Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

http://reports.autochartist.com/mr/a...&report_id=326

https://nftrh.com/2018/04/09/30yr-yield-and-sp-500/

30YR YIELD AND S&P 500
April 9, 2018 Gary Bonds, Stock Market, US 30yr Yield and S&P 500


A stroll through time with TYX & SPX.

A great bull market in stocks began in the early 1980s after yields topped out and began to decline from very lofty levels (by today’s standards). That was the fuel, the slack in the rope for future funding that the economy and thus stock market have used to this very day. Even as prices of all kinds have risen systematically, bonds also rose (yields declined systematically) with the bond vigilantes of yore apparently more myth than reality (or extremely selective about what is ‘good’ inflation and what is ‘bad’ inflation).
The long-term correlation in 30yr Treasury yields to the SPX has been negative, obviously.
https://nftrh.files.wordpress.com/20...tyx1.png?w=840


From the date of the US presidential election, though the relationship has been volatile the correlation between yields and stocks has been positive. This makes sense because the Trump administration is trying to manipulate the economy with fiscal policy actions while the Fed manipulated the economy with monetary policy action (much of which included outright bond manipulation). Consider the Fed on mop-up detail right now as Trump does his thing.
https://nftrh.files.wordpress.com/20...tyx2.png?w=840


Finally, you can see that since the most recent ‘inflation trade’ got going in mid-December (gold, commodities and many inflation indicators bounced at that point) stocks also remained firm but then tanked amid growing concerns about long-term interest rates (right on schedule as Amigo #2 it made to destination) and inflation. That was the hype of it. But since late February it has been declining, not rising yields that have been painful to stocks. This is in line with the long-term trend. This morning in pre-market yields are up and stocks are not at all surprisingly up too.
https://nftrh.files.wordpress.com/20...tyx3.png?w=840


Just another little window into a market that people chasing nominal prices around may find confusing, because in a landscape that has been thoroughly cultivated (no, over farmed) by the Fed the soil is dead and weeds are what grow best. But I digress.

The point being that for over a month now, stocks are back in line with long-term Treasury yields. And that has meaning. People need to really think about the macro and functions and dysfunctions.


Thus ends another post where I don’t talk about stocks or TA or other conventional things and instead probably further confuse some people. I get that. I could sell more newsletters and get more website eyeballs by being linear and easy. But that ain’t what this market is.


Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas; or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar. Or follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. Also check out the quality market writers at Biiwii.com.



Benjaminis

Good Morning

For the moment we have RISK ON !!!

Today's Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.5%. Hong Kong +1.3%. China +0.2%. India +0.5%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.3%. Frankfurt +0.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.9%. S&P +0.8%. Nasdaq +1%. Crude +0.3% to $62.25. Gold -0.4% to $1331.20. Bitcoin -3% to $6812.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 2.8%
Today's Economic Calendar
12:30 PM TD Ameritrade IMX

Good Evening

I did 3 Forex trades today with Net Profit as you can see $593.50 SO... after 42 days of Forex trading my Net Cash Balance is now $63,397.15 US Dollars starting with $50,000 US Dollars on February 27, 2018.

So... the $13,397.15 in 6 weeks works out to $2200.00 US Dollars a week. 4.5% a week or 22.5% monthly !!! Not bad. Would you like to just earn 5% a month ?

We can teach you with our methods. See you tomorrow.


Benjaminis

Good Morning

My personal theme for today is Wrong and Right. This morning I found the following article that follows that theme.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/04/10/ev...netflix-libor/

SNIPPET:
Reality simply doesn’t matter — until it suddenly does.
Wolf Richter with Chris Martenson on Peak Prosperity’s Featured Voices, discussing the various aspects of the “Everything Bubble,” the “Bubble Mentality,” what it has wrought, and where it is headed.

SNIPPET:
The “Everything Bubble” has a number of side effects, including booming lending by specialized lenders, some of them backed by private equity firms, to car buyers with subprime credit ratings, which worked fine for years. But now subprime auto-loan delinquencies have surged to the highest rate since October 1996, and three of the smaller specialized lenders just collapsed into bankruptcy or were shut down. Allegations of fraud and misrepresentations are swirling through the bankruptcy filings. Read… Subprime Carmageddon: Specialized Lenders Begin to Collapse

SNIPPET:
Comments on article
Robert_D
Apr 10, 2018 at 9:32 pm
Nice subtitle — “Reality simply doesn’t matter — until it suddenly does.”
From Ayn Rand if I remember correctly, “You can ignore reality – – – but not the consequences of ignoring reality.” ( Or something like that )
And another favorite, as person who is wont to be short, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” That one I have totally experienced a few times !

Comments from Benjaminis: I would guess that 75% of all Forex traders use Technical indicators to trade Forex. That leads to failure. Think about what the real issues are and what information you need to make intelligent trading decisions.

walter map
Apr 10, 2018 at 10:17 pm
“… and How it Might End”
I will plainly tell you how it will end.
For the world’s more full of weeping than you can understand.
The Stolen Child
That is how it will end. La tristesse durera toujours.

I will return later with more of my morning thoughts.


All eyes were on President Xi of China last night regarding how he might respond to President Trump/US on the continuing flap over trade tariff issues. Those fears contributed to yesterday afternoon’s selloff in the DOW. When those fears were assuaged (see below), the DOW futures responded very positively and gold was quickly under modest pressure during the Asian trading hours.

Aided by a stronger euro, gold worked its way back into green territory and then was given accorded more bids when this hotter than expected US inflation news hit the tape…
08:31 Mar US PPI +0.3% vs. consensus +0.2%; ex-Food & Energy +0.3% vs. +0.2%
Feb PPI was+0.2%
Feb PPI ex-Food & Energy was +0.2%

Comments from Benjaminis: How can you realistically trade Forex without being aware of this information before or as it unfolded ? You cannot and that is why 95% of all Retail Forex Traders and probably 75% of commercial Forex traders lose money.

I will post my basic philosophy of becoming a winning Forex trader.


Benjaminis

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...7/#more-173462

Guest Post by Mark Nestmann
In 1971, President Richard Nixon told an ABC News reporter that he was “now a Keynesian in economics.”

Nixon’s statement was an acknowledgment that he agreed with the ideas of John Maynard Keynes. Keynes was an economist whose theories once underpinned the economies of every major country.

Nixon’s endorsement of Keynesian economics was shocking. To understand its impact at the time, consider how the world would react today if the leader of ISIS converted to Christianity. Or if the National Rifle Association endorsed a ban on semi-automatic weapons.

Nixon’s statement was astonishing because one of the fundamental precepts of Keynesian economics is that governments must intervene in the economy to ensure “optimal outcomes.” To economic conservatives, this was dangerously close to socialism or even communism.



Keynes believed that business cycles – periods of expansion followed by recessions – are the inevitable consequence of capitalism. Free-market economists believe governments should not intervene in the business cycle support economies in recession. Keynes thought intervention was a fundamental duty of government.
During the Great Depression of the 1930s, Keynes advocated for governments to reduce taxes and increase public spending to spur employment. Keynes acknowledged that this policy might require deficit spending. But he believed budget surpluses when prosperity returned would make up for the deficits.

Once Nixon embraced Keynesianism, resistance by economic conservatives – and the Republican Party – faltered. The last Republican president who didn’t endorse Keynesian economics was Dwight Eisenhower, who left office in 1961. Ronald Reagan, George Bush Sr., George Bush Jr., and now Donald Trump have all embraced cutting taxes to spur the economy.

That brings us to 2018. February 15, 2018, to be exact. That’s the day that Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin signed off on a report with the mind-numbing title Fiscal Year 2017 Financial Report of the United States Government.

The message from the Secretary indicates that happy days are here again. As the report states:
Unemployment is at its lowest level since February 2001, consumer and business confidence are at two-decade highs, and inflation is low and stable.
This statement and the fact that free-market loving, fiscally conservative Republicans are running the show in Washington suggests the US might actually have a budget surplus.

Only it doesn’t. The Results in Brief section includes this statement:
The Government deducts $3.4 trillion in tax and other revenues from its $4.5 trillion net cost (with some adjustments) to derive its fiscal year 2017 “bottom line” net operating cost of $1.2 trillion.

“Net operating cost” is functionally identical to “budget deficit.”
In other words, while the economy hums along at a record pace, the US budget deficit is increasing by $1.2 trillion annually. What’s more, the tax cuts recently enacted by Congress are expected to increase deficits by more than $100 billion annually.

This isn’t free-market economic thinking championed by economic conservatives who dismissed the ideas of Keynes as needlessly interventionist. Nor is it even Keynesian economics. After all, Keynes argued that governments should accumulate a surplus during times of prosperity.
It’s not popular to say, but the US is broke. Busted. Bankrupt. That becomes more apparent as we dig in further to the Treasury report. Here are some highlights from page 55:

 

1. Total assets of the US government: $3.48 trillion
2. Total liabilities of the US government: $23.89 trillion
3. Net financial position of the US government: -$20.42 trillion

The net financial position of -$20.42 trillion is about 1.1 trillion more than it was at the end of 2016.

This is in a time of near-record prosperity. What do you think will happen when the next recession hits and Keynesian economics demand more government spending?
Oh, and by the way, the -20.42 trillion does NOT include future liabilities to Medicare and social security recipients. That comes to another $49 trillion (page 58).
In reality, the picture is even worse. In 2015, Boston University Professor of Economics Laurence J. Kotlikoff calculated an incredible $210 trillion “fiscal gap.”

Kotlikoff’s analysis looked at the Congressional Budget Office’s expenditure projections for unfunded mandates. These include Social Security, Medicare, and military and federal pensions. It then subtracts the projected tax revenue to arrive at $210 trillion.

Kotlikoff’s figures don’t include the cost of the wars Donald Trump or any future president might decide to start in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Where will the government get the money to pay these unfunded obligations? Professor Kotlikoff’s calculations indicate an immediate and permanent 58% increase in federal taxes would eliminate the fiscal gap.

The Social Security system is in far better fiscal shape than the US government. So was the city of Detroit prior to its bankruptcy. Kotlikoff suggests the Social Security system is “only” 33% underfinanced. And Detroit was forced into bankruptcy in 2013 with only 25% underfunding.

We can forget about an immediate and permanent 58% tax hike. That’s just not going to happen. Any politician who suggests it will be promptly booted out of office.
But resurrecting a 2013 proposal from the International Monetary Fund might be more acceptable. The proposal calls for a “one-off capital levy” of 10% or more of private savings. To avoid public opposition to this outright confiscation of personal property, the IMF advocates the levy occur on a weekend or holiday, with no advance warning.

Confiscation of your savings would be politically acceptable because 57% of Americans have $1,000 or less saved. The impact of a capital levy on these individuals would be minimal. It would be easy for a populist president to convince them that a capital levy on the “rich” was necessary. After all, it’s easy to support confiscating other people’s money.

Comments from Benjaminis: The above article lays the groundwork for understanding about FAKE NEWS upon which PERCEPTION and REALITY moves forward and back and we go from RISK ON to RISK OFF !!!

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2018/0...actice-of.html

FRIDAY, MARCH 09, 2018
A Surprising Best Practice of Successful Traders
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--43QjrGvb...20/Mastery.jpg
Here's an interesting observation I've made about traders who are doing well recently versus those not doing so well:

It's not just the quality of the trades that distinguishes the successful trader, but the quality of the time during market hours when they are not trading.

The least successful traders are glued to screens throughout the day and have very little structured, quality time away from the screens.

The more successful traders take breaks during the day and keep themselves fresh and focused.

The most successful traders have a structured non-trading process during market hours. They are just as plan-oriented in their non-trading time as in their trading time. When markets are open and they are not trading, they have processes they follow to identify new opportunities and to maintain their performance zone.

Productively planning and structuring your non-trading time: that is an unappreciated best practice. The great traders are highly productive when they are *not* trading. A big step that can move your trading forward is to start keeping a report card where you grade the quality of your time during the trading day when you are nottrading.

On Monday at noon EST, I'll be joining Jigsaw Trading for a free webinar on three psychological techniques to improve trading psychology. In that session, I will go into detail about specific practices I see best traders engaging in during non-trading hours. Registration for the session can be foundhere; I hope to see you there!

Brett

Hi BenjaminIs,

I always wanted to combine technicals and fundamentals. While on technicals there are millions of strategies, courses and information out there there is hardly anything on fundamentals. While fundamentals might not gives on the exact entries and exits it gives added probabilities one ones trades as one is in sync with the big guys. I have always wanted to learn more on this subject bringing technicals, fundamentals and sentiment together. I have subscribed to your thread and hope that by doing this I can bring more and more puzzle pieces together to finally get the full picture.

Best regards

Jester

http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

The above link is a great visual resource that I use. Enjoy !!!

Daily Visual Chart on EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=EURUSD

FINVIZ - Charts on 2 Year , 5 Year , 10 Year and 30 Year US Bonds.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=BONDS&p=d1

THE KEY US BOND CHART TO MONITOR !!!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year.
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time.
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will give me your user name and password so that I can check your results daily. (By PM)
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge and at the end of the 30 days I will give you a grade out of 100 HOWEVER your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons that sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD IN ORDER TO HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank You and have a Great Trading Day !!!


Benjaminis

Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of “Beat the Odds in Forex Trading” by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful trader’s career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting psychological stress, because in real life it is impossible to completely eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity. Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on trader and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way, in accord with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failure on market’s “wrong behaviour”, which didn’t comply with the trader’s brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their own inabilities to make right decisions in situations, which afterwards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the lost critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view. Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I don’t think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterday’s situation from today’s point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis at allows for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influence by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phenomenal) results trading dummy accounts but can’t even come near those result when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of profitable position, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders become fearful of the market. They are in as state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision – reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the trader’s position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyse daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they come to the conclusion that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. However, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, even everything should be begun again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the trader’s wilful thinking. In this case, treaders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market cannot and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sire they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their own position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The market’s “wrong behaviour” not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the “wrong behaviour” or themselves for errors in what then seems an absolutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their personal enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact ht at they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Traders should always have close at hand one or few options in case of sudden change of the situation/weather, so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills – specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, treaders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any moment (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses, until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Sacred and trouble traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period of time, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealer’s spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market “noise”. Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficiently psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders’ impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders’ fear of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock to them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emotion, can watch a bank casher counting other people’s money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other people’s money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The soon traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because there situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders’ ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX marker are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma – the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.


Benjaminis

Forex Market Hours

www.forexmarkethours.com

also

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/fxmarkethours/

There are at least two reasons why you should track the major forex market trading hours:

 

1. The first hour after a major market opens is considered very important and often indicates how the session might develop.
2. In periods when market 'trading hours' overlap, liquidity tends to increase because more traders are participating in the FX market.

In case anyone here reading any of these articles or my comments has any questions please feel free to post your questions. No question is stupid and you can only learn by asking questions. I see now that there are 10 traders reading this and only myself is a member so it is simple and easy to register so that you can post anywhere in Forex Factory and also enter into a discussion with me on these important world changing issues if you care to. Have a good evening.




Benjaminis

1. Post 70
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Dec 10, 2016 4:31pm | Edited at 5:26pm

 

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,638 Posts | Online Now

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Hi Benjamin: I may suggest that you share your knowledge publicly to allow readers to exchange with you and build some relationship with them. I think through this way, everyone is winning and you don't have the workload of assessing everyday how your trainees did. Personally, I can't afford one hour everyday, but I'm willing to learn at my pace. This said, I would thank you for your offer.
I will post tomorrow how to go about opening a Demo Account with FXCM UK and if you would like to tell posters about this thread then of course he would make the thread more interesting for everyone. That is one of the reasons that I encourage people to register with Forex Factory so that they can post.

THE WHOLE POINT OF THIS THREAD IS TO HELP TRADERS LEARN FROM A PROFESSIONAL TRADER HOW TO TRADE AND WITHOUT RISK FINANCIALLY SHOW HOW TO LEARN THE RIGHTS HABITS where it is accepted that 95% of all Forex Currency Traders lose. You can learn how to get into the 5% category only if you can learn to first CONTROL your Ego , Greed and FEAR !!!

It is quite easy to open a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account with FXCM UK. Just log on and click on the link to open a $50,000 US Funds Practice account and set it to currency in US Dollars and you get your User Name and your Password. DO NOT DO ANY TRADES until I explain to you the 16 Symbols that you need to set up on your Trading Platform. You can post questions on this thread. I will answer promptly. Thank You.

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,639 Posts | Online Now

VERY IMPORTANT TO FOLLOW:

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...ear-bond-yield

As the 10 Year US Bonds go down in value the Yields go up and do the work of the FED whatever the FED does.

Look what happened since November 9, 2016 since the US Presidential elections.

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...ear-bond-yield

STRONG BUY ? Not if the Dow reverses with Risk Off. Look at the USD/JPY chart.

http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy

Hello all traders not registered to post on Forex Factory. It would be very helpful to have questions on I am sure this new subject matter so please register and post any questions that you may have. The only way to learn is to ask questions. Thanks for your interest.

Chart from Finviz for USD/JPY

https://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=h1

US Dollar Index Finviz Chart

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1

The Euro makes up 57.6% of the index. This is a FUTURES chart not the Spot Price.


Benjaminis

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,640 Posts | Online Now

Here is the 5 minute chart from Finviz of USD/JPY.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

As you can see what happened overnight for the reasons already explained in previous posts this morning. If I had been awake as I usually am for sure I would have gone short one additional position of USD/JPY and taken my profits this morning. There is no way that you can lose by taking a profit. That position NOT TAKEN is my very short term trading position trading around my set Trade Plans to keep me involved until the direction goes one way or another.

By the way technical indicators are very important to my overall trading methods as I have designed my own standard template for my technical indicators which are used to show support and resistance. I use the 5 minute charts as well the 15 minute charts. I will get into the technical side of trading in later posts.


Benjaminis

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,644 Posts | Online Now

From a Thread called Knowledge Is Power
Copy and Paste


We welcome constructive criticism and well founded discussion. Inflammatory, rude, repetitive, offensive, off-topic or otherwise disruptive messages designed intentionally to annoy, stimulate or antagonize the existing members or alter the flow of discussion are NOT welcome and will be reported to the moderator team.

I will also start a sister-thread as a digest and to store all the cream from this thread and also as storage for all indicators posted for ease of reference.

10 Trading Rules for Successful Traders
1. Limit your losses.
2. Let your profits run.
3. Keep position sizes within reason.
4. Know your risk-reward ration.
5. Be adequately capitalised.
6. Dont fight the trend.
7. Never add to losing positions. Dont average out.
8. Know market expectations.
9. Learn from your mistakes keep a trading journal.
10. Have a maximum loss or retracement in profits.


For beginners, please read this free Forex education material and learn to be a successful trader: www.BabyPips.com

And also you are advised to read these excellent books:
1. Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies To Profit from Market Swings (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) - by Kathy Lien

2. Technical Analysis of the Currency Market: Classic Techniques for Profiting from Market Swings and Trader Sentiment (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) By Boris Schlossberg

3.High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market By Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien


You can preview the 1st and 3rd books here:
http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...sec=frontcover

http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...+lien%22&psp=1

The Essence of the 3rd book is here:
1. Never let a winner turn into a loser
2. Logic wins, impulse kills
3. Never risk more than 2% per trade
4. Trigger fundamentally, enter and exit technically
5. Always pair strong with weak
6. Being right but being early simply mean you are wrong
7. Know the difference between scaling in and adding to a loser
8. What is mathematically optimal is psychologically impossible
9. Risk can be and is predetermined but reward is unpredictable
10. No excuses, ever

BEWARE:
Why Currency Trading Is Not For Everyone?
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Remember, you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, which means that you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. If you have any doubts, it is advisable to seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You may be liable for losses that exceed the amount of margin that you post. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,646 Posts | Online Now

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders , which I have named , The 5% Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars trade with ? Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCMUK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always , I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.

Benjaminis

Good Evening Jester

Each Forex trading day I start reviewing around 5:00 AM New York Time if the day will bring RISK ON or RISK OFF.

Tomorrow morning I will post around 5:00 AM to 6:00 AM to see where the Futures are at that moment and review what happened overnight in Asia. We have Europe opening in Frankfurt , Germany at 2:00 AM New York Time and by 3:00 AM the MONEY FLOW starts with the open of the DAX and the CAC and the FTSE.

I look ahead to see what news releases are scheduled for 8:30 AM , New York Time and 10:00 AM.

Once the North American Equity Markets open at 9:30 AM New York Time we have MAXIMUM Money Flow until 11:30 AM New York Time when Europe closes for the day only with regard to the DAX , CAC and FTSE.

There can be trading opportunity here as positions are closed for the day in some instances both in the Equity Markets however MORE IMPORTANT in the Forex Markets as the large Forex Trading houses also go home for the day.

I will post during the morning so that you can see my thinking in LIVE TIME as I look for Trade Opportunities based on our 6 Forex Trading Plans.


Benjaminis

You will NEVER read about these matters in the Mainstream Media. As part of my trading skills I decided 10 years ago that I needed to know and understand all these associated matters in order to understand what was really happening behind the scenes.
This is how I was able to develop My Money Flow Method over the last 5 years and it is why I am able to generate a ROI (Return On Investment) of 10% a month.
There of course is much more to achieving these results. There is NO TRADER whether trading Equities or Commodities or Forex that can succeed unless they have the DISCIPLINE to CONTROL first their EGO. (The Market Is Always Right) Then control their GREED and finally most important their FEAR !!!
Good Evening an enjoy your weekend.

Benjamin





I will post tomorrow how to go about opening a Demo Account with FXCM UK and if you would like to tell posters about this thread then of course he would make the thread more interesting for everyone. That is one of the reasons that I encourage people to register with Forex Factory so that they can post.

THE WHOLE POINT OF THIS THREAD IS TO HELP TRADERS LEARN FROM A PROFESSIONAL TRADER HOW TO TRADE AND WITHOUT RISK FINANCIALLY SHOW HOW TO LEARN THE RIGHTS HABITS where it is accepted that 95% of all Forex Currency Traders lose. You can learn how to get into the 5% category only if you can learn to first CONTROL your Ego , Greed and FEAR !!!

It is quite easy to open a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account with FXCM UK. Just log on and click on the link to open a $50,000 US Funds Practice account and set it to currency in US Dollars and you get your User Name and your Password. DO NOT DO ANY TRADES until I explain to you the 16 Symbols that you need to set up on your Trading Platform. You can post questions on this thread. I will answer promptly. Thank You.

1. Post 4,523
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Mar 12, 2018 9:30pm | Edited at 10:29pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,817 Posts | Online Now

Quoting BenjaminIs
{quote} Dear Jester Just send me your User ID and your Password and I will log on to your Forex Demo Account of $50,000 US Dollars and I will put all the symbols in order for you. Good Evening. Benjaminis


Houston , We have a problem. Jester for some UNKNOWN REASON all of a sudden all day and I tried three different times to open the FXCM UK $50,000 US Dollars Demo account and each time the Demo was only set up with $2000.00 US Dollars.

I just logged onto your FXCM UK Demo account to set up the symbols for you and you also only have $2000.00 US Dollars there instead of the $50,000 US Dollars needed.

The reason that 95% of ALL retail Forex Traders lose is because they do not trade with enough Capital. I NEVER would trade today with any less than $50,000 US Dollars and I have traded in the past with as little as $5000 Us Dollars. Using my special FOOL PROOF Formula of never trading more than 20% of the Total Funds under management you could only have one Forex Position on a one time and my scaling in method and other strategies do not work.

With your skills and experience you should do good once you learn the proper way to trade Forex however the only way this works for you or anyone is to trade and learn first on the $50,000 US Funds Demo account. Since you are located closer to the UK than I am would you have the 5 minutes or so to call them and ask them what the FXCM UK Demo account only has $2000.00 US Dollars in it. Please let me know. Thanks.

Local and International: +44 (0)2073984050


Comments from Benjaminis: Jester decided not to continue on learning because he changed his mind because of personal issues between himself and myself. I only mention it in passing in case anyone might wonder.

His exact comments:

1. Mar 13, 2018 7:45pm

1. Jester_73
2. | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Member | 33 Posts | Online Now

For certain reasons I will no longer follow this blog or engage in conversations with the blog creator

 

1. Post 4,523
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Mar 12, 2018 9:30pm | Edited at 10:29pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,817 Posts | Online Now

Quoting BenjaminIs
{quote} Dear Jester Just send me your User ID and your Password and I will log on to your Forex Demo Account of $50,000 US Dollars and I will put all the symbols in order for you. Good Evening. Benjaminis
Houston , We have a problem. Jester for some UNKNOWN REASON all of a sudden all day and I tried three different times to open the FXCM UK $50,000 US Dollars Demo account and each time the Demo was only set up with $2000.00 US Dollars.

I just logged onto your FXCM UK Demo account to set up the symbols for you and you also only have $2000.00 US Dollars there instead of the $50,000 US Dollars needed.

The reason that 95% of ALL retail Forex Traders lose is because they do not trade with enough Capital. I NEVER would trade today with any less than $50,000 US Dollars and I have traded in the past with as little as $5000 Us Dollars. Using my special FOOL PROOF Formula of never trading more than 20% of the Total Funds under management you could only have one Forex Position on a one time and my scaling in method and other strategies do not work.

With your skills and experience you should do good once you learn the proper way to trade Forex however the only way this works for you or anyone is to trade and learn first on the $50,000 US Funds Demo account. Since you are located closer to the UK than I am would you have the 5 minutes or so to call them and ask them what the FXCM UK Demo account only has $2000.00 US Dollars in it. Please let me know. Thanks.

Local and International: +44 (0)2073984050


Benjaminis

1. Post 4,526
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Mar 13, 2018 5:27am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 3,818 Posts | Online Now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1520933253


You can see by the way that I arranged all of the Currency pairs and CFD's that all through your Forex trading day you can see how the movements of the Asset Classes have a cause and effect on each other. That is why I call my UNIQUE method of trading Forex Money Flow Trading Method.

Please post your questions here so that we can continue to learn and improve our Forex trading.

https://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

https://www.finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

For the moment we have RISK ON as you can see from the 5 Minute FINVIZ chart on US 30.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5




Benjaminis