 3 of (3) ended in another 5 waves at 1.2543 low. And above from there Minor wave 4 of (3) bounce ended in 3 swings as a Flat structure at 1.2622 high. Below from there, the pair is expected to see another marginal push lower towards the inverse 1.236-1.618% ext area of Minor wave 4 at 1.2524-1.2493 area approximately to end the Minor wave 5 of (3) lower. However, in case of further downside extension pair can extend in Minor wave 5 of (3) towards wave 5=1 target area as well at 1.2418-1.2373 area before a bounce in intermediate wave (4) takes place against 1.2942 high. Which should then expected to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 1.2942 high for further downside extension, so don’t like buying the pair into proposed bounces.
USDCAD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Copper: Forecasting the Path & Buying the Dips

Hello Fellow Traders. Another instruments we have traded lately is Copper. As our members know, Copper has been trading within the bullish cycle from the January 2016 low. We were keep saying members to avoid selling it and keep buying the dips at extremes when get chance. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Copper published in members area of the website. Now let’s explain the forecast and trading strategy.
Copper 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 3.26.2018
Copper is doing pull back against the 2.0072 low. It has reached extreme area from the December 2017 peak at 2.9803-29107 ( buying zone). The instrument should ideally find buyers at mentioned area for further rally or 3 wave bounce at least. The pull back is unfolding as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern which already have minimum requirements to complete. Our strategy is buying the dips in 7 swings at 2.9803-29107 area when invalidation level comes at 2.7970. So, if price breaks below that level, we close the long trades with loss. However, due to previous bullish trend, we expect 3 wave bounce to happen at least which will allow us to make long positions risk free as soon as we get decent bounce.

Copper 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 4.4.2018
We got nice reaction from the buying zone. Now as far as the price stays above 2.9373, we’re calling pull back completed at that low. Current short term pull back has been deep. It has reached almost 76.4 % Fibonacci retracement against the low. It can be done at 2.9694 low (as far as the price stays above that low) and we expect further rally to resume.

Copper 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 4.11.2018
The instrument has made further separation from the lows and all long positions are now risk free. At this stage we’re at the extreme area from the 2.9378 low and pull back is expected to take place soon. Note: some labels have been removed from the charts in order to protect clients’ privileges.
Keep in mind the market is very dynamic and short term view could have changed or not be valid any more when you look at this chart. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

Elliott Wave Forecast
We cover 78 instruments in total, but not every chart is trading recommendation. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.

Elliott Wave Analysis: Calling The Double Correction In Russell

In this blog, I will show you some short-term Elliott Wave charts of Russell which we presented to our members in the past. Down below, you see the 1-hour updated chart presented to our clients on the 04/11/18 calling for more upside in a Double Elliott Wave correction in red W-X.
Russell ended the cycle from 03/13 peak, at around the areas of 1482 (04/02 low). Down from there, it started a recovery to the upside. The pullback can unfold either in 3-7 or 11 swings. After ending the cycle from 03/13 peak, the index started a recovery in red wave W-X. We mentioned to our clients that the market should ideally end the correction from 04/02 low at the equal legs area of red W-X, which comes at around 1567.04+ areas. As it broke the red wave W 04/05 highs, the market opened up a short-term sequence from 04/02 low, confirming the next leg higher. However, short-term it corrected the cycle from 04/06 lows (1502.46) in black wave ((x)) first before the next move to the upside can be seen.
Russell 04.11.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis


As I said in the paragraph above. Russell confirmed the next move higher due to the break above the highs of red wave W. In the last Elliott Wave chart, you can see that the instrument has ended black wave ((x)) and rallied nicely to the upside. You can see that the instrument has reached the equal legs at around 1567.04+ areas. Ideally, Russell corrects now the cycle from 04/02 lows at least in 3 waves. Either for new lows or another correction higher in 7 swings. That needs to be seen at this stage.
Russell 04.13.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

I hope you enjoyed this blogand I wish you all good trades.
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SPX Elliott Wave View: Calling Reaction Lower Soon

SPX Elliott Wave view in short-term cycles suggest that the bounce to 3/13 high (2803.37) ended primary wave ((X)). Down from there, primary wave ((Y)) remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. The internal distribution of wave ((Y)) shows overlapping structure, thus favored it to be a corrective sequence i.e either W.X.Y or W.X.Y.X.Z.
Down from 3/13 high (2803.37), Intermediate wave (W) of ((Y)) ended at 2553.53 low as double three structure. Above from there, Intermediate wave (X) bounce remains in progress to correct cycle from 3/13 high. The internals of Intermediate wave (X) bounce is also unfolding as Elliott Wave Double Three structure where Minor wave W ended in 3 swings at 2672.08 and Minor wave X ended at 2586.27. Above from there, Minor wave Y remains in progress as Triple three structure, which has already reached the 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of W-X at 2706.17-2734.12. The internals of wave Y ended Minute wave ((w)) at 2653.55, Minute wave ((x)) at 2610.79, Minute wave ((y)) ended at 2680.26, and Minute second wave ((x)) ended at 2645.05 low. Near term, as far as a pivot from 3/13 high (2803.37) remains intact, expect Index to resume lower in intermediate wave (Y) or pullback in 3 swings at least. We don’t like selling it.

SPX Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

$SPX: The Index Within Areas Where The Hedging Is Calling a Pullback

The $SPX trend is to the upside but the Index ended the cycle from 2.2016 and like every other Index, it is correcting that cycle. In Elliott Wave Theory, corrections run in the sequences of 3-7-11 swings and consequently trading against the main trend which is to the upside is always risky. We do understand the Market Nature and we are able to see all possible paths or possibilities a Market can do. The Index is reaching the Blue Box from the low at 4.2.2018 and soon it should pullback in 3 waves into a definition of the higher degree trend. The move from 4.2.2018 is a 15 minutes cycle and the Market is combination of time frames. We are currently presenting to members the scenario which takes the Index to 2461 but we do not see any bearish sequences calling lower so we do not recommend selling, otherwise we recommend waiting for the market to reach the extreme to buy or create a short-term bearish sequence before selling intra-day bounces. If reaction lower from the blue box manages to break below April low, that would create a 15 minute bearish sequence down from 3.13.2018 peak.
The Following chart is showing the cycle from 4.2.2018 and consequently the Blue Box in 15 minutes.

1. The Index reaches our area (Blue Box) to end a corrective cycle from 4.2.2018 and then consequently will extend lower into a 4 Hour extreme since peak at 3.13.2018, this is the most Bearish scenario and should provide a nice area to go long around 2461.

2. The Index reaches our area (Blue Box) in which 3 waves from 4.2.2018 ends and instead of breaking lower into 2461 area, the Index remain trapped between 2.9.2018 low and 3.13.2018 peak creating either a Bullish or Bearish triangle.

3. The Index reaches our area (Blue Box) in which 3 waves from 4.2.2018 ends and pullback in 3 waves, then rally into 2822 in which case either become a Bullish triangle or renew of the higher degree trend.

As we can see the Market is calling for a pullback from the area between 2706-2779. We do understand the Nature of the Market and always educate members to wait for the extremes and then trade with the trend, consequently even when Elliott wave hedging now is calling a pullback, the Market needs to clear the path and define which scenario is playing out. The declined from 2706-2779 area will defined the path and consequently better opportunities will present in the near future, waiting and understanding the nature of the structure sometimes is better than guessing.

USDNOK Elliott Wave Analysis: Q2 2018 Target Area

In this blog, we look at the swing sequence in USDNOK pair down from 1.6.2016 peak and explain the reason for selling the pair back in February 2018. USDNOK is showing 5 swings down from 1.6.2016 peak which is an incomplete bearish sequence and calls for USDNOK Q2 target to be lower. As shown on the daily chart, we are labelling the decline as a double three Elliott wave structure when wave “w” ended at 7.702 and wave “x” bounce ended at 8.4194. Down from there, we saw a decline in 5 waves which completed wave ((A)) at 7.637 and was followed by a bounce in wave ((B)) to 8.057. Pair has now resumed the decline and preferred Elliott wave view calls for the decline to extend lower towards 7.2755 – 7.1143 area. This area would complete a Zig-zag structure down from wave “x” peak at 8.4194 and a 7 swings Elliott wave sequence down from 1.6.2016 peak.
A break below 7.637 low is needed to confirm wave ((C)) lower has started towards USDNOK Q2 target. Until then a double correction in wave ((B)) towards 8.0736 – 8.1734 area can’t be ruled out but is not the preferred view. In either case, we don’t like the buying and like staying short and risk free from 8.0256 area looking lower towards USDNOK Q2 target area. A break of 7.637 low would initially expose 7.49 – 7.394 area which is 100 – 123.6 extension area of (1)-(2) and should complete wave (3) of ((C)). From there, we can expect a bounce in wave (4) to correct the decline from wave (2) peak at 7.898 for extension lower towards USDNOK Q2 target area between 7.2755 – 7.1143. Watch the video below in which we explained the swing sequence down from 1.6.2016 peak and the reason for selling the pair back in February 2018.

USDNOK Q2 Target Area and Swings Sequence VIDEO

USDNOK Swing Sequence from 1.6.2016 Peak


USDNOK Elliott Wave Analysis: Daily Time Frame

CL_F Elliott Wave View: Calling More Strength

CL_F Elliott Wave short-term view suggests that the decline to 61.80 on 4/06/2018 low ended Intermediate wave (2). Above from there, Intermediate wave (3) remains in progress as Zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Looking to extend higher towards 70.43-72.47 area at a minimum. Up from 61.80 low, the instrument made a strong rally higher. And ended Minor wave A at 67.45 high in 5 waves structure.
The internals of Minor wave A unfolded in 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((i)) at 62.43, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 62.09. Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 66.44 and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 65.71 low. And Minute wave ((v)) of A ended at 67.45. The instrument then made a 3 waves correction lower in Minor wave B pullback as a Flat. Down from 67.45, Minute wave ((a)) at 66 low, Minute wave ((b)) at 67.76 and Minute wave ((c)) of B ended at 65.56 low.
Above from there, the instrument already broke to new highs confirming the next extension higher in Minor wave C of (3). Therefore looking for the extension higher towards 70.43-72.47 as noted above. Up from 65.56 low, the instrument is expected to end 5 waves in Minute wave ((i)) of C soon. And should see a pullback in Minute wave ((ii)) of C in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling it.
CL_F Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

$NG_F Natural Gas Daily Corrective Cycle from 12/28/16

As seen in the daily graphic below you may notice it is absent of an Elliott Wave count. However the important dates with the swing highs and swing lows are highlighted that suggest the target area for buying that can be seen later. Currently Natural Gas is only showing a three swing move lower from 12/28/16 down to the 2/22/17 lows. From there it did another three swings higher into the 1/29/18 highs earlier this year. The sharp dip lower from there failed to give a clean break of the 2/22/17 lows. We have reason to think the commodity will follow through lower and complete seven corrective swings from 12/28/16. This reasoning is due to other correlated instruments in the markets. The longer term analysis is continued below the chart.
$NG_F Natural Gas Daily Chart

As mentioned earlier the commodity has not broken below the 2/22/17 lows as of of now. That break needs to be seen while the current bounce continues to show it will remain below the 1/29/18 highs. This bounce began from the 2/15/18 lows and shows a Fibonacci extension area at 2.838-3.011. As of now that is what should be seen in the near term before the expected break and swing lower.
Regarding some of the further back technical history of Natural Gas. The commodity made an all time high back in December 2005. This of course is not on the daily chart shown above. What is shown on the chart are the 3/14/16 lows that are of importance. Those lows are favored ended the larger cycle lower from the 2005 highs.
In conclusion, the cycle from the all time lows up to the 2005 highs is by most anyone’s standards seen as a bullish cycle. As mentioned earlier the dip to the 3/4/16 lows corrected that cycle. That became apparent it ended when Natural Gas bounced to the 12/28/16 highs. From there the correction lower shows an extension area on the daily chart at the 2.197-1.852 area. That has two conditions to happen while the commodity remains in a no trade area. The Fibonacci extension area remains the same while showing it will remain below the 1/29/18 highs. Lastly of course it has to break the aforementioned 2/22/17 lows.
Thanks for looking and feel free to come visit our website and check out our services Free for 14 days and see if we can be of help.
Kind regards & good luck trading.
Lewis Jones of the ElliottWave-Forecast.com Team

EURUSD Elliott Wave View: Still Trading Sideways

Short-term EURUSD Elliott Wave view suggests that the pair remains in a sideways triangle range between 1.2554 and 1.2153 levels as mentioned in the previous post here. Until we break out of the range, we look for the sideways price action to continue. Triangle doesn’t have any particular trend, but it is generally a continuation pattern, thus the pair likely thrust higher to continue the previous bullish trend after the sideways action is over. If we take a look at the previous cycle from January 2017 low. The pair shows a higher high sequence thus the pair is favored to trade higher once triangle consolidation is complete. It’s important to note that the Triangle is labeled as A,B,C,D,E.
Currently, we can be in the final stage of triangle structure in Cycle degree wave IV where the decline to 1.2214 low ended Primary wave ((C)) of IV. Above from there, wave ((D)) of IV ended at 1.2414 high. The internals of primary wave ((D)) is unfolding as zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.2396. Afterwards, Intermediate wave (B) pullback ended at 1.2298 low and Intermediate wave (C) of ((D)) ended at 1.2414 high. Down from there, Primary wave ((E)) of IV remains in progress as double three Elliott Wave structure looking to end Intermediate wave (W) of ((E)) in 3 swings at 1.2320-1.2301 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of Minor A-B. Pair should then correct in Intermediate wave (X) of ((E)) and ideally fail below 1.2414 for another extension lower before a thrust higher is seen. We don’t like selling the pair.
EURUSD Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Straits Times Index STI Supporting Stock Market Bulls

Straits Times Index (STI) is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. It tracks the performance of the top 30 companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. It is jointly calculated by Singapore Exchange (SGX), Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and FTSE Group (FTSE).
Applying the One Market concept , we know that major world indices around the world are oscillating on the same cycles. In the following chart, we overlay STI with 3 different indexes from USA (SPX), Germany (DAX) and Japan (NIKKEI) still we notice STI is trading in the same direction as the rest.
Overlay of STI, SPX, DAX, NIKKEI

Since the 2008 Financial crises, the majority of indexes around the world recovered and made new all time highs and the cycle fro; 2009 is still in progress despite the media keeps calling for a big crash. In the next Chart, we’ll apply the Elliott Wave Theory on Straits Times Index to identify the current structure taking place.
STI Weekly Elliott Wave Chart

From 2009, STI did 5 waves move in a diagonal which ended on 2015 peak followed by 3 waves pullback into early 2016 low like the rest of the stock market. Up from there it started a new 5 waves impulse to the upside and managed to break above 2015 peak. This move created a bullish sequence to the upside and opened the door for the Index to trade higher toward equal legs area 4630 – 5120.
Ideally this move to the upside should be seen around the globe as major Indices are expected to continue their rally in the coming years before a major peak can take place on 2020 – 2022.
Switching to the daily chart of Straits Times Index, we can notice that the instrument seems to have ended the current correction from January and could have already resumed the move higher even there is still possibility of a double correction lower as long as it remain below January peak.
STI Daily Scenario 1 Elliott Wave Chart

After the index breaks to new highs, it will be looking to reach the 61.8% fib ext area 3826 – 4133 which would produce a 3 waves pullback before more continuation to the upside. However depending the on the speed & timing of the move, the index could have different structure taking place and can be labeled on different way.
A less aggressive scenario would suggest that STI is still looking to end wave III of (I) of the impulse from 2016 low which implicate another extra 2 legs to take place before it reaches the 61.8% and most likely will take more time into 2018.
STI Daily Scenario 2 Elliott Wave Chart

Recap
Straits Times Index is showing an Elliott Wave bullish structure from 2016 low supporting more upside around the global stock market and despite the instrument still needs to break to new highs to confirm the next leg higher, there is still more scenarios can be taking place later on depending on the structure of the move.

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USDX Elliott Wave View: Extending Higher As Impulse

USDX Elliott Wave view in short-term cycle suggests that the decline to 89.22 ended Intermediate wave (B) as Elliott Wave Zigzag correction. Above from there, Intermediate wave (C) remains in progress as Elliott Wave Impulsive sequence with extension looking for further extension higher. The internal distribution of each leg consists of 5 waves structure with extension in the third wave thus we favor the structure to be an impulsive sequence.
Up from 89.22 low, Minor wave 1 of (C) ended in 5 waves at 89.66, Minor wave 2 ended as a Flat at 89.45 low. Then above from there Minor wave 3 remains in progress. The internal of Minor wave 3 is unfolding as an Impulse Elliott Wave sequence with extension where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 89.72, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 89.51, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 90.47 high, and Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 90.21 low. Above from there, Minute wave ((v)) of 3 remains in progress looking to extend higher 1 more push towards 91.17 – 91.40 area approximately to end 5 waves in Minor wave 3. Afterwards, the index should do a Minor wave 4 pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside is seen. We don’t like selling it into a proposed pullback.
USDX Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis: SPX May Start a New Leg Lower

SPX short-term Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the decline to 2553.8 low ended intermediate wave (W). Above from there, the rally ended in intermediate wave (X) at 2717.49 high and the same time also completed the correction against 3/13/2018 peak (2801.9). The Index however still needs to break below wave (W) at 2553.8 low, and more importantly below 2/10 low (2532.69) to confirm that the next leg lower has started.
The internal of Intermediate wave (X) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure, where Minor wave W ended at 2672.08. Minor wave X ended at 2586.27 and Minor wave Y of (X) ended at 2717.49. Down from there, the index made a 3 waves reaction lower as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave (a) ended at 2657.99 and Minute wave (b) bounce ended at 2683.55 high. Minute wave (c) of ((w)) appears complete at 2617.32 low. This level is within the 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of Minute (a)-(b) at 2609.9 – 2624.01. Near-term, expect the index to rally in Minute wave ((x)) to correct cycle from 4/18 high (2717.52) before further downside is seen, provided that pivot at 2717.52 high stays intact.
SPX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

EURUSD: Is History Repeating Itself?

In this Blog, we will have a look at the bigger picture of EURUSD pair. One of the reasons why retail traders fail in trading is because they stick to one time frame, analyse that and trade that accordingly.
However, traders with this approach will not last long in this business. One of the key elements when analysing the markets is to start with the highest time frame you can find (monthly, quarterly, yearly). Traders lack in knowledge. They think that when they trade the 1-hour chart or even the 15 minutes, they don’t need to know and identify the higher degree trend. When they trade the 1-hour chart and a bigger move comes across the market, traders get off-guard and get stopped out which leads to frustration and even results in more losses due to revenge trading or reversing positions without any planning.

In this special blog, I want to share with you the EURUSD Quarterly chart. I want to show you why the EURUSD is bullish and there is a chance that decline from early 2001 has ended at the 2017 low (1.0711). The swing counts do not reflect Elliott Wave counts!
EURUSD Quarterly Chart

In the chart above, you can see the EURUSD in the quarterly chart. The pair has a 5 swing bullish sequence from 1985 low, targeting the areas of around 1.72287+ areas. I want to make clear in this blog that I am not saying that the EURUSD will go to 1.72287. And I also want to point out that minor pullbacks in lower time frames will occur. The market never move in one straight line. I just want to point out with this blog, that the EURUSD is supported overall. Even if you “only” take the 50% Fibonacci extension from the decline from 2001, the EURUSD can go to at least 1.32522-1.40 levels.
Having a look at the history you can see that when EURUSD reached the equal legs from 1994 high at around 0.81669. From there it bounced and made new highs.
EURUSD Monthly Chart

Now, let’s have a look at the monthly chart. You can see that the past rallies took about 8-10 Years. And the consolidation phase took around 5-8 years.
You can see after the consolidation that the market broke the consolidation trend-line and rallied big time in the past in a similar manner. If you have a look at the current consolidation trend-line. You can make out that EURUSD is still missing the break of the trend-line from the decline of 2008. We need to understand that the break is still missing and a new low below 2017 can’t be ruled out.
However, having a look at the RSI trend-line from 2008 we can see that it already broke it. That gives us the first clue that market has ended the cycle from 2008 high and should ideally rally. Anyhow, a break in the price trend-line should be coming soon this year. If history is repeating itself, we are looking to a rally to the upside which could take us about 8 years.
Believe it or not. In our book, if trading on a very long-timeframe, the areas to build up long position were from equal legs area (1.07106 areas), looking for higher targets. However, coming back to my comment above that “retail traders fail in trading because they stick to one timeframe, analyze it and trade it accordingly” With this charts, you can see that the EURUSD is not bearish at all like many analysts assume. We wrote another blog about the DXY explaining the Dollar Index and its path.
I hope you enjoyed this special blog and wish you all good trades.
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