Technical Analysis Fallacy

Guys what happened to FTI?

Hi foobar

no one really knows for sure, all we do know is our friend was long term very ill and this is the longest time he has not posted anything.

regards

Phil.

How do we know that FTI really existed and was a real trader?

You don't. So do your due diligence.

You seem like a real one, fool or not, we can agree to disagree. Maybe, you left out a "L" in your nick, but hey, that is personal.
And just for indulgence, how does the question help your trading?
Actually, don't need to reply. Your answer to your previous question is enough.

Bye.

Regards

what he has provided us here is enough and more than we deserve.... I am forever grateful FTI

Alex

Hi friends, just wanna share something and would like to hear how would you guys cope under similar circumstance.

This few months I have been intensively sharpening my trading skill, and trying different trading style for various market condition, sometimes I wondered whether ranging market (no thrust even in 5 min tf) is a good market to trade.

The most recent example from yesterday, I entered short EU, NU and long UC with their immediate term movement (3 days) and weak stock market in mind before the big move. USD apparently became weaker after US open, but there is something strange, UJ also became stronger, this indicate risk on mode as I can't see anything bad from JPY side. However, yesterday stock market also fall all day long.

This tell me it is pure currency move, and the main driver is USD rate hike, only the expectation of rate hike easing off will prop up USD, however, if thats the case, all 7k will be in sync with USD being the weakest.

And when UJ finally turned down, which coincided with USD weakness, GBP and EUR seems to fell out of sync. All this has caused me to have more confident in holding my strong usd trade and keep rescuing.

All those position are still sinking, so this has caused me to reassess whether I should trade the range and keep rescuing unexplainable move
1)the biggest drawback of rescue is that we have to babysit all our rescue as long as the whole rescue operation last, this is just impossible as we will have to sleep? leaving resuce overnight is akin to suicide as when mega move come, the book might even break.
2)If I have to rescue and leave overnight, my initial position will be so small that even all rescue sink, my book wounld't be affected much, well this is just cost ineffective given all the effort.
3)It is also not feasible to force rescue before we stop babysit when market not allow as market will pierce through our rescue and greatly increase our position size
4)ranging market is very irregular, its central point shift constantly, given that I have a hard tp (at least 20 pips) for all my position after considering cost-chance to breakeven, ranging trade could last into overnight if tp is not touched.

I also see some potential danger after yesterday trade
1)the move did not start after news, or anything important after checking reuters and the fx calender, it is less likely to be a stop hunt and can be a legit move
2)I have huge weak USD directional risk.

Some strategies I could implement in the future
1)implement butterfly strategy on long gbp and short CAD, NZD from their recent performance, if 7k in sync I am protected and gain the most when they tear, it is pretty unlikely both leg snap back.
2)do not trade range, thus no need to rescue, just enter full size when trend is detected, because the trend is out of sync, I will have to spread across different pair and preferably those pairs that show strong currencies move on the immediate term


This way I could have joined the party instead of getting sucked on the rescue, of course one could also cut rescue/ scout and join the other side, but I think this is my own weakness as when position is commited and the adverse price movement is unexplainable, I tend to fight with it.

Hi GoldenFinger

The answer to what you have wrote above would be as long as the thread is now.

Quote
‘This way I could have joined the party instead of getting sucked on the rescue, of course one could also cut rescue/ scout and join the other side, but I think this is my own weakness as when position is commited and the adverse price movement is unexplainable, I tend to fight with it.’
End Quote.

But in short I think you answered your own question/problem with the last lines you wrote and you are not recognising it enough to be able take the steps to fix this part of your trading issue, I believe everyone has trouble with this at first, I know I did, it was not until I understood how and why we work the way we do that I could start to do anything about it, the particular part of the problem you mention is called ‘cognitive dissonance’ (holding two conflicting beliefs at the same time).

AOW…
15. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.
4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it.

Regards

Phil.

You see the market and you want some of that profit you can see.

You enter the market and soon realise that profit can also be taken from you.

You leave the market having felt you have been on a roller-coaster and lost your money when you went through the loops because you had unsecure pockets.


You enter the market on what you have studied a little, but now you see danger so you hold on for dear life and then jump off before the loops.

You do this time and time again, but there is no risk so you are not excited and just tread water without making anything/much for your time.


You enter the market, you have your money in zipped pockets, you ride through the risky loops and come out the other side intact and with some profit/new experience.

Hi, yesterday and today are G20 meetings, so cross current will be high if something fundamental gets released, have to be extra nimble. Mistimed positions may not be good for rescue since impulse from sudden news can cause massive spikes.

I think EU action last 2 days is explainable. Not sure when you went short exactly on EU or how many men in but news: FOMC/G20/and Brexit news yesterday - notice of impending deal was out there - positive on deal also ECB put out news re QE so Newton's law comes in to play. FOMC week will likely see some games/news reports put out so caution was in my mind. You were nervous from what you say so caution should have been in yours so reduce nos and be nimble or stand aside.

My thoughts yesterday: EU price action on 3rd down day: D1 at level where price has reacted many times before: wonder what it will do this time will it find a bit of support or not after yesterday's reaction here? Will buyer's come in - how will I know this what might I expect?

H1: yup DB at that low they did not find any selling for now down there and the bulls then kicked in with momentum + uptrend - so I attacked that first pullback in H1: aided by the good news so we are long for now with caution - but plenty time for FOMC games/newsy stuff to come later...

So long we go yesterday until topping distribution went on long time so sign good down was possibly coming........ but for me could feel the bear/bull struggle in the run long anyways so not surprised of turnaround - I gave up on it after a bit. At support becoming resistance (H1) it reversed (and a fib level) - so hopefully you all ok now. The distribution was clear in my opinion and at a level where it is no surprise of possibility so you could have pinpointed its potential and waited lightening the load to reduce stress. I think being rigid was a problem here - I do it too.

Good question on what to do if we make mess: so as this long was very newsy driven I think you could have looked at where reaction could be expected and wait until trend comes into your favour - nice distribution turned up for good sign of possibilities. If you did not think you could babysit it then close it down and live to fight another day as you said risks too great for you.

So basically I think you had rigid view and did not change when price action did - and maybe you got in short too soon too much when you were cautious.

Alex

Question for you guys, when I use scout and scale positions based on FTI suggest, broker charges a fixed $2 commission for each trade which makes it really expensive quickly. How much do you guys usually do for 1 trade for say EURUSD? 10000? 1000?

Hi Chimam,
I think the question is subjective... if you are trading 2$ commission per trade, does that mean you are trading 0.20 / 20,000 volume per trade? that is quite a big volume size for me to begin with. Is that your lowest available volume on your broker? Else, are you on prime brokerage? I am not sure about prime myself - sorry.

Anyway, for me personally, I am anywhere between 0.01 (1,000) to 0.1(10,000)[very very very rarely I start off with this, makes terrible loss management and very little defensive/rescue options for me at the rear..]

Hope that helps.

Regards
Ray

Just trying a long shot here, does anyone have a copy of Black Box Thinking by Matthew Syed?
If so, could you PM me about it, thanks!



Rgds

So your broker only charges for spreads and not commission? How much is the spread on average for EURUSD and USDJPY?
Mine is 0.3 pips on avg for UJ and 0.2 to 0.3 for EU
My broker is fixed $2 for comms

Another question, how do you know that rescue is not viable and time to sink scout? Sometimes u rescue when u dont see the reverse trend developing, by the time u rescue it's too late n u r sunk.

Maybe show us an example chart of when you felt like that (read story in thread of man on roof wanting rescuing) ........everyone will decide on rescue (and attack) based on trend, price action, self and their financial capabilities (money management).

Post a chart and tell us what you did or saw at time... you need to plan for eventualities.

Also my advice focus a lot on attack.

Alex

FTI... missin ya

Alex

I deeply apologies. I just read the 1st post.

I shall delete my comment above. Thanks for letting me know.

Is ok, water under the bridge(as what the guy used to say.). Pleasure is all mine.

If you are interested in reading the thread, the guys place the marker at the 200th page marker line. Elif, hey no matter, we all have different strokes we favour.
Have a nice day my friend.

Regards

Yes... because buyers of the break bumped into a bunch of armed ducks on the other side.
In the picture attached please find an old "Macho" Trader politically uncorret representation... ROFL!

I really hope fti will like this one!

How many metaphors and similes can be built to explain this phenomenon?

That's the Market, baby. The Market! And there's nothing you can do about it. Nothing!
Understand and flow.
Understand and just follow.
fti's most precious teaching!

Charts are all a trader needs: they operate as a window into the psychology of the players.