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The end of "science" trading strategy

  • #421
  • Mar 20, 2018 3:11pm Mar 20, 2018 3:11pm
Quoting turnip15
Just trade price -support and resistance. No need for all this elaborate Bollox you post here. Trade using price only.
Now that sounds logical ... but it's actually far more complicated than it sounds. Below is a chart of what may be the easiest to trade pair on the planet, BTCUSD because it has moved so directionally for so long. "Trade price support and resistance" doesn't exactly say how you'd decide WHEN to do that.

Do you trade at the moment price hits an S/R line ... do you wait for it to bounce off the S/R line, if you wait for a bounce, how many candles do you use to confirm the bounce?

I ask these questions because even in a pair that is moving with insane amounts of directionality there are points when "just trade S/R" breaks down.

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Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #422
  • Mar 20, 2018 3:12pm Mar 20, 2018 3:12pm
Quoting turnip15
Just trade price -support and resistance. No need for all this elaborate Bollox you post here. Trade using price only.
start new thread, prove what you say! anybody could mouth in less than 1 second with "Just trade price -support and resistance"

do you think others trade sugar, not price!

Quote
I ask these questions because even in a pair that is moving with insane amounts of directionality there are points when "just trade S/R" breaks down.
Yes, it ends up with the famous slogan "fifty fifty" -- equal probaility

I guess he did not read the thread--we post many charts on R/S basis with the great solution of failing S/R. e.u. through RecZone.
Forex Philosopher
  • #423
  • Mar 20, 2018 5:21pm Mar 20, 2018 5:21pm
OVERSOLD ON CHART. (from main post)

CORRECTION: IT SHOULD BE OVERBOUGHT

by common sense:
above 70 overBuy/overbought
below 30 overSell/oversold

picture below was just for educational purposes, but we should not increment n until it cross 60 again (or 40 for other-side)
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Forex Philosopher
  • #424
  • Mar 20, 2018 6:37pm Mar 20, 2018 6:37pm
is there any indicator show n-degree of overbought or oversold??
ans: Yes
there are many indicators, not only one!

First: MACD on extreme case.
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Forex Philosopher
  • #425
  • Mar 20, 2018 6:43pm Mar 20, 2018 6:43pm
Quote
First: MACD on extreme case.
second: RSI
3rd: AO
4th: BolingerBand
5th: Envelope(will be associated with sharp channels)
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Forex Philosopher
  • #426
  • Mar 20, 2018 6:45pm Mar 20, 2018 6:45pm
Attached Image


NZDCAD, n=4??? what is its purport??
Forex Philosopher
  • #427
  • Mar 20, 2018 6:52pm Mar 20, 2018 6:52pm
Quote
NZDCAD, n=4??? what is its purport??
extreme mean opposite cross b/w macd line and signal line. (not direct cross)

direct is the opposite of opposite

Direct:
1) if both above 0-line, signal line cross macd line down
2) if both below 0-line, signal line cross macd line up

opposite:
1) if both above 0-line, signal line cross macd line up
2) if both below 0-line, signal line cross macd line down

look:
Forex Philosopher
  • #428
  • Mar 20, 2018 6:57pm Mar 20, 2018 6:57pm
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Forex Philosopher
  • #429
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:00pm Mar 20, 2018 7:00pm
there are 4 red crosses, therefore, overbought degree n =4
conclusion: you had better place SELL order.
just be cautious, there is no other stronger technical reason. for example: break out.
Forex Philosopher
  • #430
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:04pm Mar 20, 2018 7:04pm
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Forex Philosopher
  • #431
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:11pm Mar 20, 2018 7:11pm
Is MACD "priori" or "posteriori" to prices??
ans: absolutely posteriori .
so when signal cross main up, when both above zero, it takes place after price moves up.
Forex Philosopher
  • #432
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:32pm Mar 20, 2018 9:32pm
update of 12th chance:
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Forex Philosopher
  • #433
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:36pm Mar 20, 2018 9:36pm
Quoting Master-Mind
Is MACD "priori" or "posteriori" to prices?? ans: absolutely posteriori . so when signal cross main up, when both above zero, it takes place after price moves up.
=
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Forex Philosopher
  • #434
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:42pm Mar 20, 2018 9:42pm
Running a bit risky. Daily target 5 percent.
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https://tracking.avapartner.com/_RwAAA
  • #435
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:46pm Mar 20, 2018 9:46pm
Quote
from post#276:

Lots =(p/100)*B/XXXDDD ------------------ rule-1

for MUDARRAJ we will use p=0.01% for each pair;
for RecZone we will use p=0.1%;
for overbough/oversold we will use p=0.20%
for sharp channels we will use p=0.30%
Ask your self:
Is it reasonable or preposterous??

Reasonable: our brains accept
Preposterous: our brains reject
Forex Philosopher
  • #436
  • Edited 10:00pm Mar 20, 2018 9:48pm | Edited 10:00pm
Quoting akkus45
Running a bit risky. Daily target 5 percent.
Again: attach it under your name, FF trading explorer.
Forex Philosopher
  • #437
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:50pm Mar 20, 2018 9:50pm
Quoting Master-Mind
update of 12th chance: {image}
Can You explain job on the chart shortly please? Whats expert will allow on the chart with wich settings? Regard.
https://tracking.avapartner.com/_RwAAA
  • #438
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:56pm Mar 20, 2018 9:56pm
Quoting akkus45
{quote} Can You explain job on the chart shortly please? Whats expert will allow on the chart with wich settings? Regard.
it was explained in detail with extensive examples. we spoke too much about recZone, n-value.
i felt many times, many posters here listen to their echoes only, not to the thread main concepts.
Forex Philosopher
  • #439
  • Mar 20, 2018 10:19pm Mar 20, 2018 10:19pm
akkus45 (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=10892405#post10892405)
سأعيدها للمرة الأخيرة لأنك عزيز على القلب
دائما اخي نتحرى نقاط صحيحة
نحن سلفا لانعلم هل السعر سيرتد من هذه النقطة او سيمر عليها عدة مرات
يهمنا قيمة ن تكون أقل شيء ممكن
لذا نتحرى النقاط الفنية
يعني دعم او مقاومة او حد ترند او نقطة ذيل الخ

للكندي ين
حددنا سلفا نقطة عبارة عن قاع سابق بازر--- من تشارت هذا الزوج او من خلال باسل تكتشفها بسهولة لذا وضعنا عندها امر شراء انتظار بوقف ر10 نقاط
اذا تم ضرب الوقف يدخل بيع عند 80.45 وبوقف 10 نقاط--قيمة ن اصبحت تساوي 2
لو عاد للاعلى وضرب وقف يدخل شراء وهكذا ستكون الخسارة 20 نقطة
في لحظة معينة حسب توقيعك سيذهب السعر في اتجاه واحد
توقيعك: If market don't want to go to your direction, you go on market's direction

ميزة الدعوم والمقاومات انك تتوقع قيمة ن اقل شيء ممكن
في مثال الكندي ين انت رأيت لم يعكس--نجح من اول مرة -- نجح من عند قيمة ن =1

في رأس الموضوع ذكرنا ان المفهوم التقليدي للمضاعفات مدمر للحسابات واننا وجدنا افضل طريقة للريكفري زووووون وهو دون مضاعفات

افترض الكندي ين من سوء الحظ 7 مرات ضرب الوقف
الخسارة ستكون 70 نقطة
المرة الثامنة التي نجحت لو حققت 70 نقطة او اكثر نكون دخلنا في الربح
Forex Philosopher
  • #440
  • Mar 20, 2018 10:29pm Mar 20, 2018 10:29pm
There as an ample time to stiudy this chance well!
16th chance: GBPNZD (supersede/cancel any previous chance about this pair)
1.9842
-/+ 10 PIPS

we hope n as minimal as possible,
if n=8, means losses will be (n-1)*20 = 140 pips.
so, if our target is 300 pips: net profit will be 300-140 = 160 pips.
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Forex Philosopher
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