(binned per thread starter’s request) CookieMonsta's Journey Into | Page 29 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

My Journey Into Options 0 replies

HarryPlopper's Journey Into ADX Land 108 replies

$1K into $1M Journey 26 replies

My journey to a 20% account increase per month 7 replies

Attachments: (binned per thread starter’s request) CookieMonsta's Journey Into
Exit Attachments

(binned per thread starter’s request) CookieMonsta's Journey Into

  • #561
  • Mar 17, 2018 1:25am Mar 17, 2018 1:25am
Cookie cookie!
  • #562
  • Mar 17, 2018 4:03am Mar 17, 2018 4:03am
Quoting MoneyFocus
Cookie cookie!
Sup, nice month you got there.

You ever considered doing proprietary trading?

With your performance, and if you tone down your leverage abit, and doing what you been doing consistently, should be easy. Can reach your goal alot faster too.
  • #563
  • Mar 17, 2018 4:13am Mar 17, 2018 4:13am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Sup, nice month you got there. You ever considered doing proprietary trading? With your performance, and if you tone down your leverage abit, and doing what you been doing consistently, should be easy. Can reach your goal alot faster too.
No lobang.

Don't like to work for others. Haha.
  • #564
  • Mar 17, 2018 4:18am Mar 17, 2018 4:18am
Quoting MoneyFocus
{quote} No lobang. Don't like to work for others. Haha.

Understand, freedom is priceless
  • #565
  • Mar 17, 2018 9:03am Mar 17, 2018 9:03am
What's your plan for the coming week? PM me on mobile, I have one in mind, could share with you.
  • #566
  • Edited Mar 18, 2018 12:00am Mar 17, 2018 11:16pm | Edited Mar 18, 2018 12:00am
Quoting MoneyFocus
What's your plan for the coming week? PM me on mobile, I have one in mind, could share with you.
next week, not much, just 5mins pullback trades, next week has alot of fundamentals, so trading the smaller timeframes would be good, carrying positions may be harder.

with so much fundamentals ping ponging the markets around, monday and tuesdays are the big wildcard days.

wednesday has fomc, so expect stop hunts going into it
thurdays there is mpc for gbp, so once its released, the volatility will be around so good for small tf trading, so select pairs will be eurgbp,usdgbp,gbpjpy.
friday is pretty tame, but numbers could be rendered useless by the fundamentals.

essentially the volatility will show the market's tilt and position, and the strong points (S&R which the market shows developing after the news is released) that market is willing to hold, then we know how market feels about the position, next is just looking for entries and managing the trades.

key is to spot for momentum (pullback entries, but don't have to be exact, as long as its close enough but not too close to be jumping the gun)
or fade offs (reversal entries)
no overstaying of bad positions, momentum may be trend changing, so being extra nimble is prefered.
  • #567
  • Mar 18, 2018 12:22am Mar 18, 2018 12:22am
There's G20 meetings on Mon and Tues if I recall right....could affect as well if they just so happen to mention anything...being nimble is definitely the theme for this week.
  • #568
  • Mar 18, 2018 7:00am Mar 18, 2018 7:00am
Quoting MoneyFocus
There's G20 meetings on Mon and Tues if I recall right....could affect as well if they just so happen to mention anything...being nimble is definitely the theme for this week.
yep, those 2 are the wildcards and with HFT now so prevalent, volatility may be exagerated abit more since hft are all leapfrogging orderflow.
  • #569
  • Mar 18, 2018 7:35am Mar 18, 2018 7:35am
One of my favs last time...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq-aTe77bkA
  • #570
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:01am Mar 19, 2018 7:01am
Quoting MoneyFocus
One of my favs last time... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq-aTe77bkA

Good moves on EUR and gbp Vs the dollar, usdjpy moving up so suspect it's risk on risk off fundamentals given by g20

People call gbpjpy the dragon and is a risk on risk off indicator for money flows.
  • #571
  • Edited 11:58pm Mar 19, 2018 11:43pm | Edited 11:58pm
Interesting paper.

Perhaps part of what the butterfly's mo can be gleaned from here.

In truth, from what I understand, the butterfly is based on tuning the portfolio sensitivities to certain currencies, and eliminating sentitivities to others or exposing more dependent on current market conditions.

Similarly, what professional portfolio managers attempt to do is to engineer portfolio sensitivities to certain aspects of the market, say alpha, and perhaps attempt to neutralise say, beta risk, or currency risk if the assets cross geographic barriers.

Hence it's all about adjusting for portfolio sensitivities.

Similar to the 3 legged animal where you can adjust on the fly for exposure to 1 of the 3 currencies in the 3 pairs.

Hence it can attempt to hedge out risk which the portfolio manager did not intend to be exposed to.

Then of course, the natural question to ask is, can this be employed with a current mo? Sure

This has to do with employment of asset correlations and hence risk sensitivities, and from this we could in fact use it with perhaps the turtle rules, except added with some extra form of discretion and use the correlations to adjust for periods of choppy environment which the turtle rules are underperforming. So theoretically, by employing correlations like this, the turtle rules portfolio may in fact survive choppy environment better, because it now employs spreading to handle such environment.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 0403_Alpha_and_Beta_In_Market_Neutral_0.pdf   175 KB | 499 downloads
  • #572
  • Mar 21, 2018 12:27am Mar 21, 2018 12:27am
Quoting CookieMonsta
https://blufx.co.uk I'm have been looking at this remote proprietary trading firm ( or maybe I'm too liberal with this term), seems like it requires you to pay per month 99 either EUR or pound to access an account of 25000 I was looking around to see if there are remote proprietary firm's to join. But am unsure. The question is, are they internally offsetting their trades somehow? Because they said all strategies welcomed, and 25000 per trader, profit split 50%, their money so you are not liable for the loss.( Big question mark how? Because...
lots of these around, don't.

the is more big fish one like zulutrade, fundseeder etc. but it all boils down to drawdown% and profit% ie sharpe ratio over years. Usually DD <5% is the norm, so lots of the trade are short duration kind, think hourly impulses. Quite a bit of automated systems can be found, but some old school too. fundseeder is a project by that market wizards guy, he is a IT fellow I am sure you are aware of Jack. Quite a few biggies account(1mio up) there(fundseeder).

just my 2 cents friend!

cheers!
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #573
  • Mar 21, 2018 12:34am Mar 21, 2018 12:34am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} lots of these around, don't. the is more big fish one like zulutrade, fundseeder etc. but it all boils down to drawdown% and profit% ie sharpe ratio over years. Usually DD <5% is the norm, so lots of the trade are short duration kind, think hourly impulses. Quite a bit of automated systems can be found, but some old school too. fundseeder is a project by that market wizards guy, he is a IT fellow I am sure you are aware of Jack. Quite a few biggies account(1mio up) there(fundseeder). just my 2 cents friend! cheers!
Hi ray,

Thanks for the heads up, I did check out fundseeders, unfortunately, their requirement seems to be against the taf mo of no stoploss, hence it may require alternative mo which can employ stoploss, however, as fti has mentioned regarding stoploss placement on lower tf, hence I decided to give it a miss.
  • #574
  • Mar 21, 2018 2:26am Mar 21, 2018 2:26am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi ray, Thanks for the heads up, I did check out fundseeders, unfortunately, their requirement seems to be against the taf mo of no stoploss, hence it may require alternative mo which can employ stoploss, however, as fti has mentioned regarding stoploss placement on lower tf, hence I decided to give it a miss.
thing with stop loss with a % of cap is relative to capital sizing as the figure move inversely depending on volume.. it can be deployed, just with a much larger cap.

good luck
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #575
  • Mar 21, 2018 3:02am Mar 21, 2018 3:02am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} thing with stop loss with a % of cap is relative to capital sizing as the figure move inversely depending on volume.. it can be deployed, just with a much larger cap. good luck
Hi ray,

I find that h4 and above are usually more cleaner in terms of price action as it is trading into the macro timeframes, inline with daily. Hence it is because of this there may be fundamentals supporting the move too, which we may or may not know of but price action indicates trend.

And because it takes significantly more money to sweep stops and push price on higher tf and macro tf, it is usually abit safer to use h4 or D1 for stoploss after the stophunting have occurred. For 5mins charts, stops may have a higher chance to be taken out if in a choppy terrain.
  • #576
  • Mar 21, 2018 3:33am Mar 21, 2018 3:33am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi ray, I find that h4 and above are usually more cleaner in terms of price action as it is trading into the macro timeframes, inline with daily. Hence it is because of this there may be fundamentals supporting the move too, which we may or may not know of but price action indicates trend. And because it takes significantly more money to sweep stops and push price on higher tf and macro tf, it is usually abit safer to use h4 or D1 for stoploss after the stophunting have occurred. For 5mins charts, stops may have a higher chance to be taken...
hey cookie

it depends imo, on the higher TF, there are the macro fundies and longer time peeps(corps etc). and i seen it become erratic or strange too.. it looks cleaner, but the best charts in my preference is clean trending one, and i found those to have a lack of reasoning.. like xxx/cad recently and xxx/jpy last year... good indications can be found when the COT turns which shows a reflection of interest.. then again there is the question of how reliable is the data... etc etc.. cause the thinking might be why the #$@)( is it trending.. and by the time the reason comes, it goes 300+ pips or move past the yearly % and becomes a trend...

also, if we were to play out strategies on the d1 up and deal with the bigger picture, no. of pips count will not look nice, if probability and chance factor dont favor the tester at start.. in a wide enough play, the statistic from my trials did not look nice, but hey dont take my word for it.. test it out..
I think Lusan did something similar and traded on the higher TF and found to be quite good..
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #577
  • Mar 21, 2018 4:21am Mar 21, 2018 4:21am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} hey cookie it depends imo, on the higher TF, there are the macro fundies and longer time peeps(corps etc). and i seen it become erratic or strange too.. it looks cleaner, but the best charts in my preference is clean trending one, and i found those to have a lack of reasoning.. like xxx/cad recently and xxx/jpy last year... good indications can be found when the COT turns which shows a reflection of interest.. then again there is the question of how reliable is the data... etc etc.. cause the thinking might be why the #$@)( is it trending.....
Hi ray,

Well those that lack reasoning are the best charts, because those who don't understand and hold on to losses will cause it to go further and many will only follow on too late. Future orderflow.

Those on higher tf if they trend, can simply be pyramided with a 1 1 1 linear skew which can be very profitable of used well, essentially to incorporate the attack mo with stops into the D1 tf.

Well, I did have some nice trades on higher tf, just now tuning for performance.

Been using the adx to study trends, but it's discretionary, so nothing rigid, seems ok, had afew trades which ride quite well. So been doing more testing on a live account marked 1% risk, seems like 1 winner can easily pay for 2 to 3 losers. However, opportunity loss while waiting for higher tf bus ride is usually the major reason people don't engage in it.

So actually can just do higher tf trading to grow account and taf mo for lower tf charts.
  • #578
  • Mar 21, 2018 9:41am Mar 21, 2018 9:41am
As per the adx method, for swing trading the markets on daily timeframe, additional correlation strategies can be put in as well.

So currently, the full method is as per following, the entire portfolio can only have 1% risk per positions, and a max of 4 position. And the 4 positions will have to be analysed for their correlations. Say I cannot be long eurusd and gbpusd at the same time, as that would imply my major correlation is from USD, and hence it is as good as using about 2x more leverage. Opposites correlations or low correlations pairs are allowed.

This is in conjunction with the idea from Anton Kreills YouTube videos regarding long short books and from the above pdf regarding long short book.

The main parts used were the risk control portion as well as the correlation portions. Which is more akin to portfolio volatility engineering.

Hence about 4% of book risk is allowed at anytime, the rest of currency reserves can be allocated for linear 1 1 1 attack skew with stops trailed for profit protection in a strongly trending market. Since additional positions should be added with reduced overall risk from floating profits, it can be managed with some small leverage with little to no loss, hence the attack function is to skew reward Vs risk rather than to rely on market volatility to give extra reward, the attack itself is manufacturing a strong risk reward ratio.

Inverse correlations can be used to butterfly the book taking USD as the main currency. But implication would be book would be susceptible to cross tearing hence, the max of 1% risk on each position. It essentially means being a long straddle on the dollar.

Non correlation would be akin to diversification while inverse correlation is akin to long shorts.
  • #579
  • Mar 23, 2018 6:37am Mar 23, 2018 6:37am
The usage of correlations, those that are 0.5 to 0.9 and -0.5 to -0.9 are good for exploiting their use for long short books, it can't be 1 or -1 as it's going to be as good has flat.

While those from -0.5 to 0.5 are good for diversification, usually the closer it is to 0 the better.
  • #580
  • Mar 27, 2018 10:16pm Mar 27, 2018 10:16pm
After testing out the Adx mo for 2 weeks, it seems to be valid, except in cases where market chops were extreme, however, it seems employing correlations to handle the chop itself seems to work fairly well, hence, the feel the trend aspect or rather, feel the chop aspect is key, as knowing when to put on the correlation trades and when to let the trend ride, can help with the profitability of the book. Seems like on average the risk reward is at least 1 to 2, accuracy is fairly ok but has room for improvement, main downside is, this method will make people too used to trading lower tf(myself mainly) have to work on discipline to wait for the right time to enter and wait for the right time to exit.

However, seems this higher timeframe mo has a good lead into being able to work in most terrains.

I guess my plan to do 2 mo can work.
0 traders viewing now