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Elliot Wave Analysis

  • #141
  • Mar 18, 2018 6:24am Mar 18, 2018 6:24am
2 fundamental news that i am looking at are the one in the picture. (for those who don't care much about news.)

on Tuesday, there is monetary policy meeting minutes on AUD and
on Wednesday, there is FOMC meeting minutes and also FED rate decision.

It is expected for FED to raise rates as shown in the picture from 1.5 to 1.75.
Although all the bearishness in the market on other major currencies against the USD could be the pricing in of this rate rise but i am still expecting some major impact on the rest of the major currencies especially USD/JPY which gets affected the most during major news of USD. I will be putting a chart up on USD/JPY soon.
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  • #142
  • Mar 18, 2018 6:30am Mar 18, 2018 6:30am
Since i expect the usd is on it's 2nd corrective wave up. here's my view on usd/jpy

Higher timeframe.
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  • #143
  • Mar 18, 2018 6:45am Mar 18, 2018 6:45am
My view of Short term oil :
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  • #144
  • Mar 18, 2018 7:04am Mar 18, 2018 7:04am
short term oil alternate count. (not very confident).
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  • #145
  • Mar 18, 2018 9:31pm Mar 18, 2018 9:31pm
Quoting stringfx
usd index is still in a corrective major wave 2 up is what i believe therefore, eur/usd, nzd/usd and aud/usd will resume it's down trend. usd/chf and usd/cad will resume it's uptrend. iam not sure about gbp/usd until now. In all these pairs, my favorite is the usd/cad for the week as most of the other currencies has rallied against the usd but the cad remains down. GBP seems the most powerful of these currencies for the week, so a gbp/cad would have been the best trade. since this pair has a high spread rate and is quite an exotic pair, i don't...
Hello stringfx,
After completing the wave 3, what is your expectation of USDCAD 4th wave correction ?
I assume, it will retrace a minimum 38.2% of wave 3. i.e. 1.28xx area. Please comment on this.

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...2&d=1521053592
  • #146
  • Mar 19, 2018 1:35am Mar 19, 2018 1:35am
Quoting mavilakandy
{quote} Hello stringfx, After completing the wave 3, what is your expectation of USDCAD 4th wave correction ? I assume, it will retrace a minimum 38.2% of wave 3. i.e. 1.28xx area. Please comment on this. {image}
Sorry iam not in front of my system..so I cannot post a chart. Yes it will retrace to 38.2 but you have to worry about higher time frame waves also.. so it's better not to sell this pair as I have requested earlier. Wait until fomc rate and minutes.
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  • #147
  • Mar 19, 2018 2:14am Mar 19, 2018 2:14am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Sorry iam not in front of my system..so I cannot post a chart. Yes it will retrace to 38.2 but you have to worry about higher time frame waves also.. so it's better not to sell this pair as I have requested earlier. Wait until fomc rate and minutes.
Thanks for the explanations.
  • #148
  • Mar 19, 2018 3:19am Mar 19, 2018 3:19am
Quoting mavilakandy
{quote} Thanks for the explanations.
If you check my earlier short term and long term chart you will get the picture.

Here's what i think. Price might fall on a 4th wave in an irregular manner but i wouldn't suggest to sell as it might spike up in this wave in a similar way as well which is why it's called an account killer. Ideally wait for wave 4 to finish and buy.. most probably it might happen after FOMC rate decision. until then retail traders will be lured into making mistakes. if you are desperate, scalp a few pips using bollinger bands and rsi on 5 minute chart. sell when rsi is above 70 and touching bollinger bands upper band. Keep tight stop losses and TP.

Here is a chart on 4hr.
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  • #149
  • Mar 19, 2018 3:19am Mar 19, 2018 3:19am
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  • #150
  • Mar 19, 2018 3:50am Mar 19, 2018 3:50am
Quoting stringfx
{quote} If you check my earlier short term and long term chart you will get the picture. Here's what i think. Price might fall on a 4th wave in an irregular manner but i wouldn't suggest to sell as it might spike up in this wave in a similar way as well which is why it's called an account killer. Ideally wait for wave 4 to finish and buy.. most probably it might happen after FOMC rate decision. until then retail traders will be lured into making mistakes. if you are desperate, scalp a few pips using bollinger bands and rsi on 5 minute chart. sell...
stringfx, thank you very much.
  • #151
  • Mar 19, 2018 5:33am Mar 19, 2018 5:33am
The actual Nifty count with 60 min data --> for the collection of real Elliott count examples.

Sixer
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  • #152
  • Edited 7:34am Mar 19, 2018 6:16am | Edited 7:34am
I will be removing my trade explorer as my broker (pepperstone) expires demo account in a month. It stopped functioning from this morning. will be creating another with Oanda and continuing the TE. Pepperstone did not consider my request even after mailing them as they said the demo account is already deleted from their system and they cannot do anything about it. Rather unfortunate!


Oanda gives only 1 million accounts, so i am going with IC markets AUS
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  • #153
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:53am Mar 19, 2018 7:53am
Quoting Sixer
The actual Nifty count with 60 min data --> for the collection of real Elliott count examples. Sixer {image} {image}
Well defined.
Thanks
  • #154
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:05am Mar 20, 2018 7:05am
Eur/usd seems to be selling nicely. Here is a temporary stop at 61.8. Might go up for a bit and should get sold again . Just waiting for the right moment.
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  • #155
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:19am Mar 20, 2018 7:19am
Daily chart of usd/chf

Expecting completion of wave 4 up and then down for wave 5.
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  • #156
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:26am Mar 20, 2018 7:26am
short term oil is going well according to the charts posted earlier.
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  • #157
  • Mar 20, 2018 11:22am Mar 20, 2018 11:22am
Short term oil has already reached 161.8 which is probably end of wave 3. Now we can expect a retrace to a minimum usual 38.2% for the 4th wave and then a rally to fifth wave. here are a couple of charts.
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  • #158
  • Mar 20, 2018 11:33am Mar 20, 2018 11:33am
Quoting stringfx
Short term oil has already reached 161.8 which is probably end of wave 3. Now we can expect a retrace to a minimum usual 38.2% for the 4th wave and then a rally to fifth wave. here are a couple of charts. {image} {image}
According to you, 4th wave is an 'account killer'. So,better not to deal with it during 4th wave, especially oil and gold. Isn't it ?
  • #159
  • Mar 20, 2018 11:38am Mar 20, 2018 11:38am
Quoting mavilakandy
{quote} According to you, 4th wave is an 'account killer'. So,better not to deal with it during 4th wave, especially oil and gold. Isn't it ?
Absolutely!!!!! wait for a breakout from the high of the third wave and let it go to 61.8% of the entire 1-4 waves. i will update the charts once that is accomplished.
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  • #160
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:53pm Mar 20, 2018 9:53pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Absolutely!!!!! wait for a breakout from the high of the third wave and let it go to 61.8% of the entire 1-4 waves. i will update the charts once that is accomplished.
Thanks stringfx. It is interesting.
Could you please make your analysis for GBPNZD ? It seems a bit difficult case, for daily chart, from 1st December.
Thanks
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