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- #15,873
- Apr 10, 2018 10:29pm Apr 10, 2018 10:29pm
{quote} Sorry - I was away for a few days. Anyway, it comes down to playing the percentages.....those 'almost pinbars' can work out, but I still continue to think that the large, round numbers are crucial. In fact, here is an exercise you might want to try: Use a line chart. Mark the large round numbers, and buy/sell based upon a bounce or breakdown. Do this in a demo account, but only trade in a clear trend, and with the trend. Use the daily chart as a time frame. Use either small amounts or a demo first. Then add the candles. The biggest issue...
Chris,
Thanks for the suggestion. I will definitely try the line chart + rejection on large round numbers when i have the chance to. You speaking about price rejection from certain areas really confirmed my recent thought about that.
My laptop's battery is busted recently and i cant access my backtest software until i get a replacement.
By the way, i took a 1D bearish engulfing bar on USDCAD on weekly pivot SNR just like you have been saying, and in 100 pips profit right now.
I expected the engulfing bar to form the day after, and it did, so i took it rightaway with a bigger lot size than i usually take. Took half profit and moved to BE.
This is my first legit profitable trade in which i exactly know what i was doing.
All the credits goes to you, Chris. Thanks.
Hopefully I can be more patient after this trade and not get too cocky and taking all the crappy trades just because of over confident.
Speaking about those "almost pinbars", i found one today on USDCHF. When i dig down to 4hr i found out it is a Double Low Higher Close setup which rejects 50% fib ret and weekly pivot SNR, so i entered the trade. Can you give your thoughts about this trade? Like what i could improve and if there is something that im missing.
Thanks,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
- #15,875
- Apr 15, 2018 10:55am Apr 15, 2018 10:55am
{quote} I would wait until the price goes above the pinbar, meaning that we have broken higher by a few pips of it....but beyond that, it seems legit.
Sorry for the late reply.
An update on the previous "almost pinbar" on USDCHF that i took last tuesday, you were right, it was legit. The trade reached the initial TP, without me..
I messed too much with my trade and ended up sabotaging myself and got out on BE before i got to read your reply.
Anyway, lessons learned and now i will try my best not to touch trades i have set.
I noticed there is a pinbar formed on GBPUSD daily chart on last Friday. Price broke the weekly pivot SNR somewhat strong but slowly going down until the daily candle closed below it.
I was considering setting a sell stop on the low of it, but i remembered someone somewhere in a thread i read few months ago said that on fridays, traders tend to close their position causing a small reversal on price before resuming the initial trend once the market open again.
This idea got me really good and now im thinking if this pinbar is actually what he was saying: a false signal before price continue the trend.
As a veteran trader, can i ask your opinion about this? is this pinbar actually valid or the slow bearish movement on 4hr confirmed the bullish closing positions causing small reversal?
Here is the weekly, daily, and 4hr chart (i use 20 and 50EMA):
WEEKLY
DAILY
4HR
have a nice weekend Chris! (i know its late, but still..)
Thanks a lot,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
- #15,876
- Apr 15, 2018 11:43am Apr 15, 2018 11:43am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2007 | 7,685 Posts
To be honest, I think that this pinbar is a great sign, but not one to sell. I think it clearly tell you where things get interesting....and that is on a break above it. After all, this would signify two things simultaneously. It would show a break of the top of a pinbar, and that shows strength in this case. It also clears a large, round number. Oh wait...there is also the third thing: the recent highs.
So when I see a chart like this, I often think one of two things: It will either make a sudden move higher, which has me buying, or we are going to pull back a bit, and try again. Why? Because these important areas often take more than one or two attempts to clear. This chart has me asking whether I am buying the GBP/USD at 1.4320, or if I am buying on some type of bounce from lower levels.
I would also point out that the 50 day EMA is just at the 1.40 level - an area that should obviously attract interest, so I am looking for a pullback, to take advantage of. Could I be wrong? Of course, but I have at least three things on this chart....maybe more....to hand my hat on.
In the end, the only thing you can do is play the percentages. The more reasons you have to get involved, the better. Otherwise, take your time.
So when I see a chart like this, I often think one of two things: It will either make a sudden move higher, which has me buying, or we are going to pull back a bit, and try again. Why? Because these important areas often take more than one or two attempts to clear. This chart has me asking whether I am buying the GBP/USD at 1.4320, or if I am buying on some type of bounce from lower levels.
I would also point out that the 50 day EMA is just at the 1.40 level - an area that should obviously attract interest, so I am looking for a pullback, to take advantage of. Could I be wrong? Of course, but I have at least three things on this chart....maybe more....to hand my hat on.
In the end, the only thing you can do is play the percentages. The more reasons you have to get involved, the better. Otherwise, take your time.
- #15,878
- Apr 15, 2018 12:31pm Apr 15, 2018 12:31pm
To be honest, I think that this pinbar is a great sign, but not one to sell. I think it clearly tell you where things get interesting....and that is on a break above it. After all, this would signify two things simultaneously. It would show a break of the top of a pinbar, and that shows strength in this case. It also clears a large, round number. Oh wait...there is also the third thing: the recent highs. So when I see a chart like this, I often think one of two things: It will either make a sudden move higher, which has me buying, or we are going...
Im trying to digest what you just said and here is what i understand so far:
- this one particular pinbar doesnt show up as reversal signal but more as signs of buyers trying to break the 1.43 level.
- you are on bullish side because there are more confluence that support bulls (50EMA+trend+1.4 level), than the confluence that support bears (pinbar+1.43 level)
- the USD pairs are not the safest ones to trade right now because the Syria war and stuff
Is this correct?
And about your fundamental analysis, i got a bit overwhelmed because reading news and trying to make connections with price movement is hard for me, so i tried to keep away from it and not mess up my trading decisions.
One thing i can understand and agree is Canada sure is a lovely place. I think i visited it once when i was a 6 (im 22 now) eventhough now im not sure if it is even Canada that i got to visit in the first place Anyway (i remember its USA but cannot recall exactly wether it is Canada or somewhere else).
Anyway thank you for the advice Chris, im still trying to put it all together and hopefully can get some good pips out too this week.
Cheers,
Ivan
Ask, and it is given. Every single time, no exceptions.
