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MeMe Trades + Hedging System

  • #21
  • Apr 17, 2018 5:14am Apr 17, 2018 5:14am
If my first example is correct and I did not miss anything Im still thinking about a market condition that would make us lose money...

The only think I can imagine is a big super trend without pullbacks triggering a lot of LIMIT orders, but in this situation we would be hedget by the opposite first order and consecuent triggers over the LIMIT orders...

Tonight I will take some more random charts and explain them...

Feedback from the people that is reading would be really appreciated.

Thank you again Rockit for starting Developing this first version...
Building a Freedom All Time Return: 5,178.8%
  • #22
  • Apr 17, 2018 5:44am Apr 17, 2018 5:44am
Other parameters:

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  • #23
  • Apr 17, 2018 5:56am Apr 17, 2018 5:56am
Quoting J1mm
Thank you again Rockit for starting Developing this first version...
If you could summerize the rules in a compact way, like I have put in post #20, I think it would be helpful to code.
But first finalize the rules.
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  • #24
  • Apr 17, 2018 6:30am Apr 17, 2018 6:30am
Hello Rockit, I will do, let me spend some time this evening thinking about a summarized rules, I hope they will not be too much "subjective"...

Kind Regards,
Jimm
Building a Freedom All Time Return: 5,178.8%
  • #25
  • Apr 17, 2018 7:37am Apr 17, 2018 7:37am
Quoting J1mm
Hmmm... Please correct me if I'm wrong, maybe I'm missing something... At this point, BUY gets "canceled" let's say we close it at BE as it makes no sense to add BE+something because you will be taking pips from the bottom sell {image} + 100 from previous sell closed + 0 from doing a BE Close for the Buy orders (Starting BUY + LIMIT Buy triggered) - 70 For SELL opened after triggering first LIMIT Buy - Spreads? Talking about pips, I see here profit Then this oder situation (Assuming BE was not achieved by some pips...) + 100 from initial sell closed...

i think you are very confused.

there is no profit from it.

say you have tp of 100 and sl of 100.

enter buy at say at 50.00. and sell at same level.

price falls and you make loss of 100 on buy and profit of 100 on sell. you close the sell.

but the 2nd buy order triggers. you now have two buy trades open. you also open another sell.

but the price falls again by another 100 points. this time you have two buy trades (the first one and the second one), having a total loss of 200 points on the first buy (remember the first buy is still open from the beginning and now is at a loss of 100 + 100), and 100 points on the second buy. altogether at this point your total buy is at a loss of 300 points. you also opened a sell which is now at a profit of 100 points.

so, at this point what you have is a total loss on the buys of 300 points. and profit made on the sells of 100 and then 100 = 200.

you are still losing 100 points overall.

if the price continues to fall, and triggers your 3rd buy, and keeps on falling by another 100 points. your loss on the buys will be 1st buy 100+100+100, 2nd buy 100+100, 3rd buy 100. therefore total loss on buy trades = 600 points. total profit on the three sell trades 100 +100 + 100 = 300 points.

overall your account will be losing at 600 - 300 = 300 points !!

so how on earth you are going to turn this into profit i have no idea, especially if the price keeps on falling, your buy trades will have a far greater cumulative loss than the profit you will make on the sell trades.

this method will be a nightmare if the price keeps on just going one way, in the example above just falling during buy trades.

so not sure how you will then get out at break even. unless i have completely misunderstood your rules.
  • #26
  • Apr 17, 2018 9:31am Apr 17, 2018 9:31am
Quoting suneth2
{quote} I'm running this a live cent account ($18 ~1800) for test, since two days it's up 10% of account It running on EURUSD and USDCHF with default settings. do you suggest run this on all pairs of array or on selected pairs {image}


It profitable when ADR is below 90 pips a day (by default setting. There will be time when you see the ADR go beyond that. That time you need hedging mechanism or SL, since the nature of this EA open both positions. The hedging part is missing but you can see @rockit have done the hedging part. If you can develop, you may enhance it by all means.
  • #27
  • Apr 17, 2018 9:56am Apr 17, 2018 9:56am
Quoting J1mm
Hello guys, I would like to know if someone would be willing to code this, I think that could be profitable. Any feedback would be appreciated, even if you think this is crap! hahaha, but please give at least a proof Actually I don't know if there is an EA that actually works like this... So let me explain everything... Months ago I started to trade using an EA Developed by member jansb000 (100% based on Trade Made Simple Strat), I have been trading successfully as...
Maybe that's what you were looking for.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post10577862
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  • #28
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:29pm Apr 17, 2018 2:29pm
Hello whatfx, you are totally right, everything looks promising until you get hit by a strong trend, going back to Break even gets harder and harder as you build up the position...

Maybe, if we can think about a way to to identify that we "may" be in a trend and then stop building againts and instead with the trend it could be a good idea and improve the drawdown...

For example... EURUSD for the whole 2017/2018, at the beginning of 2018 (Jan) a VERY HUGE uptrend started not retracing until Month and a half latter...

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Building a Freedom All Time Return: 5,178.8%
  • #29
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:37pm Apr 17, 2018 2:37pm
Quoting rockit
{quote} If you could summerize the rules in a compact way, like I have put in post #20, I think it would be helpful to code. But first finalize the rules.
I will do, I think we have to find a way to filter building a position too much over a huge trend, this will minimise drawdown and prevent the account to be blew up...
Building a Freedom All Time Return: 5,178.8%
  • #30
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:42pm Apr 17, 2018 3:42pm
Quoting jansb000
{quote} Hi J1mm, congratulations on the new thread :-) Without maybe realising it, you already have the tool to test what would happen. Simply use the TMS EA with two different MagicNumbers. One for BUY and one for SELL. You can use the scripts that come with the EA to initiate the two trades and have one chart with the EA with MagicNumber1 and another with the same EA with MagicNumber2. I would suggest that you start the first trade when the price is going in one direction and only start the second trade when it's going in the opposite direction....
If you must trade this way then listen to this gentleman.
Read in between the price!!!
  • #31
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:54pm Apr 17, 2018 3:54pm
Quoting J1mm
Hello whatfx, you are totally right, everything looks promising until you get hit by a strong trend, going back to Break even gets harder and harder as you build up the position... Maybe, if we can think about a way to to identify that we "may" be in a trend and then stop building againts and instead with the trend it could be a good idea and improve the drawdown... For example... EURUSD for the whole 2017/2018, at the beginning of 2018 (Jan) a VERY HUGE uptrend started not retracing until Month and a half latter... {image}


I believe the system need to look seriously on the ADR. Perhaps by range. ADR start from 50 - 60 pips, 61 - 70 pips, so on.... You may test the data especially for EU on 2008 August and September. 2017, Jun/July/September if I remember that correctly.
  • #32
  • Apr 17, 2018 5:34pm Apr 17, 2018 5:34pm
Quoting J1mm
Hello whatfx, you are totally right, everything looks promising until you get hit by a strong trend, going back to Break even gets harder and harder as you build up the position... Maybe, if we can think about a way to to identify that we "may" be in a trend and then stop building againts and instead with the trend it could be a good idea and improve the drawdown... For example... EURUSD for the whole 2017/2018, at the beginning of 2018 (Jan) a VERY HUGE uptrend started not retracing until Month and a half latter... {image}

Quoting J1mm
{quote} I will do, I think we have to find a way to filter building a position too much over a huge trend, this will minimise drawdown and prevent the account to be blew up...

You need a 'safety valve' solution when you want to trade with multiple positions. You cannot allow too deep drawdowns in your trading account.
"Cut losses short" is what many would say but how to do is very hard therefore your system must do the cut loss task for you becasue you will never make that decision on your own.
Below is my live trading example.

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Thread link:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...43#post9909243
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #33
  • Apr 17, 2018 5:44pm Apr 17, 2018 5:44pm
Think of these by Mingary's The Monty Hall Problem applied to Trading.

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What should be your "safety valve" in your system design?
I posted this in the TMS thread between 2016 to 2017.

Mingary's backtesting example:
study closely the Balance and Equity, keep these two very close to each other. Never allow too deep floating drawdowns.

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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #34
  • Apr 17, 2018 7:11pm Apr 17, 2018 7:11pm
Quoting J1mm
Hello whatfx, you are totally right, everything looks promising until you get hit by a strong trend, going back to Break even gets harder and harder as you build up the position... Maybe, if we can think about a way to to identify that we "may" be in a trend and then stop building againts and instead with the trend it could be a good idea and improve the drawdown... For example... EURUSD for the whole 2017/2018, at the beginning of 2018 (Jan) a VERY HUGE uptrend started not retracing until Month and a half latter... {image}

well, that is your choice. but you cannot predict the market you see. just because a pair has been on an uptrend say for two years, does not mean it will stay in an uptrend. if the trend reverses, you will get burnt.

also, even trading with the trend could mean you might need to hold on to your positions for many weeks or months, just to break even.

there are many other ways of swing trading with the trend.

but there is no harm in testing your ideas, it could even work out for you..
  • #35
  • Apr 17, 2018 7:59pm Apr 17, 2018 7:59pm
Quoting rockit
{quote} I have not much of data to test with, but I think in general it works (proof of concept): {file} {image}
I tested EURUSD 01-01-2017 to 04-14-2018 with default settings
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Failure is not failure if you learn from it...
  • #36
  • Edited 10:33pm Apr 17, 2018 10:22pm | Edited 10:33pm
Quoting suneth2
{quote} I tested EURUSD 01-01-2017 to 04-14-2018 with default settings {image} {image}
There is a specific problem to testing this way: At the end of the testing interval, the tester does a hard cut-off, meaning: If there are open orders at the end of the interval, they will be closed by the tester, not by the strategy. Therefore always look in the log to see how many orders have been closed due to end of test. However, a stop-out is another thing of course.
Besides, the strategy at hand is not very good (unsurprisingly), it has no edge, if it had, everyone would use it as it is very simple. A way to give it edge is to place orders at support/resistence levels instead of random and fixed size intervals.
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  • #37
  • Apr 17, 2018 10:33pm Apr 17, 2018 10:33pm
I agree with you tester closed 25997 to 26146 orders at the end
Failure is not failure if you learn from it...
  • #38
  • Apr 18, 2018 7:04am Apr 18, 2018 7:04am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Think of these by Mingary's The Monty Hall Problem applied to Trading. {image} What should be your "safety valve" in your system design? I posted this in the TMS thread between 2016 to 2017. Mingary's backtesting example: study closely the Balance and Equity, keep these two very close to each other. Never allow too deep floating drawdowns. {image}
Thought-provoking.

I've read your posts on the safety valve and they seem to allude to maintaining close equity and balance. Any more hints? Which trades do you close first?
  • #39
  • Apr 20, 2018 6:42pm Apr 20, 2018 6:42pm
Quoting carddard
{quote} Thought-provoking. I've read your posts on the safety valve and they seem to allude to maintaining close equity and balance. Any more hints? Which trades do you close first?
Hint #1: When you trade with average down, you must limit the number of average down positions in one basket. You must have a 'cut loss' rule and a mechanism built in your trade manager because as the trader you are unlikely pull that trigger to 'cut-loss'.... very hard thing to do is to take that decision and accept the losses.


Hint #2: coming up ... be patient!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #40
  • Apr 20, 2018 9:14pm Apr 20, 2018 9:14pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hint #1: When you trade with average down, you must limit the number of average down positions in one basket. You must have a 'cut loss' rule and a mechanism built in your trade manager because as the trader you are unlikely pull that trigger to 'cut-loss'.... very hard thing to do is to take that decision and accept the losses. Hint #2: coming up ... be patient!
Hint 1 received well.

Looking forward to hint 2
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