Journey to consistency

Mar 27

-0.7pips

3 short entries I've been having "real problem" with my entries lately.

I'm developing some sense of the flow since I went live but entries aren't making things any easier. I'm thinking I either go down to 1m with twenty ema or just stick with 5m chart and nothing else..

Lower TFs tend to overemphasize my anxiety and fear not going to debate about that will going down to 1m do me any good?? I might do better entries but will I be able to hold my positions long enough as intended before a reversal happens while keeping an eye on 1m I haven't even able to do so on two minute chart.

entry + exit + direction = consistency
I'm missing entry and exit from the equation......

10tick chart I'm guessing that's equivalent to 10sec

3 entries

except for the last this is how bad my short entries were.
now I'm thinking can I do a precision entry on 10sec chart and afterwards just stick with my 5m and time for exits ?
if I can of course that would be splendid! I can get away with 20pips SL or a little less, sounds very appealing the prospect of entering at the right moment.
but the problem is execution and if this will work for "other" scenarios.

let's just stick with 5m for entries, exits and assessing the field and see how I do.
don't think I'll cope with 10sec charts, and I generally suck at multimeframe analysis - its too confusing.

trendlines, horizontal support and resistance.

Mar 28

+2.1

entry was on point decided to go with 5m

1 short
had another long after the short but accidentally clicked sell instead of buy.
I think this was a long but don't look that good neither to be a buyer here.

flat.

Eventually went down 50pips since my entry but I got out early and even attempted a long which is embarrassing to admit. But hey this is how journey to consistency is going to be like. Don't be too hard on youself. I may not be profitable just yet but sure I am on the path to consistency.

Now this is different type of V sell in my own language that's cup pattern - it can go either up or down I like to start my day by drawing trend lines and obviously visible horizontal resistance for down moves or ranges and horizontal support for up moves or ranges/range breakouts.

This is a different type of V pattern I bought the bottom of the V and sold it at the upper rim but never have I traded this type of V yes it is essentially same as the V I sold at the rim but this one's not as straight forward and can sometimes look similar to buy V pattern if you're not prepared and haven't drawn the trend line and horizontal levels properly.

I think I should provide a reason why I took a long position after closing my first short entry. V shapes can also mutate into buys as it breaks out of the trendline especially if you're not drawing your trend lines properly as they can be very subjective you're going to get into a lot of trouble like I did and still do. Patterns do change and mutate and they also do have their gazillion different kinds of variations. Being able to tear them apart from buys into sells going to take "ALOT OF TIME" this I can promise you. Going off track here, for long like I was saying V patterns can sometimes go onto long setups if it breaks above the trendline but once it breaks out of the trendline you want to look for a specific look as for today I finally realized this was a V short when it formed M shape I have an example of V turning into M shape at a resistance in my file so this one's going into that file so next time when it appears I will stay in the trade and will not crumble down.

entry + exit + direction = consistency

for today
entry was on point
direction was with the flow although I did stumble a bit
exit was off

Doubt will persist but as I get to know and internalize many kinds of patterns I am sure I will soon be able to hold those positions for the intended period of time and hit between 30-50pips or more daily that's the goal.

Aha!
this was a short all along.

i need to meticulously practice these patterns buys from sells every day for 1h prior London open.
there's no room for error.
and I'm going to live up to that title "full time trader"
its about time

Nice journal. I've subbed. It looks like you're starting to get some of that consistency. I think it's a great idea to concentrate on 1 instrument. ^^ I have a couple of questions if you don't mind - Through what instrument are you trading the DAX? I mean is it through futures, CFDs or options? And what made you choose the DAX over other indices? Thanks.

Thanks for stopping by !

I trade DAX through CFD think its much more affordable than through futures although I'm not too sure about option. I have decided to concentrate on DAX as soon as I discovered the thread "Traders Academy" but at my previous broker the margin was too high then I moved broker and finally have had a chance to trade DAX only then I realized how clean the moves can be, how it respects levels of interest support/resistance, patterns - it was unlike anything I've traded before not going to lie it seemed easier but we all know that's far from the truth.

Essentially if you open up any time frame any instrument if you are well versed you'll be able to read it, but DAX moves much faster besides giving out nice clean moves and the payout is more than say pairs like EURAUD where range can extend up to 30pips during the time I prefer to trade yes I can make more with pairs but I'll either have to stay glued to the screen for the duration of the whole day which I refused or stuck in between a range as it often used to happen. Plus there were those days where the calendar is filled with high imp news, some people can capitalize on those moves but for me it was only becoming nuisance with DAX I don't have to care about outside noise/interference at all - I just need to trade what's there in front of me on the charts.

As for in comparison to other indices and DAX, I tried Nikkei on demo at first glance it appears as though you can become a millionaire in a matter of a year or two trading Nikkei with leverage but word of caution - lot size for Nikkei starts at 1 that's a lot even when you're entering from 5m your SL would be anywhere between 30 - 70$ per position the reward however goes a little steeper than DAX considering the risk you're taking I guess it equals pretty much but I do find Nikkei a little too chaotic than DAX and I'm certainly not willing to risk that much so early in my path to consistent think its going to disrupt the process. I have also looked at Russel mini and Nasdaq, S&P but they tend to move the most during US session that's after 9PM my time mostly around 10PM that's too late for me to function properly and I prefer to call it a day usually around 5PM since the EU transitioned into daylight savings I can finish the day at 4PM my time which is even better. So time was part of the deciding factor but truthfully speaking in terms of range and risk v reward DAX beats it all out of everything I've tried or looked at. Last point while we're on the subject of time, I really like that with DAX I have set time for work for my case from Frankfurt open until 1.5 hours after London adds up to roughly 3.5 to 4 hours of work each day. To succeed especially if we're risking it all and giving it all we have to take it seriously and routine I think also is helping me to pick up the pieces. Didn't want to keep on trading FX pairs with no set hours and with little results to show for.

You seem like you're also interested in trading DAX, well I can only say one word go for it ! but on demo - don't be fooled by the elegant looks of it it can still be a beast at times. Familiarize yourself with the patterns/S&R horizontal/trendlines and its behavior first before going live. There're many good threads about DAX on thread discussion and in the journals section.

I had to get out today for errands so took the day off although I would have preferred to trade so for this week I'm ending the week net negative first time since I went live.

Mar 26 - Mar 30

-17pips

net DD -1.08%
and the month of Mar ends.

Thanks for the detailed reply. I appreciate it.

I'm definitely looking at concentrating on one instrument. I'm a big believer in having as few variables as possible. I'm currently using sim software to manually "forward" test historical data if you see what I mean. It's essentially the same as demo trading except I can speed up the ticks a bit to practise with more data in a shorter time. I've so far been doing it with EURUSD. I've been getting good results but every now and again (at least once a week), there are HUGE spikes / momentum bars and it has made me realise that EURUSD has too much red news that you have to dance around. The DAX I'm guessing would be a smoother ride. I'll have to look into CFDs on indices and how they work in terms of pips, pip value, lot sizes and all the rest. Thanks again. ^^

No problem!

Preplanned sequences

This is either buy it from uptrend or sell it from downtrend, judging by the size of the gap at the open this could be a buy it from uptrend (uptrend line is yet to be drawn as for now it still is down but when the uptrend line becomes visible then yes this is a buy but for now it's time for staying on the sidelines) when London starts. That's my preplanned sequences we'll see which way it'll play out.

Ok no trendline.
horizontal support did not hold.
no more uptrend line

certainly not sell it from downtrend gap is :huge:
for now it's looking like a V or upside down cup in my terminology still a buy but we go a little lower looks like we might get a signal around d London open. now upside cup or V pullbacks can also turn into longs signals we have our horizontal resistance at 12000 - 12015 but judging by the general ambience this could turn into a sell 30minutes into London. let's forget about forecasting hogwash. for now remains a buy.

this is really playing with my hogwash analysis.
don't look like V no more.

range sell possible at a resistance ?
we just have to go with the flow!

Apr 3

-18.5pips

todays pattern was very unusual and it didn't behave as I expected it to.
I attempted 3 entries.

take away - if you're unsure do not trade, and if it doesn't behave as expected get out.
today was one of those days where DAX just sucked !! at the open.

hopefully tomorrow sunshine will come out and by the end of the week I can come out on top with + numbers.

a quick recap now that the move is almost done for a while.
no more excuses this was a range sell.

in hindsight everything becomes crystal clear.
but of course as a want to be full time trader I need to trade the now, and unfortunately I can't trade from the future so hindsight is useless unless I learn something from it.

when I first saw the huge gap and the candles thereafter the fall 30min prior London open I had two possible scenarios in mind <preplanned sequences> this could either be buy it from uptrend OR sell it from downtrend now around then I realized that this wasn't going to be a sell it from downtrend because the downward trendline was way above and it was very unlikely that price could rally up prior London open which it did not. Then after finding some minor support at around 35 it just fell through downward again then I thought ok this is no more going to be buy it from uptrend because horizontal support did not hold then I figured if it fell more it was going to be an V pullback or upside down cup, 10minutes or so later it started climbing back up again. At this point range sell never occurred my mind, but as the candles started forming and as London open came I was half convinced this was a range sell now I had no position opened prior London open then I started price to retrace back up and test the horizontal resistance then went with my short closed it again opened a long closed it again and opened another short prior closing it down.

looking back my mental roadmap didn't function improperly all the way - it was going fine until I decided to override everything and started analyzing the battlefield over and over again!!! the same old problem. It did not help that my horizontal resistance was drawn a little lower at Frankfurt high when price rallied higher than that line I figured oh then this is not a range sell because this shouldn't go beyond if it was a range sell.

all in all I was all over the place once I had closed my initial short.

so what should I do to combat this inefficiency ?

I mean I seem to do fine when it comes to going with the flow but problem starts occurring when I start to second guess myself my position while in the position with a SL. First off I need to stick with "1" bias, if I have decided this is a sell I will stick with my sell no matter what of course with an SL usually around 40pips, if I am right its going to be very rare that it will hit if I am wrong then of course it will hit the SL. I think I just need more time to fully internalize everything and become comfortable. I kept losing for 3 years full time + 1 year part time so obviously my confidence has gone down the drain, I've been a loser as long as I can remember. But this time I've got to say it is different, don't want to use the word "feel" or shall I say I just know it deep down that we're turning around the corner finally ? But nevertheless I still need to work on few other areas besides direction such as entry and exit all part of consistency formula. While we're on the subject of entry , if my entry was precise don't think I would have questioned myself when I had my first short going. Yes, I need to establish some kind of entry rule for those different scenarios trendline and horizontal S&R for range sell, range buy ext.

Plus I think I'm being "too" flexible.

1. Sell it to uptrend
2. Range sell
3. Upside down cup sell
4. Sell it from downtrend line

1. Range buy
2. Buy it from uptrend
3. Upside down cup buy

Weak areas are:
1. Range sell
2. Range buy
3. Upside down cup sell

I haven't traded "sell it from downtrend" just yet

Stronger points:
1. Upside down cup buy
2. Buy it from uptrend
3. Sell it to uptrend "some variations" are tough nut to crack still

I'll be very careful when I'm dealing with range sell, range buy, upside down cup sell and sell it from downtrend and some variations of sell it to uptrend.

I have missed out on the short trade.

Initially I figured this could rally up but it didn't came London it broke down I hadn't drawn the second resistance prior to this fall.

Oh well

There it goes 50pips.

This is why I shouldn't be "too" rigid.
When will I be able to find the perfect balance between rigid and flexible ???

At least I didn't try to long this.
I stuck with my short but I was expecting this to rally up to the gap.

I guess when it came around 30minutes prior London open when it didn't rally up above that level it was half clear that this was going to fall from lower resistance.

Learned another thing today.

Apr 4

flat