Market profile prep for Forex majors

This is a sister thread to the London session market profile prep.
Please refer to that thread for a description of the methodology.
Here in this thread, we look at several major Forex pairs.

The major differences between profiles of the Forex instruments and those of the equity indices are the nature of the auctions.
The equity indices are strongly driven by the sentiment, i.e. risk on risk off. That is why everyday is pretty much a new auction. Hence, daily profiles are very effective. The weekly profile can also be consulted for guidance. However, the monthly and yearly profile are much less useful for indices.

On the other hand, the auction of the Forex are driven by the macro factors such as the interest differentials, central bank flows and so on, the auction there is much stickier in nature. Hence the weekly, monthly and yearly profile are quite useful, while the daily profile levels are not often respected.
See in this example where Gold has repeatedly find support at the level 1313.8. Why? It is the Value area high of last year's profile. That is the location where the big moneys are step in initiating trades.

In the second example, the Aussie got a strong rejection at 0.7914, which is the Value area high of the Feb monthly TPO. The responsive seller stepped in driving Aussie lower.

Looking back the first quarter, Euro had a trend-pause-and-trend profile in Jan. The month Feb has opened in the value traded solely in the value. This has resulted in a neutral profile with a bearish tilt. The bearish tilt is because of the selling tail at the high after being rejected at the prior month's value high and POC located in the lower half.
The month March are mainly traded in the prior month's value again with rejection from the prior month's value high, again. Since the monthly range is getting even smaller, it has resulted in a balanced profile with thick TPO distributions close to the center.
The balanced profile means the energy has been built for the next trending move. Because the most recent up move was rejected from the prior day's VAH again, I would bet that the Euro is going to break out to the down side some time next month.
Therefore, I am going to watch the monthly open closely next week to see if there is any sign of down side break out. Once broke out, the value area low and POC are going to be the place to place your continuation trades so long as the March's VAH has not been taken out.

Zooming from monthly to weekly perspective.
The first three weeks of March had successive lower value areas. This is bearish on the one hand. On the other hand, it can be interpreted as building energy to break to the high. The break occurred after the FOMC meeting. But it got rejected at the Feb Monthly value high (see previous post).

It seems that we are getting some responsive buy from the March monthly value low. But i would expect the bounce to be stalled after filling the TPO hole in last week's TPO profile.
If the price keeps on breaking higher, I would expect the value area high of last monthly TPO, at 1.2482 (note that this is futures price), would be defended by the bears.

Euro breaking down on the way.
Only shorted a small position which has hit target already.
Keep looking for sell in the coming days.

A perfect rejection of pound from the Value Area low of last week's weekly TPO.
For Pound to be neutral, it would have to trade back to last week's value area. Otherwise, i would hold a bearish bias to it.

Pound has spent the whole week doing nothing except running stops from both sides below last week's value.
Look at the tight weekly range. Big break out is going to come.

Euro has been overlapping to the downside forming a down channel below last week's value.
Wait until the break out for long.

This week Aussie is finally able to stop the trend of lower value on the weekly time frame.
The retest of the weekly POC has provided a great entry on the long side

Finally Pound broke down heading towards the POC of the week of Mar 12th.

Yesterday I was trying to play the upside in the Aussie. However, it was never materialized -- it has formed a corrective structure but no break out to the upside.

During the Asian session, the evil market maker has done a stop run below Wednesday's low. Out of the open, it has tested the Wednesday VPOC and shot straight from there. It is like saying "haha you losers, weak longs".

Pound has run over the high volume node i have marked yesterday. It has retested that level in the morning session to the tick before trading to the upside.
The path of least resistance for POund is to trade higher to fill the hole in the weekly TPO.

I have never reckoned the Copper to be a tradeable instrument because it is too erratic in price action.
However once I have put it in the market profile chart, those price actions suddenly made sense to me.

It is so true that all markets are essentially an auction. Once you put them in the lens of continuous two way auction process, everything just makes sense by itself.

EURO seems to have broken the down trend line.
Actually there is a low risk long at 15:00PM yesterday that i have missed.
Let's monitor the development next week.
I would love to take a long when it tests the high volume node at the low successfully.

Bullish reaction after running over the POC level I have mentioned in the prior post. It has retested that level to the tick before shooting to the upside. Next week there could be a lot of upside for POund. The pound just keeps defying the gravity of the strong dollar. Once the dollar strength comes to a halt, the Pound is going to soar.

A beautiful Wolfe wave short in Pound.

See what level Euro has just tested and found reaction?
The weekly POC of two weeks ago.
I would expect some rotation from this level on to target the other side of the weekly value.

POund was sold down hard. I am looking at the POC of last week for some reaction.

That is the failure I am talking about. After the stop orders are probed. It is time for the Market maker to bring the price lower to liquidate their shorts.

Look at the precise reaction at the last week's POC in Pound.
Who said the Forex are fair and not manipulated?

Pound has fucked my ass hard again.
yesterday, there was a positive reaction from last week's POC, hence I have decided to take a long during the retacement.
But I didin't see that there is a High volume node behind me. The pound tested that level before shooting higher which just penentrated my stops.