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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #3,601
  • Apr 7, 2018 9:49am Apr 7, 2018 9:49am
Quoting Bestof27
{quote} Lets try something BB is going up B is going down, retracing W made a BUEB BUOB at support zone + in strat shadow Could be a buy setup, but B has not yet confirmed ... Found similarities with EURCAD
... B has not confirmed a buy setup (not W as I wrote first)
  • #3,602
  • Apr 7, 2018 10:03am Apr 7, 2018 10:03am
Quoting Bestof27
{quote} ... B has not confirmed a buy setup (not W as I wrote first)

I have caught myself a few times with the same thing. Weekly and worker are to different things each beginning with a W....And I'm not French. I don't know what I would do if I had to translate as well as learn.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,603
  • Apr 7, 2018 10:13am Apr 7, 2018 10:13am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} I have caught myself a few times with the same thing. Weekly and worker are to different things each beginning with a W....And I'm not French. I don't know what I would do if I had to translate as well as learn.
That is why I asked Strat to write in French .... Unfortunately he is not yet ready for that
  • #3,604
  • Apr 7, 2018 11:15am Apr 7, 2018 11:15am
Interesting read for the weekend

https://www.1843magazine.com/content...ses-difficulty
  • #3,605
  • Apr 7, 2018 11:21am Apr 7, 2018 11:21am
From post #26

Patience and waiting for the trade to come to us is the difference between winning and losing (read amateurs and pros). The "dead area" (trapped between support and resistance) is where most traders lose their money. We may not make many trades (and I don't want to) but the ones we make have a higher percent of success with usually a higher Gladys Knight count.

Rock n Roll,
Strat


I used to think that to be a trader you had to catch all the swings and know when they were going to happen. That is complete BS....(for those who need a translation of BS...Bull Shit) As a trader, all we need is to trade a one thing and trade it well. Think about it. Suppose you cut your losing trades in half because they were mediocre positions? Where would your account be now? Yomi is a 5m specialist. Trogger is his own specialist. There are a number of others here whose charts I always look forward to seeing. The point is, we each must find our specialty, then master it.

Stuck in the house today with the tail end of a awful cold, so some random musings.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,606
  • Apr 7, 2018 11:47am Apr 7, 2018 11:47am
GBPCAD

Quoting Rufus
{quote} Food for thought....Looks like the potential for a lot of groceries. Price is in a very large WCC where it is almost 2:1 to the top of the candle. But the other thing is that the top of the WCC has been hammered hard on 6 different days. For me. Monday would be a day to watch this. Maybe get a lower risk entry on the 4h chart. take partial profits near top of WCC. Move stop to BE at that time and see if it can bust through. Final target about 1.8935 which I would further shave down to 1.8880 or so to get away from BRN. {image} {image} EDIT:::::::::...
But the other thing is that the top of the WCC has been hammered hard on 6 different days.

Which means what?

Maybe get a lower risk entry on the 4h chart. take partial profits near top of WCC.

So all you can SEE is LONG? Trading is all about probabilities and Rule # 1. Is your thinking in line with those?

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,607
  • Edited 12:16pm Apr 7, 2018 11:49am | Edited 12:16pm
Quoting darko2010
Interesting read for the weekend https://www.1843magazine.com/content...ses-difficulty
Great little article. Thanks for posting.

Some additional thoughts concerning this.

One thing I have noticed over the years is the shift of "Stayed mind" or "Focused Mind" . Pre cell phone days in comparison to now.

I have been involved in construction for a loooooong time. It used to be that you had to plan your week. Supplies needed, worker efficiency, etc. The standard time to start making phone calls for any loose ends was 6 to 7 am depending on who you were calling. Once 8 am rolled around everybody was working and of course there were no cell phones and you worked the entire day. You had to put in the work to plan if you didn't it failed. Now with the use of cell phones, as convenient as they are, planning has fallen by the wayside. Worker efficiency has dropped from what I see.

More random musings. I like my smart phone. But what gets under my skin quickly is when you are having a meaningful or important conversation with someone and it gets interrupted by some ridiculous Tweet about Kim Kardashian's butt.

I better stop. I'll just start ranting soon...besides my phone just alerted me of a new Tweet....

Pavlov's Dogs.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,608
  • Apr 7, 2018 11:54am Apr 7, 2018 11:54am
PASR - The Path

Quoting Rufus
{quote} I have caught myself a few times with the same thing. Weekly and worker are to different things each beginning with a W....And I'm not French. I don't know what I would do if I had to translate as well as learn.
This is what happens when people are LAZY at writing.

I started my "old" original thread and again with this knowing that non English speaking people would participate so I never used abbreviations and acronyms and ALWAYS spelled everything out. Plus I dislike lazy and abbreviated writing and even more so on the jargon they use in text messaging.

The Path clearly states Worker, Boss and Big Boss - where is the confusion here?

There is no ""W"" - it is either the Boss or the Weekly - plain and simple.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,609
  • Edited 12:16pm Apr 7, 2018 12:02pm | Edited 12:16pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD {quote} But the other thing is that the top of the WCC has been hammered hard on 6 different days. Which means what? Maybe get a lower risk entry on the 4h chart. take partial profits near top of WCC. So all you can SEE is LONG? Trading is all about probabilities and Rule # 1. Is your thinking in line with those? {image}
You just made me switch on another light bubble...
PA is not just about what the price does but also what it doesn't manage to do.
A single candle, even a BUEB or BUOB, on a Worker downtrend is not enough to justify a buy, especially as price didn't close above resistance.
I may be wrong but I would look for sell PA opportunities on H4 or H1 below worker resistance level.

EDIT: my work on M5 trades was a great help to not panic on such candles that don't necessarily mean a change of direction. As we are in a fractal environment, M5 and worker should not be treated differently on this regard

EDIT 2: I am on my phone and cannot post charts, but we are also on significant S/R level on the BB and price got rejected after trying to break higher. This gives me more confidence to seek short opportunities
  • #3,610
  • Apr 7, 2018 12:10pm Apr 7, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD {quote} But the other thing is that the top of the WCC has been hammered hard on 6 different days. Which means what? Maybe get a lower risk entry on the 4h chart. take partial profits near top of WCC. So all you can SEE is LONG? Trading is all about probabilities and Rule # 1. Is your thinking in line with those? {image}

Which means what?

To me, I see the top of the WCC weakening the bottom remaining strong.

So all you can SEE is LONG?

I like being called on the carpet for my thinking. This is where real learning happens.
My thinking here is that until we get a close of the weekly candle below the WCC which also corresponds to the area of support highlighted my bias is longs. Also the Strat Shadow on the Daily chart is very close to the bottom of the highlighted support area.

Trading is all about probabilities and Rule # 1. Is your thinking in line with those?.

Rule #1... Capital preservation.
I think so. The Big Boss is showing strength to the upside. Boss has weakened for the last three weeks but is sitting on top of support. Worker is seeing some strength for longs. Is this a situation where the worker and Boss may turn together to move with the Big Boss?

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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,611
  • Apr 7, 2018 12:19pm Apr 7, 2018 12:19pm
PASR

Quoting darko2010
{quote} You just made me switch on another light bubble... PA is not just about what the price does but also what it doesn't manage to do. A single candle, even a BUEB or BUOB, on a Worker downtrend is not enough to justify a buy, especially as price didn't close above resistance. I may be wrong but I would look for sell PA opportunities on H4 or H1 below worker resistance level. EDIT: my work on M5 trades was a great help to not panic on such candles that don't necessarily mean a change of direction. As we are in a fractal environment, M5 and worker...
PA is not just about what the price does but also what it doesn't manage to do.

It's taking its time, darko, but you are definitely getting there!

You must have missed the posts I have written on my "old" original thread that :

""we look for what PRICE does at support and resistance""

""PRICE can only do one of 3 things"":

Go UP

Go DOWN

Do NOTHING (go sideways)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,612
  • Edited 12:46pm Apr 7, 2018 12:26pm | Edited 12:46pm
GBPCAD

Quoting Rufus
{quote} Which means what? To me, I see the top of the WCC weakening the bottom remaining strong. So all you can SEE is LONG? I like being called on the carpet for my thinking. This is where real learning happens. My thinking here is that until we get a close of the weekly candle below the WCC which also corresponds to the area of support highlighted my bias is longs. Also the Strat Shadow on the Daily chart is very close to the bottom of the highlighted support area. Trading is all about probabilities and Rule # 1. Is your thinking in line with...
To me, I see the top of the WCC weakening the bottom remaining strong.

Well you are much more intuitive on trading than I. In all my 23+ years trading Forex I have NO CLUE what it means

This is now causing you to have a bias LONG. To be consistently profitable at trading, whether it be Forex, stocks, futures and commodities, you have to keep an open mind and be flexible WITHOUT bias.

Expect the unexpected and you will not be surprised.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,613
  • Apr 7, 2018 12:34pm Apr 7, 2018 12:34pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD {quote} To me, I see the top of the WCC weakening the bottom remaining strong. Well you are much more intuitive on trading than I. Over all my 33+ years trading Forex I have NO CLUE what it means This is now causing you to have a bias LONG. To be consistently successful trading, whether it be Forex, stocks, futures and commodities, you have to keep an open mind and be flexible WITHOUT bias. Expect the unexpected and you will not be surprised.

You are absolutely right. No bias and expect the unexpected.

On the daily chart for Friday, it gave us a bullish engulfing candle. If my trading plan says take the trade, I take the trade. No bias, no expectations. Just set the trade and leave it be win or lose.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,614
  • Apr 7, 2018 12:43pm Apr 7, 2018 12:43pm
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} PA is not just about what the price does but also what it doesn't manage to do. It's taking its time, darko, but you are definitely getting there! You must have missed the posts I have written on my "old" original thread that : ""we look for what PRICE does at support and resistance"" ""PRICE can only do one of 3 things"": Go UP Go DOWN Do NOTHING (go sideways)
Thanks Strat, I read that post on the other thread.
If I may, the motto that helps me the most nowadays is "On swallow doesn't make a summer". I realize now that when the market has taken a direction, I must avoid anticipating a change of direction prior to a real, visible and justifiable signal from the price that confirms such change.

But it's damn hard, it's hard everyday, but my eyes are getting better at reacting to what my brain can't consciously explain yet if you see what I am trying to say
  • #3,615
  • Apr 7, 2018 12:44pm Apr 7, 2018 12:44pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD {quote} To me, I see the top of the WCC weakening the bottom remaining strong. Well you are much more intuitive on trading than I. Over all my 33+ years trading Forex I have NO CLUE what it means This is now causing you to have a bias LONG. To be consistently profitable at trading, whether it be Forex, stocks, futures and commodities, you have to keep an open mind and be flexible WITHOUT bias. Expect the unexpected and you will not be surprised.

This is the biggest topic in "Trading In The Zone" and about every other psychology in trading book I have read. Yet it is so easy to flip your mind around and make some stupid prediction. Society today is full of predictions, from the weather to the price of oil. This is a great example of another area of life that is contrary to being a successful trader.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,616
  • Edited 1:48pm Apr 7, 2018 12:57pm | Edited 1:48pm
Quoting strat
PASR {quote} PA is not just about what the price does but also what it doesn't manage to do. It's taking its time, darko, but you are definitely getting there! You must have missed the posts I have written on my "old" original thread that : ""we look for what PRICE does at support and resistance"" ""PRICE can only do one of 3 things"": Go UP Go DOWN Do NOTHING (go sideways)

One piece of analysis that I couldn't explain until I remembered: Fibs !!!
A healthy rebound should have occurred much higher, at 50% or 67%, wouldn't you say? At this level of retrace, is it a retrace or the beginning of the downtrend? I go with the latter

EDIT: I switched my PC because this started bugging me

On the last 2 upswings on the Worker, price retraced 38% and 50% respectively.
On this last upswing, the rebound occurred at around 78% retrace, and we pierced through EMA20 on the Worker which, to me, shows weakening bulls.
As EMA20 is a dynamic S/R, I would pay close attention to PA near that EMA20 level but with a bearish bias based on the above.
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  • #3,617
  • Apr 7, 2018 1:42pm Apr 7, 2018 1:42pm
Fibonacci

Quoting darko2010
{quote} One piece of analysis that I couldn't explain until I remembered: Fibs !!! A healthy rebound should have occurred much higher, at 50% or 67%, wouldn't you say? At this level of retrace, is it a retrace or the beginning of the downtrend? I go with the latter
Is there any trading rule that says PRICE must rebound/find support/find resistance at a certain %? Fibonacci is just another subjective tool along with Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns etc. If you can find a certain % that PRICE consistently turns then I am all eyes. Until that time, I only use it for confluence along with other subjective tools.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,618
  • Edited 2:14pm Apr 7, 2018 1:56pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting strat
Fibonacci {quote} Is there any trading rule that says PRICE must rebound/find support/find resistance at a certain %? Fibonacci is just another subjective tool along with Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns etc. If you can find a certain % that PRICE consistently turns then I am all eyes. Until that time, I only use it for confluence along with other subjective tools.
Of course, Fibs are completely subjective. But again, we deal in probabilities and what I see is a change in the pattern that decreases the probabilities of a strong upswing unlike the last two. I am more familiar with M5 as you know, and I wouldn't buy this if it were an M5 chart unless we break EMA20 upwards. In any case, I need more info before I can take a side
  • #3,619
  • Apr 7, 2018 2:46pm Apr 7, 2018 2:46pm
Quoting strat
GBPCAD Food for thought for the week end. {image} {image} {image}

Hi
As I was reading trough post's, I did saw your post with GBPCAD "food for tought". With only your BB- monthly chart, I did my analysis and wrote it on chart.

Than I continued with reading and I saw answers from other member's and I thought " well I'm not seeing it as I should". Continued on the next page (181) I saw discussion continued and now I want to see if my analysis is worth anything ?


Tadej
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  • #3,620
  • Apr 7, 2018 2:50pm Apr 7, 2018 2:50pm
Quoting strat
Fibonacci {quote} Is there any trading rule that says PRICE must rebound/find support/find resistance at a certain %? Fibonacci is just another subjective tool along with Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns etc. If you can find a certain % that PRICE consistently turns then I am all eyes. Until that time, I only use it for confluence along with other subjective tools.
Sorry as it comes in waves, but price also broke the DSRI that has been holding the uptrend. I can’t go back to my pc unless you have a girl to introduce me after my subsequent divorce
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