Diversified Trend Trading Approach | Page 155 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is Grid Trading (combined trend following and counter trend) Profitable? 3 replies

Making a good diversified portfolio 10 replies

Diversified EA Money Management Code 10 replies

HAMA PAD - A Simple Trading Approach 7 replies

Trading a (semi) automatic approach...but want more 11 replies

Attachments: Diversified Trend Trading Approach
Exit Attachments

Diversified Trend Trading Approach

  • #3,081
  • Apr 1, 2018 11:01am Apr 1, 2018 11:01am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} It is the risk weighted returns that the investor or allocator is after. {image} Retail traders may last 1 to 3 years thinking they have an edge...but I haven't seen many lasting 21 years offering a CAGR of 11.49% with a max drawdown over the entire period of 26%.
Long Term Capital Management with two Nobel Prize winners convinced everybody that they had an edge for a few years and almost created global crisis when they defaulted together with Russia. Nobody even checked how badly was their strategy negatively skewed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-T...tal_Management

Attached Image
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,082
  • Apr 1, 2018 6:21pm Apr 1, 2018 6:21pm
Quoting Ramadas
More crazy moves like this in Copper in 2016, please. 0.25 SD on both SDCs. {image} {image} If you don't have copper in your portfolio....then you are missing out....
Woooohooooo. Nice one R. I luv the smell of parabolic moves in the morning....smells like.....victory :-)
  • #3,083
  • Apr 1, 2018 6:24pm Apr 1, 2018 6:24pm
Quoting Ramadas
{quote} Long Term Capital Management with two Nobel Prize winners convinced everybody that they had an edge for a few years and almost created global crisis when they defaulted together with Russia. Nobody even checked how badly was their strategy negatively skewed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-T...tal_Management {image}
LTCM .....RIP

Attached Image
  • #3,084
  • Apr 1, 2018 9:18pm Apr 1, 2018 9:18pm
Why having an edge matters in a system of finite sources. It is the slight edge that leads to outsized rewards. An excellent article on the Pareto Principle from James Clear.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 58 KB



https://medium.com/the-mission/the-1...s-d92ca43baa0e
  • #3,085
  • Apr 1, 2018 9:50pm Apr 1, 2018 9:50pm
Quoting Copernicus
... It is the slight edge that leads to outsized rewards ...
Good read ... thanks for sharing ...

Let’s find that 1% “edge” by having a trading strategy with a win-rate of just 51% (or better) over a long-term ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #3,086
  • Edited 6:49pm Apr 2, 2018 6:35pm | Edited 6:49pm
]The most important skill in your life that is often the most neglected....from Zat Rana

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 106 KB
  • #3,087
  • Apr 2, 2018 8:52pm Apr 2, 2018 8:52pm
thankyou for the reading material
I will get my head around this, but always can be wrong
  • #3,088
  • Apr 2, 2018 11:31pm Apr 2, 2018 11:31pm
Quoting Copernicus
]The most important skill in your life that is often the most neglected....from Zat Rana {image}
Good point ...

As a trader, we need to constantly ask “Why” ...
1. Why did we decide to enter at a certain point? ... What variables did we make that decision on?
2. Why did we set the stop at that price? ... And, will we trail it or just leave it on?
3. Why did we calculate the target to be that price? ...

A trading discipline should incorporate all those questions into one flow in the form of “EP —> SL/ TP” before any trade is taken ...

Note:
- A stop-level should not use an arbitrary level. A formed Support/Resistance was there for a reason. Use it to “accept” peacefully that our trade is not working at this time ...
- If we set our target using a “high” RRR (more than 1.1R), it might mean we are “greedy” or the win-rate of our strategy is less than 51% ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #3,089
  • Apr 3, 2018 12:29am Apr 3, 2018 12:29am
Quoting 4for4
{quote} Good point ... As a trader, we need to constantly ask “Why” ... 1. Why did we decide to enter at a certain point? ... What variables did we make that decision on? 2. Why did we set the stop at that price? ... And, will we trail it or just leave it on? 3. Why did we calculate the target to be that price? ... A trading discipline should incorporate all those questions into one flow in the form of “EP —> SL/ TP” before any trade is taken ... Note: - A stop-level should not use an arbitrary level. A formed Support/Resistance was there for...
Excellent points 4for4.
  • #3,090
  • Apr 3, 2018 4:19am Apr 3, 2018 4:19am
C, did you read this?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gEwneZN.png Size: 150 KB


http://www.automated-trading-system....ore-realistic/
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,091
  • Apr 3, 2018 5:14am Apr 3, 2018 5:14am
Quoting Ramadas
C, did you read this? {image} http://www.automated-trading-system....ore-realistic/
Cheers R. I have a beach holiday coming up.....and it looks like I have some homework to do......*drats*...... I will have a good look at it :-)
  • #3,092
  • Apr 3, 2018 7:39am Apr 3, 2018 7:39am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Cheers R. I have a beach holiday coming up.....and it looks like I have some homework to do......*drats*...... I will have a good look at it :-)
Beach is a miserable place. In fact it is graveyard in part: The particles can also be biological in origin, such as mollusc shells or coralline algae. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beach
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,093
  • Apr 3, 2018 8:25am Apr 3, 2018 8:25am
Quoting Ramadas
{quote} Beach is a miserable place. In fact it is graveyard in part: The particles can also be biological in origin, such as mollusc shells or coralline algae. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beach
Well that's just dandy. What started as a euphoric thought is now just miserable. Who needs holidays anyway....very overrated. They should not get in the way of gruelling work. :-(
  • #3,094
  • Apr 3, 2018 8:29am Apr 3, 2018 8:29am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Well that's just dandy. What started as a euphoric thought is now just miserable. Who needs holidays anyway....very overrated. They should not get in the way of gruelling work. :-(
I recommend forest and small hills, lush, cool with shadows.... Oh, you don't have them in Australia? Sorry Please come over! Spring is starting.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 927 KB


Nice calculator of possibility of Drawdown - in my case possibility of 15% DD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: qwRZ1xH.png Size: 45 KB


from

http://www.automated-trading-system....s-yet-to-come/
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,095
  • Apr 3, 2018 8:57am Apr 3, 2018 8:57am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Well that's just dandy. What started as a euphoric thought is now just miserable. Who needs holidays anyway....very overrated. They should not get in the way of gruelling work. :-(
No, beaches can be also nice place to chill. I hope you will rest and recharge there

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CIubbTEUEAAiKGf.jpg Size: 97 KB
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,096
  • Apr 3, 2018 9:39am Apr 3, 2018 9:39am
This is that graveyard beach I will be at shortly. Talk about dull!!!!!!!!!!! :-)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 76 KB
  • #3,097
  • Apr 3, 2018 3:18pm Apr 3, 2018 3:18pm
So we see weakness in CHF and we can trade GBP CHF, NZDCHF and USDCHF breaking out.

Which would you choose?

I went with NZDCHF because of strong short-term momentum and USDCHF, because it looks better than GBP CHF.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hsG3TfW.png Size: 451 KB
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,098
  • Apr 3, 2018 4:46pm Apr 3, 2018 4:46pm
Now we know what is minimum cost of running a hedge fund in Europe:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dwHR66T.png Size: 1.5 MB


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...est-hedge-fund
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #3,099
  • Apr 3, 2018 7:14pm Apr 3, 2018 7:14pm
Quoting Ramadas
So we see weakness in CHF and we can trade GBP CHF, NZDCHF and USDCHF breaking out. Which would you choose? I went with NZDCHF because of strong short-term momentum and USDCHF, because it looks better than GBP CHF. {image}
Morning R. Monitor your portfolio heat and take entries when the rules are reached.....but when portfolio heat is say >5% simply avoid future entries until the heat gives room to allow further trades. That way you should be able to stagger your entries into most of them without paying the price of too highly correlated pairs that all turn south at the same time. C
  • #3,100
  • Apr 3, 2018 7:16pm Apr 3, 2018 7:16pm
Quoting Ramadas
Now we know what is minimum cost of running a hedge fund in Europe: {image} https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...est-hedge-fund
Hehehehe. The dogs are essential. I did not factor that in :-)
1 trader viewing now