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  • #3,181
  • Mar 22, 2018 2:14pm Mar 22, 2018 2:14pm
Quoting Svolacius
Hello everyone, I hope you're all doing well. I lost on EUR/JPY trade but the thing is that I cannot completely understand why. I know that the trade was not a perfect setup but I still thought it was a likely winner. Strat, you told me, that I missed the Big Boss, but this pair has been in an uptrend since end of 2016. That's what I see from BB. Yes, at 135.50 level price rejected heavily and went right to 130 level. On Boss chart, price stopped at 130 level for a couple of weeks and was close to SS bottom. I thought it was a nice support confluence...
Well, for me that last BB candle is an awful lot of down momentum. Do you really want to trade against that?

EDIT: and I see strat beat me to it!
  • #3,182
  • Mar 22, 2018 2:51pm Mar 22, 2018 2:51pm
As a discussion in on about EURJPY, I closed short position for a small profit today, leaving it to solve 130 confluence first. After it I will short it again.
What is more beautiful today is USDCAD. Worker got supported by strong previous resistance which became support now, and by Strat Shadow. I see price targeting 1.3250-1.33, but will keep a close I what price will do at 1.30.

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  • #3,183
  • Mar 22, 2018 2:52pm Mar 22, 2018 2:52pm
Quoting Rub
{quote} Well, for me that last BB candle is an awful lot of down momentum. Do you really want to trade against that? EDIT: and I see strat beat me to it!
Yes, I see it now. Great that I can learn from all you guys.
  • #3,184
  • Mar 22, 2018 3:08pm Mar 22, 2018 3:08pm
[quote=strat;10899195]NFP and FOMC {quote} There is no need to miss with my strategy, Yomi................................will discuss more[/quote

Strat maybe you could comment on this.

Took this one just before news as a valid setup.Just to make it clear I am still paper trading and not sure it was wise even though it paid off.
Thanks
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  • #3,185
  • Mar 22, 2018 7:23pm Mar 22, 2018 7:23pm
Just after reading the thread, and using all my knowledge on price action from this thread, i would like to thank Strat and all , and wanted to share my view and a prospective trade on EUR CAD, that i placed a stop order on.

Big Boss: Trend is up , and major resistance 1.59270 is broken and being re-tested.

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Boss: Trend is up, looking at the 20 and 50 and though the weekly candle is bearish, it is actually retesting the major resistance turned support 1.59270.

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Worker : Worker has some interesting price action. A hammer at the major resistance 1.59270, with all the tail below the support and small squarish body above.
Secondly this support 1.59270 falls on 61.8% retracement on the fib for the latest swing .

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I have placed a stop order a few pips above the top of the hammer and a stoploss a few pips below the low of the hammer.

All your inputs will be appreciated on my analysis and this trade.

Thanks
Max
  • #3,186
  • Mar 22, 2018 11:20pm Mar 22, 2018 11:20pm
Well, when I couldn't sleep last night to placed a buy stop on USD/CAD based on my analysis over last weekend and the 4hr chart. BB and boss are up, and price was at a support level on daily. Entry was placed a few pips above the 4hr bullish engulfing bar and triggered after I went back to bed.

I also had an entry trigger in EUR/JPY, but looking at it now it's a bit close to support. The perils of placing these things on your phone...
Mostly it's alright, it's just the AUD, NZD and JPY all tend to move while I'm at work so I look at the close for those on my phone.
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  • #3,187
  • Mar 22, 2018 11:55pm Mar 22, 2018 11:55pm
Quoting Rub
Well, when I couldn't sleep last night to placed a buy stop on USD/CAD based on my analysis over last weekend and the 4hr chart. BB and boss are up, and price was at a support level on daily. Entry was placed a few pips above the 4hr bullish engulfing bar and triggered after I went back to bed. I also had an entry trigger in EUR/JPY, but looking at it now it's a bit close to support. The perils of placing these things on your phone... Mostly it's alright, it's just the AUD, NZD and JPY all tend to move while I'm at work so I look at the close for...
These caught my eye as well. But decided to wait till Monday closing to reevaluate.

Have a good weekend Rub.

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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,188
  • Mar 23, 2018 12:01am Mar 23, 2018 12:01am
Strat is keeping me up late.... I get to reading this thread and loose track of time. Need to drag my tired butt to bed.

Last night I was seeing the Strat Shadow in my sleep.

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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,189
  • Mar 23, 2018 12:07am Mar 23, 2018 12:07am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} These caught my eye as well. But decided to wait till Monday closing to reevaluate. Have a good weekend Rub. {image} {image} {image}
Can't help thinking I should've stayed in my AUD/JPY short, but hell I stuck to my plan. At this stage that's what counts, not any of the fancy trend trading or other stuff.

And thanks, supposed to be a wet weekend here, but tonight is beautiful. Planning on taking a spin on my motorbike. Have a good one yourself.
  • #3,190
  • Edited 4:51am Mar 23, 2018 4:14am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting maxleecool
Just after reading the thread, and using all my knowledge on price action from this thread, i would like to thank Strat and all , and wanted to share my view and a prospective trade on EUR CAD, that i placed a stop order on. Big Boss: Trend is up , and major resistance 1.59270 is broken and being re-tested. {image} Boss: Trend is up, looking at the 20 and 50 and though the weekly candle is bearish, it is actually retesting the major resistance turned support 1.59270. {image} Worker : Worker has some interesting...

Hello Max

Great to see an analysis based on longer time frames.

A couple of points and comments from me as well as a question to you.


A hammer at the major resistance 1.59270
First, the candle on the worker you identify as a "hammer" is a doji on my charts (NY close). It does look a little different on your chart, but is still not a hammer, (but is nicely off the 20EMA).

Big Boss: Trend is up , and major resistance 1.59270
The BB has certainly been pretty much one-way traffic up for the past 6 months. The high (so far) this month is at 1.6152 on my charts and we have a full week before the month ends. Where the candle will CLOSE is anyone's guess at this point. If you were to scroll out on your BB chart you will note that price has not been at the level you identify (1.5927) for more than 2 years. Furthermore, price has not closed above that number for nearly a decade - June 2009 to be precise.

Now my question: I am curious as to how you have come up with the (precise) number 1.5927 as "major resistance turned support"? I cannot find this particular number on any of my bars (but your broker may be using a London close(?) in which case it may represent a candle high or close on your charts. If so, please let me know).

For me, the number I am watching at this point is the January 2016 high (1.6104 on my charts). If we cannot close above this number, then I am looking to short. [Actually, I'm already short but more a case of "sending out the scouts" as Strat likes to say. I am not holding shorts - yet - as there is no PA to justify doing so - yet. Month end close wrt 1.6104 is key for me].

cheers, Trogger.
  • #3,191
  • Mar 23, 2018 5:22am Mar 23, 2018 5:22am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Hello Max Great to see an analysis based on longer time frames. A couple of points and comments from me as well as a question to you. A hammer at the major resistance 1.59270 First, the candle on the worker you identify as a "hammer" is a doji on my charts (NY close). It does look a little different on your chart, but is still not a hammer, (but is nicely off the 20EMA). Big Boss: Trend is up , and major resistance 1.59270 The BB has certainly been pretty much one-way traffic up for the past 6 months. The high (so far) this month is at 1.6152...
Hi Trogger,

Thanks so much for your inputs. My Broker does use the London Close Charts and also does show the worthless sunday candle, and looks like that is one of the reasons my charts show hammer what is a doji on your charts.

I will try using NY Close Charts to do further analysis, which are more accurate.

Also I was under and impression that the more a level is tested, the lesser strength it holds. And since this level is one of those i was assuming it to be v strong. Would be great if you could guide me on this one. Last close above this was indeed in 2009, so shall i consider it a strong or a weak level.

Thanks again for your view.
Rgds
Max
  • #3,192
  • Mar 23, 2018 9:28am Mar 23, 2018 9:28am
I think we need an indicator on our charts....

The WWSS

It is a very useful tool I see .


The What Would Strat Say.

I'm holding two 5m positions now that are taking their sweet time moving. Started strong, but maybe it is a Fizzle Friday. I have thought about shutting them down but I remembered multiple places in the threads where Strat is telling us to pay attention to the shadow. So paying attention. US session has made new little highs so all indications are hang on.

Will post charts when positions close. Profit or loss.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,193
  • Mar 23, 2018 9:50am Mar 23, 2018 9:50am
EURJPY & USDCAD

Quoting BaliuxXx
As a discussion in on about EURJPY, I closed short position for a small profit today, leaving it to solve 130 confluence first. After it I will short it again. What is more beautiful today is USDCAD. Worker got supported by strong previous resistance which became support now, and by Strat Shadow. I see price targeting 1.3250-1.33, but will keep a close I what price will do at 1.30. {image}
USDCAD Worker might look "beautiful", Donatas, but the Boss and Big Boss do not and in fact look "ugly"

What would be "beautiful" would be if the Hammer was at the bottom of the swing and reaching down to test the Strat Shadow.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,194
  • Mar 23, 2018 9:59am Mar 23, 2018 9:59am
Quoting Rufus
I think we need an indicator on our charts.... The WWSS It is a very useful tool I see . The What Would Strat Say. I'm holding two 5m positions now that are taking their sweet time moving. Started strong, but maybe it is a Fizzle Friday. I have thought about shutting them down but I remembered multiple places in the threads where Strat is telling us to pay attention to the shadow. So paying attention. US session has made new little highs so all indications are hang on. Will post charts when positions close. Profit or loss.

Closed them before targets. Heading out for work.

GBPJPY
15 pip gain
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GBPNZD
4 pip loss

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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,195
  • Mar 23, 2018 10:06am Mar 23, 2018 10:06am
GBPAUD M5

[quote=Mick1706;10899852]
Quoting strat
NFP and FOMC {quote} There is no need to miss with my strategy, Yomi................................will discuss more[/quote Strat maybe you could comment on this. Took this one just before news as a valid setup.Just to make it clear I am still paper trading and not sure it was wise even though it paid off. Thanks {image}
First, trading News and specifically, NFP and FOMC is not for the feint hearted.

The beauty about Technical Analysis and Chart Reading is that they are all set up to support the news. In other words, PRICE reaction from a news event moves in the already established sentiment. Those who ""really"" understand PASR will realise the full value of this. It is very rare that the news moves PRICE opposite to the already established sentiment; even the interference by SNB on two occasions was in line with PASR and sentiment

You did well - might I say "The Luck of the Irish?"
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,196
  • Mar 23, 2018 10:14am Mar 23, 2018 10:14am
USDCAD

Quoting Rub
Well, when I couldn't sleep last night to placed a buy stop on USD/CAD based on my analysis over last weekend and the 4hr chart. BB and boss are up, and price was at a support level on daily. Entry was placed a few pips above the 4hr bullish engulfing bar and triggered after I went back to bed. I also had an entry trigger in EUR/JPY, but looking at it now it's a bit close to support. The perils of placing these things on your phone... Mostly it's alright, it's just the AUD, NZD and JPY all tend to move while I'm at work so I look at the close for...
See Post 3193

Why on earth would you buy when there is a doji shooting star at resistance let alone what the Strat Shadow is telling you?

I have no sympathy whatsoever for anyone who LOSES MONEY when they place orders by phone!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,197
  • Edited 11:27am Mar 23, 2018 10:29am | Edited 11:27am
EURCAD

Quoting maxleecool
Just after reading the thread, and using all my knowledge on price action from this thread, i would like to thank Strat and all , and wanted to share my view and a prospective trade on EUR CAD, that i placed a stop order on. Big Boss: Trend is up , and major resistance 1.59270 is broken and being re-tested. {image} Boss: Trend is up, looking at the 20 and 50 and though the weekly candle is bearish, it is actually retesting the major resistance turned support 1.59270. {image} Worker : Worker has some interesting price action. A hammer at the major...
Wild Thing has already given some excellent "pearls of wisdom" for you so there is little to add from me except to endorse his wisdom.

What I will say is change your broker so that your candles CLOSE at 5pm New York time. This is important for you to be in line with all other charts on here but more important, be in line with the Big Boys who use a 5pm New York close.

Big Boss: Trend is up , and major resistance 1.59270 is broken and being re-tested.

Wild Thing has already told you this but just to reinforce his words, NOTHING is broken UNTIL there is a CLOSE no matter what the time frame is. PASR is based on CLOSED candles, nothing else.

Good analysis.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,198
  • Mar 23, 2018 10:33am Mar 23, 2018 10:33am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} These caught my eye as well. But decided to wait till Monday closing to reevaluate. Have a good weekend Rub. {image} {image} {image}
But decided to wait till Monday closing to reevaluate

Good idea!

Those median trend lines, regression lines or whatever they are will screw your understanding of PASR up BIG TIME!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,199
  • Mar 23, 2018 10:36am Mar 23, 2018 10:36am
Quoting strat
{quote} But decided to wait till Monday closing to reevaluate Good idea! Those median trend lines, regression lines or whatever they are will screw your understanding of PASR up BIG TIME!
I was looking at those median lines today...already got rid of them.

The simplicity in the charts communicate the most. Hell...Sometimes they yell at you.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,200
  • Mar 23, 2018 10:37am Mar 23, 2018 10:37am
PASR

Quoting maxleecool
{quote} Hi Trogger, Thanks so much for your inputs. My Broker does use the London Close Charts and also does show the worthless sunday candle, and looks like that is one of the reasons my charts show hammer what is a doji on your charts. I will try using NY Close Charts to do further analysis, which are more accurate. Also I was under and impression that the more a level is tested, the lesser strength it holds. And since this level is one of those i was assuming it to be v strong. Would be great if you could guide me on this one. Last close above...
Also I was under and impression that the more a level is tested, the lesser strength it holds.

You have it upside down! The more a level is tested, the STRONGER and MORE IMPORTANT that level is. There are many charts in my "old" original thread demonstrating this.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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