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  • #81
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:27pm Apr 9, 2018 6:27pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} That is a interesting theory. I can understand your mode of thinking. In the attached photo is when the CHF dropped in January 2015 killed many traders as well as brokers around the world when the the Swiss decided to unpeg the Franc from the Euro. As you can see, the previous 5 and half months was a nice up trend. Now before that drop, it looks like price may have been petering out but of course hind site is 20/20. While I have no idea how you trade, from my experience it seems at that point and time you would either be long or not in at...
Trading is based on the odds, and each trading method has weak points and strength. This is a weak point in this method, and it also has a lot of strengths ... Perhaps this method can improve by putting the SL twice the logical level in anticipation of such events.
There is Light at the End of the Tunnel.
  • #82
  • Apr 9, 2018 8:44pm Apr 9, 2018 8:44pm
Quoting Ali.J
{quote} Trading is based on the odds, and each trading method has weak points and strength. This is a weak point in this method, and it also has a lot of strengths ... Perhaps this method can improve by putting the SL twice the logical level in anticipation of such events.
This is not a weak point, this is a fundamental flaw.

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #83
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:31pm Apr 9, 2018 9:31pm
Quoting Ali.J
{quote} Trading is based on the odds, and each trading method has weak points and strength. This is a weak point in this method, and it also has a lot of strengths ... Perhaps this method can improve by putting the SL twice the logical level in anticipation of such events.
If you trade based on flipping a coin or throwing darts to trade then yes you are trading "based on the odds". However if you are trading according to a solid strategy (which I suggest should be based fundamentally on market structure) then "the odds" have little to do with successful trading.
  • #84
  • Apr 9, 2018 10:10pm Apr 9, 2018 10:10pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} (which I suggest should be based fundamentally on market structure) .
Winston Reed
Hi
Can you tell us what you mean by this "Market Structure" ... please
There is Light at the End of the Tunnel.
  • #85
  • Apr 10, 2018 1:47am Apr 10, 2018 1:47am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} That is a interesting theory. I can understand your mode of thinking. In the attached photo is when the CHF dropped in January 2015 killed many traders as well as brokers around the world when the the Swiss decided to unpeg the Franc from the Euro. As you can see, the previous 5 and half months was a nice up trend. Now before that drop, it looks like price may have been petering out but of course hind site is 20/20. While I have no idea how you trade, from my experience it seems at that point and time you would either be long or not in at...
It is more interesting to know if ANY SL had ever worked at that time? Why I think they did not?

Do you know how much was the spread at that time? Even if you managed to open a sell trade, which is quite unlikely, SL would have been immediately hit. At brexit there were 150-250 pips spreads when the event have started.

To answer your question, luck would determine it for me. I now trade m15 as h4. Downsizing it now of trading m5 like h4 and would hopefully come down to m1 as h4. Whatever the last direction, I jump on it. If the movement, just before the event was going up for the last 4+ hours, I would suck it big time. If it was ranging for the last 4 hours it would depend which side was last. If it was going down for the last 4 hours prior the event, I would have been at profit. So, it is luck who determines those kind of situations.

I remember I live traded in the summer of 2015 the gbpjpy when it did drop 700-800 pips for few hours. The initial first drop has fast, maybe 400-500 pips for minutes. I made a little over 1k of profit, when I should have made 5k maybe? Slippage and spread sky rocketed, but I still got out of it, as I follow the price and the gamble for me is only at events like the one mentioned by you.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #86
  • Apr 10, 2018 2:28am Apr 10, 2018 2:28am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} It is more interesting to know if ANY SL had ever worked at that time? Why I think they did not? Do you know how much was the spread at that time? Even if you managed to open a sell trade, which is quite unlikely, SL would have been immediately hit. At brexit there were 150-250 pips spreads when the event have started. To answer your question, luck would determine it for me. I now trade m15 as h4. Downsizing it now of trading m5 like h4 and would hopefully come down to m1 as h4. Whatever the last direction, I jump on it. If the movement,...
I myself could never trade like that. But if it works for you, great. I believe that nobody has the right to tell anyone they are trading wrong AS LONG they are profitable. I use stops/ I would never trade without them. Stops and manual trailing stops are part of my money management plan. There is no wrong way to trade as long as you understand what you are doing and are profitable. Why do think there are so many different ways to trade out there.

I myself never find spreads to be a issue, of course I stay away from news times and trade higher time-frames so small fluctuations in spread are easily absorbed.

Also, just to say that I was actually long at the time of the CHF drop. My stop-loss was honored by my broker (Oanda FXTrade). Not only was it honored but the profit I made on that trade was correctly added to my balance, minus half-spread , which was rather high but that is because of liquidity at the time it happened, and interest of course.

Happy Trading

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #87
  • Apr 10, 2018 2:50am Apr 10, 2018 2:50am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} There is no wrong way to trade as long as you understand what you are doing and are profitable. Why do think there are so many different ways to trade out there.
At successful traders being 4 out of 10,000 and losers being the rest 9,996 traders, there must be something wrong with the SLs, I suppose. But lets respect our different ways of views.
Quote
I myself never find spreads to be a issue, of course I stay away from news times and trade higher time-frames so small fluctuations in spread are easily absorbed.
Same here, except I jump on the news. Having big issues with the spread as an expense when go down to lower time frames like h1 and below. Dying to learn how to trade M1 as M1 and M5 as M5, not both as H4. H4 filters the noise and delivers distances where spread does not bother me, but keeps me away from day trading...
Quote
Also, just to say that I was actually long at the time of the CHF drop. My stop-loss was honored by my broker (Oanda FXTrade). Not only was it honored but the profit I made on that trade was correctly added to my balance, minus half-spread , which was rather high but that is because of liquidity at the time it happened, and interest of course. Happy Trading -Ric
I do not get that part, but anyway. Do not want to enter into fights. If you did good at that time, probably you deserved it.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #88
  • Last Post: Apr 10, 2018 7:07am Apr 10, 2018 7:07am
Quoting Ali.J
{quote} Winston Reed Hi Can you tell us what you mean by this "Market Structure" ... please
There are certainly different paradigms to explain market structure. Most basic is the fact that markets move in swings or waves on every time frame. The swings occur on a bar level, minor level and major level. This is not to be confused with multi-time frame analysis as I do not believe in MTF analysis. Swings can be mapped using various tools such as Andrew's Pitchforks although using this tool is not absolutely necessary. There are different ways of using lines whether horizontal or diagonal to assist with this mapping. However the lines only help determine market direction. I never trade the lines. The market also contracts and expands as it swings. Finally it is the reaction of price to structure (test, retest, etc. etc.) that assists one in determining when and where to trade. Finally it is price action or the specific characteristics of the bars at a specific location that often provides a trading opportunity.

Most traders struggling to be profitable have not taken the time to truly understand market structure. Instead many are using overly simplistic occurrences in the market or indicators to tell them when to trade.

I've been trading for a mere 10 years which in reality is not very long. I have done it all and not until I studied market structure did I finally arrive at an understanding of the market that now allows me to trade very specifically. However it has taken 2 years of studying to understand the market the way I now understand it and it would be impossible to condense that in this post.

I trade 1 minute charts right now because it fits the time constraints I currently live with.
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