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Trap the Market

  • #561
  • Mar 28, 2018 4:16pm Mar 28, 2018 4:16pm
If you are tracking XAUUSD (GOLD in USD), realize that we can have further southward move on gold. The technicals on the H4 time frame are synced for further southward move perhaps with an initial target around the 1319.80/1316.80 zone, which may expose the 1304.80 handle in the days ahead. However, as price action is far from the mean, we may have a brief northward pullback before a sustainable bearish momentum. It is important to note that the larger picture (e.g. on W1 tf) has price action operating in an ascending wedge/triangle.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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  • #562
  • Mar 28, 2018 7:12pm Mar 28, 2018 7:12pm
Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking XAUUSD (GOLD in USD), realize that we can have further southward move on gold. The technicals on the H4 time frame are synced for further southward move perhaps with an initial target around the 1319.80/1316.80 zone, which may expose the 1304.80 handle in the days ahead. However, as price action is far from the mean, we may have a brief northward pullback before a sustainable bearish momentum. It is important to note that the larger picture (e.g. on W1 tf) has price action operating in an ascending wedge/triangle. I may be wrong....
Dear KeenPips,
Thank you for sharing your view. Do you think there will be a significant retracement after such a big downward move before it may continue southward?

Best Regards,
Tzamo
"Work hard, put in the effort, and follow your dreams..." -Me
  • #563
  • Mar 28, 2018 8:05pm Mar 28, 2018 8:05pm
Thanks mate for visiting my thread. If you look at the H4 or H1 time frame, being intraday charts, you will see that currently the price action is pushing northward - a retracement -, that is usually a good sign when the higher time frame has a southward bias. So, I expect the southward move to continue after this retracement. Besides, in a downtrend, we normally have a period of either brief retracement northward or sideways operation (or consolidation) followed by a further downward move. This is what I expect until at least a significant support zone is reached. The fact that on the W1 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge/triangle implies a likelihood of some retracement before the channel support trendline or even a reversal at the channel support; but if there is a period of consolidation around wedge support trendline, we may expect a breakdown of the support. At any rate, we wait to see what market does at likely turnaround zones (e.g. S/R, channel trendlines) or pivot areas.

It is normally a good practice to use at least two time frames for market analysis; a higher time frame (for a bigger directional bias) and a lower time frame (for trade setup/entry) in the direction of the higher.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting tzamo
{quote} Dear KeenPips, Thank you for sharing your view. Do you think there will be a significant retracement after such a big downward move before it may continue southward? Best Regards, Tzamo
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #564
  • Mar 28, 2018 8:35pm Mar 28, 2018 8:35pm
I like to trade when major and minor news figures are released. I feel that the market is more consistent that way, does anyone know of a service free or paid that gives a full and detailed breakdown of these figures other than forex factory that are very in depth.

For example the employment figures could look positive because only the full time is listed, and the market will go up and then when people find out the part time figures are really bad the market would crash, this often happens after a positive news report anyway but I think you know what I mean.

If I had access to the detailed figures that would really help in those circumstances when the basic figures are not giving a accurate representation of what's actually happening fundamentally.

Thank you in advance!
  • #565
  • Mar 28, 2018 8:51pm Mar 28, 2018 8:51pm
You are more likely to be fooled by the market trading news unless you are an insider. So, it is better that you develop a system that helps you understand market conditions; fundamentals and technicals, and use price action to guide your trades based on the bigger market outlook. At any rate this thread is not about news trading. It is about swing trading based on market structure and price action.

KP

Quoting Successpass
I like to trade when major and minor news figures are released. I feel that the market is more consistent that way, does anyone know of a service free or paid that gives a full and detailed breakdown of these figures other than forex factory that are very in depth. For example the employment figures could look positive because only the full time is listed, and the market will go up and then when people find out the part time figures are really bad the market would crash, this often happens after a positive news report anyway but I think you know...
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  • #566
  • Apr 1, 2018 5:14pm Apr 1, 2018 5:14pm
Price action on the AUDUSD looks ambivalent to me at this point. On the H4 time frame, recent price action is in consolidation. Bears are testing a support trendline (magenta) and price action printed a pinbar-like candlestick around the trendline toward the close of session on Friday. However, the three bearish candlesticks formed during the last three sessions on Friday failed to breach the bullish candlestick formed during the session preceding them. As last week Friday was a relatively thin trading day, we may not read much to the candlesticks formed. However, the fact that price action is still respecting the support trendline indicates that we have to wait for clarity in the early days of this week. This is more so as price action on the H4 time frame is yet to breach a resistance trendline (blue) from recent highs. Bulls may retest the resistance trendline before they give way to bears. I will stay on the sidelines for now.

KP


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  • #567
  • Apr 1, 2018 5:38pm Apr 1, 2018 5:38pm
Quoting KeenPips
You are more likely to be fooled by the market trading news unless you are an insider. So, it is better that you develop a system that helps you understand market conditions; fundamentals and technicals, and use price action to guide your trades based on the bigger market outlook. At any rate this thread is not about news trading. It is about swing trading based on market structure and price action. KP {quote}
Fundamental plays an important role in financial markets, even though most of 'us' here do not fully understand it that well.

From my observation, major news tend to help traders who trade on high time frames (4H and above). There is no need to shun trading(or close a swing position prematurely) during major news release.

Major news releases destroy day trading positions (most of the time), but aid swing trading positions (more often than not)
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #568
  • Apr 1, 2018 5:45pm Apr 1, 2018 5:45pm
Hi mate! Nobody here believes news have no place in Forex trading. The point is that trading based solely on news is likely to put you much at the mercy of smart players (big money or market makers) unless you have insider information at your disposal at the speed of light.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} Fundamental plays an important role in financial markets, even though most of 'us' here do not fully understand it that well. From my observation, major news tend to help traders who trade on high time frames (4H and above). There is no need to shun trading(or close a swing position prematurely) during major news release. Major news releases destroy day trading positions (most of the time), but aid swing trading positions (more often than not)
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #569
  • Apr 3, 2018 11:46am Apr 3, 2018 11:46am
If you are tracking AUDUSD, note that the major technical direction of the pair is southward but the market is in a corrective mode.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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  • #570
  • Apr 4, 2018 7:35am Apr 4, 2018 7:35am
Although I am bearish on the USDJPY overall until the technicals on the weekly tf turn around, presently the short-term technicals are mixed (ambivalent) but the fundamentals are in favour of a southward move.

KP
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  • #571
  • Apr 4, 2018 10:18am Apr 4, 2018 10:18am
Price action on many Forex pairs is in sideways mode. Staying on the sidelines until there is clarity of price action may be a wise decision, unless perhaps for scalpers.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #572
  • Apr 8, 2018 2:58pm Apr 8, 2018 2:58pm
If you are tracking AUDUSD, you may consider this technical perspective.

The major technicals on the daily time frame support a southward move. A resistance trendline (red) is in play and the impulsive moves are reasonably southward. But the most recent price action is within a consolidation zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). This area is close to the immediate minor horizontal resistance around the 0.77260 area. We may see price action move northward, perhaps to retest the resistance or even the monthly pivot (around 0.77450), before a southward turnaround.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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  • #573
  • Apr 8, 2018 3:33pm Apr 8, 2018 3:33pm
Although I am bearish on this pair, I will stay on the sidelines until the present consolidation of price action is over. I will wait for clarity of price action on at least the H4 time frame.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking AUDUSD, you may consider this technical perspective. The major technicals on the daily time frame support a southward move. A resistance trendline (red) is in play and the impulsive moves are reasonably southward. But the most recent price action is within a consolidation zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). This area is close to the immediate minor horizontal resistance around the 0.77260 area. We may see price action move northward, perhaps to retest the resistance or even the monthly pivot (around 0.77450), before a southward...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #574
  • Apr 8, 2018 3:36pm Apr 8, 2018 3:36pm
Here's a top-down technical perspective on USDJPY.

Price action on the weekly time frame is around a minor resistance in the 107.460 area but is heading to a former major support zone (bound by magenta coloured lines), i.e the 108.436/110.660 area, perhaps being flipped as resistance and there are other barriers ahead. A trendline (red) seen on the monthly time frame may act as resistance. A descending trendline (navy) from the high of November 2017 is still in play and may be a further hindrance to a northward move. Generally, although a northward correction is currently the sentiment, the technicals on the weekly time frame are disposed southward.

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel, which is technically a corrective phase of a longer southward trend on the H4 time frame. The 38.2 Fib zone of the recent downward swing on the weekly time frame is about 100 pips above current location of price action and this may be attractive to bulls. In fact, the area is close to the base of the immediate S/R area, around 108.430; an area which price action recently traversed southward and which is open to a retest in order to flip the zone as resistance. Should bulls take price action northward and to that area, a turnaround from there will likely be an impetus for a southward momentum. That northward pullback is likely to give me the entry for a sell trade.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #575
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:31am Apr 9, 2018 9:31am
If you are tracking GBPJPY, realize that technically the pair is on a northward mode. However, we may expect a pullback to an ascending trendline (black) on the D1 time frame or an immediate support on an intraday chart like the H4 time frame.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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  • #576
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:52am Apr 9, 2018 9:52am
Are you tracking XAUUSD (Gold in USD)? Consider the following technical perspective.

Although price action on gold is technically northward, it is presently in a correction (bound in black lines) around the 23.6/32.8 Fib retracement zone of the recent upward swing on the daily time frame. In fact, an intraday triangular pattern (magenta) can be seen on the H4 time frame and there may be a southward pullback to around the 1321.85 before a northward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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  • #577
  • Apr 9, 2018 10:18am Apr 9, 2018 10:18am
I use Fibs in my trade entries, particularly where they align with already identified pivots, including S/R areas. My Fib preferences on the pairs on my watch list are 78.6 and 61.8.

KP
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  • #578
  • Apr 12, 2018 3:22am Apr 12, 2018 3:22am
Markets are generally sideways and have been so in the past three weeks.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #579
  • Apr 12, 2018 8:06am Apr 12, 2018 8:06am
I have decided to stay on the sidelines on many markets because they are sideways, largely. A particular market that can be confusing is the AUDUSD, which is in a complex corrective phase. On the weekly time frame, an ascending channel (red) formed after a swing from the high of June 2014 to the low of January 2016. The channel is now at the 50 Fib zone of its retracement. Price action is bearing southward in a counter channel, a descending channel (chocolate). There is room for further southward move but there is little confidence in a southward momentum. A descending trendlline (black) from recent highs of candlesticks in the main channel is acting as support.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_W1_Tech_Update_12th_Apr.,_2018.png Size: 53 KB


Quoting KeenPips
Markets are generally sideways and have been so in the past three weeks. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #580
  • Apr 12, 2018 8:13am Apr 12, 2018 8:13am
Technical outlook on D1 time frame.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1_Tech_Update_12th_Apr.,_2018.png Size: 57 KB



Quoting KeenPips
I have decided to stay on the sidelines on many markets because they are sideways, largely. A particular market that can be confusing is the AUDUSD, which is in a complex corrective phase. On the weekly time frame, an ascending channel (red) formed after a swing from the high of June 2014 to the low of January 2016. The channel is now at the 50 Fib zone of its retracement. Price action is bearing southward in a counter channel, a descending channel (chocolate). There is room for further southward move but there is little confidence in a southward...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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