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Seasoned newbie and professional $$ loser

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 29, 2006 9:54pm Sep 29, 2006 9:54pm
Hello, folks. I'm brand new to these forums, although not quite new to forex. I've been screwing with it since the Euro boom a few years back, when you could make money not knowing anything. Now, getting back into it, I've decided to actually learn how to do it properly. I've been browsing some great info here, as well as reading many books not only about 4x, but equities, commodities, and even got out my old, dry, boring Econ textbooks from college. I'm looking to learn, but not to be scammed by the easy forex fools out there. I've decided that short of buying and reading any and every book that costs less than $50, I intend to spend absolutely no money learning, just copious amounts of time and, of course, what I like to refer to as my "tuition money" in my Oanda account. I am familiar with most of what's in the newbie forum already, and I know this is not an instant or easy path. However, in the longer term I'd like to be able to quit my regular job, which sucks, and do this for a living.

Well, I've been long-winded enough, I was just seeking a little advice, I'm practicing proper money management, waiting on opportunities, using methods that keep me in swing/position trades for a few days at a time, and it's still a struggle to just break even. News trading is actually making me money right now, but the technical stuff I do outside news time is all over the place. I haven't settled on a specific system yet, just trying a lot of different stuff. Any pointers would be appreciated.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #2
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:25pm Sep 29, 2006 10:25pm
It is just my opinion, but I think writers who write books about Forex, usually bad traders. Of course there are some exeptions, but I think most writers would lose their own money on Forex. However they are good writers, that is why they get published. So unfortunately most books are useless and even can do you more harm then help. Sorry but I strongly belive that.

It is also just my opinion, the best way just create your own system, strategy and work and perfect it. And as less read books as possible.
Another thing is forum. Here people with practical knowlage can share they own valueable experiences.

If you want practical results then practice, practice and practice. I read only 3 books about Forex. And I felt that one particular author probably never even try demo. Yet book look nice and even has some complicated math formulas.

By the way, could you give me some advice about News trading. I am very interested in it.
"Every battle is won before it is ever fought." - Sun-tzu, The Art of War.
  • #3
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:49pm Sep 29, 2006 10:49pm
Just kidding, Andy, I actually do okay. Sometimes. Disclaimer, this is not trading advice and you can gain or lose in the financial markets

What I look for is specific numbers like CPI, TICS reports, obviously FOMC releases, etc. Anything significant on your average economic calendar. Days before, I find out what the experts' consensus is from Bloomberg or Reuters, for example. Then I use a fast news service, there are several available, to get the number as quickly as possible, I mean in seconds after release, while I have my trading platform open. What I look for is a divergence in the number. If it is not the same as consensus, that will cause a market spike/adjustment, because the consensus was already priced in and the market will adjust for the divergence. This can take anywhere from minutes to hours to cycle out.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #4
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:50pm Sep 29, 2006 10:50pm
Quoting dukeofdents
Hello, folks. I'm brand new to these forums, although not quite new to forex. I've been screwing with it since the Euro boom a few years back, when you could make money not knowing anything. Now, getting back into it, I've decided to actually learn how to do it properly. I've been browsing some great info here, as well as reading many books not only about 4x, but equities, commodities, and even got out my old, dry, boring Econ textbooks from college. I'm looking to learn, but not to be scammed by the easy forex fools out there. I've decided that short of buying and reading any and every book that costs less than $50, I intend to spend absolutely no money learning, just copious amounts of time and, of course, what I like to refer to as my "tuition money" in my Oanda account. I am familiar with most of what's in the newbie forum already, and I know this is not an instant or easy path. However, in the longer term I'd like to be able to quit my regular job, which sucks, and do this for a living.

Well, I've been long-winded enough, I was just seeking a little advice, I'm practicing proper money management, waiting on opportunities, using methods that keep me in swing/position trades for a few days at a time, and it's still a struggle to just break even. News trading is actually making me money right now, but the technical stuff I do outside news time is all over the place. I haven't settled on a specific system yet, just trying a lot of different stuff. Any pointers would be appreciated.
There are many different technical studies on this site and I haven't checked out all of them yet, but Mouteki is great, which is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...splay.php?f=75

Sidus method seems to work fairly well too when it ends up being a trend and not a whipsaw.
  • #5
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:57pm Sep 29, 2006 10:57pm
Andy, also, books are not bad. They are good. Just don't go right out and do whatever they tell you to. There are right, wrong, and indifferent things in books just like on web forums

Also, don't just read forex books. Read Economics textbooks and business textbooks. For fun. I know it sounds sick.

The point is, if you think critically, you can see what is b.s. I'll tell you what is really b.s. is seminars and the like. Anyone who says they can teach me to be a millionaire by paying them $5000 to attend a seminar, buy a computer program, etc. would be making money with their system and not wasting their time trying to scam me out of my little bit of money.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #6
  • Sep 29, 2006 10:59pm Sep 29, 2006 10:59pm
llambert,

I already checked out Mouteki and tried that shiznit this week, made 118 pips on EUR/JPY. He's a bad mofo. I will be using it. It's simple.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #7
  • Sep 29, 2006 11:47pm Sep 29, 2006 11:47pm
You right, books are good. It just lately, I look at the books and see not much usefull stuff in there.

Quoting dukeofdents
Andy, also, books are not bad. They are good. Just don't go right out and do whatever they tell you to. There are right, wrong, and indifferent things in books just like on web forums

Also, don't just read forex books. Read Economics textbooks and business textbooks. For fun. I know it sounds sick.

The point is, if you think critically, you can see what is b.s. I'll tell you what is really b.s. is seminars and the like. Anyone who says they can teach me to be a millionaire by paying them $5000 to attend a seminar, buy a computer program, etc. would be making money with their system and not wasting their time trying to scam me out of my little bit of money.
"Every battle is won before it is ever fought." - Sun-tzu, The Art of War.
  • #8
  • Sep 29, 2006 11:53pm Sep 29, 2006 11:53pm
Guys, another thing I've started to notice in my newbieness is that a lot of these indicators are self-fulfilling prophecies. Fibbos, trendlines, Bollingers, etc. actually cause price action all by themselves because everyone uses them. If it hits the Fibbo, it moves. If it hits a moving average, it moves. Not because that really means anything other than the fact that there are people in the market looking at the same chart I am and buying or selling based on that. There ain't a magic bullet, let's get our $$ off those who think there is...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #9
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:27am Sep 30, 2006 12:27am
Quoting dukeofdents
Guys, another thing I've started to notice in my newbieness is that a lot of these indicators are self-fulfilling prophecies. Fibbos, trendlines, Bollingers, etc. actually cause price action all by themselves because everyone uses them. If it hits the Fibbo, it moves. If it hits a moving average, it moves. Not because that really means anything other than the fact that there are people in the market looking at the same chart I am and buying or selling based on that. There ain't a magic bullet, let's get our $$ off those who think there is...
Hey "Duke".....you like Mouteki, right? That's trend trading, isn't it (not bashing.......just haven't tried it yet)? Don't discredit the power of Fibs for exit strategies and reversals (can't tell if you were from the above???) It is amazing how the #'s repeat time and again if you really study it?! You are right about the self-fulfilling prophecies b/c there are psychological barriers.......round #'s like 1.2900 will cause the market to pause........it's a fact of trading.......the obvious is trick is figuring out what the market will do at those levels......

Read this forum.........there is a ton of great info in between all the layers of indicators and signals, etc........I don't like to use 16 confirmations to enter a trade either!!!!

Best of luck,
Jim
  • #10
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:29am Sep 30, 2006 12:29am
Now that I really think about it, what I do really doesn't matter. This is a trillions of dollars market, and I'm trading with thousands of dollars. I have to figure out what the majority of other people in the market are thinking. Not the majority based on numbers of individuals, but the majority of the money in the market. What they think is what really drives the market.

They trade based on a lot of different variables and in a lot of different time frames. Let's get back to fundamentals. If I want to go to Europe and buy an office building, I need Euros. I'm going to wait for a good time to switch my USD into EUR because it's several million $. Therefore, I'm going to seek out a bank that can give me a cheap switch deal, because I'm not going to do that myself at different price levels. I will, in this hypothetical, find a bank that will give me the best deal and just switch the money. The bank, however, will seek to maximize the trade I just made, and dump the USD at the maximum intra-day level during any price action they can find. They will also try to fool us retail traders into making the price into a level that is to their advantage, thus creating deceptive price moves. This is fundamentalism.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #11
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:32am Sep 30, 2006 12:32am
I'm not discounting any technical indicators, the more people that use any given technical indicator, the better it works. This is because more people buy or sell based on it. That's all I'm saying, and I may be wrong. Like I said before, I'm currently losing money...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #12
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:35am Sep 30, 2006 12:35am
I have it on good sources that there are several forex multi-millionaires trolling this forum, so it can't be that bad. If people want to get pissed with me, why don't we just have a civil, analytical, and intelligent discussion?
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #13
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:38am Sep 30, 2006 12:38am
[quote=dukeofdents]Now that I really think about it, what I do really doesn't matter. This is a trillions of dollars market, and I'm trading with thousands of dollars. I have to figure out what the majority of other people in the market are thinking. Not the majority based on numbers of individuals, but the majority of the money in the market. What they think is what really drives the market.QUOTE]

That's right......don't worry about the individuals.........there are so many methods out there and so many mindsets in the retail market......it's probably all a wash, and it's up to the market makers what happens to price. With that said, still just remember to treat the psychological barriers I mentioned like a mine field and tip-toe around them. (ie: setting a stop loss at these levels is something I personally avoid)
  • #14
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:41am Sep 30, 2006 12:41am
Well, dude, I sand bondo for a living and I have a college education. I should be able to do better, but I never found any opportunities. This forex shit looks like an opportunity, so I'm going to try. I like the potential independence, etc., but they say that 90% fail.
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #15
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:41am Sep 30, 2006 12:41am
Quoting dukeofdents
I have it on good sources that there are several forex multi-millionaires trolling this forum, so it can't be that bad. If people want to get pissed with me, why don't we just have a civil, analytical, and intelligent discussion?
Is someone pissed at you? I'm not......thought I was being constructive?
  • #16
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:44am Sep 30, 2006 12:44am
No, you're cool, man. I've met some resistance elsewhere, though. Everyone's a genius and I'm a dumbass, apparently. I'm really laid back and just want to learn shit...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #17
  • Sep 30, 2006 12:49am Sep 30, 2006 12:49am
Maybe I ought to just stick to fixing shitty drivers' cars, it pays better
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #18
  • Sep 30, 2006 1:10am Sep 30, 2006 1:10am
Quoting dukeofdents
Maybe I ought to just stick to fixing shitty drivers' cars, it pays better
Sorry that has happened........most of the people here that have their heads screwed on straight really just want to help, and opinions usually to get flamed if there is some actual thought behind it. Even if you still have a lot to learn (A. the majority of us do, B. Not making that assumption about you), I do respect your abstact thinking about the market....it's healthy to explore and not get tunnel vision.

Just hope my take, and experience is useful in your thinking.

In reference to our exchange on the matter, I just think it is worth contemplating why there are millions of retail customers, but there are 90% losers.........my guess.........they all ain't using the same techincals to enter. There are many so undiscplined (myself included until the recent months of my 4 year journey), that they can't follow their rules or rules learned from others.........it's that Holy Grail mentality, revenge trading, mentally frustrated, ego damaging, changing the rules, and switching methods every other day rut that dillutes the retail customers from being market movers......just my opinion.

This is why everything I have said sums up to this:
Yes, forget what other individuals are doing..........do your thing, but perhaps, keep at least the back of your mind the psychological levels that seem to play out over and over (whether it's big banks drawing lines, or retailer price manipulation to flush out stops, etc).......those #'s are real. Work your way above or below them with care, or capture all the swings in between.......either way...."it's your thang"

Hope to see you around the forum
Later Duke,
Jim

P.S. Welcome to the Forum..........if someone has not said that already?!
  • #19
  • Sep 30, 2006 1:27am Sep 30, 2006 1:27am
Thanks for the welcome, man, I'm not a forum kind of guy, I work on cars for a living. I thought it might be a good place to learn something. I know a little, but not enough. The news is my best friend right now, I need to find out how to do it when there is no news. Mouteki seems good, at least this week...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
  • #20
  • Sep 30, 2006 1:32am Sep 30, 2006 1:32am
By the way, there really is no Holy Grail. There is money management, solid analysis using a combination of tech and fundamentals, and patience. That;s what I see in my newbieness, anyhow...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
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