Set and Forget

The first month of the year has been a positive month, with a 2.2% gain in equity overall.

Given that the MyFXBook chart is inaccurate, and Oanda have now set up the v20 accounts with performance tracking, I shall include the Oanda P&L Graph in the posts.

These last two weeks have been very busy, so I've missed the regular weekly updates. I did however take screen shots from MyFXBook to keep track. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the graph is becoming increasingly worse (for example, I'm on the weekend I was sitting at 3.75% drawdown, which is reflected in the figures, - those are accurate - but not in the equity line, which is showing almost no DD)

At any rate....

Week ending 03 Feb, we were down 0.75% for the week. 9 orders were placed, all taken, and we had 8 TP's hit. A good result, but the rise in the CHF, especially against the CAD, meant we were down overall. Drawdown was sitting at 3%.

For the week just gone, we were just in the black, but it was less then 0.1% rise. We had 11 orders taken, with 7 TPs hit. The drop in Silver against the JPY negated the profits taken in other currencies.

This weekend I took another 6 trades. That means I currently have 13 positions open (15 trades in total, with 2 trades each on CADCHF and Silver JPY), with the oldest trade being CADCHF from 10Jan.

Current drawdown is 3.75%, very manageable, however these last two weeks have seen the annualised IRR for 2018 drop to around 12%. IRR for the last 12 months is now around the 28% mark. Hoping for a good end to Febuary!

looking good Steve! Right now will be, in the future looking back, just a blip on your ever-increasing equity curve.

Cheers Dave,

February is proving to be a more challenging month, and looks like it will be a losing month all up. But thats to be expected from time to time, and now that my TP targets have increased I know that drawdown at some point could possibly get as high as 20% or over - so I'm prepared for that (currently at 6.25%, which has been the highest for quite a while now)

In the last 12 months I had 9 winning months and 3 losing months, at an average of 2.74% gain per month. That's better than the bank and a lot of other good investments out there. However, I would like to see how this system performs over a 7-8 year period though.

How is everything going with you?

For week end 17Feb (busy time at work so a bit slow on the update)

Not the best week, with a drop in equity of 2.3%, one of highest, if not the highest, losing weeks to date. That actually brings the drop in equity for the month to date to over 3.1%, the worst month since I started this system. Hopefully in what remains of the month I can recover some of that loss, however I know there will be losing months.

6 trades were taken last week, with only 3 TPs hit, below the target of 5. Drawdown has increased to 6.4%, which is the highest it has been in months. IRR over the last 12 months is down to 22%. That's not a bad yearly return, but under the minimum 30% target. For 2018, I am down 1.0%

Margin used is sitting around 18% of NAV.

Hi Steve,

Trading is going well, thanks for asking. Been focusing my time finding and trading simple H-L-C patterns that allow me to set trades at specific times of the week and then walk away; a fixed stop loss and take profit, unique for each of the 7 majors and 22 cross pairs, is used. I'm risking <1% per trade, so this allows me to "set & forget". I'm forward testing now on a small live account.

Week ending 24Feb18

A small gain in equity this week of approximately 0.6%. We had 6 TPs hit, which was good, but the drop in the AUD and the CAD negated most of those profits.

For the month, with just a few days left, we are currently showing a 2.5% loss, and year to date we are down about 0.5%. But then we knew we wouldn't be winning every month!

Unsure why the Balance line is showing a small dip at the end, as I haven't closed out any trades in loss this week (not that the Balance line concerns me), and the equity line is showing a drop as well.... still hunting for a more accurate visual representation.

Drawdown is at 6.3%, and IRR over the last 12months is 23.2%

Week ending 03Mar18

Another week with a big drop in equity, heaviest week by so since I started with this method mid-2106. About a 3.8% drop, which has increased drawdown to 10.2%, the highest it has ever been (although given the increases in lot size I have implemented, I do expect it to reach 15% -20% from time to time)

That also meant February was a losing month with a decrease in equity of 3.1%. So also worse month so far. Again, though, some months will be losing months.

However, I have had a 2.9% drop in equity month to date for March. So not very impressed with that. But then, we know there will be some roller coaster rides, and I'm just going to stick with the game plan.

With those last 2 days last week losing so much in equity, that means annualised IRR since April last year is down to 17% p.a. Acceptable return, but the target is 30%+.

Drawdown is sitting at 10.2%, as I mentioned, so comfortable with that although I would prefer 5% or lower.

6 orders placed last week, with only 4 taken. 3 TP's hit. And only 2 orders placed this week (both taken). 13 positions open in total (2 trades each on CADCHF and SilverJPY. Margin used is about 24% of NAV, which is the highest I can recall.

So it will be a quiet few weeks by the looks of things, as I won't be able to open more positions until some of the current ones close. To some extent, a self-regulating safety feature of the system which limits exposure.

Let's see what this week brings!

Note: 2nd chart showing more accurate drawdown situation (equity to balance line difference) from Feb17.

Week ending 10Mar18

A very good week this week, with a 4.2% gain in equity. This leaves me ahead about 1% for the month, and just over BE for the YTD. Only 2 orders taken, and 3 TPs hit, so not a lot of activity, but some good recovery in equity.

The chart doesn't seem to reflect this well, as the TPs were taken a few days ago so no points to plot that with.

Drawdown has come back below 7%. Margin used is approx. 18% of NAV.

Again, it looks like activity will be minimal this week too, probably only 2-3 orders placed. Currently 12 trades open (still 2 on CADCHF and SilverJPY), the oldest being CADCHF from Jan10.

March is proving to be a month of fluctuations.

Week wending 17Mar. After a good week (+4.2%) the previous week, we had a loss of 6.2% this week and now we are showing a drop in equity of just over 5% MTD. And importantly, drawdown is now at 13.2%, which is the highest since I have started using this system. So a little challenging, but still within the expected parameters, and it also helps me to keep my feet on the ground and not get too excited about the profits made to date. In fact, this is a good test of the "system".

7 orders placed last week, all 7 taken. 5 TPs hit, so right on target with that. As I'm a few days behind writing this weekly update, I can't see the figure now but from memory I got up to about 30% Margin Used of NAV

The graph is a little exaggerated, but more or less shows the current position.

I think the downward movement in AUD and CAD is due for a bit of a rebound, as recent selling pressure has been high (and if fact this current week is showing that as I write).

IRR over the last 12 months (from 01Apr17) is currently 12%. This is the lowest return to date for any annulaised period, , although still a healthy return for a "bad" 12 months.

Week ending 24Mar18

A better this this week, with a 3.6% gain in equity. 7 orders placed, 5 taken. 6 TPs hit, so above target. Mid week we were up about 7% for the week, but the rebound in AUD was short lived.

Still in negative for the month, at around -1.8%, and YTD still down approx -2.7%. Drawdown has improved slightly, now sitting at 11%. Margin used is currently just over 22%.

Annualised IRR for the last 12 months is 17% - acceptable. although under the 30% p.a. target.

Week ending 31Mar18

A good week, with a gain in equity a little over 1.7%. There were 6 orders placed, all taken, and 5 TPs hit.

That means for the month we came out at around break even (about 0.05% down, to be more accurate, so I will be including that as a losing month).

Drawdown is currently sitting just under 10%. On Equity, YTD for the first three months we are showing a small loss, just on 1%. The IRR for the last 12 months, from 01April17, is 19.3%, so pleasing but still under target. It hasn't been a great start to 2018, but not every month is going to show a profit. Obviously we are in this for the long term.



What I am doing though is increasing my funds. However, I won't be adding funds to my broker account. I have set up a separate bank account here in NZ and will keep the funds there. The difficulty with this is my broker account is in Australia and of course in AUD. So fluctations in the AUDNZD rate will also have a bearing on the account gains/losses. The reason for this is i) as I mentioned previously A$20,000, at this stage anyway, is the limit to where I feel comfortable at having funds with a broker, and ii) as I keep growing the account, by keeping the funds here in NZ not only is there less risk, but also eliminates transaction fees, currency risk etc. The tricky bit is tying it all in together.

So, with the start of the new financial year:

Hi Xeniz,

I have somehow just discovered your thread now.

I find it really excelent, thank you very much.

Have a good day,
Cheers,
J-F

Thanks J-F,

Basically the thread is just my journal, however I try to make it as consistent and as honest as possible so that others can see how much I make or lose, and know that it is real. Making 10% on $10,000 is not comparable to making 20% on $100, for example, and most people hide their actual $ figures.

Hope you are trading well!

X.

Week ending 07Apr18

A phenomenal week this week, with an increase in equity in the AUD account of 5.6% for the week. 6 orders placed, 5 taken. 8 TPs hit, and we had the two CADJPY trades closed at BE level.

Drawdown on the account has dropped to under 6%, and Margin used is a little over 18% of Nav. There are currently 8 positions open, with 2 trades on 4 different pairs (for a total of 12 open trades)

Equity gain is now around 4.5% for the month to date, and IRR for the last 12months on this account is now back up to 27.9%. So going well!



Looking at the currency-adjusted figures (now that I have the NZD account open), there has been a further drop in the AUDNZD this week, and overall it is down to 1.0555 from 1.1000 on 01Jan. That equates to over a 4% drop in the AUDNZD rate so far this year, which impacts on the NZD equivalent in the account (basically negating the gains in the AUD to date). The faster I can increase the NZD portion of the account, so it has a greater weighting, the sooner the currency fluctuations will become less noticeable for the equity gain/losses overall.

I completely agree with you.
Your thread appears very clear, consistant and honest (I would use the word "mature").

I really like it, as it pushes me to think more.

All the best.
Cheers,
J-F

RESET DONE!

With the first 2 days of this week also showing excellent gains (2.7%), I have decided to carry out another "reset". Equity in the AUD account reached $19750, which is an 8.4% gain on the $18212 figure we started the month with.

So, all trades closed, equity gains locked in, drawdown at 0% . Yes, some of the AUD trades in particular were closed at significant losses, which puts a dent in the Balance line, but as always, it is overall Equity that matters, hand in hand with drawdown %.

What I like about doing this as well, is that all the older losing trades are closed, and I can actually reopen them at this lower price, and thereby provide easier TP targets. And the positions where I had 2 trades open (e.g. AUDSGD) will be down to only one trade, so exposure is also reduced.

This brings IRR for the last 12 months to 31.9%

Well done sir! Keep it up!

Week ending 14Apr18

This week has been another stellar week, with a 3.9% gain in equity. The situation mid-week offered the opportunity to reset the account, which I did as per my previous post. I then reentered the trades I had closed, 9 in total, with the corresponding adjusted TP targets. 8 of those TPs were hit. I only have one trade currently open (EURNZD) which is just a few pips in the negative due to the widening of the spread at market close.

On the AUD account, MTD the increase in equity is sitting at 9.7%, and YTD it is 8.6%. Annualised IRR is at 33.3% for the last 12 months. With current drawdown effectively nil, I am very happy with my current position and the account performance.

The AUD account is just about to hit the $20,000 level, and I will start thinking about making some withdrawals. Given the transaction costs, the higher the withdrawal amount the better, although I will wait for the AUD to improve a little more before doing so.





In the interest of transparency, and also self-accountability, I will also include from time to time screen shots of my NZD account (with a/c number deleted of course). From a financial point of view, it is better to use these funds to reduce my mortgage, for example, than just sit in a very low-interest-bearing savings account, however, the whole point of this is that these are my FX funds, and may be required from time to time to top up the AUD account. My overall drawdown and equity gain/loss percentages will be a function of the sum of both accounts, and without the NZD portion actually allocated and physically set aside, one could say (i.e. invent,make up) any figure at all that they had in other accounts for that purpose.

Week ending 21Apr18

We started the week with only one trade still open from last week. I placed 14 orders, 11 of which were taken in the first day or two, and another two taken later in the week. 8 TPs were hit in total, so there are still 6 trades still open.

Mid week we were showing good gains, especially after several TP targets were reached, but we ended the week with a drop in AUDSGD, CADSGD, and Soybeans, which meant we only had a small overall gain in equity for the week in the AUD account of 0.1%

Drawdown is sitting at 1.1%, and margin used is just over 8% of NAV. This also means that MTD we are up 9.8%. Annualised IRR for the last 12months is sitting at 32.6% on the AUD account

The AUDNZD recovered a little this week, so the overall account (in NZD) is up 0.8% for the week, and 9.6% MTD. Combined drawdown is at 1.1%.