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The Federal Reserve's mandate leads or lags?

  • #61
  • Mar 8, 2018 6:17pm Mar 8, 2018 6:17pm
Take right now( past 2 hours) USDJPY, surges! Why you ask?

Treasury yields have flat lined, for the past 4 days. Remember the market breaths.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY61.jpg Size: 210 KB
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  • #62
  • Mar 11, 2018 2:15pm Mar 11, 2018 2:15pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Look at the chart you should, and find your answer you will. Socionomics is part of Elliott Wave International. Alan Hall the author is a Senior Market analysis for them, since 1995. https://www.socionomics.net/2011/04/...oom-alan-hall/ See the bias in the chart you will. Overnight currency flows away from high yield bonds, for the cost incurred by the banks. Remember the USD is the world reserve currency, that is banks will search for cheap assets to hold other then the USD, overnight. {image} {image} {image} {image}
COGSx86,

I am grateful that you are going out of your way in sharing your insights...

You have given much to chew.

Much appreciated...

Thanks
  • #63
  • Mar 11, 2018 6:03pm Mar 11, 2018 6:03pm
Treasuries continue to GAP up and continue higher. USDJPY will continue lower. Just look over the past 48 trading hours, Treasuries have continued to go higher but the USDJPY has pushed higher as well. USDJPY to continue higher, many hurdles it would have to over come.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #64
  • Mar 18, 2018 11:20am Mar 18, 2018 11:20am
Quoting COGSx86
Treasuries continue to GAP up and continue higher. USDJPY will continue lower. Just look over the past 48 trading hours, Treasuries have continued to go higher but the USDJPY has pushed higher as well. USDJPY to continue higher, many hurdles it would have to over come. {image} {image}
Master Yoda,

What is your take on the upcoming FOMC meeting. Is the rate hike imminent based on the yields staying above the fed fund rate?

Thanks
  • #65
  • Mar 19, 2018 5:09am Mar 19, 2018 5:09am
The federal funds rate vs 3-month treasuries has not had a delta this large in 10 years so expect rates to go up.

As for the USD, it will continue to get weaker obviously. But by how much I cannot say. I believe the trend will continue. Its direction and strength will be revealed as we see the push down occur. Once that push occurs, I will provide my insights on how fair price will move in relation to the original move.
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  • #66
  • Mar 19, 2018 5:10am Mar 19, 2018 5:10am
Something else to consider, it would be really interesting to see what this guy did, considering he got charged for apparently manipulating interest rates.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-a-star-trader
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  • #67
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:46pm Mar 20, 2018 9:46pm
Since the last rate hike, Dec 17th 2017 (4 months ago) Treasury yields have gone from 1.34 to 1.8. This is the fastest gain in US treasury the market has seen in the past 10 years.

What your looking at below is the markets reaction to the change in the US Federal Funds Rate. Each time you see the market make the change in direction at each rate hike. From USDJPY to EURUSD, the USD gets weaker.
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  • #68
  • Mar 24, 2018 8:10am Mar 24, 2018 8:10am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Look at the chart you should, and find your answer you will. Socionomics is part of Elliott Wave International. Alan Hall the author is a Senior Market analysis for them, since 1995. https://www.socionomics.net/2011/04/...oom-alan-hall/ See the bias in the chart you will. Overnight currency flows away from high yield bonds, for the cost incurred by the banks. Remember the USD is the world reserve currency, that is banks will search for cheap assets to hold other then the USD, overnight. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Master Yoda,

As said by you, there was a rate hike...

With some tinkering around, i created this chart based on your example. Wasn't able to create the exact scale. kindly guide as to how to do it...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.PNG Size: 162 KB


In addition to the inverse relation between Gold Fix and 3-Month Treasury, is there some other co-relation between Gold Fix and 3 Month Treasury Yield like we see in Fed Fund Rate trying to stay above the 3 Month Treasury Yield?


Thanks
  • #69
  • Mar 26, 2018 3:48am Mar 26, 2018 3:48am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Master Yoda, As said by you, there was a rate hike... With some tinkering around, i created this chart based on your example. Wasn't able to create the exact scale. kindly guide as to how to do it... {image} In addition to the inverse relation between Gold Fix and 3-Month Treasury, is there some other co-relation between Gold Fix and 3 Month Treasury Yield like we see in Fed Fund Rate trying to stay above the 3 Month Treasury Yield? Thanks

What do you see on the chart, you posted? Nothing hidden about the relationship. The one thing I would be watching however is the GOLD to SILVER RATIO.

We have determined GOLD moves higher as interest rates have gone higher, essentially assets looking for places other then the USD to store their money. We then can say because SILVER and GOLD move together the correlation is important. Over the past few weeks we have see the correlation of GOLD and Silver separate. This would be considered one of the largest divergence's the pair has ever seen since 1971. Its almost a 4$ spread. You will see Silver reach 20 in the not so distant future.
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  • #70
  • Mar 26, 2018 3:51am Mar 26, 2018 3:51am
Great thread, thanks!
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #71
  • Apr 1, 2018 8:17am Apr 1, 2018 8:17am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} What do you see on the chart, you posted? Nothing hidden about the relationship. The one thing I would be watching however is the GOLD to SILVER RATIO. We have determined GOLD moves higher as interest rates have gone higher, essentially assets looking for places other then the USD to store their money. We then can say because SILVER and GOLD move together the correlation is important. Over the past few weeks we have see the correlation of GOLD and Silver separate. This would be considered one of the largest divergence's the pair has ever...
Thank You Master Yoda...
  • #72
  • Apr 5, 2018 5:15am Apr 5, 2018 5:15am
Look at the charts we should. FED policy tied to Trumps inauguration and trade policy has changed the landscape.

Since Trumps inauguration the DXY has dropped from its highs and the stock market pushed higher. Since the Stock market has met headwinds the DXY has consolidated. Tied in with the FED policy of increasing rates, foreign banks are looking for places they will get higher returns on over night rates in the US. At the same time push investors into BONDS for security. Hence the drop in the stock market and the drop in 3 month treasuries.

Tie this in with the BOJ talking about easing. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...itative-easing

Don't get me wrong, this could all change at any time but currently this is what is happening.
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  • #73
  • Apr 13, 2018 3:46am Apr 13, 2018 3:46am
AN eye, a trader must keep.
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  • #74
  • May 1, 2018 12:58pm May 1, 2018 12:58pm
With tomorrows rate hike decision, the USD has been on a tear. But the FED might put an end to that.

Couple things to look at:

1) 3-month treasuries have been hovering ahead of the FED funds rate now for a few weeks, and is gaining momentum again.
2) Oil has risen, with OPEC cutting supply some more. (Bad for the USD)
3) The USD needs to breathe.
4) Morgan Stanley (1st or 2nd largest forex player) wanted 110. So looks like they get their wish or close enough - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10922830
5) CME gives the rate percentage 94.3% - http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html

But remember the market always reacts afterwards, to the FEDs decision.
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  • #75
  • May 1, 2018 1:12pm May 1, 2018 1:12pm
Quoting COGSx86
With tomorrows rate hike decision, the USD has been on a tear. But the FED might put an end to that. Couple things to look at: 1) 3-month treasuries have been hovering ahead of the FED funds rate now for a few weeks, and is gaining momentum again. 2) Oil has risen, with OPEC cutting supply some more. (Bad for the USD) 3) The USD needs to breathe. 4) Morgan Stanley (1st or 2nd largest forex player) wanted 110. So looks like they get their wish or close enough - https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10922830...
Master Yoda,

Thanks for another wonderful tool. It says 94.3% chance of no hike, but as we can see Treasuries are leading the FED fund rate. What is your take?

And how was your experience using the CME tool?

Thanks
  • #76
  • May 1, 2018 1:21pm May 1, 2018 1:21pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} Master Yoda, Thanks for another wonderful tool. It says 94.3% chance of no hike, but as we can see Treasuries are leading the FED fund rate. What is your take? And how was your experience using the CME tool? Thanks
thanks for the correction,
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  • #77
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:30pm Jun 5, 2018 11:30pm
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  • #78
  • Jun 6, 2018 12:02am Jun 6, 2018 12:02am
Quoting COGSx86
{image}{image}
Good one Master Y...
  • #79
  • Jun 13, 2018 1:22pm Jun 13, 2018 1:22pm
USD responding, as per expected, after FED rate hikes.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #80
  • Jun 13, 2018 1:33pm Jun 13, 2018 1:33pm
Quoting COGSx86
USD responding, as per expected, after FED rate hikes.
Right on the dollar as usual Master Yoda...
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