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Let's Trade Options

  • #15,461
  • Apr 13, 2018 12:50pm Apr 13, 2018 12:50pm
bot the Apr 20 NFLX $335/340/345 call fly for 30c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,462
  • Apr 13, 2018 1:35pm Apr 13, 2018 1:35pm
also filling some Apr18 SPY put spreads otm like $262/261.5 for 8c, just in case there's ME fireworks over the weekend...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,463
  • Apr 13, 2018 2:07pm Apr 13, 2018 2:07pm
One of the cool things about Nadex binaries is that because they're basically the Delta of a call option Gamma, Vega, and Theta really come into play. So Gamma ends up being basically the Delta of a binary. Sort of like the Delta of a Delta... anywho.. To take advantage of that I monitor the price across the different expiration times for the same strikes and then can adjust my strategy based on whatever the chart is doing and time of day. So going into the London close where the H/L of the day is usually set in with the brit pairs, I can confidently go with a shorter term ITM/ATM and not be at too much risk of price really taking off on me in the wrong direction. And then the greeks go all spartan with time decay and profits (losses) can come quick. Whereas the further out expiries might barely move at all. I use the mt4 dde feed and programmed black-scholes into excel to get the theoretical binary pricing and can find the best expire and strikes. My calcs are pretty close usually falling in between the nadex bid/ask. IV is the unknown in the formula so I just pull that down from investing.com and average out the IV for ATM's they have listed.

On the screenie below you can see that price is at 153.08 and then look at the strikes on either side of 153.00 going across.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...0Apr.%2013.gif
  • #15,464
  • Apr 13, 2018 3:30pm Apr 13, 2018 3:30pm
Quoting The Fool
filled Apr13 SPY bull vert calls $271/272 for 16c
a shame I let these go to all loss....were up a dime at one point....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,465
  • Apr 16, 2018 10:46am Apr 16, 2018 10:46am
Quoting The Fool
heavily bullish book making bank at around 10% per day this week. AA $55/$60 Apr20 bull vert calls a highlight, bought a few weeks back for 25c, now worth $1.40....trade war premise....yes I am still bullish and think the spoos will grind up thru earnings season and we will see new ATH's in Q2.
same tune different week...holding the AA bull vert calls, they ER Wed, I have a $2 tp on it and I will take it but I am likely going to close it before the ER

...looking for /ES to grind up 30+ pts this week
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,466
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:39pm Apr 16, 2018 12:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} same tune different week...holding the AA bull vert calls, they ER Wed, I have a $2 tp on it and I will take it but I am likely going to close it before the ER ...looking for /ES to grind up 30+ pts this week
AA $2 tp hit, I set that up to play thru the ER. 25c risk could get best case $4.75 on a massive spike above $60....or go to nil if the shares slide ... so no brainer close to get solid near 8bag...ABC...take the money and run
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,467
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:55pm Apr 16, 2018 12:55pm
Quoting The Fool
Bank stocks should be lifted by rising rates, so I am trying to fill a XLF call calendar, Apr20/27 $29 for 4 cents
I have a variety of bullish XLF spreads at $29 & $30 strikes and out to the May monthly...not looking too good but maybe we get a hot week and broader market drags up the banks to get a $29 close by Friday...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,468
  • Apr 16, 2018 1:37pm Apr 16, 2018 1:37pm
I have a bullish XLE spread looking good, entered about a month ago, Apr/May $75 calendar calls, entered for 26c, is worth $63c today.

What should I do? Maybe score a solid 3bag if XLE keeps going up to the Apr20 expiry?

Or hold the May18 long calls and see if XLE can keep grinding up towards $75 or higher?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,469
  • Apr 16, 2018 4:01pm Apr 16, 2018 4:01pm
Quoting The Fool
bot the Apr 20 NFLX $335/340/345 call fly for 30c
NFLX post ER up 6% and sitting around $326...if it'll grind up in a bull week to my hot zone I will be happy
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,470
  • Apr 17, 2018 10:57am Apr 17, 2018 10:57am
I have SPY $272 calendar calls, Apr20/23, in for 6c and worth about 22c now, hanging in for a steady grind north, so nice to be on the right side of the market...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,471
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:00am Apr 17, 2018 11:00am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}NFLX post ER up 6% and sitting around $326...if it'll grind up in a bull week to my hot zone I will be happy
NFLX nudging up to my bottom wing & my 30c fly is worth about 90c today.

flys and calendars want to be played right to the perfect finish at expiry, so I will hold on and cross fingers for $340 by Fri
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,472
  • Apr 17, 2018 12:45pm Apr 17, 2018 12:45pm
hey guys, I'm new to this thread and trade options as well. $SPY options are very liquid so I daytrade them.
Inserted Video
  • #15,473
  • Apr 17, 2018 1:27pm Apr 17, 2018 1:27pm
Hey TS. Not really on the same page with you re: dayttrading SPY. But since nobody else is here, feel free to go ahead and post your trade ideas and links to vids or whatever. After you have a certain (?) number of posts (I think) you can start your own thread, if you like. Cheers.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,474
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:53pm Apr 17, 2018 2:53pm
Quoting The Fool
I have SPY $272 calendar calls, Apr20/23, in for 6c and worth about 22c now, hanging in for a steady grind north, so nice to be on the right side of the market...
...awesome bullish day for US indices much like many we have seen these last months and years. But now I need a bit of ranging for this calendar to pay a buttload
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,475
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:56pm Apr 17, 2018 2:56pm
Quoting The Fool
I have a bullish XLE spread looking good, entered about a month ago, Apr/May $75 calendar calls, entered for 26c, is worth $63c today. What should I do? Maybe score a solid 3bag if XLE keeps going up to the Apr20 expiry? Or hold the May18 long calls and see if XLE can keep grinding up towards $75 or higher?
...holding on but I need more and I might be wise to get this money in the bank while it's there...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,476
  • Apr 17, 2018 2:59pm Apr 17, 2018 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have a variety of bullish XLF spreads at $29 & $30 strikes and out to the May monthly...not looking too good but maybe we get a hot week and broader market drags up the banks to get a $29 close by Friday...?
XLF flat while money pours into tech, I thot for sure XLF could grind back to $29 this week....too bad because I really piled into these cheap spreads...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,477
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:14pm Apr 17, 2018 3:14pm
Quoting The Fool
I have a bullish XLE spread looking good, entered about a month ago, Apr/May $75 calendar calls, entered for 26c, is worth $63c today. What should I do? Maybe score a solid 3bag if XLE keeps going up to the Apr20 expiry? Or hold the May18 long calls and see if XLE can keep grinding up towards $75 or higher?
...just closed it for 53c .. a double... with inventories out tomorrow I am not feeling lucky and just want to put cash in da bank.....ABC...

Of course, now watch XLE close the week dead nuts on $75....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,478
  • Apr 17, 2018 11:06pm Apr 17, 2018 11:06pm
Quoting The Fool
NFLX nudging up to my bottom wing & my 30c fly is worth about 90c today. flys and calendars want to be played right to the perfect finish at expiry, so I will hold on and cross fingers for $340 by Fri
LUCKY ME, RIGHT...???....well I just targeted a 10% gain on an ER pop, which got me to $340 - playing the fly allows me to capture range either side of that. 30c risk looks like it can net $1.40 or so with a good finish Friday...I'm hangin in and NFLX is gapping north. Realistically, if I start to see net 95c on Thurs I will have to grab cash
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-04-17_2059NFLX.png Size: 80 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,479
  • Apr 18, 2018 1:40pm Apr 18, 2018 1:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...just closed it for 53c .. a double... with inventories out tomorrow I am not feeling lucky and just want to put cash in da bank.....ABC... Of course, now watch XLE close the week dead nuts on $75....
XLE motoring up..water under the bridge...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #15,480
  • Apr 18, 2018 2:28pm Apr 18, 2018 2:28pm
hangin in....Thursday's child is full of woe...?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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