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London session market profile preps and journal for DAX

  • #61
  • Apr 13, 2018 4:10am Apr 13, 2018 4:10am
Quoting BinChenUt
{quote} I agree with you. There is no intention for the market to auction much higher from here, because, like you have pointed out, there is simply not enough volume to push the market much higher. The market maker can only do some upthrusts and stop run at the edge of the ranges, and that's it. I am looking to take some short scalps.
that sudden surge up looked like a stop hunt now that you said it, for now no sign of bears must be careful.
...
  • #62
  • Apr 13, 2018 6:11am Apr 13, 2018 6:11am
This is what I missed when I was away for lunch.
A big drive to the upside due to short squeeze achieving 161.8 expansion target and daily R1 has turned support.
  • #63
  • Apr 14, 2018 5:09pm Apr 14, 2018 5:09pm
Quoting BinChenUt
This is what I missed when I was away for lunch. A big drive to the upside due to short squeeze achieving 161.8 expansion target and daily R1 has turned support.
You also missed the big drop when s&p finally touched its
hwb after weeks of trying
After some backing and filling the downturn will continue in full force
  • #64
  • Apr 15, 2018 4:08pm Apr 15, 2018 4:08pm
Quoting wbemsms
{quote} You also missed the big drop when s&p finally touched its hwb after weeks of trying After some backing and filling the downturn will continue in full force
Wbemsms,

You are right about the big drop. ES has had a bearish engulfing bar. It might be a start of the new bearish wave.
So far the damage is not yet done in DAX. But we will see how DAX is going to open next week.
  • #65
  • Apr 15, 2018 5:19pm Apr 15, 2018 5:19pm
Quoting BinChenUt
{quote} Wbemsms, You are right about the big drop. ES has had a bearish engulfing bar. It might be a start of the new bearish wave. So far the damage is not yet done in DAX. But we will see how DAX is going to open next week.
The backing and filling has begun
Trading such a big résistance on a friday is not food die continuation
Lets see what the pro's will do on tuesday
  • #66
  • Apr 16, 2018 10:45am Apr 16, 2018 10:45am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} that sudden surge up looked like a stop hunt now that you said it, for now no sign of bears must be careful.
Dax filled the 380 tpo hole i found here
Thank you keep them charts coming
Very helpfull
Thanks you
  • #67
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:59pm Apr 16, 2018 12:59pm
Quoting wbemsms
{quote} Dax filled the 380 tpo hole i found here Thank you keep them charts coming Very helpfull Thanks you
Great that you find this thread to be helpful.
Today is my papa day to take care of the kids. I will be back on action tomorrow.
  • #68
  • Apr 17, 2018 1:58am Apr 17, 2018 1:58am
DAX has retraced a part of the advance last week and filled a TPO hole around 12380. After all the strength formation has been maintained.
Hence my bias is still bullish and I am ready to buy pullback in the form of gap fill or fib retracement.

Yesterday's TPO profile has a poor structure which requires some repair. Hence the most likely scenario is to rotation within yesterday's range to repair charts before shooting higher.

Several key locations on my watch list:
VAL = 12423.5
VPOC = 12431

The VPOC is also where the gap is. Hence that is the prime location for me to build my long position.
Once the VAL being successfully tested, it is likely to cycle back to test the VAH which is at 12485.

The scenarios is my mind are:
1. Open test and drive -- test prior day VAL and shoot higher
2. Open test and fail -- test of the VAL failed, and it goes lower to run the prior day's low
3. Open test and rotation -- rotate back and forth between yesterday's value area.
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  • #69
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:43am Apr 17, 2018 2:43am
Volume transition at the 12425 level which is between prior day's VPOC and VAL.
I would expect bullish rotation from here.
But admittingly, it is not like to test and drive today because the order flow lacks the conviction and speed.
It is so much of a summer flow type of speed.
I would expect it to have some rotation at 12452.
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  • #70
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:49am Apr 17, 2018 2:49am
Well, it has traded right through.
I was wrong.
  • #71
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:20am Apr 17, 2018 3:20am
Quoting BinChenUt
Well, it has traded right through. I was wrong.
Scenario 1 was spot on
Read your post too late damn
  • #72
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:38am Apr 17, 2018 3:38am
DAX is ready to rotate from yesterday's VAH back into the value.
Our scenario 1 is spot on, like Wbemsms has pointed out.
I would like to see the TPO hole in today's profile to be repaired before moving any higher.
Because I don't see the confidence from the market to have a all out bullish trend day before NY open.
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  • #73
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:52am Apr 17, 2018 3:52am
Quoting BinChenUt
Well, it has traded right through. I was wrong.
we can wrong half the time and right half the time.
prediction or bias is a dangerous mindset.

I for instand was left out of that big hike 30minutes into London "thinking" it was a retracement only.

The reaction at each resistance obviously proved me wrong

Then again following along blindly can also be extremely dangerous without a proper mental roadmap to read between the lines, and its sneaky little moves.
...
  • #74
  • Apr 17, 2018 4:10am Apr 17, 2018 4:10am
After Dax ran out of the prior day's high, see where it has turned around?
Last Friday's VPOC.
The market maker has that liquidity pool in mind when he was running the high.
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  • #75
  • Apr 17, 2018 4:17am Apr 17, 2018 4:17am
so that was a good level to wait for, patiently ..., before entering a short.
  • #76
  • Apr 17, 2018 4:18am Apr 17, 2018 4:18am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} we can wrong half the time and right half the time. prediction or bias is a dangerous mindset. I for instand was left out of that big hike 30minutes into London "thinking" it was a retracement only. The reaction at each resistance obviously proved me wrong Then again following along blindly can also be extremely dangerous without a proper mental roadmap to read between the lines, and its sneaky little moves.
Indeed, trying to out guess the market is quite dangerous.
Especially, i was fixating my eyes on the small volume nodes built on yesterday. That is a formula for self destruction.
Always having a big picture in mind.

About the bias. Bias is not a trade recommendation. It is like a model, models are wrong, but it is a framework you use to interact with the outside world. The benefit is that you know exactly when you are wrong because you can measure it. The bias is the same. The bias is a hypothesis. There is a line in the sand indicating when the hypo stops working.

The call for the rotation from the prior day's VAH was a bad one because DAX is a such a stop running instrument that it would run at least one side of the range 80%+ of time. The inside value rotation should not be a valid scenario at all.
  • #77
  • Apr 17, 2018 4:20am Apr 17, 2018 4:20am
Quoting guidoisot
so that was a good level to wait for, patiently ..., before entering a short.
Patience and big picture view are the most crucial skill.
In the due course, just let go of those secondary setups and wait for the truly good one.
  • #78
  • Apr 17, 2018 4:26am Apr 17, 2018 4:26am
Quoting BinChenUt
{quote} Indeed, trying to out guess the market is quite dangerous. Especially, i was fixating my eyes on the small volume nodes built on yesterday. That is a formula for self destruction. Always having a big picture in mind. About the bias. Bias is not a trade recommendation. It is like a model, models are wrong, but it is a framework you use to interact with the outside world. The benefit is that you know exactly when you are wrong because you can measure it. The bias is the same. The bias is a hypothesis. There is a line in the sand indicating...
DAX can often give very misleading signals, so guessing like you said can instantly or gradually depending on your account size wipe it all off then again I also find that grabbing 4,5s if you're really precise is also very doable but of course you want to capture the big range or the main move of the day early at the open but you can also have the wrong big picture if that makes any sense, or the big picture can change. I constantly wonder what the heck I'm doing, but I'm too deep in to get out now
...
  • #79
  • Apr 17, 2018 5:15am Apr 17, 2018 5:15am
I agree with you that call the market in the guise of directional bias could be an egoistic thing and ego is bad for trading.
Yes there are a couple of instances when the directional bias was wrong or changed causing big draw down just like Friday.
But each instance has become the learning lesson to sharpen my skill.

Reading the intention of the market is like reading the chess board. It is a skill and it can be learned. I have found the directional bias has helped my trading big time. Before, I was react to every little bounce in the market. But now I am much more deliberate, i start to think where the market wants to drive the market. You have to agree that the market is not random at all, it is played by the market maker to trick you in a bad position and then run over you. It is on play again and again.

About the grabbing 5s. Actually my strategy solely relies on the fact that I have a precise entry so that I can have 5 - 8 points very quickly to pay for the position. Then I can sit in a trade for a long time because don't have any risk. So my answer to you is that the directional bias can be wrong, but i usually can still scalp some money even when the directional bias is wrong. Because I dictate myself to enter at the location that I can at least scalp a small target. In this mind set, the volume intraday on price is so useful that DAX reacts to volume as the trapped traders reacts to the exit door.
  • #80
  • Apr 17, 2018 8:49am Apr 17, 2018 8:49am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} DAX can often give very misleading signals, so guessing like you said can instantly or gradually depending on your account size wipe it all off then again I also find that grabbing 4,5s if you're really precise is also very doable but of course you want to capture the big range or the main move of the day early at the open but you can also have the wrong big picture if that makes any sense, or the big picture can change. I constantly wonder what the heck I'm doing, but I'm too deep in to get out now
I really appreciate the thought provoking question you have posted. This is what I am looking for to join a trading forum.
But I have also sensed that you are quite frustrated about trading DAX because you are speaking of a lot of negativity.

This is what I have found that most of the retail traders are looking for the big moves, but the biggest most profitable traders I have met in my life are the ones who is trading big positions on a small set of reliable setups for small initial targets.
What's paying off are not big moves, but the position size. Once you are able to trade with size, small targets are going to give you big returns. Consistency is the key here. If you are looking for big moves, you are not going to be very consistent. Aim small then you are going to miss small.
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