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  • #3,121
  • Mar 20, 2018 11:38am Mar 20, 2018 11:38am
New short on EURJPY H4:

Entered below low of BEEB with traget to bottom of WCC.

Entry at H4 previous support but it looks like that may have been a stop run.
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  • #3,122
  • Mar 20, 2018 12:09pm Mar 20, 2018 12:09pm
Hi Strat!

Nice thread and very informative.

I have been trading SR for over 9 years now and are still learning. Here are a trade i'm watching. The EURJPY turned nicely at the resistance (old support). I will enter a buy stop under the pinbar if the candle look's like this after the close.

As I told, I'm still learning this strategy and have read every single post/note you have wrote. In my head this setup are valid.
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  • #3,123
  • Mar 20, 2018 12:20pm Mar 20, 2018 12:20pm
Running through my charts and there are some things that I would like to share and in that way clarify to myself:

NZD/USD: Last week's candle closed below WCC bottom after trying to push through Big Boss (thick red line) resistance. If we look at Worker chart, price respected SS last time (where I took my long by the way!) but this time looks like price is going right through it, time will tell. Although it would look like a great short opportunity to me I also see that Big Boss SS is right below the price right now and I'm not very keen on placing a trade here.

EUR/JPY: From Boss chart I can see that price is at Big Boss support level and SS. I would still consider this pair in uptrend from Boss chart.Price action does not tell me any particular direction. Worker on the other hand, formed a double bottom at the support level. Yesterday closed as BUEB, so I would see it as bullish impulse. This would also mean that Worker is moving in the same direction that Boss is. I've got to admit that I took a long trade on this pair after yesterday's candle closed. However, today does not look very bullish. Where I went wrong with this one?
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  • #3,124
  • Mar 20, 2018 12:40pm Mar 20, 2018 12:40pm
Quoting strat
Calm down and make trading your "friend" - you are the one making it your "enemy". You WILL get there, just give yourself time.
Thanks Strat, what you said about me making trading my enemy really resonates with me, I will reflect on it.
I can feel I am making progress, and I know I shouldn't be impatient. Knowing the right thing and doing the right thing are two separate missions that I am locked on. As for M5, it has tremendous value about feeling more at ease with higher TF trading as you see a ton of configurations.

Best,
D
  • #3,125
  • Mar 20, 2018 12:43pm Mar 20, 2018 12:43pm
Quoting strat
Stocks, Futures & Commodities {quote} I did go back to stocks but it was not as easy as he made out. The big problem was having to buy the stocks which meant not only having a very large account but a lot of that account tied up in one stock. The other disadvantage was not being able to sell a stock you don't own.
I come from the equities world and I am surprised by your problems.
Have you ever tried CFD brokers that provide FX-like leverage and the ability to sell short?
  • #3,126
  • Mar 20, 2018 12:51pm Mar 20, 2018 12:51pm
NZDUSD & EURJPY

Quoting Svolacius
Running through my charts and there are some things that I would like to share and in that way clarify to myself: NZD/USD: Last week's candle closed below WCC bottom after trying to push through Big Boss (thick red line) resistance. If we look at Worker chart, price respected SS last time (where I took my long by the way!) but this time looks like price is going right through it, time will tell. Although it would look like a great short opportunity to me I also see that Big Boss SS is right below the price right now and I'm not very keen on placing...
EURJPY Where I went wrong with this one?

You ignored the Big Boss!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,127
  • Mar 20, 2018 12:56pm Mar 20, 2018 12:56pm
EURJPY

Quoting Elhemano1
Hi Strat! Nice thread and very informative. I have been trading SR for over 9 years now and are still learning. Here are a trade i'm watching. The EURJPY turned nicely at the resistance (old support). I will enter a buy stop under the pinbar if the candle look's like this after the close. As I told, I'm still learning this strategy and have read every single post/note you have wrote. In my head this setup are valid. {image}
I will enter a buy stop under the pinbar if the candle look's like this after the close

I will save you the trouble - just send the money for your trade to my account.

have read every single post/note you have wrote

I doubt it based on what you have just written!

In my head this setup are valid

Suggest you get a new head!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,128
  • Mar 20, 2018 12:59pm Mar 20, 2018 12:59pm
Quoting strat
EURJPY {quote} I will enter a buy stop under the pinbar if the candle look's like this after the close I will save you the trouble - just send the money for your trade to my account. have read every single post/note you have wrote I doubt it based on what you have just written! In my head this setup are valid Suggest you get a new head!
Haha, I wrote wrong. Should have been "a sell stop under the day low". I will look for a sell. The Big boss and Boss are pointing down. Correct me if i'm wrong.
  • #3,129
  • Mar 20, 2018 1:02pm Mar 20, 2018 1:02pm
Quoting strat
And another from February 19, 2009: Indicator update While everyone seems to have fallen asleep here, I thought I would share my experience with the "latest and greatest, award winning" indicators. I was sent (sarcastically, I think), several links to the very latest indicators available which I normally would just delete but seeing as I had Time on My Side (Rolling Stones), I took a look. They look so colourful and fancy now but STILL, all they are doing is painting a very beautiful picture of what happened in the past.
While the SEC and CFTC and everyone else likes to claim, "The past is no indication of future performance," the truth is exactly the opposite. The past is a GREAT indicator of future performance.

Your own system, relying on S/R and a few candlestick patterns uses PAST EVENTS in an effort to predict what will happen in the future (the next candle).

My point is that bashing on other indicators for showing what happened in the past seems a bit unfair.

Just because the indicators work off of a system different than your own doesn't make their usage wrong and/or incorrect.

In fact, what if someone took your system and added MACD or some other oscillator to it to provide additional indication of overbought/oversold conditions as a confirming indicator that the bounce predicted by your system is indeed likely to happen?

Or used an Ichimoku indicator to see that the bounce point predicted by your system matches up with levels there as a confirming indicator.

My point here is that your system works fantastically for you because it's how you think. You keep it simple because for you that works better.

However it seems like you are putting down people for having a different trading style or method simply because it isn't your trading style and method.

I'm not even remotely suggesting that your method doesn't work. But to suggest someone else's doesn't or that they are overcomplicating or whatever seems unrealistic (unless you know the person isn't a winning trader).

Something to consider
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #3,130
  • Mar 20, 2018 1:06pm Mar 20, 2018 1:06pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I come from the equities world and I am surprised by your problems. Have you ever tried CFD brokers that provide FX-like leverage and the ability to sell short?
CFD brokers are not available to US traders!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You missed the most important point - I know Forex like the back of my hand plus I only have 28 pairs of which I only focus on 8. How many stocks are there to choose from?

Trading approximately 1.46 billion shares each day, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is the leading stock exchange in the world. The exchange trades stocks for some 2,800 companies, ranging from blue chips to new high-growth companies.

The NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) is an electronic stock exchange with more than 3,300 company listings. It currently has a greater trading volume than any other U.S. stock exchange, carrying out approximately 1.8 billion trades per day.

I find it much easier to trade 8 pairs or so than 6,100!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,131
  • Mar 20, 2018 1:13pm Mar 20, 2018 1:13pm
PASR

Quoting strat
EURJPY {quote} I will enter a buy stop under the pinbar if the candle look's like this after the close I will save you the trouble - just send the money for your trade to my account. have read every single post/note you have wrote I doubt it based on what you have just written! In my head this setup are valid Suggest you get a new head!
I have written more times than I care to remember in this thread and my "old" original thread that there are NO PINBARS in PASR - so much for you ""have read every single post/note you have wrote""

Pinbars are for those who do Needlework!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,132
  • Mar 20, 2018 1:36pm Mar 20, 2018 1:36pm
Quoting strat
Stocks, Futures & Commodities {quote} I did go back to stocks but it was not as easy as he made out. The big problem was having to buy the stocks which meant not only having a very large account but a lot of that account tied up in one stock. The other disadvantage was not being able to sell a stock you don't own. To combat these I tried Options...
Thanks a lot for your answer, Strat. I did look at stocks for a couple days but after looking at forex non-stop for the past several months, the stock charts just didn't look as 'clean' to me. I will continue on the path with PASR on Forex.
  • #3,133
  • Mar 20, 2018 1:56pm Mar 20, 2018 1:56pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Thanks Strat, what you said about me making trading my enemy really resonates with me, I will reflect on it. I can feel I am making progress, and I know I shouldn't be impatient. Knowing the right thing and doing the right thing are two separate missions that I am locked on. As for M5, it has tremendous value about feeling more at ease with higher TF trading as you see a ton of configurations. Best, D
Hey Dario
If you are a reader you may enjoy this book. One of my favorites. There are others I've read if you want more...
Attached Image
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #3,134
  • Mar 20, 2018 2:08pm Mar 20, 2018 2:08pm
Quoting strat
EURJPY {quote} Might be a nice big engulfing bar on EUR/JPY when it closes Wishful thinking Rub. What does the Big Boss and Boss tell you?
They both scream down to me, although it's at support. I've not jumped into the trade though. Must be learning something!
  • #3,135
  • Mar 20, 2018 3:58pm Mar 20, 2018 3:58pm
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Hey Dario If you are a reader you may enjoy this book. One of my favorites. There are others I've read if you want more...{image}
Thanks Rufus, I'll give it a read.
Last time I lost a million dollars, I unfortunately learnt nothing except the need to get a job.
  • #3,136
  • Mar 20, 2018 4:05pm Mar 20, 2018 4:05pm
Quoting strat
{quote} CFD brokers are not available to US traders!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You missed the most important point - I know Forex like the back of my hand plus I only have 28 pairs of which I only focus on 8. How many stocks are there to choose from? Trading approximately 1.46 billion shares each day, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is the leading stock exchange in the world. The exchange trades stocks for some 2,800 companies, ranging from blue chips to new high-growth companies. The NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated...
That deserves a separate conversation at another time but I find equity trading much much easier than FX trading when you combine fundamental analysis and PASR on weekly charts. As for the number of stocks, you don't need to trade individual stocks, sector ETFs would be much more powerful and more stress free for an investor IMO
  • #3,137
  • Mar 20, 2018 6:29pm Mar 20, 2018 6:29pm
Quoting strat
{quote} What does your PLAN tell you?
Hello Strat, please dont Laugh but i dont know where to take profit.

In my head are:

*TP to the next Resistance/Support
*TP in the first signal of sellers or buyers (hammers, SS at Support or Resistance)

Just thinking in more.... Please dont laugh haha.
  • #3,138
  • Mar 20, 2018 11:31pm Mar 20, 2018 11:31pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} While the SEC and CFTC and everyone else likes to claim, "The past is no indication of future performance," the truth is exactly the opposite. The past is a GREAT indicator of future performance. Your own system, relying on S/R and a few candlestick patterns uses PAST EVENTS in an effort to predict what will happen in the future (the next candle). My point is that bashing on other indicators for showing what happened in the past seems a bit unfair. Just because the indicators work off of a system different than your own doesn't make their...
No body was saying indicators do not work. They helped in our trading in a certain way. Otherwise, they won't be around for so long. Only that they are lagging.

We here had gone through the Indicators Forest for many years and got lost. Finally we landed in this simple and peaceful garden. Strat is very a knowledgeable and non-selfish person. He just wants to teach us the simple and short cut way so that we can be as successful as he. What we need to do is to put in our hard work.

If you can't bear this teacher's way of leading us, you don't have to join us. Thank you.
  • #3,139
  • Mar 21, 2018 4:33am Mar 21, 2018 4:33am
AUD/NZD Trade

I entered a new daily trade this morning on this pair.
This is a risky trade as it is counter trend so I have a tight stop under the low of yesterdays BUEB. Only a small position (half my normal size) to see what price does. If we put in a higher high I will look to add to the position on the next higher low with price action.

BB - Has been in a downtrend for the last 4 months and closed below the strat shadow last month. This makes me cautious about the trade and as I have mentioned this is counter trend. The big boss has put in higher lows and higher highs since January 2016 however so looks like BB trend is reversing.

Boss - Has tested monthly support area a few times in the last 5 weeks and again tested it this week but has not managed to break through and actually close below support.

Worker - put in a double bottom off the monthly support I have on my chart which has also been tested on the daily two further times and rejected. Yesterday we had a BUEB at support and I placed my entry above the high of yesterdays candle which got triggered this morning.

First target is strat shadow top around 108.200 (possibly 108 BRN and will monitor price at that level) and second target is monthly resistance at 1.09942.

The reason I took this trade is the R:R is good at 4:1. I will be monitoring every night to see what price does around the strat shadow as if the trade is wrong this is where I would expect a reversal down to happen and I will get out of the trade to preserve capital.

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Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #3,140
  • Edited 5:26am Mar 21, 2018 4:45am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Hey Dario If you are a reader you may enjoy this book. One of my favorites. There are others I've read if you want more...{image}
I came across this while I was looking for the book. It doesn't replace it but could help others along the way. The teachings are very similar to what Strat has been saying for years... I put in red what resonated with me

"I just finished reading the book “What I learned losing a million Dollars” by Jim Paul and while reading it, I couldn’t stop making annotations and highlighting passages. As the title suggests, the book deals with the aspects of losing money in trading and the author BRILLIANTLY describes the components of losing and dealing with losses as a trader.
The following 14 quotes and re-phrased passages are, in my opinion, vital to understand as a trader. Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan used some great analogies and examples that show why trading is so different from other activities and how these unique characteristics make it so “easy” to lose money if you don’t know what you are doing:

  1. The potential of initial and temporary success only exists in trading. You can’t just call yourself a brain surgeon and get lucky while messing around in someone’s head. And just stepping on stage and trying to give a violin concert if you have never touched a violin before won’t end too well either.
  2. Right, wrong, win and lose are inappropriate terms for describing the participation in the markets. In 20/20 hindsight, decisions might be good or bad but not right or wrong. With regards to the markets, only expressed opinions can be right or wrong. Market positions are either profitable or unprofitable.
  3. There are as many ways to make money in the markets as there are participants. But there are only very few ways to lose.
  4. A light-bulb manufacturer understands that 2 out of 10 bulbs will not work; a fruit seller knows that some apples will be foul. Those losses are expected. In trading, we don’t expect to lose when we enter a trade. Unexpected losses are hard to deal with. Acknowledging that losses are part of the game and accepting the losses are two very different things.
  5. In trading, losses are treated as mistakes and from early on, we have been taught that mistakes are bad and have to be avoided.
  6. If you know exactly how much you are going to win, but don’t know how much you can lose, you are denying losses.
  7. Trading is an activity without a beginning and an end. In an activity without an end, you can always make decisions and change your decisions based on the current situation. A football game, a roulette spin or blackjack have defined beginnings and endings; after the game is over, you can’t change anything. You have to accept the outcome. It’s not open for interpretation; you (your team) have lost or won. In trading, the “game” (activity) never ends and your trade (potentially) never ends. Because your trade doesn’t end, your loss is never final and it could always turn around.
  8. Rules are hard and fast. Tools have some flexibility. Fools neither have rules nor tools.
  9. A scenario might have been an acceptable trade based on someone else’s rules. Profitable opportunities will occur that you won’t participate in. Your rules will only enable you to engage in some of the millions of opportunities.
  10. You can’t calculate the probability of having a winner. You can only calculate how much you are going to lose. All you can do is manage your losses and not predict your profits.
  11. People usually pick the exit point as a function of their entry point and it’s usually some arbitrary Dollar amount.
  12. People rationalize a trade idea by expressing the trade in terms of the money odd’s fallacy – “it’s a three to one reward-risk ratio! I’ll risk $500 to make $1500”. The reward-risk ratio gives no information about the likelihood of winning a trade.
  13. People who ask, “Why is the market up or down?” don’t want to know why. They only want to hear the reasons that justify their losing position.
  14. The last moment of objectivity for the roulette player is the moment before he places his bet and the wheels starts spinning. After that, he can’t do anything anymore to lose more money. For the market participant, the last moment of objectivity is the moment before he places his trade. But after that, he can still do a lot to lose more money. That’s why all your decisions and plans have to be made pre-trade."

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