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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #6,121
  • Edited 11:44am Apr 16, 2018 10:56am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting blackforex1
hi i sold EU at base on H1 and 15 mint , after reading ur all thread , i decided to trade with 1hour for trend + 15 mint for entry , becoz i cannot wait so much long , i am speedy/scalper guy so one the behalf of 1H i have sold the EU now , STop loss and TP have been , plz update me thankx if i am wrong {image}
Ok, this is more of a counter-trend reversal in my eyes. Also look left, not fresh and trending higher.

Zone looks a bit untidy so I'm not in this, plus the time of day means it's not my bag. I'd have to sit through an overnight grind.

I want entries at the London open (ideally) or occasionally NY open if we're waiting for some news setup.

I'd rather be closing positions at this time of day rather than opening them, or holding a running position from lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H1.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #6,122
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:04am Apr 16, 2018 11:04am
If we can get get a bit of overnight drift down towards yellow lines I'll watch for PA tomorrow.

We'll see where price is at by 7am GMT.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #6,123
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:10am Apr 16, 2018 11:10am
Bit of an indicator here I developed with zero coding skills.

You drag it on the chart and place a horizontal line on the chart, it will then duplicate across multiple charts of the same pair. If you move it, it then moves on all charts.

Just enter the number 1 in the indi and then name the horizontal line as 1 (or whatever name as long as it matches).
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 H_line_copier.ex4   8 KB | 320 downloads
File Type: mq4 H_line_copier.mq4   2 KB | 346 downloads
  • #6,124
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:45am Apr 16, 2018 11:45am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Damn, this didn't setup in time before I set off to work. It's worth studying this PA on M30. These are my favourite engulfing setups since they catch everyone off guard who get blindsided by previous bear candle. Once it's formed, the stop goes behind it. M15 shows this PA was not from fresh air but there was a sneaky zone in play. M30 and M15 make a good stack with H4. M5 is rarely used these days. Again, be very careful of picking daily tops / major reversals before they've form. {image}
@C-12

I have question about the zone you market on M30 chart.
I agree with you that it's a nice zone with strong move away from the zone, nice basing, made a HH etc... but seams that you placed a trade on that zone already.
How did you trade that zone if price never pulled back to the zone?
Usually I mark my zones on my 3 TFs D/4H/1H and when price return to the zones I trade them if there is enough profit margin and the arrival to the zone is good.
That is how I learned the S&D methodology.
  • #6,125
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:03pm Apr 16, 2018 12:03pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} @C-12 I have question about the zone you market on M30 chart. I agree with you that it's a nice zone with strong move away from the zone, nice basing, made a HH etc... but seams that you placed a trade on that zone already. How did you trade that zone if price never pulled back to the zone? Usually I mark my zones on my 3 TFs D/4H/1H and when price return to the zones I trade them if there is enough profit margin and the arrival to the zone is good. That is how I learned the S&D methodology.
I'm not always trading off zones.

Look at the PA structure at very moment when a zone is formed. You can enter a market order at the exact moment demand and supply is created with the direction of the trend. It takes a lot of practice, patience and good reactions to pull the trigger.

You can also trade the same zone (touch trade or with PA) if you get a pullback to the fresh zone.

This may seem confusing initially but these are my standard trades these days. Usually 8 out 10 trades are using engulfing PA rather than zone pullbacks.

Actually right now I don't trust zones trades at all and always prefer to trade PA.
  • #6,126
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:28pm Apr 16, 2018 12:28pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I'm not always trading off zones. Look at the PA structure at very moment when a zone is formed. You can enter a market order at the exact moment demand and supply is created with the direction of the trend. It takes a lot of practice, patience and good reactions to pull the trigger. You can also trade the same zone (touch trade or with PA) if you get a pullback to the fresh zone. This may seem confusing initially but these are my standard trades these days. Usually 8 out 10 trades are using engulfing PA rather than zone pullbacks. Actually...
Ok, now I get you.
Would you mine to explain better your engulfing method please with some chart examples?
I heard from someone that you are very good on this king setups + S&D.
Cheers
  • #6,127
  • Edited 1:19pm Apr 16, 2018 12:46pm | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Ok, now I get you. Would you mine to explain better your engulfing method please with some chart examples? I heard from someone that you are very good on this king setups + S&D. Cheers
Here's a couple on EU. Most high quality zones have an engulfing base. Quite often a single high candle body with a strong move away.

Yellow boxes are engulfing, red arrows are retests after they became zones. You can get engulfing reversals and engulfing continuations that will eventually become zones.

I usually look at the candle body when forms and can already see that it will form a zone before the indicator prints it.

Not sure why I didn't trade this setup to be honest. Still a bit rusty after a break and being overly cautious.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 55 KB
  • #6,128
  • Apr 16, 2018 1:26pm Apr 16, 2018 1:26pm
Quote
Not sure why I didn't trade this setup to be honest. Still a bit rusty after a break and being overly cautious.

DXY wasn't moving much until the afternoon (my time is London) , I stayed away from EURUSD.
However, I am glad to have missed out on some trades today as if I had held on, other than GBPUSD , I would definitely been stopped out on the reversals.

Overly cautious is good
  • #6,129
  • Apr 16, 2018 1:38pm Apr 16, 2018 1:38pm
Quoting NevFX
{quote} DXY wasn't moving much until the afternoon (my time is London) , I stayed away from EURUSD. However, I am glad to have missed out on some trades today as if I had held on, other than GBPUSD , I would definitely been stopped out on the reversals. Overly cautious is good
Yep, GU was interesting. It's always harder to buy when a trend is getting long in the tooth and reversals plays become quite enticing.

Just from a S&D view, I can see the trend start to flip (red arrows) back to uptrend with fresh engulfing moves and supply chopped up.

I think we're going higher but now at an area where foul play can occur around this top.

I dunno, going from 10+ entries per day down to zero is very usual for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.PNG Size: 82 KB
  • #6,130
  • Apr 16, 2018 1:41pm Apr 16, 2018 1:41pm
there will definitely be a bunch of SL's above the weekly highs at 1.43455 , so maybe a push of 20-30 pips above that level.
I am going to sit out and wait on GU
  • #6,131
  • Apr 16, 2018 1:57pm Apr 16, 2018 1:57pm
Quoting NevFX
there will definitely be a bunch of SL's above the weekly highs at 1.43455 , so maybe a push of 20-30 pips above that level. I am going to sit out and wait on GU
I think from a market perspective there's probably way more people looking to short this top than buy it.

It's definitely a big area of liquidity so would surprised if we don't get a bearish reaction off it. My guess is a modest pull back and then another blast higher to really blow out the shorts.

It's not my kind of area to get involved either so will probably steer well clear of GU for now.
  • #6,132
  • Apr 16, 2018 2:20pm Apr 16, 2018 2:20pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I think from a market perspective there's probably way more people looking to short this top than buy it. It's definitely a big area of liquidity so would surprised if we don't get a bearish reaction off it. My guess is a modest pull back and then another blast higher to really blow out the shorts. It's not my kind of area to get involved either so will probably steer well clear of GU for now.
Agree with your analysises.
As you can see GBP index is the strongest one and the next fresh W SZ is far away (more than 600 pips).
After the break of current high and retrace back, GBP is the currency to buy.

On this particular pair GBP/USD there is a strong WDZ at 1.40 ish. I'll be looking to engage in buying it If price retrace back to it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP index weakly view 16-04-2018.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP index Daily view 16-04-2018.png Size: 65 KB
  • #6,133
  • Apr 17, 2018 12:57am Apr 17, 2018 12:57am
Quoting C-12
Actually right now I don't trust zones trades at all and always prefer to trade PA.
Ay up Neil. A lot of the zones, even the good looking ones will fail, which is why I think it's so important to read the PA off of them. It's a bit more of a boring existence but a lot less frustrating.
  • #6,134
  • Apr 17, 2018 7:57am Apr 17, 2018 7:57am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Here's a couple on EU. Most high quality zones have an engulfing base. Quite often a single high candle body with a strong move away. Yellow boxes are engulfing, red arrows are retests after they became zones. You can get engulfing reversals and engulfing continuations that will eventually become zones. I usually look at the candle body when forms and can already see that it will form a zone before the indicator prints it. Not sure why I didn't trade this setup to be honest. Still a bit rusty after a break and being overly cautious....
Hi C-12,
I don't really grasp the way you trade engulfings before the zone develops. On your chart there are many engulfings that failed. You need a few indications that the engulfings occur at the right place at the right time (the ones in the orange rectangles). Your are using higher tf analysis and trend direction but when you don't trust zones anymore what's more? Maybe support and resistance, trendlines and USDX but is that enough?
For example why is the engulfing in the third red rectangle not as good as the engulfing in your first orange rectangle when location doesn't matter.
Maybe I'm wrong but it seems that this engulfing indicates from your point of view the end of the corrective move and you would looking for longs now. Why don't you consider the follow up engulfings for a long trade? Okay the rectangles 4 and 5 developed during asian session what is not ideal but what about the sixth rectangle?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,135
  • Apr 17, 2018 7:59am Apr 17, 2018 7:59am
I took 2 trades today, both off strong zones:

1) Long USD-JPY - I scaled out 3 times and got 17 pips, 22 pips and 26 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-m30-trading-point-of-2.png Size: 60 KB





2) Short AUD-USD - I scaled out 3 times and got 10 pips, 14 pips and then 15 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-m15-trading-point-of.png Size: 65 KB
  • #6,136
  • Apr 17, 2018 10:19am Apr 17, 2018 10:19am
Quoting Fonzi
{quote} Hi C-12, I don't really grasp the way you trade engulfings before the zone develops. On your chart there are many engulfings that failed. You need a few indications that the engulfings occur at the right place at the right time (the ones in the orange rectangles). Your are using higher tf analysis and trend direction but when you don't trust zones anymore what's more? Maybe support and resistance, trendlines and USDX but is that enough? For example why is the engulfing in the third red rectangle not as good as the engulfing in your first...
Well you definitely want to avoid taking engulfing plays directly into opposing zones on the left. This should keep you out of trouble in most cases.

It's not that I don't trust zones completely, just cold trading them based on a touch is just not my thing. Of course zones work but just as many get sliced. I look at zones as more significant than S/R and trendlines. It's just added analysis that the market is looking at.

I think today was a good example of a H4 supply zone being hit with textbook M30 PA that formed mid London session. That was good for a 3:1 which is fine for a range play.

I was looking to buy PA around the yellow line. It came a bit late in the session so i probably would have avoided this action. Wasn't the kind of textbook setup (scruffy PA) and we're firmly ranging. Plus midzone supply above, you want some room.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 82 KB
  • #6,137
  • Apr 17, 2018 10:35am Apr 17, 2018 10:35am
DX was just the same situation but inverse. H4 zone, M30 engulfing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #6,138
  • Apr 17, 2018 10:47am Apr 17, 2018 10:47am
today i have set 2 MT4 and 17 pairs , one for H4 and second for M30 , let see from tomorrow , when i should be able to be expert like mr c-12

c-12 i want to ask some basic questions

1: how much pairs u focus daily ?
2:is it compulsary to watch dollar index ?
3: how much Stoplosses hit , becoz i have read in past when someone asked to u , how much is your accuracy u told 50 % , while i never say any loss in your history ,
it is humble request to u , plz also share ur losses , so that we will know that our mistakes and your mistakes are same or not ? Your stoplosses can teach us much better than profit
4: every time when u wrote engulfing , that is mean engulfing candle right ?
5:becoz it is purly manual system , so does it need to watch all pairs and TF ,s every second so that we not miss any trade ?suppose i have attached 17 pairs for H4 and 17 pairs for 30 mints , so i need to watch all pairs every second ? why i am using so much pairs ? becoz i have read in past u said it will take much time to make expert so i thought to use more pairs to get experience quickly
6:u told ur accuracy is 50 % that means if u entered 100 trades then only 50 trades went into profit ? then ur at breakeven after so much years ?
7:ur mostly trading EU , is EU enough on the basis of H4 TF to earn projected money weekly ? becoz in 24 candles of H4 may be 2-3 trades per week we can get right ?
thankx u so much for ur kindness
  • #6,139
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:06am Apr 17, 2018 11:06am
I'm not an expert since I'm not full time trading right now. It's a bit unknown how well I'd do right now. Unless I catch a setup between 7am and 8:30am GMT then there's no trading, just post market analysis. This is just one way I've been see things based on over 6 years of heavy screentime.

That could change in the future. My Missus wants to move abroad and I've got enough funds needed to do it.

Happy to share losses, it's usually just bad habit stuff like rushing in before PA has fully formed with a closed candle.

Anyway, 17 pairs is way too many. I like 2 pairs, GU and mostly EU. H4 and M30 is my favourite combo. If I find myself looking at M5 it's best to just turn the monitors off! It's very rare not to see a 3:1 + H4/M30 setup in a day unless it's a bank holiday or pre FOMC.
  • #6,140
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:17am Apr 17, 2018 11:17am
Quoting blackforex1
today i have set 2 MT4 and 17 pairs , one for H4 and second for M30
I prefer H4 and M30 next to each other on the same MT4 like charts posted above. This makes it very easy to analyse in a single field of view rather than constantly moving head left to right.

You can then set profiles for other pairs, as many as is comfortable.

I use a paid app called comfort keys to map the arrow keys to flicking through the pairs.
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