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  • #721
  • Sep 17, 2006 10:43pm Sep 17, 2006 10:43pm
Hi Zarni I am a little confused by your result pages. The last trade on the GbpUsd you have is a BUY on the 9/5/2006 @ 9023 and is Stopped out for a loss.
My actual trade was a Short @ the open of the 6th @ 8937 the HIGH for the day was 8956 so even if you had a 50pip SL it wouldn't of been hit. The LOW of that day was 8793 hitting the 50pips Limit and then hitting the 100pip Limit.
I have compared my other trades with your result pages and can't seem to find any matches. Maybe I am missing something.

Thanks

Bill
"When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph."
  • #722
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:29am Sep 18, 2006 8:29am
Thanks zarni...........do you have a favorite link or two pointing to MurrayMath?



Quoting zarni
Hey BB,
try MurrayMath - it provides pretty similar results for predicted hi/los.
  • #723
  • Sep 18, 2006 8:49am Sep 18, 2006 8:49am
Quoting williamk
Hi Zarni I am a little confused by your result pages. The last trade on the GbpUsd you have is a BUY on the 9/5/2006 @ 9023 and is Stopped out for a loss.
My actual trade was a Short @ the open of the 6th @ 8937 the HIGH for the day was 8956 so even if you had a 50pip SL it wouldn't of been hit. The LOW of that day was 8793 hitting the 50pips Limit and then hitting the 100pip Limit.
I have compared my other trades with your result pages and can't seem to find any matches. Maybe I am missing something.

Thanks

Bill
Hey bill,
just after i posted those i did find some issues with the way orders are handled. if you like send me your spreadsheet so i can make sure when i troubleshoot that the system matches up with yours. (pm me for my email)

in testing your system i started playing around with the other VP indicators did find something very interesting with VP that on backtests shows amazing results on cable (like >900%/annual with almost no drawdown...) i will continue testing it and release when i am done.
  • #724
  • Sep 19, 2006 10:43pm Sep 19, 2006 10:43pm
Here are the results for just a couple of weeks forward testing. I followed the system mechanically as described on the spreadsheet. With a little discretion the results would have been much better. For example, there was a doji and an extreme MT value for the GBP/USD on 9/11. If exited there the trade would have been ~100 pips better. Nonetheless, the system was 77 pips profitable with 2 winners, 2 losers and one break-even.

Looking at the results, I would have done better just hitting the first targets and exiting with recent market action. However, if one were using this system during a strong trend, such as we saw in mid-April to mid-May this system would have caught most of the move.

Your suggestions are more than welcome. All the usual disclaimers apply, i.e. this is not meant to be investment advice, use at your own risk, etc.

Stoney
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip VP system v1.0.xls.zip   6 KB | 611 downloads
  • #725
  • Sep 28, 2006 1:33pm Sep 28, 2006 1:33pm
we finally found the review thread

enjoy!

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=2978
Relax and be happy.
  • #726
  • Sep 29, 2006 7:49pm Sep 29, 2006 7:49pm
Quoting baddison
THanks for sharingm, Stoney. THis is also how I use VP in my swing trading strategy. Except I use the PST and PMT in the second pane. I wait for them to go to their extreme levels as an indication of "overbought" & "oversold" status.

Thanks so much for sharing.
Do you wait for the MA cross to enter? That's what I've been doing but in reviewing charts I wonder if it wouldn't be better to look for a divergance of the ST/MT vs price and place a buy stop at a level which would be consistent with a reversal. Perhaps right on the other side of the Actual MA. That would certainly catch more of the move but I'm not sure how many times one would jump the gun and stop out. I'll try it in my practice account.

What do you think?
  • #727
  • Sep 29, 2006 8:24pm Sep 29, 2006 8:24pm
Quoting Stoney
Do you wait for the MA cross to enter? That's what I've been doing but in reviewing charts I wonder if it wouldn't be better to look for a divergance of the ST/MT vs price and place a buy stop at a level which would be consistent with a reversal. Perhaps right on the other side of the Actual MA. That would certainly catch more of the move but I'm not sure how many times one would jump the gun and stop out. I'll try it in my practice account.

What do you think?
Stoney, I do not use the MA crosses, but I have found other ways to make VP work for me. I will send you an email....
  • #728
  • Sep 29, 2006 8:42pm Sep 29, 2006 8:42pm
Quoting Stoney
Do you wait for the MA cross to enter? That's what I've been doing but in reviewing charts I wonder if it wouldn't be better to look for a divergance of the ST/MT vs price and place a buy stop at a level which would be consistent with a reversal. Perhaps right on the other side of the Actual MA. That would certainly catch more of the move but I'm not sure how many times one would jump the gun and stop out. I'll try it in my practice account.

What do you think?
Strength is the most dependable indicator for overbought/oversold. I have backtested this automatically on MT4 and it yields superb results on cable at least.
  • #729
  • Sep 30, 2006 7:28am Sep 30, 2006 7:28am
Quoting zarni
Strength is the most dependable indicator for overbought/oversold. I have backtested this automatically on MT4 and it yields superb results on cable at least.
Zarni, its interesting that you mention that. To date, I have not found a valuable way to use the strength indicator....been trying for 2 years!
  • #730
  • Oct 5, 2006 10:58am Oct 5, 2006 10:58am
Hi, just to introduce myself.

I've had VP for a year now but only after reading this thread have I got the motivation to really work on a set of rules for a profitable system.

At the moment I'm putting one year's data through excel (apologies if this has all been done before, I've only read through 1/3 of the thread) to see how various set ups perform.

The rules I'm looking at first are:
1. Only trading if pred. med term & pred. short term agree and trade in that direction (positive value=go long, negative=go short)
2. pmt & pst agree and neural indicator 2 days in advance for trade direction.
3. breakout trades a la beachbum

all with 35pip stops and 60 pip limits (of course this is one of the variables)

Rule 1 looks solid, 1800 pips YTD (excl. spread) on EUR/USD.

My hunch is a mechanical system is not enough but if I can keep that pip-positive and incorporate james16 or mouteki (easier said than done) then something worthwhile might come out.

Again, sorry if it's all been done, I kind of need to do testing myself and also, posting helps organise my thoughts. Hope to post again next week.

p.s. This forum is a complete breath of fresh air with the constructive, adult posts. Can't believe it took me so long to hook up.
  • #731
  • Oct 5, 2006 11:06am Oct 5, 2006 11:06am
Welcome bhoy........

There is a lot of info about VP here at FF. After you finish reading this thread you might want to take a look at these:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=4176

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=4242

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=2978

IMO, VP can be a valuable tool as part of a successful trading plan. It is for me!




Quoting the bhoy
Hi, just to introduce myself.

I've had VP for a year now but only after reading this thread have I got the motivation to really work on a set of rules for a profitable system.

At the moment I'm putting one year's data through excel (apologies if this has all been done before, I've only read through 1/3 of the thread) to see how various set ups perform.

The rules I'm looking at first are:
1. Only trading if pred. med term & pred. short term agree and trade in that direction (positive value=go long, negative=go short)
2. pmt & pst agree and neural indicator 2 days in advance for trade direction.
3. breakout trades a la beachbum

all with 35pip stops and 60 pip limits (of course this is one of the variables)

Rule 1 looks solid, 1800 pips YTD (excl. spread) on EUR/USD.

My hunch is a mechanical system is not enough but if I can keep that pip-positive and incorporate james16 or mouteki (easier said than done) then something worthwhile might come out.

Again, sorry if it's all been done, I kind of need to do testing myself and also, posting helps organise my thoughts. Hope to post again next week.

p.s. This forum is a complete breath of fresh air with the constructive, adult posts. Can't believe it took me so long to hook up.
  • #732
  • Oct 10, 2006 10:11am Oct 10, 2006 10:11am
Thanks for the welcome BB.
There's certainly been a lot of work done! Hope I can build on it.

Encouraging to hear you're using VP profitably. Can I ask if you trade mechanically (VP only, entry orders) or use it as part of a discretionary plan?

As far as my own trial goes,
oct2005-sep2006 for EUR/USD
using 15pips inside the projected high/low
with target of 70, stop of 40,
only trading when PST and PMT agree and only trading in their indicated direction (long for +ve, short for -ve)
pips total (adjusted for spread) is 1027 for the year.

This is rough as I haven't checked on the charts if the high or the low was reached first on that day.

Interesting thing I found while backtesting was a limit of 50pips and stop of 25 was the worst performing setup. The amount of pips, be it 0, 10 or 15, away from the projected high or low didn't affect the total profit much at all.

Quoting BeachBum
Welcome bhoy........

There is a lot of info about VP here at FF. After you finish reading this thread you might want to take a look at these:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=4176

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=4242

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=2978

IMO, VP can be a valuable tool as part of a successful trading plan. It is for me!
  • #733
  • Oct 11, 2006 1:51pm Oct 11, 2006 1:51pm
sorry BB, scratch that question, read it in another post.

BTW, are you testing any other patterns/indicators at the moment?

Hope I can share some info next week. Right now I've noticed something weird and either my backtest results are inaccurate or I've got some interesting pattern - will look into it more.
  • #734
  • Oct 11, 2006 5:30pm Oct 11, 2006 5:30pm
the bhoy...........

I am still using the same basic system with the Excel spreadsheet I described in post #661 with a few small modifications to suit my trading style, and it is still profitable, although directly related to VP daily prediction accuracy. Others here may have done more or different things based on PMs I have received. FYI............I've also been using the "fozzy" method along with the VP info. HTH!


Quoting the bhoy
sorry BB, scratch that question, read it in another post.

BTW, are you testing any other patterns/indicators at the moment?

Hope I can share some info next week. Right now I've noticed something weird and either my backtest results are inaccurate or I've got some interesting pattern - will look into it more.
  • #735
  • Oct 11, 2006 6:19pm Oct 11, 2006 6:19pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
Interesting u guys are having some luck with VT... another site i use SLAM BAM DUNKED it... i would in time like to give it a try.. but not at the full price!

Happy trading
  • #736
  • Oct 11, 2006 6:32pm Oct 11, 2006 6:32pm
What is this:............"SLAM BAM DUNKED it"...........?



Quoting Carlos
Interesting u guys are having some luck with VT... another site i use SLAM BAM DUNKED it... i would in time like to give it a try.. but not at the full price!

Happy trading
  • #737
  • Edited Oct 12, 2006 7:52am Oct 11, 2006 6:37pm | Edited Oct 12, 2006 7:52am
Posting link to my backtesting file as i got some PMs on this

http://savefile.com/files/151063

FIXED LINK
  • #738
  • Oct 11, 2006 6:37pm Oct 11, 2006 6:37pm
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
another way of saying.. they didn't like it!
  • #739
  • Oct 12, 2006 8:31am Oct 12, 2006 8:31am
Quoting zarni
Posting link to my backtesting file as i got some PMs on this

http://savefile.com/files/151063

FIXED LINK
Zarni, thanks for sharing. I am now beginning to see where the strength indicator can actually assist in detecting overbought/oversold conditions on VP charts. It's one of those "light bulb" moments. You are correct about producing less trades if you wait for strenght indicator confirmation, but the probabilities for success are greater. Thanks again.
  • #740
  • Oct 12, 2006 8:35am Oct 12, 2006 8:35am
Quoting BeachBum
.... and it is still profitable, although directly related to VP daily prediction accuracy.....
Hey BeachBum....what does that phrase mean? Are you saying that your systems profitability is directly related to how accurate are the predictions? Or are you saying your system is profitable "in spite of" the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of VP predictions?

Sorry for being so daft...LOL!!:
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