How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

Trumps first tweet regarding tariffs and his tax cuts, this article has been front of Traders minds, it was time. the us, uk and eu must rebalance the ledger

This will help you guys this is a Trade review from last nfp levels, you guys can see my actual entries as my platform puts trade tracking lines
NFP https://web.facebook.com/240code/vid...8168213872138/

Pleasure! the battle is oneself! control Fear and greed in the right balance and then you can run winners for longer and cut losses short. Let a trailing profit stop pick set the target as the big rewards are in the unknown. We mostly limit our potential by picking tops/targets. Execute at volume particularly at major news increases your odds. Time is important.

Warren Buffet. You can be right and make money! but being right and the right time will make you rich

George Soros gained international notoriety when, in September of 1992, he risked $10 billion on a single currency speculation when he shorted the British pound. He turned out to be right, and in a single day the trade generated a profit of $1 billion – ultimately, it was reported that his profit on the transaction almost reached $2 billion. As a result, he is famously known as the “the man who broke the Bank of England.”
Soros went off on his own in 1973, founding the hedge fund company of Soros Fund Management, which eventually evolved into the well-known and respected Quantum Fund. For almost two decades, he ran this aggressive and successful hedge fund, reportedly racking up returns in excess of 30% per year and, on two occasions, posting annual returns of more than 100%.
“I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong…I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.”
Understanding that he was not always right enabled him to cut losses short and position size right.
“My approach works not by making valid predictions but by allowing me to correct false ones.”
Soros’ is flexible in his trades, he changes his mind and reverses positions when needed. He does not marry his trades.
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”
George Soros knows that the key to profitability for him is more about big wins and small losses than his winning percentage.
“The markets are always on the side of exuberance or fear. It’s fear and greed. Right now greed has the better of it, which is rather nice (for investors) as long as it doesn’t get out of hand,”
Market trends are caused more by the extremes of investors emotions than fundamental reasons.
“Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.”
The problem is not in a losing trade but in failing to cut the loss or add to a losing position.
“The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside.”
The more extended a trend gets from its average the greater the odds of a snapback and reversion to that mean.
“If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.”
Systematic and profitable trading based on math and probabilities is usually not exciting and fun. Good trading is boring in almost all instances.
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
The obvious trade is usually not the profitable one. Profitable trades tend to be the one that is not expected and counter-intuitive.
“We try to catch new trends early and in later stages, we try to catch trend reversals. Therefore, we tend to stabilize rather than destabilize the market. We are not doing this as a public service. It is our style of making money.”
George Soros trades with the trend until the end when it starts to bend.
“The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios… The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”
George Soros likely uses some form of reactive analysis to tell him in which direction to take a trade based on how a scenario or price action unfolds. He may have multiple possibilities on what could happen and trades in the direction of the one that plays out.

Published by Charles Cornley · 17 hrs ·
FITS: Swing Position.
by charles
Note: You might not read this comprehensive details anywhere. Pardon my grammar lapses. Im only a highschool graduate and im doing my best to impart these knowledge. This article is base on my almost 1 and a half year in the forex market.
Again,FITS is not a system that I invented. Its a collaboration or rather a collective thoughts that Ive learned from George Soros Theory Of Reflexivity,Ray Dalio,Jarratt Davis,Anton Kreil,the professional trading course from amplify trading,Awesome Technical Analysis of Dennis Sherman and not to mention on a 1 book a week routine that im doing for 70+ weeks.
Technicians has their own Swing Trading Strategies. Albeit studying FITS allow me to change my strategy depending on the situation. From Scalping/Day Trading,Swing and a little bit of Carry Trading/Position. Moreover,FITS allowed me to be versatile and enabled me to shift gear from one strategy to another. Here,ill explain how I do different types of Technical trading strategies with very very minimal use of Technical Analysis.
1. Range Trading
The market is said to be ranging most of the time. Therefore,in order to capitalise the most time in the market. You have to learn Range Trading especially to those who want to trade on intraday basis. Ranging Environment mostly occur pre and post breakout scenario where price consolidates and once again large institutions were accumulating long and short positions through the edges of those range. During the absence of high impact economic news or news which results are mostly known or anticipated and or short to medium sentiments are neutral. When price action began to contract forming triangles as dubbed by technicians or inside bar pattern for price action traders. That means that the market is anticipating a news event or a breakout on a TA point of view.
2. TREND AND MOMENTUM TRADING. (Expansion)
Mostly synonymous but still quite different. These strategies were used during expansion or distribution phase of the market whether bullish or bearish. Some may used Trend and Momentum Indicators but I believe that most of these indicators were either lagging or prone to false signal. The underlying reason was,Technical Price action cant identify two objective points. Trend and Momentum by actuality (objective) or by market early speculation on expectation which is subjective. Pure Technical Traders doesnt look on the causation behind the price action on whether it shows objective data from either a hawkish policy statement,solid data from economic indicators,upgraded growth outlook etc. Meanwhile,buying on expectation is a trend or momentum base on anticipation of the data output ahead like expectation that Trump Tax Law will convince the Fed to revise its growth outlook. Though Economic indicators are objective. The ability to link leading,lagging and coincident indicator as trend trading were more on backtesting whilst momentum is more on forward looking. Therefore trend trading is a cause of more objective or known data that supports a trend while momentum is due to the markets expectation ahead of the future either short,medium or long term. Trend and Momentum appears when range and consolidation broke off. Either demand will outpace supply or vice versa. This is cause by imbalances were bias on one specific direction is very evident. It os primarily driven by mostly medium to longer term sentiments.
A good grasp on the Fundamentals,Intermarket Relations and wary of prevailing Sentiments will help you to further understand how momentum and trend were established. Its either a period of low interest rate that pushes the stock market to a bull rally and inverse a high inflation environment will serve a momentum to push commodity prices higher whilst might signal a downtrend on the stock market due to the expectation of a high interest rate.
3. PULLBACK TRADING
After Trend and Momentum were established and mostly an Expansion or Distribution phase. Price dont move on a uniform steep rise or fall. The market will eventually fade every gap on the price chart. The reason behind this is the Auction Market Principles wherein buyers will seek a lower price and sellers on a higher asking. This auction process is represented as higher highs,higher lows l,lower highs and lower lows. Gaps were mostly faded because not all orders were executed - with the exclusion of a breakout - and the market will eventually goes back to its previous price reference to execute those pending orders. Or profit taking when large institutions took their profit ,pushing price below their desired levels and buy it back.
4. Reversal Trading or Counter Trend
This is more than picking tops and bottoms. Im not using any indicators aside from Pivot Points and Fibonacci Retracement Levels. Its easy to spot a high probability reversal if you know how intermarket correlation reacts to fundamental factors to anticipate a change in medium to long term sentiment. Yes,reversal is fuelled by a sudden change on the medium to long term sentiment. Mostly,Central Banks shift on its policy statement leads to a reversal so therefore you need to glue your eyes on every CB's remark on its monetary policies from loose to tightening,from slackening to more active and or gradual to agressive. These sudden change can leads to a full reversal. In addition,Fiscal Policies can also change the landscape of the market as government policies will lead the market to speculate ahead of the policies. Also,intermarket movement can act as an early indicator of each market reversals. The relation of Stock Markets,Bonds,Currency,Commodities and how they interact will give you the full grasp and will serve as a confirmation to your speculation. Most Importantly,sentiments on long term risk on and risk off environment can drive a market reversal.
TRADING ON DURATION
Day Trading
Its a very common belief that day traders doesnt need fundamentals when Day Trading. I remember Lan Amaranth former guru once talked about it given that hes a known teacher on the local scene. Short Term Sentiments on both economical and geopolitical climate drives the market on a daily basis and that traverse on different asset classes which dictates the Capital and Trade Flow. Any market scenario whether range,trend,momentum,pullback and reversal can occur on a daily basis. A good grasp on how Sentiment Analysis works will give you an edge on how to react quickly. Sentiments either short,medium or long term can help you to speculate on the direction and gives you the idea to either cut your losses short and add on your winning positions. Therefore,excellent daytraders knows how to read market sentiments.
Swing Trading and Position Trading
is primarily driven by medium term sentiments
while position trading is driven by long term sentiments.

Great Vid"

Very Good Vid Let it run/

So remember from the entries on above usd cad chart and the aforementioned GU chart . The market can do one of 2 things once Volumes forms Sentiment after NFP. Market can Expand until the rubber band gets over stretched. (Outside Month price Discovery) or it can contract and range (Value Agreed inside value month)

I dont know what pairs will actually Expand but the risk management allows us to trade into the unknown in which the big profits are. Limit the risk by having a exit point for the trades that do not work.

Summary.

So if you have mastered all the basic Trading Concepts in this thread that are used by .Mark B Ficher, Bill Williams, George Soros, Ray Dalio, Jarratt Davis, Anton Kreil, Gartmen, Frank Ochoa, Chris Cathay and many more not excluding GS Santo Alteri then you are at the money management phase. How to run winners for longer. The last part is your enemy within, cut losses run winners

basic pivots for new Traders - basic beginners

Even that makes money - Trailing profit stops are a double-edged sword - momentum can make you make a determination to lock in some profit or give the trade more room. A lot of the decision making will be based on your portfolio balance sheet and state of mind

Great Vid: I took this Trade from Franks Analysis on Crude/he posted the TA I think last Friday

Lets take a look at what worked out this month from NFP Volume in time = Value i put what did not and why

This worked

GJ started ok for me/then i got a bit impulsive but stayed within rules came out break even and alive, as you can see the entries from 14th went to the stops/oh the white box is NFP key levels Volume in time = value

Key from above I stuck to rules. Can swim and hold head above water - that ain't drowning its a great trade idea with just a bad beat

Last chart for now coming - Example in which I stayed within rules then broke them then realised I broke the rules and quickly closed the broken rule trade..Note how quickly the marked entry and close was -know when your wrong - referring to the 22 nd

So from Above, my Trading calendar is not the entire month unless those trades carry further. Once the rubber band get overstretched i gradually get taken out of trades for that month. In most part, I don't really decide on an objective target. I do feel that Targets, in some cases limit your capacity to earn. Basically, I am running these things as far as I can and following with a profit stop at a guestimate of what looks like structure. Freedom of mind is basically my first take half profit of split my volume at 20 to 60 pips or a nice number. Alternatively hedging profits but thats another subject will cover from the next nfp

i like what this guy is saying https://www.facebook.com/240code/vid...3699282319031/