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FX Trading in Europe under threat - act now

  • #481
  • Mar 31, 2018 11:25pm Mar 31, 2018 11:25pm
Quoting kk100
Quote from, SP "Secondly, having tested (as a group and individually) every indicator and combination created," How can test one indicator as group, and every indicator if using one indicator. Le Beau have his merits, SpreadBeter don't have own. Or he have, insulting people and collecting management fees from poor performing fund. If you really know something about Le Beau works, you should know he is friend of Van Tharp. Van Tharp have better metrics for strategy developers. But you are recommending people use Sharpe Ratio, which don't have no...
Good, very good.

You know - I have usually a good laugh when someone like SB claims a pro status in trading by being a salary 9-5 guy. It’s as ridiculous as selling trading strategies and claiming successful trading...

If one speculates successfully in FX markets - there is no need for him to sell literature or sell his time 9-5 on the office chair.

So by definition - the only successful trader is the one that earn his life wealth out of it - everyone else is wannabe more or less.
  • #482
  • Edited 12:58am Apr 1, 2018 12:46am | Edited 12:58am
nanny state. 74 to 89 percent lose money therefore we ban the markets. good one. for years everyone has looked up this kind of info. and now they reveal it and they say they restrict the forex market. they say that the market has grown and that's obviously a bad thing. i'm a firm believer in the free markets and that's my stance on it. hope that the free market crushes them all. now in regards to people loosing money- maybe don't invest money and find another line of work - could be a reasonable advice. the good news is that it's not 1%, it's 11% winners . it has grown. they should make a difference between begginer and advanced. a begginer tries and fails - that's normal, and an advanced makes money- that's normal too. they should just make brokers make it public that 74 to 89 percent of accounts lose money. that's it. this info was hidden by the brokers for years. and there should be a difference between long term accounts and new accounts. by the way 90% of startups fail. maybe we should ban that also.
  • #483
  • Edited 4:18am Apr 1, 2018 3:53am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Good, very good. You know - I have usually a good laugh when someone like SB claims a pro status in trading by being a salary 9-5 guy. It’s as ridiculous as selling trading strategies and claiming successful trading... If one speculates successfully in FX markets - there is no need for him to sell literature or sell his time 9-5 on the office chair. So by definition - the only successful trader is the one that earn his life wealth out of it - everyone else is wannabe more or less.
True.
  • #484
  • Apr 1, 2018 4:25am Apr 1, 2018 4:25am
Quoting deltatrade
nanny state. 74 to 89 percent lose money therefore we ban the markets. good one. for years everyone has looked up this kind of info. and now they reveal it and they say they restrict the forex market. they say that the market has grown and that's obviously a bad thing. i'm a firm believer in the free markets and that's my stance on it. hope that the free market crushes them all. now in regards to people loosing money- maybe don't invest money and find another line of work - could be a reasonable advice. the good news is that it's not 1%, it's 11%...
What you say makes sense.

Except no one is banning FX
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #485
  • Edited 5:03am Apr 1, 2018 4:48am | Edited 5:03am
Statistics can show what ever what people want them show.

Just plain % numbers are meaningless as average without skewness,std,kurtosis

I like to see cross tabulation table of account size 500,1000,10000,50000 etc...
and grouped by fx, Binary Options,CFD
European brokers,U.K brokers,Cyprus brokers, Japanese Brokers, Australian Brokers, U.S
Manual trading, EA trading, PAMM, MAMM

example: Israel binary options bussiness 100% failure rate can skew the statistics.
and small accounts what people can use for testing EA's or developing startegies.

Also want know how and when,where and what period that data is collected.
are values calculated using accounts, or individual performance, like traders two account can show negative profit but rest are positive. and how that have done if trader is using multiple brokers.

It would be interesting, even if 90% are not profitable traders. Not just because brokers publish different numbers than ESMA
  • #486
  • Edited 6:59am Apr 1, 2018 6:49am | Edited 6:59am
the thing is i considered fx to be a dangerous profession according to statistics. now it's all clear that forex market imitates what other markets are doing. the number is the same: 90-95% of traders fail and 90-95% new business people fail also. it's clear now that it wasn't the fx dangers; it was just the real market. the truth. i think that in order to win you have to consider the intelect, creativity and 10000 hours worth of study if not greater than that.

this are quotes from the document

"A standardised risk warning. ESMA is considering requiring CFD providers to
provide a standardised warning in any communication to, or published information
accessible by, a retail client relating to the marketing, distribution or sale of a CFD. At
present, ESMA’s preferred option is that this standardised warning would indicate the
percentage range of retail investor accounts having losses, as emerging from studies
and analyses conducted by NCAs (previous paragraph 2). ESMA is also considering
to require a more abbreviated version of the risk warning when the relevant
communication or published information to a retail client is made other than through a
durable medium or a webpage .An alternative option would be to require firms to disclose the percentage of client
accounts that were loss-making and profit-making based on each firm’s client data from
previous quarters. Applying a standardised risk warning on this basis would ensure that
the information is up to date and would reflect consumer outcomes at the firm in
question."
so it might be a good idea but not quarterly results.from my point of view it has to be year based and a distinction between new accounts and old accounts and it also has to be
coupled with the idea that taking on a new business has exactly the same statistic. forex is not that dangerous. if you are new as a trader chances are that you will lose your money so start small.

another quote
"
14. In relation to CFDs, ESMA is considering restricting the marketing, distribution or sale to
retail clients of CFDs, including rolling spot forex.
"
isn't spot forex what is currently traded? they are planning to restrict cfd's and spot forex.

once again the nany state comes along. i would say that you need to lose money and learn before you succede in any type of business endeavor. anything else is a myth and a lie. it's the distruction of the new and preservation of the statu quo.
  • #487
  • Apr 1, 2018 7:26am Apr 1, 2018 7:26am
Quoting deltatrade
the thing is i considered fx to be a dangerous profession according to statistics. now it's all clear that forex market imitates what other markets are doing. the number is the same: 90-95% of traders fail and 90-95% new business people fail also. it's clear now that it wasn't the fx dangers; it was just the real market. the truth. i think that in order to win you have to consider the intelect, creativity and 10000 hours worth of study if not greater than that. this are quotes from the document "A standardised risk warning. ESMA is considering requiring...

Outstanding post delta!
  • #488
  • Apr 1, 2018 9:09am Apr 1, 2018 9:09am
I think soon we will say..

Good bye,adios,Auf Wiedersehen,au revoir,arrivederci... Forex.., bye bye...
nesta
  • #489
  • Apr 1, 2018 9:49am Apr 1, 2018 9:49am
Quoting tomorton
{quote} There should be a positive change, which s negative balance protection, some restrictions on aggressive marketing, better risk assessment of clients etc. But the loss of leverage will probably drive most private retail traders out of SB and CFD. Its like having your credit card limit cut from £1000 to 20 quid - what's the f-ing point of having it?
My broker already has a negative balance protection and I would bet they are not the only ones in CFD market.
  • #490
  • Apr 1, 2018 9:51am Apr 1, 2018 9:51am
Quoting The-Flipper
Nobody cares about ESMA or about regulators / institutions. They are just a bunch of idiots, don't waste your time with them. There is a demand for brokers with high leverage - so they will always be around. Either offshore or in other parts of the world.
I so hope you are wright about this. So hope.....
  • #491
  • Apr 1, 2018 10:07am Apr 1, 2018 10:07am
Quoting JeremyV
What many don't understand is that lower leverage, directly impacts your drawdown. I get sick every time somebody says they don't care about leverage, because they don't even use their 1:500, but trade with less. I trade with 1:1 or 1:2 maximum, but I do have a 1:500 account. Why? Because the less margin my positions require, the more I can control my drawdown. This is more important the smaller your account gets. A change will destroy any "complicated" trading systems. Of course, you you just get in and out you are not affected. But don't use your...
True words brother, true words.
  • #492
  • Apr 1, 2018 10:42am Apr 1, 2018 10:42am
people should be allowed to invest or gamble in anything they choose. in regards to the state posibly for those gambling their money should not get social security benefits because they gambled while others worked.
  • #493
  • Apr 2, 2018 5:45am Apr 2, 2018 5:45am
Quoting feline207
Brokers will be making even more. What good does lower leverage do - more money deposited into brokers accounts, more margin calls, more stop-outs, more profits. It does not make traders more wise and informed. Leverage is a tool which they now try to bend in their favor. First they introduced high leverage, hoping that dumbass traders will be applying it all to the limit. But seems that is not the case, more and more traders have become educated and are more wisely managing their funds. So why not hit them the other way? And well dressed in formal...
True words brother, brokers will be making even more money after this crap will be passed.
  • #494
  • Apr 2, 2018 6:24am Apr 2, 2018 6:24am
Quoting Spreadbetter
I disagree, the retail industry needs far more oversight and control, there's been improvements but some areas and parts of the industry act like the Wild West. Consumers need protection; from their own limitations, ignorance and arrogance, and unscrupulous behaviour. {quote}
Is it so difficult to inform the customer about the risk and let him choose what leverage he wants to use? That's exactly what my broker does and I think it is sufficient.
  • #495
  • Apr 2, 2018 6:42am Apr 2, 2018 6:42am
Thanks for sharing this info Triphop. I only just came across your thread. I will however provide my feedback to ESMA on this. Strangely enough I don't recall receiving any communication from my UK broker on this as yet...
  • #496
  • Apr 2, 2018 9:04am Apr 2, 2018 9:04am
A long reply but bear with me, as I’m covering a few bases...

I’ve been thinking of an old boss of mine since this ESMA decision, especially after reading an article on Micheal’s financemagnates site, in which they recommended that brokers would have to help to make their clients better traders, through education...

Anyhow, about a decade or so back, for a period of time when I was the other side of your bets, I got quite excited over the emergence of social media and how combined with a genuine trading school, we could really begin to educate clients to become profitable, my boss nearly laughed his head off, reminding me that; “they’re hopeless gamblers, they don’t listen, they never will, our purpose is to offer them a route to market, keep it simple and to stay profitable..”

Very little has changed in relation to the hopelessness of FX punters/gamblers, over the approx. 20 years of market research I’ve conducted, including analysis of the data and psyches, I came to the conclusion that they’ll never learn.

The failure rate has stayed the same over close on 20 years despite: STP, ECN, broadband speeds measured in gigs, better platforms, tighter spreads, less slippage, better fills etc..why is that? How come traders fail 90%+ of the time when even a random series of coin tosses should result in close on breakeven?

There’s a few main reasons, firstly; punters over complicate the whole process as they become obsessed with fundy/tech/p.a./fractals, etc in search of a holy grail, instead of buying when bullish, selling when bearish.

They’re also nearly always criminally undercapitalised and sites such as FF are complicit and compliant in allowing myths wrt turning water into wine and feeding thousand with a few fish and a few loaves of bread. Want to take 25k out of the market? Then at 1% a week growth you need 50k and you shouldn’t be using that 50k to earn you monthly wages, it places unnecessary stress on your decision making, it has to be ‘spare’ money.

And this brings me onto the magic attraction of FX and spread betting and why it’s one of the most difficult addictions to walk away from and why behind the scenes you’ll see lives destroyed, as wretched gamblers keep topping up their small accounts time and time again, believing that next time they’ll “get it right and make it”...

Gambling on markets isn’t like gambling on horses and football, you don’t place a bet on Lukaku scoring the winner for United, win and suddenly think you could become a pro sports better, but FX punters are enticed and seduced by the dream of making it big; they’re sold the Lamborghini driving, Crystal drinking dream, that they can become a big swinging dick and turn that 500 dollars into 5,000,000. It’s one of the most brilliant, insidious and in some ways accidental attractions of FX.

But there’s never been one retail punter on FF who’s ever pulled this off and built a fortune trading his own money, not one. Sure, there’s some decent traders, there’s a few that fly under the radar and keep their head down, but out of the let’s say 3,000 active punters/traders on FF, probably 30 are taking a living out of the market, just 1%.

So no, gamblers need protection, excess use of leverage through the lack of capital is the principal reason they lose, if it wasn’t then ESMA wouldn’t have acted and they’ve taken the right decision to identify this key issue, in order to protect consumers and place the onus on brokers, to clean up their act further. Gamblers can’t be trusted, they need a controlled framework in which to operate, if not the destruction in their life can be irrecoverable.

Finally and it’s broken on record time; ESMA state (after combing through all European brokers data) that up to 90% of punters lose up to €30k on average, that’s jaw dropping and actually worse than the average losses I’d calculated of circa 8k loss on average, which still represents the wiping out of the average persons savings. If you can’t operate under this new regime then you have no business attempting to take money out of FX markets. The only posters bleating over this decision are the undercapitalised dreamers, who need saving from themselves.



Quoting jakub.pajer
{quote} Is it so difficult to inform the customer about the risk and let him choose what leverage he wants to use? That's exactly what my broker does and I think it is sufficient.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #497
  • Apr 2, 2018 10:32am Apr 2, 2018 10:32am
Quoting Spreadbetter
A long reply but bear with me, as I’m covering a few bases... I’ve been thinking of an old boss of mine since this ESMA decision, especially after reading an article on Micheal’s financemagnates site, in which they recommended that brokers would have to help to make their clients better traders, through education... Anyhow, about a decade or so back, for a period of time when I was the other side of your bets, I got quite excited over the emergence of social media and how combined with a genuine trading school, we could really begin to educate clients...

Blimey, there are some good points in there. This is way better than the pathetic consumer warnings usually attached to the "click here to start trading now" buttons.

The best ones concern what to do - firstly put some decent money into this game, secondly buy when the market's bullish, sell when its bearish.

An implication of buying uptrends and selling downtrends is that long-term trading is going to be more rewarding than intra-day positions, which I also fully support.

Its simple.
  • #498
  • Apr 2, 2018 11:00am Apr 2, 2018 11:00am
Quoting Spreadbetter
A long reply but bear with me, as I’m covering a few bases... I’ve been thinking of an old boss of mine since this ESMA decision, especially after reading an article on Micheal’s financemagnates site, in which they recommended that brokers would have to help to make their clients better traders, through education... Anyhow, about a decade or so back, for a period of time when I was the other side of your bets, I got quite excited over the emergence of social media and how combined with a genuine trading school, we could really begin to educate clients...
Key points:
- capitalisation
- proper expectations
- liquidity management
- speculative investor thinking

This posting was good (besides the usual punters part).
  • #499
  • Edited Apr 3, 2018 12:58am Apr 2, 2018 11:59pm | Edited Apr 3, 2018 12:58am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Key points: - capitalisation - proper expectations - liquidity management - speculative investor thinking This posting was good (besides the usual punters part).
Agree,Yes it was allmost good post.

I am still against totalitarianism, even SP invented a new statistical measurement, Up to Average.

"Totalitarianism is a political concept where the state recognizes no limits to its authority and strives to regulate every aspect of public and private life wherever feasible.", WP

People should read this, because we are rapidly falling towards huge black hole, if not understand where this eu bureaucracy is leading us by
Bryssel aristocratical elite maggots, no purpose serve citizens, society.

http://www.iep.utm.edu/totalita/


.
  • #500
  • Apr 3, 2018 3:43am Apr 3, 2018 3:43am
You appear to be suddenly obsessed by me and desperate for my attention, so I’ll give you five minutes of my time and try to address your haphazard nonsense in the order you puked it up. But I warn you; I’m not getting into some tit for tat exchange with you, as based on some of the absolute filth you’ve written, which should have earned a ban, you’re beneath contempt. There’s a world of difference between robust language and Anglo Saxon expletives and some of the disgusting terms and references you’ve used.

Charles LeBeau tested just about every indicator and indicator combination available in the late 80’s early 90’s, all the standard indicators predate the Internet, they were mostly used for commodities and the futures market, and used to plot trends, on weekly or monthly charts. I concur with Chuck’s ultimate findings; all indicators are fallible, the only one that delivered any consistent results was the ADX/DMI for position trading, more relevant to investing, hedging or putting your excess margin to ‘work’. Quite what you’re rambling on about in relation to Van Tharp, is a matter for your sick and damaged mind to figure out.

If you don’t understand the reason Sharpe ratio is used then don’t expose your ignorance by lamely attempting to criticise it. It’s used as one of a series of benchmarks, amongst high level management quants and management investors. If you, stomping around in your troll cave, prefer to use a 1970’s calculator, then knock yourself out. Your nonsense wrt to machine learning just highlights your ignorance. If the retail FX/trading industry is to have any future it won’t be through MetaTrader or using toy proprietary platforms provided by brokers, there’s a space race happening behind the curtain and you reckless, undercapitalised, dreamers and gamblers will simply continue to be the cannon fodder in that experiment.

Your constant editing of your post, as another brain fart enters your low attention span head, is embarrassing. Suddenly you know about LeBeau, because you were researching his conclusions twenty years back, cool story bro, nice image copied from the internet btw...

You failing to understanding the concept of a “line of credit”, also illustrates exactly where you’re at. Let’s surmise a former employer, in the fund manager sector, offers you a reasonable sum to use in order to trade, and the Canton in which they’re based also offers you a highly convenient opportunity to park your capital gains. Would you turn that opportunity down and use your own capital? It’s not a pleasant problem you’ll ever face, due to your knuckle dragging level of intellect, and the fact you have zero connections, you will never have a career in my industry.

Other than my money management/economist career, I’m currently a director of two fintech firms, one involved in retail investing, one involved in P2P social lending, therefore reading trading forums for: trends in current sentiment, opinion and for scraping data, has proven to be an incredibly valuable exercise, down the many years forums have been in existence.

I think that’s covered all your queries and thinly disguised envy don’t you? Now then, you’ll continue to obsess and stalk, perhaps you’ll vomit up some more deranged and damaged statements, it’s obviously part of psychopathy and damaged psyche, good luck with that. Can’t be easy for your family; trying to cope with your bizarre mood swings, and the money you’ve wasted chasing an illusory dream...





Quoting kk100
Quote from, SP "Secondly, having tested (as a group and individually) every indicator and combination created," How can test one indicator as group, and every indicator if using one indicator. Le Beau has his merits, SpreadBeter don't have own. Or he have, insulting people and collecting management fees from poor performing fund. If you really know something about Le Beau works, you should know he is friend of Van Tharp. Van Tharp have better metrics for strategy developers. But you are recommending people use Sharpe Ratio, which don't have no value....
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
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