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Back to the Future – My Freewheeling Journal

  • #1,201
  • Edited 5:18am Mar 29, 2018 4:42am | Edited 5:18am
Dear Paul, I really don't know whether you were right or not. I just hope so!
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  • #1,202
  • Mar 29, 2018 4:55am Mar 29, 2018 4:55am
Dax m5 Thanks Mama.
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  • #1,203
  • Mar 31, 2018 12:05am Mar 31, 2018 12:05am
Back To the Future.
The last warning directly from a Great Forefather.
The Richard Schabacker's Course - 1937.

"The science of chart reading, however, is not as easy as the mere memorizing of certain patterns and pictures
and recalling what they generally forecast.
Any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns
and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points...
and, above all, the ability to weigh opposing indications against each other,
to appraise the entire picture in the light of its most minute and composite details
as well as in the recognition of any certain and memorized formula."

"Be skeptical of any apparently sure thing."

"[But] the reader may also be just as certain that none of those principles are guaranteed to be 100 per cent infallible.
We have been able to find, though sometimes with difficulty, exceptions to practically every formation, to practically every rule.
Furthermore, we know of no practical rule of stock charts or stock trading
which may not, under certain conditions and at certain times, have such exceptions.
By no means the least important aspect of successful chart reading and chart trading, therefore,
is the early detection of such exceptional cases, the almost intuitive, subconscious suspicion of certain formations
and, above all, the ability to avoid or limit loss on such exceptional situations."
"We have endeavored to suggest methods for attaining this happy state
but, in the last analysis, it comes generally from long study, from long experience and from long foresight;
and the greatest of these is the attitude which we are attempting to foster in these paragraphs, that of a healthy skepticism toward all rules,
a scholarly spirit of conservatism and humility in the face of a great and valuable science
and aconservative habit of action in all practical market trading."

Happy study and happy trading.
  • #1,204
  • Edited 6:52am Apr 7, 2018 2:21am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting Piquant
I think the root of the problem is that ... I haven't clearly defined the distinction between V sell at the rim and V that transitions into a buy (yes V sell can turn into a buy !! how frustrating ...
As I told above (to all the Readers): this question unsolved is, unfortunately, the ABC of Trading!

1) Don't change the classic, traditional “Nomenclature/Terminology” otherwise your risk to miss the road, the compass and the point!

We are talking about Impulse and Correction.
We are are talking about Move (Advance/Decline) and Pull Back (Retrace/Retracement).
Action and Reaction (Newton's first law: the law of Inertia).
Trend-Continuation and Trend-Reverse.

2) It's all about Support and Resistance... and your ROE in/at those areas.

Rules of Engagement (ROE) are the internal rules or directives among military forces (including individuals)
that define the circumstances, conditions, degree, and manner in which the use of force, or actions ... may be applied.
They provide authorization for and/or limits on... the use of force and the employment of certain specific capabilities.

3) All the wannabes risk to miss/misunderstand the main point: get these terms in the proper way!

Strategy – the Rules: what we are, what we want and what we do. These are the Pre-Planned Sequences!
Tactics – the Adaptation of those (pre-planned/pre-determined) rules to the Terrain we are facing in the Now.
Extemporaneous Response – necessary variable because we may be wrong or market can always changes its/her ideas or the unexpected happens.
(I proposed this issue in many of my YouTube music videos: what does one need to be able to improvise?
Improvisation is the State of Art... the perfect handling of the Rules!)

4) The correct approach is and remain: “Facts and not opinions!”
When a Trend starts, establishes itself, continues, ends and reverses... in clear, factual pre-planned rules!

5) OODA is the answer. In each moment in the Now! Quicker and quicker loops of OODA!

That's all... and good fortune.
I try to learn from Ed Seykota: I don't waste my time trying to predict a non-exiting future!
As Yogi Berra used to say (ROFL ) — 'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.'

You have to overcome the MOTH phase by yourself. I can say just one thing:
“ Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing.”


P.S. To succeed despite the challenges we must plan, solve, recalculate, refocus, and think again.
Then reanalyse our plan, redirect our plan, and think again.
Repeat this process (on correct and efficient bases...) and persevere until the goal is accomplished.
  • #1,205
  • Edited 4:16am Apr 7, 2018 2:22am | Edited 4:16am
One week of DAX m5... with some (just some!) significant level on it.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 7_04_18 9.01 mt4 DAX one week.JPG Size: 197 KB
  • #1,206
  • Edited 2:59am Apr 7, 2018 2:46am | Edited 2:59am
Here are some reasons why traders lose... with a bit of irony, in the daily tragedy:

- doing the right thing (but running into timing issues);
- doing the wrong thing (fighting evident flows);
- because we were unlucky (rogue spike: luck has a role in trading, it's true... but luck helps the prepared!);
- because we have no idea what we are doing (experience issues).

We want to avoid getting stopped out for the reasons 2 and 4.
If we can eliminate obvious mistakes and understand why we are losing, then at least we’re losing intelligently.
This is already a big step ahead of many traders: especially those who don't know why they are losing in the first place.

Remember the sad truth: not all can be winners in the Market.
Everyday 90% of the Retail Traders are on the wrong side of the market. Full Stop.
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  • #1,207
  • Apr 7, 2018 4:01am Apr 7, 2018 4:01am
One of the most recurring examples in the fti's teachings (TAF thread – Technical Analysis Fallacy, here on FF) is the Air-Combat.
In my opinion, readers do not always understand the depth and complexity of this excellent metaphor.

Fti loves the Blue Angels...
the United States Navy's flight demonstration squadron, with aviators from the Navy and Marines.

fti – TAF #15005
Precision and Agility and Safety and Skilful minds during high G manoeuvres. Ability to adjust to and focus and recover in difficult situations...
During difficult ops and dogfights, like in trading, only 2 persons are present. You and God.
PS: know your limits, you can try do this in a Spitfire. Some had. Yeah, everybody thinks they can do it without the experience.
Here's the flight plans and a Hornet, Geronimo.

fti – TAF #15054
Get it right, there is no secret, only mindset.
All know, but doing and knowing is 2 different things.
Like I said before, I can give you the flight plans and a Hornet. But you'll probably splash on taxi.
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  • #1,208
  • Apr 8, 2018 11:25pm Apr 8, 2018 11:25pm
Post #1208
The same, identical Concepts as in my previous post #4.
In between: 61 pages of nothingness...?
Yes: weird heaps of points milked from the Market. And an endless procession of nothingness,
that is what I guess the Readers think.

I could be wrong,
but I believe there is only one other thread in all FF that has taken this Principles as religiously as I do.
Just another one! Only one. Not bad.
Poor Dow. (Charles Henry Dow, 1851-1902... The Great Founding Father!)
Poor Jupiter.
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  • #1,209
  • Edited Apr 9, 2018 12:17am Apr 8, 2018 11:46pm | Edited Apr 9, 2018 12:17am
OK.
I'll try to explain my feelings. Not an easy task. And I'm not searching for indulgence and compliance.

There is this conflict in me...
I hate the boredom and the loneliness of this inhuman/superhuman business.
I discovered that I trade infinitely better when I'm trading live, under the stress and the pressure of an audience judging my moves and responses.
I get easily in “The Zone”... and I stay there for hours.
With sharpen senses and acute reactions. Perfect in discipline and always with a clear view, strategical and tactical.
I'm - in equilibrated combination – courageous and extremely respectful.
The benefit to my profitability is immense.

I don't know why this happens... sense of responsibility, I believe!
For sure not “Primadonna Syndrome”, “Searching for Adoration” or “Massaging My Ego”.
My sensations and feelings clearly exclude those occurrences.
I'm not that kind of man.


At the same time I must confess that I detest the FF as “Complex System”!
Interest... and not intellectual challenge. (Yes, OK... we are all here for the money, me too!)
Ego and exhibitionism... and not confrontation and debate at all. (Yes I had some nice PM but poor results on the pages)
Grabbing something from each other... and not collaboration.
Ignorance, arrogance and aggressivity everywhere.
And this intolerable thing of losses and rescue discussions... rescue and losses!!! And now even the suicide thing.

Last but not least... I feel the weight of my elementary English.

So what?
Not easy.
I want to go but I need to stay.
I need to stay but I am going too much into depth. (I don't want to teach but, actually, I'm teaching...)
On the other hand, no place to go!
Dongsky has gone.
Deltaone has gone.
Cat closed his major threads.
Fti is still missing.
Moreover the fact that I'm not in synch with the rest... (I saw two interesting attempts... and one is already dead at page 2)

And yes, recently I'm getting more and more perplexed...
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  • #1,210
  • Edited Apr 9, 2018 12:27am Apr 8, 2018 11:49pm | Edited Apr 9, 2018 12:27am
The Reality and its Representation.
Knowledge and Beliefs: the mind as a "Generator of Representations".

N.B. If you are too busy or too lazy, please, do not read this post: it will be the top of my boredom and nothingness!


George Soros said: - “Social phenomena have thinking participants who base their decisions on imperfect knowledge.“
The following are some of my personal meditations on the matter.

“Thought” is a mental process which allows an individual to “model” the world,
and so to deal with it effectively according to their goals, plans, ends and desires.
(Words referring to similar concepts and processes include: cognition, idea, and imagination.)
“Thinking” involves the cerebral manipulation of information, as when we form concepts, engage in problem solving, reasoning and making decisions.
“Thinking” is a higher cognitive function and “the Analysis of Thinking Processes” is part of cognitive psychology.

To operate effectively in “a setting containing other agents”,
an agent must, in addition to its knowledge about the physical features of that specific world/environment/situation,
consider its knowledge about other agent’s knowledge.

Philosophers have been concerned with Epistemology, the Study of Knowledge, for thousands of years, starting from the great Indian thinkers.
The focus of much of their analysis was on fundamental questions about the nature of knowledge:
What can be known? When does someone know something? How does knowledge relate to truth and to belief?

“Theory of Mind” is the ability to attribute mental states—beliefs, intents, desires, emotions, knowledge, etc.—to oneself, and to others,
and to understand that others have beliefs, desires, intentions, and perspectives that are different from one's own.
Theory of Mind is crucial for everyday social interactions and is used when analysing, judging, and inferring others' behaviours.

Theory of Mind allows one to attribute thoughts, desires, and intentions to others,
to predict or explain their actions, and to posit their intentions.
As originally defined...
it enables one to understand that mental states can be the cause of—and thus be used to explain and (YES!) predict—the behaviour of others.

One of the most important milestones in theory of mind development is gaining the ability to attribute false belief:
that is, to recognize that others can have beliefs about the world that are different and often diverging.
To do this, it is suggested, one must understand:
- how knowledge is formed,
- that people's beliefs are based on their knowledge,
- that mental states can differ from reality, and
- that people's behaviour can be predicted by their mental states.

What we accept as being knowledge... is actually merely belief with a certain degree of perceived certainty.
I say perceived certainty, as Popper argued that it holds no actual certainty value at all;
it can merely be perceived as propositions that have consecutively been corroborated by evidence.
But… only one observation that contradicts such a proposition, believed to be knowledge, could be enough to falsify it.

In any case Knowledge requires a sort of external evidence... true and justified.
A belief is an internal thought or memory which exists – just and only - in one's mind.

Broadly speaking, knowledge is objective truth (particular or universal) while belief is subjective truth.
That is, knowledge is typically thought to be that which is true independent of circumstance; it is universally true (non-contingent).
Belief, however, is an idea or concept which is held as true to the individual who holds it, and not necessarily to anyone (or everyone) else.

Quick conclusion and a great territory for the Readers to explore: why the “Uncertainty” on Markets?
George Soros, again:
“...people... base their decisions not on knowledge
but... on an inherently biased and (to greater or lesser extent) distorted interpretation of reality.
Their lack of perfect knowledge or fallibility introduces an element of indeterminacy into the course of events
that is absent when the events relate to the behaviour of inanimate objects.
The resulting uncertainty hinders the social sciences in producing laws similar to Newton’s physics.”

If I want to buy I need someone who is willing to sell.
To have a tradable Market we necessarily need different positions.
To make money successful operators need someone's ignorance.
As Livermore said: the suckers change but not the nature of the game.

Goodbye.
See you on the battlefield. I'm out there aiming at your stop loss.
  • #1,211
  • Apr 8, 2018 11:52pm Apr 8, 2018 11:52pm
Knowledge is power.
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  • #1,212
  • Apr 9, 2018 1:56am Apr 9, 2018 1:56am
been trying "feel" the pulse while keeping the mental roadmap in the background, at first I thought this was a sell but since Frankie I have been diligently following candle after candle I may be wrong but this doesn't feel like a sell although it might have shot up this high looks somewhat similar to last fridays development just around London open I mistook it as a sell it keeps finding support somehow and candles itself don't look bearish I could be wrong.
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  • #1,213
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:23am Apr 9, 2018 2:23am
Quoting Piquant
candles itself don't look bearish
Watch out...
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  • #1,214
  • Apr 9, 2018 2:26am Apr 9, 2018 2:26am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Watch out... {image}
I took note of that !!
Thank you !! Franco

Finally starting to see support and resistance as it should be seen as an objective knowledge (epistemology I read it) instead of mere belief my own self constructed subjective level.

Too bad I got out too early....
But it's a progress.

Good trading (I'm sure you're already doing your 100% in the zone grabbing every tick with the trend)
...
  • #1,215
  • Edited 3:38am Apr 9, 2018 2:39am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting Jupiter
See you on the battlefield. I'm out there aiming at your stop loss.
“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change,
but Wall Street never changes because human nature never changes.”
Jesse Livermore

Stupid Retailers... they always want to change the Trend in the wrong place!
  • #1,216
  • Edited 5:59am Apr 9, 2018 3:37am | Edited 5:59am
Are you OK?
Did you all take the trade?
Good.
Now you feel like glorious warriors, don't you?

Yes... The sad story of the Jupiter's "Trading Signal Service"!
  • #1,217
  • Edited 6:00am Apr 9, 2018 4:35am | Edited 6:00am
Know yourself. (We always see what we want to see... and the reality could be very, very different.)
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  • #1,218
  • Apr 10, 2018 2:47am Apr 10, 2018 2:47am
Quoting Jupiter
Are you OK? Did you all take the trade? Good. Now you feel like glorious warriors, don't you? Yes... The sad story of the Jupiter's "Trading Signal Service"!
If that was directed at me <No I don't feel like a warrior at all, I still constantly feel bit of anxiety not as bad as before I try to follow the pulse and take everything candle by candle reaction along areas of interest support and interest> in other words I have become much more humble by simply trying my best to follow her lead it's not easy don't think it'll ever become too easy to the point where I just click after a few seconds of quick glance that would be ego taking over - never a good situation.

At last I hope I didn't offend you, and I can't leave without saying how grateful I am for everything you've written on these pages. I am truly thankful
...
  • #1,219
  • Apr 10, 2018 3:28am Apr 10, 2018 3:28am
1° DAX Trade of this morning. BUYER! I WAS A BULL! (view in m5)
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  • #1,220
  • Edited 3:52am Apr 10, 2018 3:29am | Edited 3:52am
Chopping wood and carrying water.
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